Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Excuse my ignorance but did Brucie not pull a sickie in the early rounds last "series"?

Only turns up for the big gigs these days

No application, he'll never make it to the top.

Was just thinking about you last night, not seen you for a few days, hope all is well at home, and Mum is bearing up.

Tbf he has earned a few sickies

Yes been a testing week not had anytime to get online really seems thread has been quiet

[Tal]

He has it in his contract that he gets a few weekends off during the series (I have heard this year it is 3). With the best will in the world, he's chugging on well for a man of his vintage and I expect the Saturday show plus results is a full on experience.

I think 2 hours is pushing it for most people's tastes, to be completely honest.

Don't expect much of Fiona Fullarton tonight. I've heard she's having trouble with the Cha Cha, although I really don't see thatbeing critical to her staying in the competition. Getting a bad dance out of the way early is sometimes a positive.

[Tal]

Good to see you back, horsey. Is Al Kazeem underrated by the market? Rather, is the market overreacting to the draw? He's a better horse than those in its company at the >16/1 end of the market. Wasn't long ago that it was gobbling up group ones.

[horseplayer]

I do not have a view on the race really Tal but i was just about to post some bits about the draw

Apologies if this has been discussed here are some stats that may or may not be of use.

2000-2012: females 62.2% rivals btn; males 47.0%: 3yo 52.5%; 4yo 48.9%; 5yo+ 46.3%: stalls 1-4 54.0%; 5-8 47.0%9-12 49.0%; 13-16 48.0%; 17-20 55.0% (small sample for that last one).

And i loved these quotes from the very watchable Head-Maarek

"The draw is no problem," said the Chantilly trainer.

"There are good horses everywhere and there are bad horses everywhere, the best horse will win.

"At this distance all the talk about the draw is crazy. I could understand it if the race was over a mile at Longchamp but over 2,400 metres? Give me a break.

"My filly needs to be behind horses anyway, that is how she runs. The best horse will win, we won't use the draw as an excuse.

"In our case it could have been worse if we were drawn on the inside anyway because of her style. As long as there is pace in the race there should be no problems and there usually is when the foreign horses run.

"The new jockey will make no difference to the filly but it does to Frankie. It is unfortunate that he got a bad injury doing his job.

"Jarnet knows her well, he rode all the time in the beginning.

"The best horse will win, I'm sure of that."

She may be a little biased after this (her winner in 1979 from draw 17)

http://www.ina.fr/video/CAB79016630

[horseplayer]

These lads are warming up again after last year



be more like this again on Sunday




Love the way the big lad changes into the correct silks before the trial race

[tikay]

I do not have a view on the race really Tal but i was just about to post some bits about the draw

Apologies if this has been discussed here are some stats that may or may not be of use.

2000-2012: females 62.2% rivals btn; males 47.0%: 3yo 52.5%; 4yo 48.9%; 5yo+ 46.3%: stalls 1-4 54.0%; 5-8 47.0%9-12 49.0%; 13-16 48.0%; 17-20 55.0% (small sample for that last one).

And i loved these quotes from the very watchable Head-Maarek

"The draw is no problem," said the Chantilly trainer.

"There are good horses everywhere and there are bad horses everywhere, the best horse will win.

"At this distance all the talk about the draw is crazy. I could understand it if the race was over a mile at Longchamp but over 2,400 metres? Give me a break.

"My filly needs to be behind horses anyway, that is how she runs. The best horse will win, we won't use the draw as an excuse.

"In our case it could have been worse if we were drawn on the inside anyway because of her style. As long as there is pace in the race there should be no problems and there usually is when the foreign horses run.

"The new jockey will make no difference to the filly but it does to Frankie. It is unfortunate that he got a bad injury doing his job.

"Jarnet knows her well, he rode all the time in the beginning.

"The best horse will win, I'm sure of that."

She may be a little biased after this (her winner in 1979 from draw 17)

http://www.ina.fr/video/CAB79016630

I don't understand those "draw" %'s horsey, they all seem too high. What am I missing?

[tikay]

Excuse my ignorance but did Brucie not pull a sickie in the early rounds last "series"?

Only turns up for the big gigs these days

No application, he'll never make it to the top.

Was just thinking about you last night, not seen you for a few days, hope all is well at home, and Mum is bearing up.

Tbf he has earned a few sickies

Yes been a testing week not had anytime to get online really seems thread has been quiet

Yes, very quiet this week, but any thread always needs a bit of "driving", & many of us have had very busy week one way & another, but at least in my case, & Tighty, it's just work, & not family illness. 

I know Mum is not so well, but you are doing all you can.

[tikay]

City's performance at the Etihad since the end of 2010 has been pretty sensational really. I've just read a stat that they have only lost twice  in the League in the last 50 odd games which is equivalent to 3 seasons.

Whilst their CL league has been poor they are still unbeaten in the 6 home games they have played.

So, strikes me there is real value on the home win here.  Likewise the price on Bayern is short (2.3ish last time I looked) and represents a good lay as an alternative to cover the draw.

Hi Archer,

Sorry I missed this on Tuesday, been a bit busy, but only your 2nd Post on blonde, & first on Fred, & I missed it, sorry.

If I had seen it, I'd have got on, as your "New to Fred" intro, but that's how good I run, City got a proper whopping!

Hang around man, Post more, we need new blood all the time, & all opinions help.

[horseplayer]

I do not have a view on the race really Tal but i was just about to post some bits about the draw

Apologies if this has been discussed here are some stats that may or may not be of use.

2000-2012: females 62.2% rivals btn; males 47.0%: 3yo 52.5%; 4yo 48.9%; 5yo+ 46.3%: stalls 1-4 54.0%; 5-8 47.0%9-12 49.0%; 13-16 48.0%; 17-20 55.0% (small sample for that last one).

And i loved these quotes from the very watchable Head-Maarek

"The draw is no problem," said the Chantilly trainer.

"There are good horses everywhere and there are bad horses everywhere, the best horse will win.

"At this distance all the talk about the draw is crazy. I could understand it if the race was over a mile at Longchamp but over 2,400 metres? Give me a break.

"My filly needs to be behind horses anyway, that is how she runs. The best horse will win, we won't use the draw as an excuse.

"In our case it could have been worse if we were drawn on the inside anyway because of her style. As long as there is pace in the race there should be no problems and there usually is when the foreign horses run.

"The new jockey will make no difference to the filly but it does to Frankie. It is unfortunate that he got a bad injury doing his job.

"Jarnet knows her well, he rode all the time in the beginning.

"The best horse will win, I'm sure of that."

She may be a little biased after this (her winner in 1979 from draw 17)

http://www.ina.fr/video/CAB79016630

I don't understand those "draw" %'s horsey, they all seem too high. What am I missing?

It is in a strange format of "rivals" beaten, i have tried to get the a/e stats

from what i have read the stats at least for recent years suggest the draw is not really a big factor.

Having had a fair look this morning personally a bigger factor for me would be the pace, there does not appear to be hardly any especially compared to usual.

[tikay]

I think we should also have Lewis onside in the Darts @ 10/1 with Boyles for the Grand Prix.
Stand out price and the fallback of stake returned if Mvg wins(obv Fred would need someone else to place this).
Lewis is in good form and has a good draw.
Recommend £20

I notice Boyles are going first 4 1/4odds in tomorrows player championship 9, hopefully more will follow suit as I lost count of the Players I had at big prices falling at the final hurdle.

Anyone got any suggestions for this, please?

Is it a short format 2 day thing?

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/weekend-darts-events/players-championship-9/winner

I like Wayne Jones at 200/1, with BMU so 1/2 first 2 rather than 1/4 first 4. No form for well over a year but has reached the semi finals of his last two tournaments.

MVG has reached the semis or better in 14 of 21 Non tv tournaments this year winning 9 of them. Recent form not so great but 4/1 can't be bad.

It's two separate one day tournaments.

Sorry Bazza, am still trying to get my head round this.

Atre we trying to bet on Players Championship # 9, or #10?

I've found the prices for # 10, but is that what you mean?

[tikay]

I think we should also have Lewis onside in the Darts @ 10/1 with Boyles for the Grand Prix.
Stand out price and the fallback of stake returned if Mvg wins(obv Fred would need someone else to place this).
Lewis is in good form and has a good draw.
Recommend £20

I notice Boyles are going first 4 1/4odds in tomorrows player championship 9, hopefully more will follow suit as I lost count of the Players I had at big prices falling at the final hurdle.

Anyone got any suggestions for this, please?

Is it a short format 2 day thing?

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/weekend-darts-events/players-championship-9/winner

I like Wayne Jones at 200/1, with BMU so 1/2 first 2 rather than 1/4 first 4. No form for well over a year but has reached the semi finals of his last two tournaments.

MVG has reached the semis or better in 14 of 21 Non tv tournaments this year winning 9 of them. Recent form not so great but 4/1 can't be bad.

It's two separate one day tournaments.

Sorry Bazza, am still trying to get my head round this.

Atre we trying to bet on Players Championship # 9, or #10?

I've found the prices for # 10, but is that what you mean?

Yo Bazza, forget my previous, we have got on, rightly or wrongly!

2 BETS PLACED

[tikay]

Am trying to summarise today's "one off" action, excluding Season stuff. Not much so far, but a winner or two will do us nicely.

Think this is about it.

Horse Racing

£25 @ 9/4, Wm Hill, Caspar Netscher, 2.50 Redcar. £25 FREE BET if 2nd.

£5 @ 121/1, BetVictor, Andy Reid, FGS, Brighton v Nott'm Forest


Silly Cricket

£24 @ 13/8, BetFred, Trinidad & Tobago to beat the Little Mumbai Indians

The cricket starts at 2.30pm, UK, I think.

[horseplayer]

In  the fear spreadsheet fans may combust

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXtvLAX7HejdDZwUXpLMngzNGdVbkkxV1lVbHoyTGc&usp=sharing#gid=0


every runner since 1984-2012

all the draw stats there

[tikay]

In  the fear spreadsheet fans may combust

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXtvLAX7HejdDZwUXpLMngzNGdVbkkxV1lVbHoyTGc&usp=sharing#gid=0


every runner since 1984-2012

all the draw stats there

We'll never see Tighty again......

[tikay]

Reportedly the Ascot going today is "soft", & there are some juicy 5f races.

Any particular draw bias in these?