Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Wonder who Doobs likes for Strictly this week?

It isn't that difficult to find popularity, likes etc.

I think the obvious is to start backing Dave Myers fir next elimination.  If he gets in the bottom 2, he is gone.  His popularity isn't as great as you might think in the polls.  Eg Digital Spy has Patrick bottom, then Fiona and Dave, then Rachel.  Of course the TV votes may not reflect that, but there is a big gap between the no hopers and the top performers, so it is perm 2 from 6 (if we stretch a bit and include Ben and Mark).  Whichever it is I get him at biggest around 2/1 for bottom 2 and if he is in the bottom 2, he should be long odds on.  That makes the 4/1 on offer in several spots to be pretty generous.

Think Tikay should be having a piece, maybe £20?   I have a little more on.

On the others, I think Rachel is much more likely to be bottom 2 than she was last week.   I think we missed the boat on Abbey, she has been good the last couple of weeks, and now seems popular too.  Too late for the 9/1 though. 

TY TY.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Golf Bet

Our young Master Speith is back in action this week in the WGC. Normally I would leave it a week to see what sort of form he is in, but at his age I am sure he has been practicing like mad and chomping at the bit.
He is still 33-1 with PP and 365

£15 ew?

N1 Adzy, deffo worth an interest.

We got maxed @ both, but in total, I got about £9.50ew, which will do fine.

Details later.

BET PLACED

You can get 35/1 on Betfair on the win, which is about the same price after commission.  It will have to be win only for now (the place market is quiet), but avoids the restriction.

Thanks Doobs, will sort this out later.

Still on catch up here.

You can have 5 e/w off me if you want.  33/1 quarter first 5.  

BOOKED, thank you.

BET PLACED

[JaffaCake]

Wonder who Doobs likes for Strictly this week?

It isn't that difficult to find popularity, likes etc.

I think the obvious is to start backing Dave Myers fir next elimination.  If he gets in the bottom 2, he is gone.  His popularity isn't as great as you might think in the polls.  Eg Digital Spy has Patrick bottom, then Fiona and Dave, then Rachel.  Of course the TV votes may not reflect that, but there is a big gap between the no hopers and the top performers, so it is perm 2 from 6 (if we stretch a bit and include Ben and Mark).  Whichever it is I get him at biggest around 2/1 for bottom 2 and if he is in the bottom 2, he should be long odds on.  That makes the 4/1 on offer in several spots to be pretty generous.

Think Tikay should be having a piece, maybe £20?  I have a little more on.

On the others, I think Rachel is much more likely to be bottom 2 than she was last week.   I think we missed the boat on Abbey, she has been good the last couple of weeks, and now seems popular too.  Too late for the 9/1 though. 

Agree with Dave but I just think with it being Halloween week he'll have his hair like a mad man, be dressed like beetlejuice and his performance will save him. Some of the less showy showmen might struggle. Not sure where that leaves me, if Patrick and Rachel are bottom, who goes? Her?

[redarmi]

I think there is a bet in the NFL tonight which represents very good value.  Ladbrokes have a rushing matchbet between Zac Stacy (RB for the Rams) and Russell Wilson (QB for the Seahawks).  It is pretty unusual to have a rushing matchbet between a QB and a RB in the first place because the running back is obviously going to get more carries.  Wilson is a somewhat exceptional QB and averages 35 yards a game and the Rams have a horrible rush defense so he figures for more tonight.  Stacy has been something of a revelation since he started and is averaging 4.3 yards a carry and is averaging 70 yards per game.  Ladbrokes initially priced it at 4/5 Stacy which on these stats would probably be about right although I think I would prefer Stacy marginally at those prices but here is the kicker.  Stacy's stats are based on games with Sam Bradford as the QB.  Bradford is a legit elite QB.  He got injured in the last game and is replaced here by Kellen Clemens.  In preseason Clemens threw 4 interceptions in one game.  The Rams have made no real bones about the fact they don't fancy him to the degree that they actually tried to sign a 76yo (or something) Brett Favre this week.  This week Zach Stacy will be their offense.  I just don't see that they will trust Clemens to throw the ball especially not against a Seahawks pass defense that is very, very good.  Their Rush Defense is good but at least they have a weapon of sorts against that and I would be amazed if Stacy didn't have 20+ carries this week.  The only real downside is if they go behind big early and just have to throw the ball but even then I am not sure they will risk Clemens making those kind of high risk plays.  I think Stacy should be 1/2 maximum.  8/11 now represents good value I think and realistically we only need to fade a big run from Wilson and if they are up big I think they will avoid him having too many carries for injury reasons.

Recommend £110 Stacy more rushing yards than Wilson @ 8/11 Ladbrokes.

[Doobs]

Wonder who Doobs likes for Strictly this week?

It isn't that difficult to find popularity, likes etc.

I think the obvious is to start backing Dave Myers fir next elimination.  If he gets in the bottom 2, he is gone.  His popularity isn't as great as you might think in the polls.  Eg Digital Spy has Patrick bottom, then Fiona and Dave, then Rachel.  Of course the TV votes may not reflect that, but there is a big gap between the no hopers and the top performers, so it is perm 2 from 6 (if we stretch a bit and include Ben and Mark).  Whichever it is I get him at biggest around 2/1 for bottom 2 and if he is in the bottom 2, he should be long odds on.  That makes the 4/1 on offer in several spots to be pretty generous.

Think Tikay should be having a piece, maybe £20?  I have a little more on.

On the others, I think Rachel is much more likely to be bottom 2 than she was last week.   I think we missed the boat on Abbey, she has been good the last couple of weeks, and now seems popular too.  Too late for the 9/1 though. 

Agree with Dave but I just think with it being Halloween week he'll have his hair like a mad man, be dressed like beetlejuice and his performance will save him. Some of the less showy showmen might struggle. Not sure where that leaves me, if Patrick and Rachel are bottom, who goes? Her?

I don't know with Dave he does the big comedy but each week yet remains terrible.  People are just going to get bored in the end.  I can't remember the polls, but I am sure John Sergeant was much more popular.

I don't think there is much between Patrick, Rachel and Fiona, so I wouldn't like to predict who goes with any 2.  I just think Dave goes vs whoever.  If you don't back Dave, then Patrick's odds are twice as big as Fiona and Rachel.  

[tikay]

I think there is a bet in the NFL tonight which represents very good value.  Ladbrokes have a rushing matchbet between Zac Stacy (RB for the Rams) and Russell Wilson (QB for the Seahawks).  It is pretty unusual to have a rushing matchbet between a QB and a RB in the first place because the running back is obviously going to get more carries.  Wilson is a somewhat exceptional QB and averages 35 yards a game and the Rams have a horrible rush defense so he figures for more tonight.  Stacy has been something of a revelation since he started and is averaging 4.3 yards a carry and is averaging 70 yards per game.  Ladbrokes initially priced it at 4/5 Stacy which on these stats would probably be about right although I think I would prefer Stacy marginally at those prices but here is the kicker.  Stacy's stats are based on games with Sam Bradford as the QB.  Bradford is a legit elite QB.  He got injured in the last game and is replaced here by Kellen Clemens.  In preseason Clemens threw 4 interceptions in one game.  The Rams have made no real bones about the fact they don't fancy him to the degree that they actually tried to sign a 76yo (or something) Brett Favre this week.  This week Zach Stacy will be their offense.  I just don't see that they will trust Clemens to throw the ball especially not against a Seahawks pass defense that is very, very good.  Their Rush Defense is good but at least they have a weapon of sorts against that and I would be amazed if Stacy didn't have 20+ carries this week.  The only real downside is if they go behind big early and just have to throw the ball but even then I am not sure they will risk Clemens making those kind of high risk plays.  I think Stacy should be 1/2 maximum.  8/11 now represents good value I think and realistically we only need to fade a big run from Wilson and if they are up big I think they will avoid him having too many carries for injury reasons.

Recommend £110 Stacy more rushing yards than Wilson @ 8/11 Ladbrokes.

Thanks Stu.

We got Restricted to £34.38, so we took £33.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

I notice that two of the recs Neil made yesterday at Betting Emporium are for tonight's game and although not super strong on his staking plan we can beat the price on both with betfair, I haven't checked any other site as just home from work/gym but assuming that is best price we should be betting both tonight .

Well reminded, thank you.

We have backed both, to modest stakes. (Approx £40 each, details in morning).

BETTING EMPORIUM

St Louis v Seattle

St Louis +13.5 @ 20/21

UNDER 43.5 points @ 19/20


BETS PLACED

[The Camel]

I think there is a bet in the NFL tonight which represents very good value.  Ladbrokes have a rushing matchbet between Zac Stacy (RB for the Rams) and Russell Wilson (QB for the Seahawks).  It is pretty unusual to have a rushing matchbet between a QB and a RB in the first place because the running back is obviously going to get more carries.  Wilson is a somewhat exceptional QB and averages 35 yards a game and the Rams have a horrible rush defense so he figures for more tonight.  Stacy has been something of a revelation since he started and is averaging 4.3 yards a carry and is averaging 70 yards per game.  Ladbrokes initially priced it at 4/5 Stacy which on these stats would probably be about right although I think I would prefer Stacy marginally at those prices but here is the kicker.  Stacy's stats are based on games with Sam Bradford as the QB.  Bradford is a legit elite QB.  He got injured in the last game and is replaced here by Kellen Clemens.  In preseason Clemens threw 4 interceptions in one game.  The Rams have made no real bones about the fact they don't fancy him to the degree that they actually tried to sign a 76yo (or something) Brett Favre this week.  This week Zach Stacy will be their offense.  I just don't see that they will trust Clemens to throw the ball especially not against a Seahawks pass defense that is very, very good.  Their Rush Defense is good but at least they have a weapon of sorts against that and I would be amazed if Stacy didn't have 20+ carries this week.  The only real downside is if they go behind big early and just have to throw the ball but even then I am not sure they will risk Clemens making those kind of high risk plays.  I think Stacy should be 1/2 maximum.  8/11 now represents good value I think and realistically we only need to fade a big run from Wilson and if they are up big I think they will avoid him having too many carries for injury reasons.

Recommend £110 Stacy more rushing yards than Wilson @ 8/11 Ladbrokes.

Thanks Stu.

We got Restricted to £34.38, so we took £33.

BET PLACED

Urgh, when did you get restricted by Ladbrokes?

What have you got left? Just Hills and Chandlers?

[Doobs]

I notice that two of the recs Neil made yesterday at Betting Emporium are for tonight's game and although not super strong on his staking plan we can beat the price on both with betfair, I haven't checked any other site as just home from work/gym but assuming that is best price we should be betting both tonight .

Well reminded, thank you.

We have backed both, to modest stakes. (Approx £40 each, details in morning).

BETTING EMPORIUM

St Louis v Seattle

St Louis +13.5 @ 20/21

UNDER 43.5 points @ 19/20


BETS PLACED

Booooom

[tikay]

I think there is a bet in the NFL tonight which represents very good value.  Ladbrokes have a rushing matchbet between Zac Stacy (RB for the Rams) and Russell Wilson (QB for the Seahawks).  It is pretty unusual to have a rushing matchbet between a QB and a RB in the first place because the running back is obviously going to get more carries.  Wilson is a somewhat exceptional QB and averages 35 yards a game and the Rams have a horrible rush defense so he figures for more tonight.  Stacy has been something of a revelation since he started and is averaging 4.3 yards a carry and is averaging 70 yards per game.  Ladbrokes initially priced it at 4/5 Stacy which on these stats would probably be about right although I think I would prefer Stacy marginally at those prices but here is the kicker.  Stacy's stats are based on games with Sam Bradford as the QB.  Bradford is a legit elite QB.  He got injured in the last game and is replaced here by Kellen Clemens.  In preseason Clemens threw 4 interceptions in one game.  The Rams have made no real bones about the fact they don't fancy him to the degree that they actually tried to sign a 76yo (or something) Brett Favre this week.  This week Zach Stacy will be their offense.  I just don't see that they will trust Clemens to throw the ball especially not against a Seahawks pass defense that is very, very good.  Their Rush Defense is good but at least they have a weapon of sorts against that and I would be amazed if Stacy didn't have 20+ carries this week.  The only real downside is if they go behind big early and just have to throw the ball but even then I am not sure they will risk Clemens making those kind of high risk plays.  I think Stacy should be 1/2 maximum.  8/11 now represents good value I think and realistically we only need to fade a big run from Wilson and if they are up big I think they will avoid him having too many carries for injury reasons.

Recommend £110 Stacy more rushing yards than Wilson @ 8/11 Ladbrokes.

Thanks Stu.

We got Restricted to £34.38, so we took £33.

BET PLACED

Urgh, when did you get restricted by Ladbrokes?

What have you got left? Just Hills and Chandlers?

I've been randomly Restricted by them for around 3 months now. Not seriously restricted, 365/PP style, I can still get all I want 95% of the time.  They will allow me as much as I need on reasonably liquid markets, such as Horses, NFL & Football outrights, but I'm generally rejected on the thinner markets such as NFL props, as this one was.

I can still get most of my bets on at Ladbrokes, Corals, Boyles, BetFred, Sporting Bet, & BMU.

[tikay]

I notice that two of the recs Neil made yesterday at Betting Emporium are for tonight's game and although not super strong on his staking plan we can beat the price on both with betfair, I haven't checked any other site as just home from work/gym but assuming that is best price we should be betting both tonight .

Well reminded, thank you.

We have backed both, to modest stakes. (Approx £40 each, details in morning).

BETTING EMPORIUM

St Louis v Seattle

St Louis +13.5 @ 20/21

UNDER 43.5 points @ 19/20


BETS PLACED

Booooom

Double BOOM even, & many thanks to KMac for reminding me to get on the remaining two Betting Emporium NFL selections of the weekend. I missed the rest, due to work, but at least we got those two.

I will detail the bets properly shortly, I was not able to last night, as I was pokering.

[tikay]

I think there is a bet in the NFL tonight which represents very good value.  Ladbrokes have a rushing matchbet between Zac Stacy (RB for the Rams) and Russell Wilson (QB for the Seahawks).  It is pretty unusual to have a rushing matchbet between a QB and a RB in the first place because the running back is obviously going to get more carries.  Wilson is a somewhat exceptional QB and averages 35 yards a game and the Rams have a horrible rush defense so he figures for more tonight.  Stacy has been something of a revelation since he started and is averaging 4.3 yards a carry and is averaging 70 yards per game.  Ladbrokes initially priced it at 4/5 Stacy which on these stats would probably be about right although I think I would prefer Stacy marginally at those prices but here is the kicker.  Stacy's stats are based on games with Sam Bradford as the QB.  Bradford is a legit elite QB.  He got injured in the last game and is replaced here by Kellen Clemens.  In preseason Clemens threw 4 interceptions in one game.  The Rams have made no real bones about the fact they don't fancy him to the degree that they actually tried to sign a 76yo (or something) Brett Favre this week.  This week Zach Stacy will be their offense.  I just don't see that they will trust Clemens to throw the ball especially not against a Seahawks pass defense that is very, very good.  Their Rush Defense is good but at least they have a weapon of sorts against that and I would be amazed if Stacy didn't have 20+ carries this week.  The only real downside is if they go behind big early and just have to throw the ball but even then I am not sure they will risk Clemens making those kind of high risk plays.  I think Stacy should be 1/2 maximum.  8/11 now represents good value I think and realistically we only need to fade a big run from Wilson and if they are up big I think they will avoid him having too many carries for injury reasons.

Recommend £110 Stacy more rushing yards than Wilson @ 8/11 Ladbrokes.

Oh my word, read & weep.

That might go down as one of THE great spots we've seen in a while, well done, & thanks, Stu.

Wilson - 16 yards

Stacy - 134 yards

Not even a sweat.

[tikay]

For TIGHTY

The three completed bets which were placed last night are summarised below.

There were several others I still have to do the Admin for, I'll do those after I've cleared my overnight work stuff.

Redarmi Bet, Rushing Yards.

£33 @ 8/11, Ladbrokes


NFL Player Props 
Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams - Player Props
Most Rushing Yards Match Bet 1 
2013-10-29 00:40:00
Z Stacy +0.0 @ 8/11

Bet Placed At   28/10/2013 
 
Stake Per Line   £33.00 
 
Total Stake Paid   £33.00   

Returns   £57.00
 

The two Betting Emporium selections.

St Louis +13.5, BetVictor, £42 @ 20/21

UNDER 43.5, £40 @ 19/20, BetFred



10/28/2013 11:15:31 PM

207/
221

W:40.00

Single

Seattle Seahawks 14-6 St Louis Rams/Total Points

Under 43.5
19/20

£40.00

£78.00
 
_______


28/10/2013 GBP 42.00 Single: ST. LOUIS RAMS +13.5 @ 20/21




Betid 34741856400 Time: 00:13 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 42.00







Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams NFL Matches
Handicap - Match

St. Louis Rams +13.5

20/21

[horseplayer]

good work last night all

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month  £503.56

Outstanding Bets £2723.66

ONE Free bet to use William Hill by Saturday

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A profit of £102 yesterday from the three successful NFL tips mentioned by tikay above on the St Louis game last night

As predicted, the Rams did not trust too much in their understudy quarterback Clemens and trusted their ground game which ran for over 200 yards against the third best defense in the league. The rushing yards bet was never in doubt

Neither were the supremacy or points bets, the game ended 14-9, and the Seahawks aren't the most dynamic offensive team either

NFL continues to be one of our better sports. Loads of expertise around, and a profit of nearly £830 and a ROI of just under 15% confirms that

We have some nice longer term positions too with the Chiefs, Bengals and the Quarterbacks

Talking of which, after Week 8:

1   Peyton Manning, QB   DEN   2,919   
2   Matthew Stafford, QB DET 2,617   
3   Drew Brees, QB    NO   2,290   
4   Andy Dalton, QB CIN 2,249   
5   Matt Ryan, QB   ATL   2,223   
6   Tony Romo, QB DAL 2,216

So we currently have 2,3, and 5 each way paying 4 places at prices up to 10-1. From memory, Manning, Stafford, Dalton and Romo are yet to have their bye weeks

Away from the NFL Watford drew, a touch unluckily at Brighton last night. They are 7th, one place off the play offs. Comfortably placed for the top half bet and in touch for the promotion leg. Next up, Leicester at home on Sky on Saturday lunchtime. A big one, for both teams.