Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Afternoon chaps.  Bit waylaid today.

Well done to horsey on the MON Ireland thing, & that incredible "most shots" thing last night.

Don't want to bok the golf bets yet, but great start in Aussie.

West Indies v India. Quite so.

Two suggestions need a bit of work.

1) The Conference (?) one by Ant. The price DOES look value (to me) but I'm still curious why the price is so big, given the bare facts. The bookies are mostly "in line", so something is not adding up here. No objections to getting on, just want to understsand the price first.

2) Atletico Madrid, mentioned by Aaron initially, then McGlashan. If I read it correctly, this one is not immediately time-precious. If there's genuine value though, I'll climb aboard.

I've gpt a few awkward days ahead work & personal wise, so bear with me please, & keep the stuff coming.

[Dubai]

"I'd be with you in taking Atletico in a match bet versus an English side, I fancy this Atletico side as much as any team outside of Bayern, Barca and Real"


You mean overall in it? Or if Athletico was drawn against an English side? Id take any of the 4 English sides over them if drawn together at evens, and the most likely one to be drawn against them is Man City and if evens was available (it wont be) id have one of my biggest bets of the year

Obviously none of that has anything to do with the respective outright value btw, so not detracting from the original bet which I don't have much opinion on

[Tal]

"I'd be with you in taking Atletico in a match bet versus an English side, I fancy this Atletico side as much as any team outside of Bayern, Barca and Real"


You mean overall in it? Or if Athletico was drawn against an English side? Id take any of the 4 English sides over them if drawn together at evens, and the most likely one to be drawn against them is Man City and if evens was available (it wont be) id have one of my biggest bets of the year

Obviously none of that has anything to do with the respective outright value btw, so not detracting from the original bet which I don't have much opinion on

[horseplayer]

i would be very keen to back madrid against man utd especially as they will probably be a little underestimated in the market at least early on

Not so sure against citeh, chelsea or arsenal

[Dubai]

Yeah obv at the moment United would be my smallest bet at evens but I figured wont be playing till Feb, should have time to sort things out a bit by then surely

[horseplayer]

agreed

you are right in respect i would be amazed if you could get evens man united to qualify against a madrid regardless of form they were in

[McGlashan]

"I'd be with you in taking Atletico in a match bet versus an English side, I fancy this Atletico side as much as any team outside of Bayern, Barca and Real"


You mean overall in it? Or if Athletico was drawn against an English side? Id take any of the 4 English sides over them if drawn together at evens, and the most likely one to be drawn against them is Man City and if evens was available (it wont be) id have one of my biggest bets of the year

Obviously none of that has anything to do with the respective outright value btw, so not detracting from the original bet which I don't have much opinion on

Both parts. I should have originally added that an English side will be an odds on favourite to qualify if they were drawn together.

[BigAdz]

McCoy gets his 4000 the way only he can. Mega ride!!

[a.sparrow]

Ravel Morrison 12/1 first and 5/1 anytime goal scorer on saturday?  

He is west hams joint top goal scorer with 4 goals in 10 games, West ham are currently without Vaz Te  who is their other joint scorer.  No Carroll eiter and Maiga hasnt played for the last 3 games so their  striking options are limited.  Norwhich don't really have any prolific scorers either and just got thumped 7-0 by city, this could work against the bet though as they will be playing much tighter are letting in 7 and trying to tighten up their defense, plus west ham are no man city.  I still think 5/1 for a player who has scored 4 goals in 10 games is a bit big, especially as I think he will be the most likely threat from a team with limited striking options.

Does anyone have any views on this?

[ripple11]

McCoy gets his 4000 the way only he can. Mega ride!!

 Yeh....such a typically brillant AP ride!

4000 

[GreekWay]

Can someone explain me how the whole thread works so I can follow and hopefully manage to place some bets?

Cheers,
George

[kukushkin88]

Ravel Morrison 12/1 first and 5/1 anytime goal scorer on saturday?  

He is west hams joint top goal scorer with 4 goals in 10 games, West ham are currently without Vaz Te  who is their other joint scorer.  No Carroll eiter and Maiga hasnt played for the last 3 games so their  striking options are limited.  Norwhich don't really have any prolific scorers either and just got thumped 7-0 by city, this could work against the bet though as they will be playing much tighter are letting in 7 and trying to tighten up their defense, plus west ham are no man city.  I still think 5/1 for a player who has scored 4 goals in 10 games is a bit big, especially as I think he will be the most likely threat from a team with limited striking options.

Does anyone have any views on this?

He was lively against the Swans without much of the ball, 12/1 is an OK bet imo, not so keen on 5's anytime. I do like Norwich at 8/5 for the game.

[tikay]

Can someone explain me how the whole thread works so I can follow and hopefully manage to place some bets?

Cheers,
George

Afternoon George, & thanks for the PM, I'm a bit behind with PM replies right now.

Glad you asked here as well, as I can reply here, & that will be useful for other Fred newcomers. Will reply a little later, bit busy right now.

Hope things are looking up at home, & great to hear from you.

[mondatoo]

Can someone explain me how the whole thread works so I can follow and hopefully manage to place some bets?

Cheers,
George

Afternoon George, & thanks for the PM, I'm a bit behind with PM replies right now.

Glad you asked here as well, as I can reply here, & that will be useful for other Fred newcomers. Will reply a little later, bit busy right now.

Hope things are looking up at home, & great to hear from you.

The opening post on page 1 explains it pretty well.

[aaron1867]

On a more selfish note, it's good to see Atlético Madrid cruising along nicely.

On a selfish note we can cheer them on together (as previously mentioned in the thread i liked them at 50-1ew).

Thoughts on this for Fred please.

Atletico Madrid are best priced 17-1 to win the Champions League.

They do look a very decent team and have already won their weak group winning 4 out of 4.

They seem to me like they have some very decent players & although they are nowhere near the best team in the league, I still think they can progress to at least the quaters looking how things are.

They have the inability to be drawn against either of the Spanish teams in the next round, whilst it looks certain they can not be drawn with Bayern either & the likelyhood is that Chelsea, Arsenal & Man United will win their groups. It would see them likely to face a weak team in the last 16 & I am sure that if they progress, they can still put up a game against any of the bigger teams, I would probably have them over any English team.

Not looking it as a win bet, but with possibility to lay it off later? Cheers

Hi Aaron your post wasn't entirely missed. The CL groups are shaping up like this:

1st                    2nd
man utd             bayer lev
real madrid         juve
psg                   olympiakos
bayern munich    man city
chelsea              shalke
arsenal              napoli/dortmund
atletico mad       zenit
barcelona          milan

I'd be with you in taking Atletico in a match bet versus an English side, I fancy this Atletico side as much as any team outside of Bayern, Barca and Real. For a long time they choked versus the Spanish big 2 but that looks to of turned now. Last season they won the Copa Del Roy final against Real who had home advantage and they went unbeaten over 2 legs vs Barca in the Spanish Charity Shield.

Since they were handed an easy group draw they've had 2 very noteworthy results. A very one sided 1-0 win at Real Madrid who were allowed an unusually low amount of shots on goal and a 2-1 comeback at Porto without their 2 best outfield players in Diego Costa and Arda Turan.

There looks to still be a bit of legs in the price to me, perhaps the thread could weigh on it. There's also the question of when to get on it, with top spot already locked up the knockout stages aren't till February.

Coral go 18-1, the machine goes 18.5/19.5.

Thanks for the reply.

I have gone on at 17's, looks like I am going to have to top up with 18's now available.

But do you like 18's? I look at it as the price could go either up or down with regards to who they are drawn with in the knockout stages & only see them in for a tighter game of they are drawn with Man City or Dortmund, but it's a big ask for Dortmund at this point.