Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

But even if they were bad bets you still shouldn't have lost anywhere near what you did.  That's why it's obviously just variance

[tikay]

Red, if Miami are struggling to score and Tampa, whilst poor, have the ability to score points, is Tampa to win outright worthy of consideration? Would the punters generally not oppose them, especially against a popular team?

http://www.betpal.com/miami-dolphins-at-tampa-bay-buccaneers-nfl-monday-night-football-betting-preview

I thought so. Home underdog against a team with problems putting up points. Tampa have much more talent than their record, with some of the worst coaching and schemes in the league

Next season's Kansas City/turnround team

To avoid a repeat of the Ravens missed oppportunity yesterday, is that a Recommend?

4am start in the morning, so off to bed shortly, so if it is, it needs to be quick, please.

[tikay]

But even if they were bad bets you still shouldn't have lost anywhere near what you did.  That's why it's obviously just variance

Some if it, yes. Too much of it was ignorance on my part, though.

[TightEnd]

Red, if Miami are struggling to score and Tampa, whilst poor, have the ability to score points, is Tampa to win outright worthy of consideration? Would the punters generally not oppose them, especially against a popular team?

http://www.betpal.com/miami-dolphins-at-tampa-bay-buccaneers-nfl-monday-night-football-betting-preview

I thought so. Home underdog against a team with problems putting up points. Tampa have much more talent than their record, with some of the worst coaching and schemes in the league

Next season's Kansas City/turnround team

To avoid a repeat of the Ravens missed oppportunity yesterday, is that a Recommend?

4am start in the morning, so off to bed shortly, so if it is, it needs to be quick, please.

up to Tal, tikay. I was agreeing with him, to support if he wanted to.

Been busy researching Croatian Basketball.

[tikay]

Red, if Miami are struggling to score and Tampa, whilst poor, have the ability to score points, is Tampa to win outright worthy of consideration? Would the punters generally not oppose them, especially against a popular team?

http://www.betpal.com/miami-dolphins-at-tampa-bay-buccaneers-nfl-monday-night-football-betting-preview

I thought so. Home underdog against a team with problems putting up points. Tampa have much more talent than their record, with some of the worst coaching and schemes in the league

Next season's Kansas City/turnround team

To avoid a repeat of the Ravens missed oppportunity yesterday, is that a Recommend?

4am start in the morning, so off to bed shortly, so if it is, it needs to be quick, please.

up to Tal, tikay. I was agreeing with him, to support if he wanted to.

Been busy researching Croatian Basketball.

Lol, FML.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/conference-premier/cambridge-utd-v-aldershot/asian-handicap

BET SUGGESTION

£30 Cambridge -0.5 on asian handicap 1.92 with ladbrokes


Not really sure why lads are quite out of line with this handicap tommorow night

Thanks John, yes, looks well OOL.

BET PLACED

[Tal]

Go on then. £30 on Messrs VJax, Wright & James. See if the Glazers can win something this year.

[tikay]

Seems a little silly to write off a sport just because of past results where the mistakes weren't necessarily correlated to the sport itself. I mean if haralabos voulgaris started offering tips in here are we gonna tell him sorry but we have a lost a bag last year

We have not written it off, I have made that clear, but we have to learn lessons, surely that is a pre-requisite? I can't convince myself that the problem is just variance.

All the bets are still there for anyone to view, if they want to interrogate them & find the reason, go ahead, I've no problem with that.

I'm really surprised at the apparent consensus that it is fine to drop that sort of money & not self-examine carefully & constructively to try & find why.

Self examination and constructively trying to find out why is fine but we also try and maintain some level of personal tact in Fred too.  I put up an NBA bet last year on Miami against the Spurs where the Spurs were basically resting all of their players and we bet Miami -6 and it closed -11.  It is probably the best bet I have had in the past year and it lost. That is variance but a lot of what we did wasn't variance and I remember some discussions at the time about whether the bets we were placing were really value.  You can generally test that by checking the line/price you take and whether the closing line is different. A good judge will beat the closing price on 80-90% of their bets.  We can also test the justifications the poster is putting up for the bet.  If it is that that team won their last six we now know that is pretty much pointless these days as a methodology but if it is Jeff's scouting and knowledge of young rookies we definitely have an edge.  I work with the guy that leads the market in these kind of NBA props.  Jeff is a better judge (so is our Mam but that is a different point) and I would be loathe not to bet them because "we do badly at the nba"  Surely a better approach would be to show how much we have learnt along the way by showing we have gained the ability to turn it into a winning sport.  That would be the ultimate triumph of Fred.

As for the various points about golf.  I can only assume John Maynard Keynes was talking about golf betting when he said "in the long run we are all dead"

BOOM x 3. There you have it, imo.

As to Jeff's (UK # 282) "Rookie" & "MVP" bets, we back blind, & are profitable, that was never the problem.

I am determined to beat it, but I seem to be alone in wanting to examine losses properly, to see if there is a reason. I'll never stop doing that though, thumb sucking is the way to Carey Street.

[tikay]

Red, if Miami are struggling to score and Tampa, whilst poor, have the ability to score points, is Tampa to win outright worthy of consideration? Would the punters generally not oppose them, especially against a popular team?

Done, as per Tighty & Tal, Twin Posh Blokes.

We got 6/5.

BET PLACED

[Dubai]

Analysing losses is fine as long as we analyse winning bets but that never seems to be the case, when someone wins it's just chalked up as a good bet when in plenty of cases it's a worse bet than some of the losing bets. Think you basically are way way to harsh on your losing bets/sports and probably too complacent on winning bets/sports

[tikay]

Analysing losses is fine as long as we analyse winning bets but that never seems to be the case, when someone wins it's just chalked up as a good bet when in plenty of cases it's a worse bet than some of the losing bets. Think you basically are way way to harsh on your losing bets/sports and probably too complacent on winning bets/sports

I'm always ready to accept variance.....

[Tal]

Red, if Miami are struggling to score and Tampa, whilst poor, have the ability to score points, is Tampa to win outright worthy of consideration? Would the punters generally not oppose them, especially against a popular team?

Done, as per Tighty & Tal, Twin Posh Blokes.

We got 6/5.

BET PLACED

Let's do a 'sample size of one' win.

[tikay]

All done here, off to bed, & I'll be offline most of tomorrow daytime, fingers crossed for a nice Tampa win to get the day off to a good start.

Night all.

[bobby1]

Seems a little silly to write off a sport just because of past results where the mistakes weren't necessarily correlated to the sport itself. I mean if haralabos voulgaris started offering tips in here are we gonna tell him sorry but we have a lost a bag last year

We have not written it off, I have made that clear, but we have to learn lessons, surely that is a pre-requisite? I can't convince myself that the problem is just variance.

All the bets are still there for anyone to view, if they want to interrogate them & find the reason, go ahead, I've no problem with that.

I'm really surprised at the apparent consensus that it is fine to drop that sort of money & not self-examine carefully & constructively to try & find why.

What conclusions did you come to re the golf numbers when you did this?

[aaron1867]

A very interesting set of international fixtures this weekend, some as friendlies which look very competitive, but some very juicy World Cup play off games too, genuinely looking foward to watching them if I can find links or if they are on TV.

Somehow had a look and a browse to find a bet for the weekend though and been curious to know how on earth Iceland got into the play offs. They was in a very poor group, but only seemed to win by the odd goal against very poor football teams:

Iceland 2-0 Norway
Cyprus 1-0 Iceland
Albania 1-2 Iceland
Iceland 0-2 Switzerland
Slovenia 1-2 Iceland
Iceland 2-4 Slovenia
Switzerland 4-4 Iceland
Iceland 2-1 Albania
Iceland 2-0 Cyprus
Norway 1-1 Iceland

Looking at those, I don't think are very convincing results, I'd say most teams that finish second in the qualifying groups would be beating teams like Cyprus & Albania by a few more goals than that. It seems to me they have got out of that group through Slovenia and Norway just not being at the races.

Anyway, they are at home to Croatia.

I am not quite sure who I would say are better between the Swiss and Croatia, but the rankings have them at 7th and 18th, personal view is that they are much closer than that.

Iceland home results not so good, Croatia a lot better team, obviously having problems at the moment, but Iceland have not looked convincing in the group at all, imo.

Not a bet for Fred, but I am on Croatia at 11/10 here which you can get with either Lads or Hills.

Although I probably wouldn't mind seeing Iceland somehow make it.