Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Final score:

Miami 19 Tampa Bay 22.

Good one to sleep through, by the looks of it, as Tampa Bay had a lead and tried to find a loss. Thankfully, they instead found a touchdown and we got our win.

Very much worth saying redarmi started the chat on this game with a brilliant unders bet on Miami's total points, which also weighed in. Glazers have had a good weekend for the first time this season.

[rfgqqabc]

A very interesting set of international fixtures this weekend, some as friendlies which look very competitive, but some very juicy World Cup play off games too, genuinely looking foward to watching them if I can find links or if they are on TV.

Somehow had a look and a browse to find a bet for the weekend though and been curious to know how on earth Iceland got into the play offs. They was in a very poor group, but only seemed to win by the odd goal against very poor football teams:

Iceland 2-0 Norway
Cyprus 1-0 Iceland
Albania 1-2 Iceland
Iceland 0-2 Switzerland
Slovenia 1-2 Iceland
Iceland 2-4 Slovenia
Switzerland 4-4 Iceland
Iceland 2-1 Albania
Iceland 2-0 Cyprus
Norway 1-1 Iceland

Looking at those, I don't think are very convincing results, I'd say most teams that finish second in the qualifying groups would be beating teams like Cyprus & Albania by a few more goals than that. It seems to me they have got out of that group through Slovenia and Norway just not being at the races.

Anyway, they are at home to Croatia.

I am not quite sure who I would say are better between the Swiss and Croatia, but the rankings have them at 7th and 18th, personal view is that they are much closer than that.

Iceland home results not so good, Croatia a lot better team, obviously having problems at the moment, but Iceland have not looked convincing in the group at all, imo.

Not a bet for Fred, but I am on Croatia at 11/10 here which you can get with either Lads or Hills.

Although I probably wouldn't mind seeing Iceland somehow make it.

Surely this will beat sp even if its just because the vast majority of punters will be on Croatia. (Look to trade?)

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on the Month £510.61

Outstanding Bets £2773.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

A profit of £16 yesterday due to Tampa Bay's 22-19 victory over the Dolphins for +£36, offset by Mr Winterstein not scoring a try for Samoa v France in the RLWC last night

We can begin to read the last rites to the Miami to win the AFC East bet

Patriots    7    2    
Jets            5    4    
Dolphins    4    5
Bills           3      7

   

[aaron1867]

I have been researching how to trade on Google and I just can't grasp it & I personally have no idea if the price will be bigger come the weekend.

If someone has any useful links to trading (as I have several good positions at the moment) then send a link or perhaps if it short enough or simple for me to understand, then that would be good also

[sonour]

The 'Teaser' 4fold landed at 3/1.
Thank you redami.

[the sicilian]

I think there is a good bet in the NFL tonight.  It appears with Stan James and SkyBet so isn't a rec as such but thought I would mention it for those that fancy a sweat tonight.  The bet is u21.5 Miami Dolphins points @ 10/11.  Quite a few reasons for it.  The first and most obvious reason is that the line on the game has moved down and the correct number for this is 20.5 now.  That might not seen a big difference from 21.5 but actually it is huge because NFL teams score a total of 21 points a lot because it is 3 TD's.  Teams score exactly 21 points 3.95% of the time.  So if we assume, using the game line now that they should score under and over 20.5 50% of the time then if we add 3.95% to the 50 we can see that they will score under 21.5 53.95% of the time.  So basic maths gives us a nearly 3% edge (53.95*1.91=103).  I think there are good reasons to like it anyway though and think it may be worth even more than that.  The first is the obvious fallout of the accusations of bullying in the Dolphin locker room.  This team has been a media circus for the past week or so and it is hard to believe that they haven't been distracted from getting ready for this game.  Some of football is about naked aggression and that may get vented tonight on the defensive side of the ball but offense takes more nuancing and preparation.  They are also with two of their offensive linemen in Incognito and Martin.   These are guys that defend the QB.  They were already on target to give up a huge amount of sacks this year and it is hard to see how it is going to get any better tonight without their leader in Incognito.  They also have to face the best corner in the business tonight in Darrelle Revis.  Week in and week out Revis shuts out the best receivers in the game and tonight he should be able to neutralise one of Hartline or, more likely, Wallace.  For all these reasons I think they will likely run the ball a lot more than before and that naturally eats up more time and leads to less points and also TB have n awful run defense.  Everything just points to Miami struggling a bit tonight to put a lot of points on the board.

Good call Red.... I looked at this game over and over but couldnt come up with a bet I was realy happy with and for the first time in ages decided not to bet for the sake of it.... perhaps i have finally learned a lesson..then again prob not

[aaron1867]

regards to Croatia bet, they are now only 11/10 in one place, which is with Ladbrokes. Hills are now odds on, nice sweat!!

Anyway, here is a bet suggestion

Greece at home to Romania in the World Cup play offs on Friday.

Greece ranked 15th, Romania 29th. Greece was very close to winning their group, but instead lost out on just goal difference to Bosnia, whilst Romania was nowhere near winning their group and only 2 points in front of 3rd place finishing Hungary and 3 points in front of Turkey, close shaves for both teams in different directions.

Greece do a lot better at home, whilst Romania a pretty decent away from home. However Greece do not conceed at home, in fact, they didn't even let in one goal in their qualifying group, their results was 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-0, 2-0. It's pretty clear Greece aren't going to be scoring many goals, but they won't let many in either & they do have a better side than Romania in all fairness.

They are 11/5 in one place to win to nil with Corals, so suggest £25 on "Greece to win to nil"

[Chompy]

Poshies are 2/5 to beat the Daggers tonight.

The line up will probably be 3-5-2, something like...

Olejnik; Nthle Brisley Alcock Bostwick Little; Ephraim Newell Mendez-Laing; Assomba Barnett

Fergie said yesterday that Ephraim, who's on loan from QPR, and Mendez, who's come on twice as sub of late and scored, will both start.

Betfred's price for Mendez to score are way ool and the baldy needs punishing. 8/1 to score any time and 20/1 to score first, oi oi.

PaddyPower's 3/1 and 10/1 respectively is about what I'd go.

[claypole]

Gone a chomps in 4 min sigh

[horseplayer]

afternoon betfred "trader"

dont be shy

[Chompy]

Betfred odds 'compilers'...

 

[redarmi]

We could always have a bit of fun with BetFred trader.........perhaps next time Hector likes a rugby match we can persuade him to post the wrong side and letting him move it without a bet then we all pop to their shops and get our dough on the other side there.....Be afraid "Betfred" trader....

[scotty2hatty]

Dogs are on Sky tonight from Wimbledon, if you fancy throwing a tenner in for interest....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=62591.0

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/international-friendlies/england-v-chile/both-teams-to-score

BET SUGGESTION £30 both teams to score 5/6 bwin

Best price around betfair price looks like being similar when market settles down.

Chile have scored against Spain and Brazil (both strong enough sides) of late and play 3-4-3 again now and have conceded against any top 100 side they have faced in the last 10 games.

Personally i agree with the coral price of 4/6

[horseplayer]

Cambridge handicap bet into 1.79 (still best with lads)