Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

We also have a small bet on MVG (£10 @ 4/1) in additon to the "money back savers". We are in good shape so far, though Mr Taylor was in woefully bad form last night.

LOVED the Janet Yellen bet, what a spot that was.

Agreed Tikay, fantastic spot for Yellen, a big well done to Neeko.

I haven't been able to watch the darts but your comment about Taylor interested me as I was looking at the handicap betting on his match with Anderson. Anderson +1.5 is 13/8 with boyles but as low as 5/4 with b365, on recent performance would you say there might be a touch of value in the 13/8 ?

My only concern being is that a single match can be quite volatile, 13/8 against Taylor could be ok if he didn't turn up but then equally he is capable of making a match look extremely easy. Any thoughts?

I have to leave the views on that to our experts, I know very little about Darts "value", but the notion certainly crossed my mind.

As a non-expert, I'd say.....

Taylor was so bad at times last night (think he missed TEN consecutive attempts at one double!), that I seriously considered going against him in-running. But he digs deep, & gets himself out of holes. And he did. There was a bit of "personal" in play last night, too, maybe that unbalanced him. He was very honest aftewards, & made no excuses. "some nights it goes like that, I just played badly" sort of thing.

He is different class, whether we like him or not. He said he will practice all day today, & sort out the problem. Cometh the hour, cometh the man......

He has culled his schedule, too, plays a LOT less than the other guys, so he is still reasonably "fresh".

Anderson was, I thought, rather unimpressive, too, in fact he was almost lucky to get over the line.

Lets see what the experts say. I hope they say "stick with The Power", because my gut instinct is that he is a born winner & champion, & these guys just find ways to overcome stuff.

Lewis impressed me, to, we have a great bit of value with him.

Been quite enjoyable so far. I have to miss tonight, as I'm working, but I'll watch the rest of the week.

[Marky147]

We also have a small bet on MVG (£10 @ 4/1) in additon to the "money back savers". We are in good shape so far, though Mr Taylor was in woefully bad form last night.

LOVED the Janet Yellen bet, what a spot that was.

Agreed Tikay, fantastic spot for Yellen, a big well done to Neeko.

I haven't been able to watch the darts but your comment about Taylor interested me as I was looking at the handicap betting on his match with Anderson. Anderson +1.5 is 13/8 with boyles but as low as 5/4 with b365, on recent performance would you say there might be a touch of value in the 13/8 ?

My only concern being is that a single match can be quite volatile, 13/8 against Taylor could be ok if he didn't turn up but then equally he is capable of making a match look extremely easy. Any thoughts?

If Anderson played like he did in his first match, I wouldn't even want a handicap, however, Jelle Klaasen is not Phil Taylor

I think that given Anderson's propensity to blow hot and cold himself, I would prefer to just spend my £2 on some popcorn and enjoy the game.

[Snowball]

We also have a small bet on MVG (£10 @ 4/1) in additon to the "money back savers". We are in good shape so far, though Mr Taylor was in woefully bad form last night.

LOVED the Janet Yellen bet, what a spot that was.

Agreed Tikay, fantastic spot for Yellen, a big well done to Neeko.

I haven't been able to watch the darts but your comment about Taylor interested me as I was looking at the handicap betting on his match with Anderson. Anderson +1.5 is 13/8 with boyles but as low as 5/4 with b365, on recent performance would you say there might be a touch of value in the 13/8 ?

My only concern being is that a single match can be quite volatile, 13/8 against Taylor could be ok if he didn't turn up but then equally he is capable of making a match look extremely easy. Any thoughts?

If Anderson played like he did in his first match, I wouldn't even want a handicap, however, Jelle Klaasen is not Phil Taylor

I think that given Anderson's propensity to blow hot and cold himself, I would prefer to just spend my £2 on some popcorn and enjoy the game.

This, I can't see Taylor playing as poor as he did.
Does Fred have an account with Winner?

[tikay]

We also have a small bet on MVG (£10 @ 4/1) in additon to the "money back savers". We are in good shape so far, though Mr Taylor was in woefully bad form last night.

LOVED the Janet Yellen bet, what a spot that was.

Agreed Tikay, fantastic spot for Yellen, a big well done to Neeko.

I haven't been able to watch the darts but your comment about Taylor interested me as I was looking at the handicap betting on his match with Anderson. Anderson +1.5 is 13/8 with boyles but as low as 5/4 with b365, on recent performance would you say there might be a touch of value in the 13/8 ?

My only concern being is that a single match can be quite volatile, 13/8 against Taylor could be ok if he didn't turn up but then equally he is capable of making a match look extremely easy. Any thoughts?

If Anderson played like he did in his first match, I wouldn't even want a handicap, however, Jelle Klaasen is not Phil Taylor

I think that given Anderson's propensity to blow hot and cold himself, I would prefer to just spend my £2 on some popcorn and enjoy the game.

This, I can't see Taylor playing as poor as he did.
Does Fred have an account with Winner?

Winner.com? No, sorry.

[Doobs]

I think we should put twenty each way on Wayne Rooney as first goal scorer in tomorrow's game against Montenegro.  He seems a certain starter to me, and is still the most likely scorer.

I accept Montenegro aren't complete whipping boys, but they aren't Spain either, and it may be a bit cagey at the start, but:
the over 2.5 is odds on everywhere;
the 11/8 at bet365 for anytime is the best anywhere;
the 9/2 first goalscorer is the best price and matches Betfair.

Overall it is probably just a smidgen of value.  I think £20 each way or whatever they max us at is fine for a sweat.

[BigAdz]

I think we should put twenty each way on Wayne Rooney as first goal scorer in tomorrow's game against Montenegro.  He seems a certain starter to me, and is still the most likely scorer.

I accept Montenegro aren't complete whipping boys, but they aren't Spain either, and it may be a bit cagey at the start, but:
the over 2.5 is odds on everywhere;
the 11/8 at bet365 for anytime is the best anywhere;
the 9/2 first goalscorer is the best price and matches Betfair.

Overall it is probably just a smidgen of value.  I think £20 each way or whatever they max us at is fine for a sweat.

Cant argue with the Rooney bit, but I am quite surprised about over 2.5 being fav. We are now in the England "freeze" zone, and we never seem to qualify comfortably. After our last game everyone thought, almost job done, but the closer we get the more the nerves kick in.

Two great nerve janglers ahead.

[TightEnd]

Meet Napolioni Nalaga

Click to see full-size image.

He's a Fijian winger. Yes really, a winger. For Clermont Auvergne in France, last season's Heineken Cup Runners Up

The man is unstoppable, nicknamed    "black beast", 'the new Lomu', 'animal"

The Heineken Cup starts again tomorrow

Picking a winner is tough, but the odds are that it will be French. Why would that be? Well there is a financial reason, in that the French league does not operate with a salary cap, as the English league does. This leads to a talent drain over time into the French league. The Irish and English teams manage to compete, and the Welsh, Scottish and Italian teams generally lack the resources to do so, some results aside

Clermont and Toulon, in the Heineken Cup final last year, fielded a total of eight France-qualified starters out of a possible 30. Of these eight players, only four were regulars in the French national team.

Clemont are a decent bet to go deep in the competition this year

Nalaga is I think a good bet for top try scorer, priced 10-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/top-try-scorer

In 2013, Nalaga played 25 games for Clermont in both the 2012–13 Top 14 season and the 2012–13 Heineken Cup leading the try-scoring tally in both with 13 and 6 tries respectively, taking his overall tally to 80 tries in 115 games for Clermont.

I quote

"On 27 April, Nalaga's solo try in the Heineken Cup semi-final against Munster helped his team reach the Grand Final of the Heineken Cup where he scored a try but it wasn't enough to defeat the new champion, Toulon. He ended the tournament with 8 tries scoring 5 tries in pool play and a try each in the quarter final, semi final and the grand final"

Give him the ball, he scores tries. Clermont do so

In the French top 14 so far Clermont are only 5th but in 9 games have scored 239 points, marginally behind Toulon and Montpellier who lead the division but indicative of plenty of strike power



Clermont's group is ok. Harlequins have had a poor start to the season, so the London club do not have momentum, while the Scarlets have lost their most lethal weapon, George North. Racing Metro are the other team in the group and they have spent many euros on recruiting the likes of Johnny Sexton but are not the team Clermont are, yet

The easiest group is the Toulouse one where they and Saracens are joined by the weakest Irish Province Connacht and Italy's Zebre. The likes of Hosea Gear and Maxim Medard on the wing for Toulouse may be decent cover bets because of the pool games against the weaker sides possibly leading to high try tallies. I am less confident that Toulouse qualify ahead of Saracens and go deep in the competition though

 
Recommendations

The Fijian Beast-Animal-New Lomu, £30 win 10-1 Ladbrokes Heineken Cup Top try scorer

Hosea Gear £10 win 16-1 Coral Heineken Cup Top try scorer

Maxim Medard £5 e/w Coral 28/1 Heineken Cup Top try scorer

[TightEnd]

I think we should put twenty each way on Wayne Rooney as first goal scorer in tomorrow's game against Montenegro.  He seems a certain starter to me, and is still the most likely scorer.

I accept Montenegro aren't complete whipping boys, but they aren't Spain either, and it may be a bit cagey at the start, but:
the over 2.5 is odds on everywhere;
the 11/8 at bet365 for anytime is the best anywhere;
the 9/2 first goalscorer is the best price and matches Betfair.

Overall it is probably just a smidgen of value.  I think £20 each way or whatever they max us at is fine for a sweat.

Cant argue with the Rooney bit, but I am quite surprised about over 2.5 being fav. We are now in the England "freeze" zone, and we never seem to qualify comfortably. After our last game everyone thought, almost job done, but the closer we get the more the nerves kick in.

Two great nerve janglers ahead.

I too would be cautious about over 2.5. No concerns about Rooney as stated though

Montenegro have been mentioned and tipped on this thread for about 18 months now

Extremely solid, tough to beat (missing a few though, notably three of the back five and Vucinic) and have won 3 and drawn 3 of the last six competitive away. Of course you have to factor in Moldova and San Marino into that list of six games, but 1-1 in Poland and 1-1 at home to England doesn't have me thinking 4-0+ tomorrow

Its no accident that 1-0 and 2-0 England are as short as 9/2 and 5/1 in markets

Expect it to be tight for a long time

[horseplayer]

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2013/oct/10/world-cup-2014-qualifiers-montenegro-england

excellent blog from Jonathon Wilson a man who i would value above anyone on the qualities of eastern european national sides

Very good read

[ripple11]

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2013/oct/10/world-cup-2014-qualifiers-montenegro-england

excellent blog from Jonathon Wilson a man who i would value above anyone on the qualities of eastern european national sides

Very good read

yes good read.

Just getting my head around the odds for this fixture and I see he says:

Put simply, if England draw against Montenegro for the fourth time in a row, they will have to beat Poland next Tuesday even to make the play-offs. Lose to Montenegro and, unless Ukraine slip up against Poland, they are almost certainly out of the World Cup.

Obviously all info is out there ,but history tells us this is not going to be easy at all!..... and at the odds I'm putting a bit of ice cream money on the draw.

[Evilpengwinz]

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/to-be-classified

1/4 for Max Chilton to be classified (finish 90% of the race = at least 48 laps) in the Japanese GP is value, IMO. The Marussia is a very reliable car, and Max's "To finish twenty-first, first you must finish" driving style is getting him to the end of the race, albeit slowly - He's finished every race this season.

[DungBeetle]

Anyone else worried about Hodgson not being able to generate a win when he really needs it?  Always seems so negative. 

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/to-be-classified

1/4 for Max Chilton to be classified (finish 90% of the race = at least 48 laps) in the Japanese GP is value, IMO. The Marussia is a very reliable car, and Max's "To finish twenty-first, first you must finish" driving style is getting him to the end of the race, albeit slowly - He's finished every race this season.

Thanks Andy.

That's a very interesting, & curious, Market.

Relative to the others, yes, he looks fairly priced.

I wonder what the over-round is in that Market  though? - pretty hard to work out at first glance.


http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/to-be-classified

[DungBeetle]

Isn't the market for each driver self contained as they are independant (i.e. they can all be classified)?

[tikay]

Meet Napolioni Nalaga

Click to see full-size image.

He's a Fijian winger. Yes really, a winger. For Clermont Auvergne in France, last season's Heineken Cup Runners Up

The man is unstoppable, nicknamed    "black beast", 'the new Lomu', 'animal"

The Heineken Cup starts again tomorrow

Picking a winner is tough, but the odds are that it will be French. Why would that be? Well there is a financial reason, in that the French league does not operate with a salary cap, as the English league does. This leads to a talent drain over time into the French league. The Irish and English teams manage to compete, and the Welsh, Scottish and Italian teams generally lack the resources to do so, some results aside

Clermont and Toulon, in the Heineken Cup final last year, fielded a total of eight France-qualified starters out of a possible 30. Of these eight players, only four were regulars in the French national team.

Clemont are a decent bet to go deep in the competition this year

Nalaga is I think a good bet for top try scorer, priced 10-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/top-try-scorer

In 2013, Nalaga played 25 games for Clermont in both the 2012–13 Top 14 season and the 2012–13 Heineken Cup leading the try-scoring tally in both with 13 and 6 tries respectively, taking his overall tally to 80 tries in 115 games for Clermont.

I quote

"On 27 April, Nalaga's solo try in the Heineken Cup semi-final against Munster helped his team reach the Grand Final of the Heineken Cup where he scored a try but it wasn't enough to defeat the new champion, Toulon. He ended the tournament with 8 tries scoring 5 tries in pool play and a try each in the quarter final, semi final and the grand final"

Give him the ball, he scores tries. Clermont do so

In the French top 14 so far Clermont are only 5th but in 9 games have scored 239 points, marginally behind Toulon and Montpellier who lead the division but indicative of plenty of strike power



Clermont's group is ok. Harlequins have had a poor start to the season, so the London club do not have momentum, while the Scarlets have lost their most lethal weapon, George North. Racing Metro are the other team in the group and they have spent many euros on recruiting the likes of Johnny Sexton but are not the team Clermont are, yet

The easiest group is the Toulouse one where they and Saracens are joined by the weakest Irish Province Connacht and Italy's Zebre. The likes of Hosea Gear and Maxim Medard on the wing for Toulouse may be decent cover bets because of the pool games against the weaker sides possibly leading to high try tallies. I am less confident that Toulouse qualify ahead of Saracens and go deep in the competition though

 
Recommendations

The Fijian Beast-Animal-New Lomu, £30 win 10-1 Ladbrokes Heineken Cup Top try scorer

Hosea Gear £10 win 16-1 Coral Heineken Cup Top try scorer

Maxim Medard £5 e/w Coral 28/1 Heineken Cup Top try scorer

Damn you Tighty, damn you. You oughta be a salesman. That's so good, ticks all my boxes, & we get a season long sweat, & a potential new Fred Golden Boy.

Lovely. Take us right though the winter, that, & will replace your beloved Baseball reports.

All aboard, EXCEPT Mr Ladbrokes Restricted me to £20. The rest are all as above.

BETS PLACED