Tips for Tikay

[aaron1867]

I have been looking at the same market and Bet365 are standout for most.

Also think 3/4 is decent for them to win to nil, which I kinda expect them too.

[aaron1867]

Robben also standout at 5's to score 2 or more with 365 only too.

[a.sparrow]

Bet365 have some standout prices on the first goal scorer market in the bayern munich game tonight.  Obviously you expect Bayern to score a few goals, so this looks like the perfect oppertunity to hit them for some each way value.  If Doobs is around and wouldn't mind then maybe he can give an optimal staking plan for them?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bayern-munich-v-plzen/first-goalscorer

Arjen Robben is not only top priced with them but is attack minded and scores pretty frequently (better than 1 in 2 games for Bayern).  Can't believe he is 11/2 and you get each way.    Is that a plan?  Tony can get his usual £8.36 each way for thread.

Sounds good to me, he is the only one  I have bet so far, there is alot of choice though. IF we can work out a starting team then its easier to pick, from reading this article:

http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/bayern-munich/champions-league/preview/preview-bayern-munich-vs-viktoria-plzen_112709.html

It seems Pizzaro and Gotze are unlikely to start.  Mandzukic is silly anytime value using the each way bet, and Muller is always pretty solid on the goal scoring front.

[Kmac84]

Any love on the BTTS market and Match Winner markets? I noticed Tighty suggested a similar bet in the recent England v Poland game.  I'm not exactly sure on the Maths of it though should we be looking at it as basic double or should there be a % deduction because if one happens then its likely the other happens?  The game I like for this bet tonight is the Real v Juve game.  I think early on I over estimated Juventus and now I think they aren't as good this year as I thought.  Additionally I also think I might have enderestimated Madrid.  They still don't look to be free flowing and are still getting used to Ancelloti.  I like the BTTS and draw tonight with Lad's @ 18/5.  

Not a rec yet just for discussion but if the feedback is good I would like to put it up.  Either as DRAW & BTTS and REAL BTTS depending on feedback and a valid explanation of the Maths.  

Or is it just a an ice cream bet.  I remember when the Goals Galore coupons came out they were thought of as mug bets but then more and more big punters started playing them.  

[horseplayer]

looks like more value pie going down with palace press conf at 5.30pm

cue mm leaving tommorow

[Doobs]

Robben also standout at 5's to score 2 or more with 365 only too.

People score 2 much less than they score 1.  I'd much rather have 11/6 to score once than 5/1 to score twice.  Why not just put the money on the obvious value?  

Has anybody done any maths on the to score twice markets?

[tikay]

Bet365 have some standout prices on the first goal scorer market in the bayern munich game tonight.  Obviously you expect Bayern to score a few goals, so this looks like the perfect oppertunity to hit them for some each way value.  If Doobs is around and wouldn't mind then maybe he can give an optimal staking plan for them?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bayern-munich-v-plzen/first-goalscorer

Arjen Robben is not only top priced with them but is attack minded and scores pretty frequently (better than 1 in 2 games for Bayern).  Can't believe he is 11/2 and you get each way.    Is that a plan?  Tony can get his usual £8.36 each way for thread.

Afternoon, & thanks Doobs, sparrer, etc.

Been "read-only" all day, & am still up to my neck in shite, so pardon brevity.

I was able to get a monsta £9.09 each way on Robben, FGS, with Bet365. (I could have had £36 "WIN" ).

BET PLACED

Offline again shortly, for an hour or so, anything else for tonight, 'I'll,sort later.

Thanks guys.

[aaron1867]

Robben also standout at 5's to score 2 or more with 365 only too.

People score 2 much less than they score 1.

Ah.... I didn't realise this....

[tikay]

Robben also standout at 5's to score 2 or more with 365 only too.

Thanks Aaron, but I'll swerve that. One would do me very nicely indeed.

 

[tikay]

Any love on the BTTS market and Match Winner markets? I noticed Tighty suggested a similar bet in the recent England v Poland game.  I'm not exactly sure on the Maths of it though should we be looking at it as basic double or should there be a % deduction because if one happens then its likely the other happens?  The game I like for this bet tonight is the Real v Juve game.  I think early on I over estimated Juventus and now I think they aren't as good this year as I thought.  Additionally I also think I might have enderestimated Madrid.  They still don't look to be free flowing and are still getting used to Ancelloti.  I like the BTTS and draw tonight with Lad's @ 18/5.  

Not a rec yet just for discussion but if the feedback is good I would like to put it up.  Either as DRAW & BTTS and REAL BTTS depending on feedback and a valid explanation of the Maths.  

Or is it just a an ice cream bet.  I remember when the Goals Galore coupons came out they were thought of as mug bets but then more and more big punters started playing them.  

Thanks KMac, & well done on the Celtic one last night.

I'm struggling to see the "value case" on this at present. No objections as such, but how can we see the"edge" we need?

[Kmac84]

I am also on Robben.

Hopefully there is some early team news available and we can get on one or two more.

[BigAdz]

Robben also standout at 5's to score 2 or more with 365 only too.

People score 2 much less than they score 1.  I'd much rather have 11/6 to score once than 5/1 to score twice.  Why not just put the money on the obvious value?  

Has anybody done any maths on the to score twice markets?

The maths of punting are not my strong point but when someone is a lower price to score twice than they are to score first, especially when the FGS market has a back up, I don't need a maths guru to tell me its a no value bet.

[horseplayer]

quite surprising betfair sportsbook on the only firm left laying holloway

and also at 8/15

not for me but for those who can it is a lump on job

[Kmac84]

Any love on the BTTS market and Match Winner markets? I noticed Tighty suggested a similar bet in the recent England v Poland game.  I'm not exactly sure on the Maths of it though should we be looking at it as basic double or should there be a % deduction because if one happens then its likely the other happens?  The game I like for this bet tonight is the Real v Juve game.  I think early on I over estimated Juventus and now I think they aren't as good this year as I thought.  Additionally I also think I might have enderestimated Madrid.  They still don't look to be free flowing and are still getting used to Ancelloti.  I like the BTTS and draw tonight with Lad's @ 18/5.  

Not a rec yet just for discussion but if the feedback is good I would like to put it up.  Either as DRAW & BTTS and REAL BTTS depending on feedback and a valid explanation of the Maths.  

Or is it just a an ice cream bet.  I remember when the Goals Galore coupons came out they were thought of as mug bets but then more and more big punters started playing them.  

Thanks KMac, & well done on the Celtic one last night.

I'm struggling to see the "value case" on this at present. No objections as such, but how can we see the"edge" we need?

Not a 100% certain myself. Was more for discussion. I priced up what I thought was fair as singles and doubled it and the Draw/BTTS is were the value is IMO but not much in it.

[aaron1867]

Robben also standout at 5's to score 2 or more with 365 only too.

People score 2 much less than they score 1.  I'd much rather have 11/6 to score once than 5/1 to score twice.  Why not just put the money on the obvious value?  

Has anybody done any maths on the to score twice markets?

The maths of punting are not my strong point but when someone is a lower price to score twice than they are to score first, especially when the FGS market has a back up, I don't need a maths guru to tell me its a no value bet.

He's only a bigger price with 365 to score first, everywhere else he is shorter. I am not sure the maths proves it's a bad bet.

I think that Plzen will be attempting to hold out as long as they can, but if Bayern score very early, then the floodgates are to open. He's standout at 5's with 365, then no bigger than 4's elsewhere, it's a bit of value in THAT particular market, expecting Bayern to be scoring quite a few tonight I'd imagine.

None of my previous bets was a recc for Fred fwiw.