Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Like two bets in League One today both in same game

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/stevenage-v-rotherham/winner

Stevenage are in excellent form now, Rotherham have been poor recently until two wins.

All of that is in the price, not so sure the books have taken it account Kári Árnason missing for the visitors. The icelandic international defender cum midfielder was in action last night in the rearguard against Croatia, without him last season in a season of promotion Rotherham won 3 of 14 games (much below expected level). Rotherham also have two other defensive doubts.

He is a bit of a standout player at this level and although a small sample size the above stats are at worse supportive.

The other bet i like in the game is François_Zoko to score anytime. He is a striker who a few years ago at Carlisle was attracting attention of at least championship sides. He has done ok since a bit of an enigma after a good start to this season he went quiet but is back to form last few games.

The angle here is he had a trial with todays opponents when Notts County could no longer afford his wages at the start of this season. Steve Evans deemed him not good enough which should provide extra motivation if needed, regardless of this with a few defensive men missing and the 15/8 for a striker being more than generous anyway i think its a bet.







BET SUGGESTION £20 Stevenage win at 8/5 (general)

BET SUGGESTION £15 Score Anytime Zoko, Francois   15/8 Betfred

Lovely, thanks John.

2 BETS PLACED

[tikay]

Tighty, a few days ago, I posted about the Chiefs outright. Is it a bad bet?

Thought you were at Cheltenham today?

[tikay]

Paddy Saltanes, about whom we have an 11/1 Chompy Special, goes in 5 minutes at Lovely Lingfield, & is currently 5/1.

[TightEnd]

Tighty, a few days ago, I posted about the Chiefs outright. Is it a bad bet?

3-1

At the risk of being Chiefs-centric, its an interesting price

The spread is the percentage bet though.

[tikay]

Paddy Saltanes, about whom we have an 11/1 Chompy Special, goes in 5 minutes at Lovely Lingfield, & is currently 5/1.

It was a great price.

Next case.

[tikay]

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos tomorrow on Ch 4

A huge game in the AFC West as the turn-round story of the season, the undefeated Chiefs and their Number One ranked defense visit Denver to play Peyton Manning and the 8-1 Broncos.

We have £25 Chiefs to win the division pre-season at 7-1. they now have the Broncos twice in three weeks. Split those two games 1-1 and we have a real shot at that bet

It has become routine to diss the Chiefs, with a workmanlike offense, an easy schedule and a remarkable run of facing back up quarterbacks for several games in a row, and claim that their record is "false". However you can only beat who the schedule gives you to beat*. Nevertheless this helps explain the remarkable prices for this game where the unbeaten team is a 9.5 point underdog!

Denver of course have a multi-faceted offense, even though Manning aggravated an injured ankle last week. Most would expect them to win this game and I do too.

However a 9.5 point spread doesn't leave a lot of room for manoeuvre for Denver backers as the Chiefs defense features two superb pass rushers in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston plus plenty of talent, built up over several years of high draft picks as the team was in the doldrums, in the secondary. First round draft picks include Eric Berry, Dontari Poe, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and Tyson Jackson

Because the team stunk for about 7 years in a row, it was always picking top ten in the draft. It is no surprise, or at least wasn't to me hence we backed them, that once the team got respectable coaching and a workable quarterback solution that the team would transform its record quickly. the team is stuffed full of talent

The Kansas Defense and the superb running back Jamaal Charles will help keep this game close, keep Manning off the field if they can sustain some drives via running the ball. We have a blue sky scenario of Manning being quite banged up too, was hobbling last week and hasn't practiced since

The value bet here is the Chiefs +9.5 at 4/5 Ladbrokes, or +8.5 elsewhere 10/11 if you want less of a boookmakers cushion. 7 and 10 are the key spreads


* A 16 game NFL Schedule gives you

- Six games against teams in your division
- four games against another division in your conference
- four games against a division in the other conference
- two games against teams who finished in the same spot in their division you did the year before

So the Chiefs finished 2-14, 4th in the AFC West, last year

This season they got

-their six divisional games
-the NFC East, in a poor year for that division. Chiefs have beaten the three NFCE teams they have played
-the AFC South, including the Jags and a disappointing Texans
- Browns and Bills, last year's 4th placed teams in AFC

So the schedule has certainly been soft, but thems the breaks

Thanks Rich, we went the Ladbrokes route.

We've had some fun with the Chiefs already, & hopefully plenty more to come.

BET PLACED

[redarmi]

Thoughts on Jags +9 at home vs the cardinals tighty? I like it at first glance

I don't mind it, but gave up the fools gold of the Jags getting over a touchdown several weeks ago!

On the upside to any bet, the Cardinals offense is inconsistent and might give the Jags a chance of points/short fields via turnovers.

On the downside, the Cardinals defense is really very good, hopelessly under-rated because its an unfashionable franchise outside a major media market and its tough to see the Jags scoring 20+ points here

I kinda liked the Cardinals in this game.  Jags have acheived their goal for the season now and might have some letdown this week and the Cardinals have averaged 2.5 offensive TD's in their last five games which just seems okay until you look at their schedule and realise they have played Seattle, Texans, 49ers and Panthers in those 5 game all of whom have top 6 defenses.  I really struggle to see how they don't put up a lot of points on this Jax D and on the flip side it is always tough to see where Jax get their points from.  I have bet Jax in every game but I can't see me taking them here against an unfashionable team that are playing very well but somewhat under the radar.

On the Chiefs game they seem kinda an autobet to me.  This Denver team seem to me to be massively overrated and I am pretty sure Peyton is playing at about 80% at the moment.  

[tikay]

Thoughts on Jags +9 at home vs the cardinals tighty? I like it at first glance

I don't mind it, but gave up the fools gold of the Jags getting over a touchdown several weeks ago!

On the upside to any bet, the Cardinals offense is inconsistent and might give the Jags a chance of points/short fields via turnovers.

On the downside, the Cardinals defense is really very good, hopelessly under-rated because its an unfashionable franchise outside a major media market and its tough to see the Jags scoring 20+ points here

I kinda liked the Cardinals in this game.  Jags have acheived their goal for the season now and might have some letdown this week and the Cardinals have averaged 2.5 offensive TD's in their last five games which just seems okay until you look at their schedule and realise they have played Seattle, Texans, 49ers and Panthers in those 5 game all of whom have top 6 defenses.  I really struggle to see how they don't put up a lot of points on this Jax D and on the flip side it is always tough to see where Jax get their points from.  I have bet Jax in every game but I can't see me taking them here against an unfashionable team that are playing very well but somewhat under the radar.

On the Chiefs game they seem kinda an autobet to me.  This Denver team seem to me to be massively overrated and I am pretty sure Peyton is playing at about 80% at the moment.  

Thanks Stu.

We are on the Chiefs for the game already, would you suggest we get with the Cardinals, & if so, how?

[redarmi]

No - not at this number.  Was more a response to TL's post.

[Doobs]

The strictly market has gone all weird.

Sophie Ellis Bextor no longer 2nd favourite, but is now 6th favourite!

Patrick has gone ahead of Ashley in the overall betting, but still behind in the best man.

Betway have Patrick at 11/4 for top man, he is 11/10 with Stan James.

If we have Betway, we should just get on and lay off later.  As much as we can.

Edit.  Gone. now best 9/4.  I have also backed SEB again at 9.6 to green the Betfair book.

The gazillion pounds you had on at 11/4 hasn't made the spreadsheet yet.  Some move that now 6/4 best for top man and 6/1 overall.  24 points awaits on Saturday.

Whoops, will sort that out later tonight, so that Tighty can do the Spready. I do remember it. Mostly.

Betway are still slow, 6/4 now when he is best priced 11/10 elsewhere.

Ashley now 13/10 best, which looks a bet to me, but I am on the other side which makes it more tempting obv.

You'll have to speak slowly, Doobs, I don't know what that means, are we suggesting a bet, & if so, on whom? I think we are already on Miss Gumball, too.

There has been a mighty gamble on Patrick to win strictly over the last week or so.  He has been backed from about 100/1 or so in to 13/2.  Hence why we should have backed him at 11/4 for top man.  I couldn't get any and had to settle for 9/4.  Guess you got none.  

Now I think the gamble has gone too far and we should definitely back Ashley at 13/10 to be top man in SCD.  I am sure others here have suggested he is a bit dull.  Patrick just isn't as good as him, and the market looks a bit false.  Ben isn't winning anything.

Suggest £20 Ashley to be top male at 13/10 bet365.

[tikay]

The strictly market has gone all weird.

Sophie Ellis Bextor no longer 2nd favourite, but is now 6th favourite!

Patrick has gone ahead of Ashley in the overall betting, but still behind in the best man.

Betway have Patrick at 11/4 for top man, he is 11/10 with Stan James.

If we have Betway, we should just get on and lay off later.  As much as we can.

Edit.  Gone. now best 9/4.  I have also backed SEB again at 9.6 to green the Betfair book.

The gazillion pounds you had on at 11/4 hasn't made the spreadsheet yet.  Some move that now 6/4 best for top man and 6/1 overall.  24 points awaits on Saturday.

Whoops, will sort that out later tonight, so that Tighty can do the Spready. I do remember it. Mostly.

Betway are still slow, 6/4 now when he is best priced 11/10 elsewhere.

Ashley now 13/10 best, which looks a bet to me, but I am on the other side which makes it more tempting obv.

You'll have to speak slowly, Doobs, I don't know what that means, are we suggesting a bet, & if so, on whom? I think we are already on Miss Gumball, too.

There has been a mighty gamble on Patrick to win strictly over the last week or so.  He has been backed from about 100/1 or so in to 13/2.  Hence why we should have backed him at 11/4 for top man.  I couldn't get any and had to settle for 9/4.  Guess you got none.  

Now I think the gamble has gone too far and we should definitely back Ashley at 13/10 to be top man in SCD.  I am sure others here have suggested he is a bit dull.  Patrick just isn't as good as him, and the market looks a bit false.  Ben isn't winning anything.

Suggest £20 Ashley to be top male at 13/10 bet365.

Gotcha, eventually.

Err, £3.85 was my Max, but t gives us an interest, & will alllw Chompy to make his regular Tiddlearse jibe.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

OK, all done, up to date, off to play some poker now, good luck with whatever you are on.

[Karabiner]

OK, all done, up to date, off to play some poker now, good luck with whatever you are on.

Flicking in the monkey at DTD?

[horseplayer]

pretty sure the 16/1 lads ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR for the triumph is to big


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/triumph-hurdle/winner

[tikay]

OK, all done, up to date, off to play some poker now, good luck with whatever you are on.

Flicking in the monkey at DTD?

No, I wish! I am too tired to drive up there today, though you are tempting me now......

I'm doing one of those Online "Challenges" Next Door, been doing it almost every day for a while now, so just gonna start a session on that. Just little PLO8 DYM's, but I find them very relaxing, & satisfying. Trying to build enough for a PLO8 trip to Vegas next year, it is going well, too, I've already got the train fare to Gatters.