Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Sorry I was excited. MCW is Michael Carter-Williams, rookie for Philadelphia 76ers. He made his debut yesterday in a tevelvised game against Miami, obv the best team.

He scored 22 points, had 12 assists, nine steals (a record in a first game and the joint most ever by a 76er and seven rebounds. Hard to put into context but Magic Johnson says he's gonna win Rookie of the Year now after watching that game, lots of places calling it the best debut in years.

Last year Damian Lillard, also a point guard, won rookie of the year with averages of 19 points, 6.1 assists, 3.1 rebounds, not sure on steals, probably about 1.5, the best in the league is always around 3 per game so u can see that was freakishly good. Just google Michael Carter-Williams and read some of the superlatives being used.

Bet is good because he's on a terrible team and has stated his aim is to win rookie of the year. He's 6'6, pretty big for a PG (they're always the shortest on team) and his long arms means he'll get plenty of steals and some blocks, all bonuses when his first job is assists then points.

Fred backed him at 14/1 I think, recommend was at 16s possibly, told u on Saturday he was the one to press having watched a lot of pre-season. On the flip side, it looks like our other 14/1 shot Olynyk, who was actually backed into 7/1 before the off, is gonna have to fight for court time so defo won't set the world on fire yet, might take him a while to make his mark at Boston.

As an aside, there's defo a few ricks in the player markets in the early season, lots of lazy bookies just using career or last season averages to set lines, when some players are on new teams or have new roles where they're playing a different game. Watch this space

Thanks Jeff.

It was the "22/12/9/7" bit that flummoxed me, but the rest of that post helps me a lot.

I'm also keen on those "Season Player Bets", we did a couple last year, MVP & one other, I think, & we had a lovely MVP winner as I recall.

I'm not at all keen, being over a grand poorer because of them, on betting on games, either results or points, as I think the Markets are near perfectly priced, & it must be rare to find one 10% wrong, which is what we would need long-term, but I think, as you suggest, the Markets are far from perfect on the sort of bets we have here. And if a few go wrong, so be it, at the prices you suggested, it gives us some wriggle-room to pay for a few duds.

It rather reminds me of Tighty's George bailey bet. The Main Markets were tough to beat, but for those prepared to dig a little deeper, there is still value to be found.

Bets like MCW, & Bailey, are far and away my favourite Fred bets, we are blessed to have some regulars here who stick these up for us. 

[horseplayer]

BREEDERS CUP RACE BY RACE PREVIEW

FRIDAY

MARATHON http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/20:45/winner

Have liked LONDON BRIDGE for a long time for this, encouraging to see him well backed over here all week but i still think will be a bigger price on the tote board tommorow (8/1 morning line).

There are only two guaranteed stayers amongst the home group; Ever Rider and Pool Play.

Pool Play just seems to have gone but could rekindle for this test and Ever Rider is solid but beatable. The rest cant/wont stay. Further reports today suggest London Bridge is working a dream on the dirt as expected.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/20:45/winner

BET SUGGESTION £20 win us tote (Any firm) LONDON BRIDGE £10 win EVER RIDER 5/1 vcbet or coral (would not put anybody of having boxed combinations the 3 mentioned)


JUVENILLE TURF http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/21:25/winner

Very open event but a cracking renewal. Like two rags at big prices who had bad trips with one of the favoured horses last time. Bon Accord and Bashart both covered 5+ more lengths last time than Poker Player are bigger prices despite narrow defeats they will do me here.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/21:25/winner

BET SUGGESTION £10 Win BON ACCORD 25/1 general and £10 win BASHART 12/1 coral


DIRT MILE http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:05/winner

Not a race i like really but have thrown sheckles at a big priced unexposed horse. Holy Lute is still improving got the worst trip ever last time (Stumbled pushed out very wide) and has never had the chance to race on fast dirt something this weeks works suggest may improve him.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:05/winner

BET SUGGESTION £15 HOLY LUTE 25/1 general

JUVENILE FILLES TURF http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:50/winner

Brilliant renewal Vorda probably brings most impressive "form" but distance is a major query, the american form to me looks good but much of a muchness. There seems quite a bit of momentum behind DANCING HOUSE in America. She is only a maiden winner but unlike most of these is bred for a mile and could improve bundles.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:50/winner

BET SUGGESTION £10 win Dancing House 40/1 888sport (ideally) if not betfair (About 38) 33/1 is fine as well.



BREEDERS CUP DISTAFF http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/23:35/winner

No bet for me here



BET SUGGESTIONS

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/20:45/winner

BET SUGGESTION £20 win us tote (Any firm) LONDON BRIDGE £10 win EVER RIDER 5/1 vcbet or coral (would not put anybody of having boxed combinations the 3 mentioned)

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/21:25/winner

BET SUGGESTION £10 Win BON ACCORD 25/1 general and £10 win BASHART 12/1 coral

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:05/winner

BET SUGGESTION £15 HOLY LUTE 25/1 general

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:50/winner

BET SUGGESTION £10 win Dancing House 40/1 888sport (ideally) if not betfair (About 38) 33/1 is fine as well.

Total Stakes = £75.00

Will not be around at all Saturday so will be putting up a preview/bets for then late Friday Night.

[tikay]

BREEDERS CUP RACE BY RACE PREVIEW

FRIDAY

MARATHON http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/20:45/winner

Have liked LONDON BRIDGE for a long time for this, encouraging to see him well backed over here all week but i still think will be a bigger price on the tote board tommorow. There are only two guaranteed stayers amongst the home group; Ever Rider and Pool Play.
Pool Play just seems to have gone but could rekindle for this test and Ever Rider is solid but beatable. The rest cant/wont stay. Further reports today suggest London Bridge is working a dream on the dirt as expected.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/20:45/winner BET SUGGESTION £20 win us tote (Any firm) LONDON BRIDGE £10 win EVER RIDER 5/1 vcbet or coral (would not put anybody of having boxed combinations the 3 mentioned)


JUVENILLE TURF http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/21:25/winner

Very open event but a cracking renewal. Like two rags at big prices who had bad trips with one of the favoured horses last time. Bon Accord and Bashart both covered 5+ more lengths last time than Poker Player and are bigger prices despite narrow defeats they will do me here.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/21:25/winner BET SUGGESTION £10 Win BON ACCORD 25/1 general and £10 win BASHART 12/1 coral


DIRT MILE http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:05/winner

Not a race i like really but have thrown sheckles at a big priced unexposed horse. Holy Lute is still improving got the worst trip ever last time (Stumbled pushed out very wide) and has never had the chance to race on fast dirt something this weeks works suggest may improve him.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:05/winner BET SUGGESTION £15 HOLY LUTE 25/1 general

JUVENILE FILLES TURF http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:50/winner

Brilliant renewal Vorda probably brings most impressive "form" but distance is a major query, the american form to me looks good but much of a muchness. There seems quite a bit of momentum behind DANCING HOUSE in America. She is only a maiden winner but unlike most of these is bred for a mile and could improve bundles.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:50/winner BET SUGGESTION £10 win Dancing House 40/1 888sport (ideally) if not betfair (About 38) 33/1 is fine as well.



BREEDERS CUP DISTAFF http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/23:35/winner

No bet for me here



BET SUGGESTIONS

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/20:45/winner BET SUGGESTION £20 win us tote (Any firm) LONDON BRIDGE £10 win EVER RIDER 5/1 vcbet or coral (would not put anybody of having boxed combinations the 3 mentioned)

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/21:25/winner BET SUGGESTION £10 Win BON ACCORD 25/1 general and £10 win BASHART 12/1 coral

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:05/winner BET SUGGESTION £15 HOLY LUTE 25/1 general

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:50/winner BET SUGGESTION £10 win Dancing House 40/1 888sport (ideally) if not betfair (About 38) 33/1 is fine as well.

Total Stakes = £75.00

Will not be around at all Saturday so will be putting up a preview/bets for then late Friday Night.

Wow, you've put some work into that John, thank you.

I'm working tonight (in 15 minutes, hence a bit rushed), & Saturday night, but I'll get on all of these, & confirm everything as soon as I can.

[horseplayer]

unlikely to change much price wise between now and the morning Tikay so dont rush

Plenty of rags, one winner would be nice, two lovely and three probably impossible

[tikay]

BREEDERS CUP RACE BY RACE PREVIEW

FRIDAY

MARATHON http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/20:45/winner

Have liked LONDON BRIDGE for a long time for this, encouraging to see him well backed over here all week but i still think will be a bigger price on the tote board tommorow (8/1 morning line).

There are only two guaranteed stayers amongst the home group; Ever Rider and Pool Play.

Pool Play just seems to have gone but could rekindle for this test and Ever Rider is solid but beatable. The rest cant/wont stay. Further reports today suggest London Bridge is working a dream on the dirt as expected.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/20:45/winner

BET SUGGESTION £20 win us tote (Any firm) LONDON BRIDGE £10 win EVER RIDER 5/1 vcbet or coral (would not put anybody of having boxed combinations the 3 mentioned)


JUVENILLE TURF http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/21:25/winner

Very open event but a cracking renewal. Like two rags at big prices who had bad trips with one of the favoured horses last time. Bon Accord and Bashart both covered 5+ more lengths last time than Poker Player are bigger prices despite narrow defeats they will do me here.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/21:25/winner

BET SUGGESTION £10 Win BON ACCORD 25/1 general and £10 win BASHART 12/1 coral


DIRT MILE http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:05/winner

Not a race i like really but have thrown sheckles at a big priced unexposed horse. Holy Lute is still improving got the worst trip ever last time (Stumbled pushed out very wide) and has never had the chance to race on fast dirt something this weeks works suggest may improve him.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:05/winner

BET SUGGESTION £15 HOLY LUTE 25/1 general

JUVENILE FILLES TURF http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:50/winner

Brilliant renewal Vorda probably brings most impressive "form" but distance is a major query, the american form to me looks good but much of a muchness. There seems quite a bit of momentum behind DANCING HOUSE in America. She is only a maiden winner but unlike most of these is bred for a mile and could improve bundles.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:50/winner

BET SUGGESTION £10 win Dancing House 40/1 888sport (ideally) if not betfair (About 38) 33/1 is fine as well.



BREEDERS CUP DISTAFF http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/23:35/winner

No bet for me here



BET SUGGESTIONS

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/20:45/winner

BET SUGGESTION £20 win us tote (Any firm) LONDON BRIDGE £10 win EVER RIDER 5/1 vcbet or coral (would not put anybody of having boxed combinations the 3 mentioned)

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/21:25/winner

BET SUGGESTION £10 Win BON ACCORD 25/1 general and £10 win BASHART 12/1 coral

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:05/winner

BET SUGGESTION £15 HOLY LUTE 25/1 general

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2013-11-01-santa-anita/22:50/winner

BET SUGGESTION £10 win Dancing House 40/1 888sport (ideally) if not betfair (About 38) 33/1 is fine as well.

Total Stakes = £75.00

Will not be around at all Saturday so will be putting up a preview/bets for then late Friday Night.

All done.

Will there be somewhere we can watch these, please?

6 BETS PLACED

[tikay]

unlikely to change much price wise between now and the morning Tikay so dont rush

Plenty of rags, one winner would be nice, two lovely and three probably impossible

One winner would do very nicely! Anyway, we have an interest now, & we had a good sweat on these last year, as I recall. 

If you can find us some way to view them, all the better.

OK, I'm outa here, gotta go to work now.

[horseplayer]

all races both nights on atr

[Bad Beat]

 This is for Tal...

 http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/10-2013/world-chess-championship-betting.aspx?ito=twitter

[BigAdz]

Would love to know Neil's thoughts on Breeders Cup.

Have spent a lot of time on it this week myself, but will leave the staking stuff to horsey and put my thoughts on Racing Thread tomorrow if anyone even vaguely interested. Gl

[BigAdz]

This is for Tal...

 http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/10-2013/world-chess-championship-betting.aspx?ito=twitter

Shock

1,I read an article on chess.

2, I enjoyed it!

[JoeBeevers]

Sorry I was excited. MCW is Michael Carter-Williams, rookie for Philadelphia 76ers. He made his debut yesterday in a tevelvised game against Miami, obv the best team.

He scored 22 points, had 12 assists, nine steals (a record in a first game and the joint most ever by a 76er and seven rebounds. Hard to put into context but Magic Johnson says he's gonna win Rookie of the Year now after watching that game, lots of places calling it the best debut in years.

Last year Damian Lillard, also a point guard, won rookie of the year with averages of 19 points, 6.1 assists, 3.1 rebounds, not sure on steals, probably about 1.5, the best in the league is always around 3 per game so u can see that was freakishly good. Just google Michael Carter-Williams and read some of the superlatives being used.

Bet is good because he's on a terrible team and has stated his aim is to win rookie of the year. He's 6'6, pretty big for a PG (they're always the shortest on team) and his long arms means he'll get plenty of steals and some blocks, all bonuses when his first job is assists then points.

Fred backed him at 14/1 I think, recommend was at 16s possibly, told u on Saturday he was the one to press having watched a lot of pre-season. On the flip side, it looks like our other 14/1 shot Olynyk, who was actually backed into 7/1 before the off, is gonna have to fight for court time so defo won't set the world on fire yet, might take him a while to make his mark at Boston.

As an aside, there's defo a few ricks in the player markets in the early season, lots of lazy bookies just using career or last season averages to set lines, when some players are on new teams or have new roles where they're playing a different game. Watch this space

Hi Jeff,
If you hadn't taken 14s and the market just went up would you consider 7/1 MCW a bet?

[The Camel]

Big moves in the ROI managers market..

McCarthy just been matched at 29/1 which might be bad news especially as O'Neill has shortened to 1/2ish.

But intriguingly Noel King has found some support too into about 4/1

Curiouser and curiouser.

[Doobs]

Big moves in the ROI managers market..

McCarthy just been matched at 29/1 which might be bad news especially as O'Neill has shortened to 1/2ish.

But intriguingly Noel King has found some support too into about 4/1

Curiouser and curiouser.

Ipswich announced earlier they had been no approach for McCarthy.

[The Camel]

Big moves in the ROI managers market..

McCarthy just been matched at 29/1 which might be bad news especially as O'Neill has shortened to 1/2ish.

But intriguingly Noel King has found some support too into about 4/1

Curiouser and curiouser.

Ipswich announced earlier they had been no approach for McCarthy.

As I speculated earlier, seems like there is no rush to appoint a manager until the summer anyway.

After Poland, they might have one more meaningless friendly in the New Year before some pre WC friendlies, which would be the perfect time for a new manager to evaluate his squad before the Euro qualifiers in the Autumn.

If they want McCarthy, leaving it to the summer to appoint him makes sense.

Worth a dollar at 30/1 surely?

[Marky147]

Big moves in the ROI managers market..

McCarthy just been matched at 29/1 which might be bad news especially as O'Neill has shortened to 1/2ish.

But intriguingly Noel King has found some support too into about 4/1

Curiouser and curiouser.

Ipswich announced earlier they had been no approach for McCarthy.

As I speculated earlier, seems like there is no rush to appoint a manager until the summer anyway.

After Poland, they might have one more meaningless friendly in the New Year before some pre WC friendlies, which would be the perfect time for a new manager to evaluate his squad before the Euro qualifiers in the Autumn.

If they want McCarthy, leaving it to the summer to appoint him makes sense.

Worth a dollar at 30/1 surely?

Does the Betfair market not close if King is still in charge on November 15th?

You can get 7/1 with Paddy on McCarthy though, and their market won't close until King has had 10 games, or their is an appointment.