Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

la liga

1Barcelona      P10     PTS28
2Atletico Madrid  P10   PTS27
3Real Madrid    P10     PTS 22
4Villarreal     P10        PTS 20
5Athletic Bilbao  P10   PTS 19


would have snapped your hand of for bilbao and villa to be in this position when i placed the bet.

Just a shame altetico have been so good, still a small hope europe takes priority.

[tikay]

Big move in the strictly market today, not sure why, apart from the obv that our girl Nat is the best dancer. Wonder if there's some people seeing voting figs. Gumball now 6/4 and 5/4 across the board, Sophie is 3/1 or bigger generally. Hope this keeps up.

Think the last few eviction markets, both Strictly and X Factor, we've all been able to call, strikes me we should be talkin em over and gettin involved. Strictly is wide open this week, with Fiona 5/2 fave. Really u need to think in pairs, as not only does your bet need to be in the bottom two, they need to lose the judges' vote. I can see both Dave and Mark being voted out if they get in the bottom two, but that might be a big if. I'm not sure who'd they go with if it's Rachel and Fiona, my feeling is maybe Rachel?
http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/next-elimination

Rachel had a bounce last week, which is normal after being in the bottom two the previous, and they usually revert to type two weeks after. I think the same might be the case in X Factor, where Kingsland Road bounced after a bottom 2 but might sink again. They're 10/3 with Coral, which is tempting. Abi is 9/4 jolly and boy Sam , who I really think all the judges dislike 7/2
http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/x-factor/next-elimination

In Strictly's top man betting we (me and anyone who followed the rec while grandad was dithering) have a good bet at 13/2 on Ben but I wouldn't bother now, he's 7/2 best and 11/4 in a lot of places. He's not great, neither is Ashley who is market leader. Ashley is not famous and is very dull tho, which helps our cause. Can't see anyone else getting into this race.

I know Tikay likes to take the mick on novelty bets, but was talkin to Chompy in Luton and we both agreed that when there's billions being bet on every football or American football game, it's a lot harder to find ricks than in novelty markets.
If I was forced to have a bet on these two evictions I'd go Rachel and Abi, but not convinced enough to have a bet never mind a rec (yet!). Any thoughts?

Joking aside, Jeff, yes, I 100% agree with that, these Markets often seem to contain some pretty inaccurate prices.

In truth, I find all the Strictly/BB/CBB/X-Factor Posts hard to read, because they hold no interest to me, betting apart. I can grasp the nuances pretty quickly on any sports-based discussion, but when I read some of these, my eyes glaze over, as I've never watched an episode of any of them, so they make no sense to me, & I'm whistling in the dark.

I trust our "Novelty regulars", I have to, & we've done very well on them I think, so we'll continue.

Have to say, though, if I were forced to watch the Shows in order to bet, that'd be a step too far for me.

Each to their own.

[tikay]

Daily Report

Profit on Month  £503.56

Outstanding Bets £2723.66

ONE Free bet to use William Hill by Saturday

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A profit of £102 yesterday from the three successful NFL tips mentioned by tikay above on the St Louis game last night

As predicted, the Rams did not trust too much in their understudy quarterback Clemens and trusted their ground game which ran for over 200 yards against the third best defense in the league. The rushing yards bet was never in doubt

Neither were the supremacy or points bets, the game ended 14-9, and the Seahawks aren't the most dynamic offensive team either

NFL continues to be one of our better sports. Loads of expertise around, and a profit of nearly £830 and a ROI of just under 15% confirms that

We have some nice longer term positions too with the Chiefs, Bengals and the Quarterbacks

Talking of which, after Week 8:

1   Peyton Manning, QB   DEN   2,919   
2   Matthew Stafford, QB DET 2,617   
3   Drew Brees, QB    NO   2,290   
4   Andy Dalton, QB CIN 2,249   
5   Matt Ryan, QB   ATL   2,223   
6   Tony Romo, QB DAL 2,216

So we currently have 2,3, and 5 each way paying 4 places at prices up to 10-1. From memory, Manning, Stafford, Dalton and Romo are yet to have their bye weeks

Away from the NFL Watford drew, a touch unluckily at Brighton last night. They are 7th, one place off the play offs. Comfortably placed for the top half bet and in touch for the promotion leg. Next up, Leicester at home on Sky on Saturday lunchtime. A big one, for both teams.

Thanks Rich, & yes, worth noting how well we do on NFL, & how many really shrewd judges we have helping us.

I missed Neil's "two biggest bets of the season" over the weekend, too, due to work.

If only the season was not so short.

We have some cracking long-term NFL stuff, too.

Really pleased with our whole forward book at present, &, fingers crossed, October will be another profitable month, our sixth on the bounce.

The downturn must be round the corner, it's inevitable, but we've got some wool on our backs now, & can take a few hits if need be.

I will Update the BETS thread shortly, I'm pulled all over the place recently, & have lost a bit of discipline with the Admin. If only there were more hours in the day. 

[tikay]

I see this syndicate which staked 35k on the Coral Jackpot coupon are waiting on Brighton or draw for 1m, looks like they want Coral to make them an offer which doesn't seem to be forthcoming.
I do notice the Money has came for Watford so they could be getting out.

So these guys got the lot?

Yikes, well done them.

Can someone tell me something about them, or is there a website or whatever?

[BigAdz]

"We've got some wool on our backs"

Having that one!

[tikay]

I notice that two of the recs Neil made yesterday at Betting Emporium are for tonight's game and although not super strong on his staking plan we can beat the price on both with betfair, I haven't checked any other site as just home from work/gym but assuming that is best price we should be betting both tonight .

That was a very useful nudge Mr Kmac, thank you.

[tikay]

"We've got some wool on our backs"

Having that one!

My Chairman at B & K, John Kirkland, & of course Warren Buffett, both used that phrase a lot.

Both liked to tuck a bit of profit away for potential hard times ahead. Prudency ftw. 

[tikay]

I think there is a bet in the NFL tonight which represents very good value.  Ladbrokes have a rushing matchbet between Zac Stacy (RB for the Rams) and Russell Wilson (QB for the Seahawks).  It is pretty unusual to have a rushing matchbet between a QB and a RB in the first place because the running back is obviously going to get more carries.  Wilson is a somewhat exceptional QB and averages 35 yards a game and the Rams have a horrible rush defense so he figures for more tonight.  Stacy has been something of a revelation since he started and is averaging 4.3 yards a carry and is averaging 70 yards per game.  Ladbrokes initially priced it at 4/5 Stacy which on these stats would probably be about right although I think I would prefer Stacy marginally at those prices but here is the kicker.  Stacy's stats are based on games with Sam Bradford as the QB.  Bradford is a legit elite QB.  He got injured in the last game and is replaced here by Kellen Clemens.  In preseason Clemens threw 4 interceptions in one game.  The Rams have made no real bones about the fact they don't fancy him to the degree that they actually tried to sign a 76yo (or something) Brett Favre this week.  This week Zach Stacy will be their offense.  I just don't see that they will trust Clemens to throw the ball especially not against a Seahawks pass defense that is very, very good.  Their Rush Defense is good but at least they have a weapon of sorts against that and I would be amazed if Stacy didn't have 20+ carries this week.  The only real downside is if they go behind big early and just have to throw the ball but even then I am not sure they will risk Clemens making those kind of high risk plays.  I think Stacy should be 1/2 maximum.  8/11 now represents good value I think and realistically we only need to fade a big run from Wilson and if they are up big I think they will avoid him having too many carries for injury reasons.

Recommend £110 Stacy more rushing yards than Wilson @ 8/11 Ladbrokes.

Just wanted to say what a great bet that was Stu, thanks,.

I don't know how you guys even find bets like that, I searched Ladbrokes site for 15 minutes, clicked every market I could find, but could not even see it, I had to find it on Oddschecker eventually, & click through from there.

What a shame we got so badly Restricted. It was 10/11 earlier, too.

Great stuff, it was a perfect squeeze this morning, 3 from 3.

[Tal]

F1 news: Ross Brawn will leave Mercedes at the end of the season

Bwin has a market for the constructors' championship without Red Bull:

Mercedes 4/5
Ferrari 2/1
Lotus 7/2

(111%)

Current position is:

Mercedes  313 points
Ferrari        309
Lotus          285


Massa isn't setting the world alight but Red Bull look to be so dominant at the moment that it will be hard for teams to accumulate many more points than their rivals. Three grands prix left: Abu Dhabi (which last year saw Lotus's Raikonnen narrowly edge out Fernando Alonso of Ferrari), USA (Hamilton of Mclaren beat Vettel and Alonso) and Brazil's famous Interlagos circuit (Button won comfortably ahead of the two Ferraris).

Interested in whether there's anything to be gained from a bet on any of these three teams in the view of our F1 Elders.

[tikay]

F1 news: Ross Brawn will leave Mercedes at the end of the season

Bwin has a market for the constructors' championship without Red Bull:

Mercedes 4/5
Ferrari 2/1
Lotus 7/2

(111%)

Current position is:

Mercedes  313 points
Ferrari        309
Lotus          285


Massa isn't setting the world alight but Red Bull look to be so dominant at the moment that it will be hard for teams to accumulate many more points than their rivals. Three grands prix left: Abu Dhabi (which last year saw Lotus's Raikonnen narrowly edge out Fernando Alonso of Ferrari), USA (Hamilton of Mclaren beat Vettel and Alonso) and Brazil's famous Interlagos circuit (Button won comfortably ahead of the two Ferraris).

Interested in whether there's anything to be gained from a bet on any of these three teams in the view of our F1 Elders.

Is that recent news? Quite a blow that. Retiring, or going elsewhere?

[The Camel]

Have the ROI got any fixtures slated apart from the Poland game?

If Big Mick is going to get the job, they might let him have the rest of the season with Ipswich and start afresh in the summer

Obv not an issue if O'Neill is getting the job

[kpnuts]

Have the ROI got any fixtures slated apart from the Poland game?

If Big Mick is going to get the job, they might let him have the rest of the season with Ipswich and start afresh in the summer

Obv not an issue if O'Neill is getting the job

Think FAI still trying to line one up for Nov 15. Wanted Hungary initially but they don't want to play. Slovenia still a possibility, but as of now just the Poles on Nov 19 afaik.

[The Camel]

Have the ROI got any fixtures slated apart from the Poland game?

If Big Mick is going to get the job, they might let him have the rest of the season with Ipswich and start afresh in the summer

Obv not an issue if O'Neill is getting the job

Think FAI still trying to line one up for Nov 15. Wanted Hungary initially but they don't want to play. Slovenia still a possibility, but as of now just the Poles on Nov 19 afaik.

I mean post Poland is there any games lined up?

Pretty pointless taking Mick from his job for one (or two) pointless friendlies isn't it?

I doubt they will even have a get together before the summer after Nov 19, will they?

[kpnuts]

Friendly at home to Serbia early March only one slated. Don't think we'll be looking for any more games after Poland other than that, until June when we'll probably be WC warm-up fodder for someone.

[Tal]

F1 news: Ross Brawn will leave Mercedes at the end of the season

Bwin has a market for the constructors' championship without Red Bull:

Mercedes 4/5
Ferrari 2/1
Lotus 7/2

(111%)

Current position is:

Mercedes  313 points
Ferrari        309
Lotus          285


Massa isn't setting the world alight but Red Bull look to be so dominant at the moment that it will be hard for teams to accumulate many more points than their rivals. Three grands prix left: Abu Dhabi (which last year saw Lotus's Raikonnen narrowly edge out Fernando Alonso of Ferrari), USA (Hamilton of Mclaren beat Vettel and Alonso) and Brazil's famous Interlagos circuit (Button won comfortably ahead of the two Ferraris).

Interested in whether there's anything to be gained from a bet on any of these three teams in the view of our F1 Elders.

Is that recent news? Quite a blow that. Retiring, or going elsewhere?

Most teams have one Principal: Red Bull has Christian Horner, Lotus Eric Boullier, Mclaren Martin Whitmarsh and so on. Mercedes has a newish management structure that is much less defined than its rivals'. This has become a problem for Brawn, who is used to being the main man, from Ferrari to Mclaren to his own team. It's been rumoured for a while that he might go and he said himself that he needs to have a clear understanding of what he will be asked to do before he can decide whether he wants to do it.

Now he knows and he's off.

It's a surprise in that he's one of the most respected technical guys in F1 and Mercedes need someone to pull those strings in order to challenge for titles. But they have kept recruiting in the last couple of years, so it's not all that surprising to see someone feel usurped. It can't be a happy camp at Mercedes right now. But maybe that's no more true now than it was a few months ago.