Tips for Tikay

[aaron1867]

I am not sure how Wigan are 7/4 at home to QPR tonight.

Wigan home results:

D 2-2 Doncaster
D 2-2 M'boro
W 2-1 Forest
W 2-0 Ipswich
W 2-1 Blackburn

11pts from 15, generally scoring 2 a game.

QPR away results:

D 1-1 Huddersfield
W 1-0 Bolton
W 1-0 Leeds
W 1-0 Yeovil
D 2-2 Millwall
L 2-0 Burnley

11 pts from 18, generally  scoring a goal a game, but not letting many in.

You look at this and maybe it is selective, but I would say Wigan have played a very decent set of teams, whilst it seems QPR struggle against decent teams, although the Leeds result is what it is.

Think QPR will need to score tonight to get anything from the game and I have already backed Wigan for the win.

Suggest £20 with Wigan @ 7/4 with Victor. Edit, 7/4 gone & 17/10 best price now, general price all around though.

[Tal]

TIIIMMMMBBBEEEEERRRRR!

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-actor

Given who the film is about, is Idris worth a tickle  @ 14/1 with the jokers?

Didn't work for Morgan Freeman

[tikay]

I am not sure how Wigan are 7/4 at home to QPR tonight.

Wigan home results:

D 2-2 Doncaster
D 2-2 M'boro
W 2-1 Forest
W 2-0 Ipswich
W 2-1 Blackburn

11pts from 15, generally scoring 2 a game.

QPR away results:

D 1-1 Huddersfield
W 1-0 Bolton
W 1-0 Leeds
W 1-0 Yeovil
D 2-2 Millwall
L 2-0 Burnley

11 pts from 18, generally  scoring a goal a game, but not letting many in.

You look at this and maybe it is selective, but I would say Wigan have played a very decent set of teams, whilst it seems QPR struggle against decent teams, although the Leeds result is what it is.

Think QPR will need to score tonight to get anything from the game and I have already backed Wigan for the win.

Suggest £20 with Wigan @ 7/4 with Victor.

Hi Aaron.

That price looks about right to me, certainly not far out, so I think we'll swerve this one.

Good luck with your bet, though.

[Marky147]

TIIIMMMMBBBEEEEERRRRR!

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-actor

Given who the film is about, is Idris worth a tickle  @ 14/1 with the jokers?

Didn't work for Morgan Freeman

Saves me a score, cheers

[BigAdz]

TIIIMMMMBBBEEEEERRRRR!

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-actor

Given who the film is about, is Idris worth a tickle  @ 14/1 with the jokers?

Is he still on his deathbed?.....not Idris.....

[Marky147]

TIIIMMMMBBBEEEEERRRRR!

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-actor

Given who the film is about, is Idris worth a tickle  @ 14/1 with the jokers?

Is he still on his deathbed?.....not Idris.....

Wiki says he discharged himself from hospital a couple months ago and is at home.

[Tal]

TIIIMMMMBBBEEEEERRRRR!

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-actor

Given who the film is about, is Idris worth a tickle  @ 14/1 with the jokers?

Is he still on his deathbed?.....not Idris.....

He's still alive. The Academy doesn't seem to be all that sentimental these days. I thought they might go with Zero Dark Thirty last year and that went about as well as pretty much every bet I had over the weekend (damn you, Terrell Pryor and your 93 yard run!).

Nevertheless, I do like the idea of opposing the favourite after the foregone conclusion of Cecil Day-Lewis's lad winning for his terrible impression of Isambard Kingdom Brunel (sounded more like a Yank if you ask me. All he got right was the hat). Who loves a surprise ending more than Hollywood?

When does the Academy vote?

[tikay]

TIIIMMMMBBBEEEEERRRRR!

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-actor

Given who the film is about, is Idris worth a tickle  @ 14/1 with the jokers?

Is he still on his deathbed?.....not Idris.....

He's still alive. The Academy doesn't seem to be all that sentimental these days. I thought they might go with Zero Dark Thirty last year and that went about as well as pretty much every bet I had over the weekend (damn you, Terrell Pryor and your 93 yard run!).

Nevertheless, I do like the idea of opposing the favourite after the foregone conclusion of Cecil Day-Lewis's lad winning for his terrible impression of Isambard Kingdom Brunel (sounded more like a Yank if you ask me. All he got right was the hat). Who loves a surprise ending more than Hollywood?

When does the Academy vote?

What film is that, Simon?

I'm a  big IKB fanboy, obviously!

[Tal]

Click to see full-size image.

(Tried to make a funny. Backfired)

[Marky147]

No idea Adz tbh, big jump handicaps not my thing at all. Neil C the man for the job.

I'm more interested in Paddy Power's 7-1 about Rylan Clark taking down I'm a Celebritah. He was a 4-1 with Ladbrokes in March to be in the jungle; if he goes in he wins. End of. 4-6 would be valoo.

A bit of research dug up that he flew out to LA yesterday. US X Factor maybe?

Thinking about it a bit more, I would prefer to back Joey Essex for this.

Also, surely Gazza can't be going in?

The guy has enough problems living in the UK, so not sure he would last too long in the jungle!

[tikay]

Click to see full-size image.

(Tried to make a funny. Backfired)

Ha!

Bugger.

[TightEnd]

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to play the Miami Dolphins tomorow night on Thursday Night football on NFLN and SkySports

We have the Bengals to win the NFCN and AFC and the Dolphins to win the AFC East

One division bet is looking good, one less so

AFC North   W   L   T   Win %
Cincinnati    6    2    0    .750
Baltimore    3    4    0    .429
Cleveland    3    5    0    .375
Pittsburgh 2    5    0    .286

AFC East   W   L   T   Win %
New England    6    2    0    .750
New York Jets    4    4    0    .500
Miami    3    4    0    .429
Buffalo    3    5    0    .375

The Bengals are favourites, 3 points on the spread to win their fifth game on the trot. This is a trap game though, as Miami have one of the best records as a home dog in recent years

Typically the Dolphins in recent years have had a stout defense and have struggled to create offense. This has been slowly changing, but unconvincingly at times with a running game that remains below par and the jury still out on Tannehill the Quarterback.

The idea I wanted to promulgate was to back the Bengals to score over 23.5 points at Evens, SportingBet

Why is this?

In eight games this season the Bengals have scored 197 points, averaging 24 points a game, but this raw data masks a big improvement in offensive performance in the last three weeks with 27,27 and 49 points scored

QB Andy Dalton is often seen, correctly on the evidence of the past two seasons, as the Bengals caveat but the fact remains that he has a wealth of attacking options to choose from

- AJ Green leads the AFC with 734 receiving yards and is in the Megatron/Bryant category
- Because Green draws double teams, the WR on the other side Marvin Jones benefits. He has 7 TDs so far this season
- At RB Giovani Bernard is a thread both rushing and receiving out of the backfield
- Both TightEnds Eifert and Gresham are solid options, with nearly 300 receiving yards each

Now that the offense has started to click, they should be in most games capable of exceeding 23.5 points

On the other side the Dolphins have conceded 167 points in 7 games, average 24 points a game.

Again though, the last few games tells a better story for the bet, conceding more than 22 points in each of the last five games. The Dolphins rank 21 of 32 in Defense in the NFL, a far cry from the performance of recent seasons


As back up the Bengals, who have one of the better defenses in the league are banged up on defense, losing Leon Hall (their number 1 cornerback) and Rey Mualuaga (their starting linebacker) to injuries. This significance of this is that the Bengals may have to score more points to win tomorrow

Looking at the market

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cincinnati-bengals-at-miami-dolphins/total-cincinnati-bengals-points

Sporting Bet over over 23.5 at evens, ie without the bookmaker margin normally built into spread sprices. This is a price worth taking because the significant pivot points in NFL spreads are in multiples of 3 and 7....common scores are 21,24,27 etc

So the difference between taking Evens over 23.5 and 10/11 over 23 as is offered elsewhere is miniscule. A difference between 23.5 and 24 is potentially more significant

To conclude, I do not see much downside below 23 points (three touchdowns and a field goal typically). I see some upside. This type of asymmetric risk is rare in points spreads. Before I looked, I had Bengals points priced at +/- 27

Recommendation

Cincinnati Bengals over 23.5 points at Miiami Dolphins £50 Evens SportingBet, 31st October

[JaffaCake]

Just catching up on Fred, have to say my first thought was that 14/1 on Idris looked tempting, know nothing of the film but he's a fine actor and the subject works.

That Bailey cricket bet is one of the best ever, good work tighty

[BigAdz]

No idea Adz tbh, big jump handicaps not my thing at all. Neil C the man for the job.

I'm more interested in Paddy Power's 7-1 about Rylan Clark taking down I'm a Celebritah. He was a 4-1 with Ladbrokes in March to be in the jungle; if he goes in he wins. End of. 4-6 would be valoo.

A bit of research dug up that he flew out to LA yesterday. US X Factor maybe?

Thinking about it a bit more, I would prefer to back Joey Essex for this.

Also, surely Gazza can't be going in?

The guy has enough problems living in the UK, so not sure he would last too long in the jungle!

Is Joey still playing the "shocked that London is the capital" card?

I just recall him getting f all votes when I weighed in on him for Splash, so maybe not as popular as you think?

Top heavy men wise at the top. Talking of which I see Lucy Pargetter is down. I can see her doing well, especially if she washes a lot.

[Tal]

I'm going to regret this...

Who?