Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

Port Vale to beat Rochdale in the Football League Trophy at evens - http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/football-league-trophy/port-vale-v-rochdale/winner

Vale are a league above Rochdale. Vale have scored in all of their last 13 home games, Rochdale have only won 1 away game in 7 against the worst side in the football league Accrington Stanley and they failed to score in 5 of those seven games.

When Port Vale played in the first round against Bury they maintained 10 of the 11 starters for their next league match, which shows how seriously they take the competition while Rochdale had a bye into the second round, so we cannot see if they are going to be maintaining most of their 11 under Keith Hill.

Apparently under a rule you cannot make more than 5 changes from your last league game which made the Swindon boss upset here http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24444395 Perhaps Keith Hill is thinking along the same lines as his team are delicately poised just outside the playoffs.

Think it is a decent bet and suggest whatever you are comfortable with putting on for it. £30 maybe?

[Chompy]

The Cocaine Kid will be riding next year and that has to be a neg though.

I defer to Horsey and Chompy, but if someone had asked me to give a price, I'd have been nearer to 5/1 than 2/1.

The Cocaine Kid is an absolute liability these days and did his best to get her beat in the Vermeillie, but class carried the day.

We are not talking about a normal horse here. She is something else. This is almost like being offered 5/1 about Frankel for next year's QEII safe in the knowledge that it would be his autumn target.

I can't get on with this mob any more. The 5/1 won't last though. Thready not interested?

[Marky147]

The Cocaine Kid will be riding next year and that has to be a neg though.

I defer to Horsey and Chompy, but if someone had asked me to give a price, I'd have been nearer to 5/1 than 2/1.

The Cocaine Kid is an absolute liability these days and did his best to get her beat in the Vermeillie, but class carried the day.

We are not talking about a normal horse here. She is something else. This is almost like being offered 5/1 about Frankel for next year's QEII safe in the knowledge that it would be his autumn target.

I can't get on with this mob any more. The 5/1 won't last though. Thready not interested?

I think that Boyles let Tikay get lumps on, so Fred should be alright there.

[tikay]

The Cocaine Kid will be riding next year and that has to be a neg though.

I defer to Horsey and Chompy, but if someone had asked me to give a price, I'd have been nearer to 5/1 than 2/1.

The Cocaine Kid is an absolute liability these days and did his best to get her beat in the Vermeillie, but class carried the day.

We are not talking about a normal horse here. She is something else. This is almost like being offered 5/1 about Frankel for next year's QEII safe in the knowledge that it would be his autumn target.

I can't get on with this mob any more. The 5/1 won't last though. Thready not interested?

Been a bit distracted this morning with some heavy legal stuff, sorry.

I did have a look earlier, she was 5/1 then, but is down to 4/1 now. Thry don't have a "MAX BET" button, not that I can see, so I don;t know how much I could get on. I had £100 in my mind.

My only caveat is that a year is a very long time in the life of a 3 year old filly, & whilst I agree she is quite outstanding, a lot can happen to her wellbeing, physically or mentally, in 12 months. We've all seen so many of them go wrong from 3 to 4.

Then there is another matter......will Fred, in it's current form, or "stewardship", still be here in 12 months? 5/2 would be about right, imo, but if you see any 3/1, that might be value.

OK, gotta go, meeting #37 awaits.

Shall I take some 4/1 anyway? Presumably you or Doobs would take it off me if you agree the price is reasonable, & Fred shakes his head. 

[tikay]

The Cocaine Kid will be riding next year and that has to be a neg though.

I defer to Horsey and Chompy, but if someone had asked me to give a price, I'd have been nearer to 5/1 than 2/1.

The Cocaine Kid is an absolute liability these days and did his best to get her beat in the Vermeillie, but class carried the day.

We are not talking about a normal horse here. She is something else. This is almost like being offered 5/1 about Frankel for next year's QEII safe in the knowledge that it would be his autumn target.

I can't get on with this mob any more. The 5/1 won't last though. Thready not interested?

I think that Boyles let Tikay get lumps on, so Fred should be alright there.

4/1 with Boyles at present......

[Chompy]

Sigh @ Boyles. You know they haven't taken a penny at 5-1 since I tried to get on 15mins ago.

They offered me £50, which is not quite what I asked for...'sorry sir, there are restrictions on your account'. WTF do they think I know about a top-class filly in a Group 1 race 12 months ago that they don't? It's pathetic. So then they cut the price anyway, which is super stdd.

Fillies can go either way but this one is in the right hands and won't be over-raced before next autumn. Leave 4-1 though.

[Doobs]

The Cocaine Kid will be riding next year and that has to be a neg though.

I defer to Horsey and Chompy, but if someone had asked me to give a price, I'd have been nearer to 5/1 than 2/1.

The Cocaine Kid is an absolute liability these days and did his best to get her beat in the Vermeillie, but class carried the day.

We are not talking about a normal horse here. She is something else. This is almost like being offered 5/1 about Frankel for next year's QEII safe in the knowledge that it would be his autumn target.

I can't get on with this mob any more. The 5/1 won't last though. Thready not interested?

Been a bit distracted this morning with some heavy legal stuff, sorry.

I did have a look earlier, she was 5/1 then, but is down to 4/1 now. Thry don't have a "MAX BET" button, not that I can see, so I don;t know how much I could get on. I had £100 in my mind.

My only caveat is that a year is a very long time in the life of a 3 year old filly, & whilst I agree she is quite outstanding, a lot can happen to her wellbeing, physically or mentally, in 12 months. We've all seen so many of them go wrong from 3 to 4.

Then there is another matter......will Fred, in it's current form, or "stewardship", still be here in 12 months? 5/2 would be about right, imo, but if you see any 3/1, that might be value.

OK, gotta go, meeting #37 awaits.

Shall I take some 4/1 anyway? Presumably you or Doobs would take it off me if you agree the price is reasonable, & Fred shakes his head. 

Not for me, but if you can get me 11/4 on Sophie Eliis Bextor for SCD it would be good.

The 2.30 train looks like it is about to leave the station too.



As an aside now we have the free bets that 8/1 Miss France for the 1,000 Guineas has gone too

[Tal]

Boyle has young Sophie at 7/4 jolly now. Bananas in pyjamas price IMHO

[Doobs]

Boyle has young Sophie at 7/4 jolly now. Bananas in pyjamas price IMHO

Hills have her at 15/8 top female, obviously a stale price for those that don't do patience.

There has been plenty of opportunity to lay her at 2/1 on Betfair during the last 12 hours Tal.  You been filling your boots?

[Chompy]

I don't watch SCD, so couldn't say for sure, but usually in reality shows these are the best times to be on the other side. As in, lay the wotsit out of Sophie Trellis-Fixer.

If Tighty, Doobsy or other SCD expert thinks she lacks the potential to go shorter over the next fortnight, then she's highly liable to driff right back out. I'd be looking to take a big chunk at 3.1 or so.

[Chompy]

Different gear.

[Marky147]

Think that's what Tikay croons to himself everytime we start posting about reality TV

[Tal]

Boyle has young Sophie at 7/4 jolly now. Bananas in pyjamas price IMHO

Hills have her at 15/8 top female, obviously a stale price for those that don't do patience.

There has been plenty of opportunity to lay her at 2/1 on Betfair during the last 12 hours Tal.  You been filling your boots?

Like I say, it's a long road and she is an unknown quantity in dances that require a lot of hip movement and a fluid upper body (samba, salsa, rumba and cha cha cha). If you're betting to win and intend to let it ride, you are effectively - in my eyes - betting ante post on the winner of the final. So, you're carrying the risk of falling at any of the fences plus injuries and loss of popularity.

She definitely can win and she and Brendan make a wonderful couple. She will probably be doing a ballroom this Saturday and a good performance in hold with one of the best ballroom professionals on the show will mean she stays high in the list of favourites. The week after will be a test for her.

To answer your question, I'm not one for betting on 1/2 shots, so although I believe personally that a lay is a good bet in this case, I won't be putting anything on it. That's purely a personal thing rather an indictment of the merits of the bet or my reasoning. Ice cream thinking, I know...

[horseplayer]

4.30 notts tommorow FANTASY GLADIATOR Paddy are 8/1 to big

suggest £30 each eway nice each way race with the 17 runners and 4 places

Reasoning (brief)

Did best of those held up last time at Kempton on a meeting were very little made up any ground

John Quinn in excellent form after a quietish season

Conditions fine

Personally make him a 11/2-6/1 shot

[Chompy]

17 runners, 7/1 the field? What price two nons horsey? Evens at best with me. Butter go 17/2. Prefer win only tbh.