Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Reportedly the Ascot going today is "soft", & there are some juicy 5f races.

Any particular draw bias in these?

it seemed to be lowish yesterday but draw bias is usually more useful in handicaps than stakes races

Gotcha, thanks.

Am quite surprised it is soft, been fairly dry here since yesterday morning.

Going now changed to " good to soft", as expected.

[Ant040689]

If you are around Tikay, I think the great bet in the Cray Wanderers game is the double chance Cray/draw @8/5 for maybe £20 with either Paddy Power. The value there is outrageous.

Also I didn't notice there was a double chance market available on the game and would have proposed this from the start had I known

The oppo in met police haven't won away from home in four games losing two, drawing two and have only scored 8 goals in all of their 10 games.

Think it is a stonking bet. Annoyingly too I had a bet at 13/10 with Paddy at midday, and after that happens they go out to 8/5, shocking.

O well, I think you would miss a trick here Tikay not going for the double chance.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/cray-wanderers-v-met-police/double-chance

[Ant040689]

http://www.newsshopper.co.uk/sport/10712775.O_Connor_breaks_Cray_s_hearts_with_late_Bromley_winner/

News report, too, to confirm their 8 changes, and unlucky result against Bromley.

[doubleup]

Reportedly the Ascot going today is "soft", & there are some juicy 5f races.

Any particular draw bias in these?

it seemed to be lowish yesterday but draw bias is usually more useful in handicaps than stakes races

Gotcha, thanks.

Am quite surprised it is soft, been fairly dry here since yesterday morning.

Going now changed to " good to soft", as expected.

def seems to be a lowish bias - the low horses just weren't good enough in the first but still filled 3-6

The 3.50 interesting from the draw perspective - Anaconda at 28-1 with BMU and drawn at 8 seems v good value compared with BF recommend £10 ew

[Ant040689]

for more on Met Police they have 3 new signings available, but two injuries to contend with too.

[Longy]

I have a free Saturday evening to some this would be indicative of a lonely sad life with nothing better to do. I am just excited a get to watch a full slate of College football games!

Freds sweats today are:

Oregon @ Colorado (+39) 11pm GMT. Yep the Ducks are again a massive favourite, the schedule has come out that they get the 2 weakest PAC12 teams to start conference play. Another game where we Mariota to look efficient and not get injured he is not getting the Heisman for whipping Colorado. Oregon do tend to be bigger favourites for these games than anyone due to their ability to destroy less talented with their offensive system (speed kills).

Hmm it appears Texas a&m have a bye week, so yeah not many sweats.

[tikay]

Reportedly the Ascot going today is "soft", & there are some juicy 5f races.

Any particular draw bias in these?

it seemed to be lowish yesterday but draw bias is usually more useful in handicaps than stakes races

Gotcha, thanks.

Am quite surprised it is soft, been fairly dry here since yesterday morning.

Going now changed to " good to soft", as expected.

def seems to be a lowish bias - the low horses just weren't good enough in the first but still filled 3-6

The 3.50 interesting from the draw perspective - Anaconda at 28-1 with BMU and drawn at 8 seems v good value compared with BF recommend £10 ew

Ticks all the value boxes, thanks.

BET PLACED

[Jamier-Host]

Unless I'm missing something here, BetFred have put up a new coupon which on first look gives far better value than the "Goals Galore" stuff we got involved in last season.

The coupon is called Any Time You Like and gives fixed odds on named players all scoring at any time for trebles and upwards.

By my calculations they are offering 10/1 the treble when the best available prices for the shortest few guys is more like 7/2-4/1.

Could someone please verify this for me, but if all seems above board I'd recommend a tidy treble on Suarez/Villa/Higuain for starters - say £50 @ 10/1 and probably do a massive perm on most of the odds on shots.

[tikay]

Horse Racing

£25 @ 9/4, Wm Hill, Caspar Netscher, 2.50 Redcar. £25 FREE BET if 2nd.


£10 EW @ 28/1, BetVictor, Anaconda, 3.50 Ascot.


Silly Cricket

£24 @ 13/8, BetFred, Trinidad & Tobago to beat the Little Mumbai Indians

The cricket starts at 2.30pm, UK, I think.

Football

£5 @ 12/1, BetVictor, Andy Reid, FGS, Brighton v Nott'm Forest

[tikay]

If you are around Tikay, I think the great bet in the Cray Wanderers game is the double chance Cray/draw @8/5 for maybe £20 with either Paddy Power. The value there is outrageous.

Also I didn't notice there was a double chance market available on the game and would have proposed this from the start had I known

The oppo in met police haven't won away from home in four games losing two, drawing two and have only scored 8 goals in all of their 10 games.

Think it is a stonking bet. Annoyingly too I had a bet at 13/10 with Paddy at midday, and after that happens they go out to 8/5, shocking.

O well, I think you would miss a trick here Tikay not going for the double chance.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/cray-wanderers-v-met-police/double-chance

Am confused now Ant, thought this was the big coup on Cray to win?

Are you now saying Double Chance, Cray/Draw is better?

Cray remain 9/2 Outright, which has drifted since you suggested it.

To be honest, I don't know how to do the maths on a 9/2 Outright to prove the Double Chance odds, but these are two different results completely.

Not knocking, just don't quite understand it, sorry.  Why is the value on that DC "outrageous"?

[BigAdz]

If you are around Tikay, I think the great bet in the Cray Wanderers game is the double chance Cray/draw @8/5 for maybe £20 with either Paddy Power. The value there is outrageous.

Also I didn't notice there was a double chance market available on the game and would have proposed this from the start had I known

The oppo in met police haven't won away from home in four games losing two, drawing two and have only scored 8 goals in all of their 10 games.

Think it is a stonking bet. Annoyingly too I had a bet at 13/10 with Paddy at midday, and after that happens they go out to 8/5, shocking.

O well, I think you would miss a trick here Tikay not going for the double chance.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/cray-wanderers-v-met-police/double-chance

Am confused now Ant, thought this was the big coup on Cray to win?

Are you now saying Double Chance, Cray/Draw is better?

Cray remain 9/2 Outright, which has drifted since you suggested it.

To be honest, I don't know how to do the maths on a 9/2 Outright to prove the Double Chance odds, but these are two different results completely.

Not knocking, just don't quite understand it, sorry. 

+1. Glad someone mentioned this because 20s might be "outrageous value" but 8/5.......head scratching time.

[Longy]

Our boy Marcus Mariota is 5/4 in two places and 2/1 in the third of the three books to update their Heismann Trophy prices. We have a score at 25/1, I personally have quite a bit more. Defo gettin a sweat with this one....

USA Today had a piece on it yesterday, seems about now is when the men get sorted from the boys. They still have last year's winner Manziel, who is available at 10/1, as number one, tho they acknowledge this will change http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/10/01/football-four-week-5-heisman-rankings/2899459/

I asked this before, but does anyone know of some kind of programme that collates all your betting accounts with forward bets etc so u know where they are and where u have money, or do u need a Mere spready for that?

Wow, we have £20 @ 25/1 about a current 5/4 or 2/1 shot? Incred!

Help me though please, because I read the article, & these Stats don't seem to explain why Mariota is the jolly over Manziel. And how come Manziel is 10/1, with such stats? Should we have a saver on Manziel?

Manziel

100-of-140 for 1,489 yards;   

14 touchdowns,

four interceptions;

48 carries for 314 yards, three touchdowns

Mariota

60-of-107 for 1,003 yards;

nine touchdowns,

zero interceptions;

21 carries for 295 yards, five touchdowns

So Manziel's stats are (or seem to me to be) miles better than our chap. The only caveat I saw is that Oregon are so good, they ease off in the 2nd half.

Here are the prices.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/college-football-specials/heisman-trophy/winner

So, if we stand to win £500 for £25 on Mariota, should we also consider a little bet on Manziel @ 10/1?

PS - Thanks for the Update. Exactly what we need on these weirdo funny bets.

The main issue with Manziel is not his play on the field, it is everything else! It is fair to say Johnny is enjoying his new found fame and likes to party, trash talk people on the field, turn up at major sporting events in the best seats while enjoying some alcohol underage. Or signing Autographs for money while being an Amateur sportsman.

The voters for the Heisman in general are old conservative gentlemen who do not like any of this shananigans. On the other hand our boy Mariota is the exact opposite, a very shy modest young man (doesn't even have a facebook account) perfect for representing college football.

Also as you say the stats are lopsided towards Manziel, in the majority of games he is playing all 4 quarters and he is the A&M offence. Whereas Oregon are destroying teams and are mainly a run first offence.

So in my opinion just hold your nerve here, we have stunning value and the winner still could come from anywhere.

[tikay]

Our boy Marcus Mariota is 5/4 in two places and 2/1 in the third of the three books to update their Heismann Trophy prices. We have a score at 25/1, I personally have quite a bit more. Defo gettin a sweat with this one....

USA Today had a piece on it yesterday, seems about now is when the men get sorted from the boys. They still have last year's winner Manziel, who is available at 10/1, as number one, tho they acknowledge this will change http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/10/01/football-four-week-5-heisman-rankings/2899459/

I asked this before, but does anyone know of some kind of programme that collates all your betting accounts with forward bets etc so u know where they are and where u have money, or do u need a Mere spready for that?

Wow, we have £20 @ 25/1 about a current 5/4 or 2/1 shot? Incred!

Help me though please, because I read the article, & these Stats don't seem to explain why Mariota is the jolly over Manziel. And how come Manziel is 10/1, with such stats? Should we have a saver on Manziel?

Manziel

100-of-140 for 1,489 yards;   

14 touchdowns,

four interceptions;

48 carries for 314 yards, three touchdowns

Mariota

60-of-107 for 1,003 yards;

nine touchdowns,

zero interceptions;

21 carries for 295 yards, five touchdowns

So Manziel's stats are (or seem to me to be) miles better than our chap. The only caveat I saw is that Oregon are so good, they ease off in the 2nd half.

Here are the prices.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/college-football-specials/heisman-trophy/winner

So, if we stand to win £500 for £25 on Mariota, should we also consider a little bet on Manziel @ 10/1?

PS - Thanks for the Update. Exactly what we need on these weirdo funny bets.

The main issue with Manziel is not his play on the field, it is everything else! It is fair to say Johnny is enjoying his new found fame and likes to party, trash talk people on the field, turn up at major sporting events in the best seats while enjoying some alcohol underage. Or signing Autographs for money while being an Amateur sportsman.

The voters for the Heisman in general are old conservative gentlemen who do not like any of this shananigans. On the other hand our boy Mariota is the exact opposite, a very shy modest young man (doesn't even have a facebook account) perfect for representing college football.

Also as you say the stats are lopsided towards Manziel, in the majority of games he is playing all 4 quarters and he is the A&M offence. Whereas Oregon are destroying teams and are mainly a run first offence.

So in my opinion just hold your nerve here, we have stunning value and the winner still could come from anywhere.

Thanks, appreciate that. We seem to have quite a bet here.

[tikay]

If you are around Tikay, I think the great bet in the Cray Wanderers game is the double chance Cray/draw @8/5 for maybe £20 with either Paddy Power. The value there is outrageous.

Also I didn't notice there was a double chance market available on the game and would have proposed this from the start had I known

The oppo in met police haven't won away from home in four games losing two, drawing two and have only scored 8 goals in all of their 10 games.

Think it is a stonking bet. Annoyingly too I had a bet at 13/10 with Paddy at midday, and after that happens they go out to 8/5, shocking.

O well, I think you would miss a trick here Tikay not going for the double chance.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/cray-wanderers-v-met-police/double-chance

Am confused now Ant, thought this was the big coup on Cray to win?

Are you now saying Double Chance, Cray/Draw is better?

Cray remain 9/2 Outright, which has drifted since you suggested it.

To be honest, I don't know how to do the maths on a 9/2 Outright to prove the Double Chance odds, but these are two different results completely.

Not knocking, just don't quite understand it, sorry. 

+1. Glad someone mentioned this because 20s might be "outrageous value" but 8/5.......head scratching time.

Well maybe he has changed his mind, but 2 days ago he implored everyone to get on the Cray win, but now we are suggesting a Draw. Those who got on the win ain't gonna be too thrilled! Unless, of course, they win.

For Ant's sake, whatever he is on, good luck to him, but I can't bet because I simply cannot understand whether, & which bet, is genuine value.

[tikay]

Unless I'm missing something here, BetFred have put up a new coupon which on first look gives far better value than the "Goals Galore" stuff we got involved in last season.

The coupon is called Any Time You Like and gives fixed odds on named players all scoring at any time for trebles and upwards.

By my calculations they are offering 10/1 the treble when the best available prices for the shortest few guys is more like 7/2-4/1.

Could someone please verify this for me, but if all seems above board I'd recommend a tidy treble on Suarez/Villa/Higuain for starters - say £50 @ 10/1 and probably do a massive perm on most of the odds on shots.

Hopefully someone can verify, but they need to hurry up!

As you know, I am not at all keen on Trebles, & bookies offer enhanced odds trebles for a reason - they get 3 shots at beating us - but I agree, the Value, if we understand it correctly, is there.