Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

I have barely spent anytime on the Ashes at all because, stupidly, I was thinking it was being played during the night and I couldn't snatch more than parts of it on my ipad and will be travelling a fair amount during the series but I have just found out a local channel here in Jamaica is covering it and it starts at 7pm.  So now I have started looking at it in more depth and I don't really get why the Aussies are faves for the first test but not the series.  In fact I don't really get why they are faves for the first test at all.  Can someone (alright Tighty) explain why this is and what I am missing?

Hello

It is surprising the Aussies are favourites for this match, in my opinion

I do think they are a fast improving team but my view that it will be a close series is pretty much a minority view

Brisbane is generally a track that the Aussies go well at, not often beaten there

There has been a lot of money for the draw. you get a two way play with the draw. thunderstorms are about days 2 and 3, so curtailed play a possibility. the pitch is always a belter, so big scores are a possibility

whoever bats today, if they survive a humid first hour should bat for two days and set themselves up to have a crack at winning the match

[redarmi]

I am in no way the judge of cricket that you are but I tend to agree it will be close but I don't really understand this price and I thought I was pro Aussie.  Sometimes you have to just look at what is staring you in the face.  Here I have a team that are unbeaten in test cricket in the past year versus a team that haven't won a test in the past year.  The two teams played a proper test series in the summer and England won 3-0 and Australia looked incapable of getting over the line even though they flattered to deceive on occasions they always found a way to lose.  Now effectively the same teams are going to play again albeit in the losing teams home territory.  They cannot be favourites for the game.  I can see how it is close and the draw looks a runner but the last time a draw price was value in a cricket match was when the public had lost confidence in Michael Fish and the Met office forecasts....even since then if the weather forecasters even say something that rhymes with rain it is too short and the weather forecast today is fine so the draw could be out of the equation after today.  2/1+ just seems too big too me.  Not a rec for Fred though I'm just not confident enough for others to follow me on cricket with such a long break without watching a lot of the sport.

[TightEnd]

definitely the case if England win the toss

whoever loses the toss should be 3-1+ assuming all normal batting performances from the side batting first

[Tal]

Brisbane is generally a track that the Aussies go well at, not often beaten there

Bit of an understatement.

Last test they lost there was in 1988. There will be readers of this thread who weren't born then. That was against a Windies seam attack that would have matched ours with change.

England haven't won the first test of an away series since 2005...against Bangladesh.

[redarmi]

Brisbane is generally a track that the Aussies go well at, not often beaten there

Bit of an understatement.

Last test they lost there was in 1988. There will be readers of this thread who weren't born then. That was against a Windies seam attack that would have matched ours with change.

England haven't won the first test of an away series since 2005...against Bangladesh.

1988-2005 encompasses the period when Australia were arguably the best test team the world has ever seen though.  Since then they have a fairly good record of won five and drawn two but then they have played NZ twice, England twice, the Windies, Sri Lanka and South Africa.  Only England and SA were any good in thoem and they only won one out of those three games.  Also don't really buy this argument about England not winning a first test abroad since 2005.  Firstly it is a tiny sample and secondly they are playing in Australia not Dubai or Delhi or even Guyana.  They will be very comfortable, the weather will be fine, they can safely have ice cubes in their drinks and their family aren't going to be worried that their hotel is going to get blown up in the night.  Obviously these things have something of an effect but not this big a swing.

[Tal]

Brisbane is generally a track that the Aussies go well at, not often beaten there

Bit of an understatement.

Last test they lost there was in 1988. There will be readers of this thread who weren't born then. That was against a Windies seam attack that would have matched ours with change.

England haven't won the first test of an away series since 2005...against Bangladesh.

1988-2005 encompasses the period when Australia were arguably the best test team the world has ever seen though.  Since then they have a fairly good record of won five and drawn two but then they have played NZ twice, England twice, the Windies, Sri Lanka and South Africa.  Only England and SA were any good in thoem and they only won one out of those three games.  Also don't really buy this argument about England not winning a first test abroad since 2005.  Firstly it is a tiny sample and secondly they are playing in Australia not Dubai or Delhi or even Guyana.  They will be very comfortable, the weather will be fine, they can safely have ice cubes in their drinks and their family aren't going to be worried that their hotel is going to get blown up in the night.  Obviously these things have something of an effect but not this big a swing.

All fair points, red, as is that there is no fear factor for most of these players; there's no Warne or McGrath, no Hayden/Slater/Border/Taylor/Langer/Waughs/Ponting building big innings at 4 an over.

[JoeBeevers]

Brisbane is generally a track that the Aussies go well at, not often beaten there

Bit of an understatement.

Last test they lost there was in 1988. There will be readers of this thread who weren't born then. That was against a Windies seam attack that would have matched ours with change.

England haven't won the first test of an away series since 2005...against Bangladesh.

1988-2005 encompasses the period when Australia were arguably the best test team the world has ever seen though.  Since then they have a fairly good record of won five and drawn two but then they have played NZ twice, England twice, the Windies, Sri Lanka and South Africa.  Only England and SA were any good in thoem and they only won one out of those three games.  Also don't really buy this argument about England not winning a first test abroad since 2005.  Firstly it is a tiny sample and secondly they are playing in Australia not Dubai or Delhi or even Guyana.  They will be very comfortable, the weather will be fine, they can safely have ice cubes in their drinks and their family aren't going to be worried that their hotel is going to get blown up in the night.  Obviously these things have something of an effect but not this big a swing.

Aussies are favourite based solely on the stats surrounding Brisbane. Last 24 tests they have won 17 and drawn the other 7. That is a huge psychological test. England need a good first session (day) to settle nerves.

Swann will not be as effective on tracks such as this and England would not have won 3-0 last time around without Swann. They may have even lost if a couple of things had gone slightly differently.

Thunderstorms likelihood is now reduced and the weather forecast is much better. In fact only Sunday is now looking a real possibility of rain and that possibility is a 9/1 shot according to Google weather:

edit: has changed a little bit back the other way in last few hours but still only showing 20% max.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=brisbane+weather&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&gws_rd=cr&ei=gBCNUtPdCMHwhQeQgoHYCQ

Having said that I like England for just about everything and have taken 6/5 for the series.
11/8 200 scored is more than ok, 6/4 (and some 13/8) were available earlier and I have had some.
I like Joe Root where he is batting (at number 6) for the series overall and 8/1 top bat 1st innings with Lads 1/5 1,2,3 is a nice price. I have always been a fan and didn't really like him opening.
I also like Broad top Eng bowler and I think Bailey's runs are a little cheap too.

[horseplayer]

Have been big on England since the summer and see no reason to change my mind

If the first test is lost which it could be i will be getting involved

IF is a big word in sport read a lot about how unlucky Aus were in the summer, as reds say England like to win and are now the masters at pulling it out of the fire

[tikay]

Broadddddddddd

[JoeBeevers]

The weather forecast for Brisbane is changing all the time and changes quickly. Friday has gone from 0% precipitation to 40% and storms possible in the last hour:

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=brisbane+weather&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&gws_rd=cr&ei=gBCNUtPdCMHwhQeQgoHYCQ

I think you can definitly spend too much time reading these stupid things

Looks like a nice day anyway.

[Tal]

Friday is ages away, judging by that level of fluctuation!

[Marky147]

I'm sure Broad has had worse starts...

[BorntoBubble]

Broad... 4 wickets now!

[mondatoo]

How are Aus favourites at 203/6 ?

Betfair market Aus 7/4 Eng 15/8.

Confused.

[Dubai]

I think England are an incredibly fair price currently, market seems to have favoured Australia strongly throughout and is taking ages to correct itself