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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16430860 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #59970 on: November 23, 2013, 09:53:31 PM »

I backed her a few weeks ago with VC @ 20s, but on basis it was NR Free bet.

Saw nothing today to put me off.

I put her in about 60% of my ten to follow lists, so am pretty happy about today too.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
the sicilian
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« Reply #59971 on: November 23, 2013, 11:44:58 PM »

NFL  Bears at Rams..Zac Stacey a revelation at RB this season for the Rams..nicely rested and over a nagging foot injury goes against that pourous bears run D which has allowed an avg 134 yards per game 2nd worst in the league..sky seem massively out at over 77.5..others at 92.5

  http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-st-louis-rams/total-rushing-yds-zac-stacy

suggest £50 over 77.5 over to the other NFL dudes
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Just because you don't like it...... It doesn't mean it's not the truth
Bazzaboy
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« Reply #59972 on: November 24, 2013, 12:42:01 AM »

Texas A&M bet lands.
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Newportlad
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« Reply #59973 on: November 24, 2013, 12:46:07 AM »

Texas A&M bet lands.

 thumbs up

But Oregon got hammered 42-16 by Arizona, which will almost certainly put paid to Mariota winning the Heisman.
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redarmi
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« Reply #59974 on: November 24, 2013, 01:34:07 AM »

NFL  Bears at Rams..Zac Stacey a revelation at RB this season for the Rams..nicely rested and over a nagging foot injury goes against that pourous bears run D which has allowed an avg 134 yards per game 2nd worst in the league..sky seem massively out at over 77.5..others at 92.5

  http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-st-louis-rams/total-rushing-yds-zac-stacy

suggest £50 over 77.5 over to the other NFL dudes

I think the value has largely gone out of him but this is just wrong.  Fred cant bet with Sky though.
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bobby1
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« Reply #59975 on: November 24, 2013, 02:00:13 AM »

NFL  Bears at Rams..Zac Stacey a revelation at RB this season for the Rams..nicely rested and over a nagging foot injury goes against that pourous bears run D which has allowed an avg 134 yards per game 2nd worst in the league..sky seem massively out at over 77.5..others at 92.5

  http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-st-louis-rams/total-rushing-yds-zac-stacy

suggest £50 over 77.5 over to the other NFL dudes

 Angry Angry Angry, this was a terrible line. I've seen two terrible lines this weekend and missed them both, bad weekend to be a little slow in trawling thru the markets/getting on.

Good work getting that number mate.
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Longy
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« Reply #59976 on: November 24, 2013, 02:22:17 AM »

Texas A&M bet lands.

 thumbs up

But Oregon got hammered 42-16 by Arizona, which will almost certainly put paid to Mariota winning the Heisman.

I couldn't believe what I was watching, so many mistakes mariota was probably not the worst. Manziel had a bad day, which is good.
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the sicilian
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« Reply #59977 on: November 24, 2013, 02:32:00 AM »

NFL  Bears at Rams..Zac Stacey a revelation at RB this season for the Rams..nicely rested and over a nagging foot injury goes against that pourous bears run D which has allowed an avg 134 yards per game 2nd worst in the league..sky seem massively out at over 77.5..others at 92.5

  http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-st-louis-rams/total-rushing-yds-zac-stacy

suggest £50 over 77.5 over to the other NFL dudes

 Angry Angry Angry, this was a terrible line. I've seen two terrible lines this weekend and missed them both, bad weekend to be a little slow in trawling thru the markets/getting on.

Good work getting that number mate.

took it before I posted Smiley
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bobby1
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« Reply #59978 on: November 24, 2013, 03:23:02 AM »

NFL  Bears at Rams..Zac Stacey a revelation at RB this season for the Rams..nicely rested and over a nagging foot injury goes against that pourous bears run D which has allowed an avg 134 yards per game 2nd worst in the league..sky seem massively out at over 77.5..others at 92.5

  http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/chicago-bears-at-st-louis-rams/total-rushing-yds-zac-stacy

suggest £50 over 77.5 over to the other NFL dudes

 Angry Angry Angry, this was a terrible line. I've seen two terrible lines this weekend and missed them both, bad weekend to be a little slow in trawling thru the markets/getting on.

Good work getting that number mate.

took it before I posted Smiley

it's a must do if you are going to put that kind of bet on here, got no chance of it lasting very long. The other one I liked was available on oddschecker, I logged into the site and couldn't find it. I then clicked refresh on oddschecker and it had been removed so must have missed it by seconds, not been a good night so far.

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« Reply #59979 on: November 24, 2013, 05:19:37 AM »

Not putting it up but amazed Brentford are still 5/4 to beat the hopeless Poshies on Tuesday. Should be odds-on. Next Saturday v Wolves will be our sixth league defeat on the spin.
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redarmi
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« Reply #59980 on: November 24, 2013, 05:37:25 AM »

Texas A&M bet lands.

 thumbs up

But Oregon got hammered 42-16 by Arizona, which will almost certainly put paid to Mariota winning the Heisman.

I couldn't believe what I was watching, so many mistakes mariota was probably not the worst. Manziel had a bad day, which is good.

Starting to get a feeling AJ McCarron might end up getting this by default.  Winston obviously should be a huge fave still but if they didn't vote for him because of allegations it is hard to see who else gets it now.
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Longy
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« Reply #59981 on: November 24, 2013, 06:47:55 AM »

Texas A&M bet lands.

 thumbs up

But Oregon got hammered 42-16 by Arizona, which will almost certainly put paid to Mariota winning the Heisman.

I couldn't believe what I was watching, so many mistakes mariota was probably not the worst. Manziel had a bad day, which is good.

Starting to get a feeling AJ McCarron might end up getting this by default.  Winston obviously should be a huge fave still but if they didn't vote for him because of allegations it is hard to see who else gets it now.

Agreed the viable candidates after Winston are pretty thing on the ground. Mccarron could well sneak in especially with a good performance at auburn and a potential sec championship game. I can see someone like Jordan lynch at Northern Illinois cracking the top 3 at this point.
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tikay
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« Reply #59982 on: November 24, 2013, 10:25:38 AM »

Texas A&M bet lands.

BOOM!

I wanted to start Sunday with some good news, here it is. Took a while to find, mind......

What in interesting bet that was.
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tikay
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« Reply #59983 on: November 24, 2013, 10:37:17 AM »

Change of plan on the free bet.

The Champion Hurdle has been run since 1927.  In that time, precisely 2 mares have won the race.  The last was Dawn Run in 1984.  Recently a whole raft of races have been upgraded to make it more attractive to race mares over jumps, so this one could have a real easy time beating up her own sex and earning a decent wedge doing it.  Given connections came over the channel and raced in a race open to the top hurdlers, then that makes me think they really are planning a tilt at the Champion.  I think she is at least as good as Quevega already, so don't think she'll be going to the Mares race at Cheltenham whilst Quevega is still on a big streak.

The mare I think we should back is Annie Power.  I think on a line through Zarkandar, she can't be much behind the very best 2 mile hurdlers now.  She must still have a p after her name in Timeform, because she hasn't really looked like losing yet.  The way she was backed today suggests she is highly rated by her stable.

There are 2 downsides.  

Her trainer is Willie Mullins, and I know a few wouldn't back one of his ante post for any race.  Maybe he is never as clear in his plans as you'd like.  She could possibly show up in the World Hurdle or the Mares race, and not sure we'd get much notice on the decision.  I'd certainly be happier if there were plenty of upbeat bulletins surrounding Quevega during the season.

The other is that she has only ever run on softish ground.  This may not be such a bad thing with the Champion Hurdle, as they aren't ever starting the Festival on firm ground, even if it may get there by the Friday.

We could still back Rizeena for the 1,000 and she has a lot of form in very good races, and you can be pretty sure that Clive Brittain will make sure she turns up in the 1,000 Guineas if at all possible.  I expect he'd even find a way of getting her there if she lost a leg over the winter.  But she is 12/1 and though it seems value, I think there is likely always likely to be one better.  I kind of see her as a worthy 2nd come next year's race.  Though I have an ante-post voucher, myself, I am struggling to get excited about it.  Frankly, the bet just seems very dull.

Now Annie Power is different, whilst she remains unbeaten, we can still dream that she can be the very best one next March.  But more importantly, a mare winning the Champion Hurdle is something to get excited about.  

So forget all the possible downside, get that free bet on Annie Power for the Champion Hurdle.  12/1 best price with William Hill.

...and please Mr Mullins, send her to the Champion.

That, Mr Doobs, is such a comprehensive, enjoyable & balanced summary, amongst the best I've seen here, thank you.

I was at Cheltenham to see Dawn Run do her thing, by the bye, the cheering afterwards was something to behold. She is the only horse of either gender to win the Ch Hurdle AND the Gold Cup, I believe. She was trained by Paddy Mullins, & usually ridden by by son Tony, (is this the same family as the current Trainer?), though Tony was replaced by Jonjo for her Gold Cup win.  

And we can follow the Mare for the next 4 months, & the inevitable twists & turns that are bound to ensue, with the bonus that the bet is FREE, it's the perfect way to use a Free Bet, & we are on a £300 near-Freeroll.

Let the fun commence.  

Win this, & we will be Rich, or even Ricci......

BET PLACED



« Last Edit: November 24, 2013, 10:44:55 AM by tikay » Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
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« Reply #59984 on: November 24, 2013, 10:56:06 AM »

Wow 4k pages and not going broke*. Didn't think i would see the day.

*The thread not going broke. I bet you many a punter following has but we cannot all be as shrewd as Mr Kendall

Nor me, Mr Bubble, nor me, & I speak as someone who was a fully-fledged ice-cream & losing punter for well over 30 years.

Camel has much to be held accountable for, & what a thing that so many seasoned Pros & Elders have got us here, & all for free, & what fun we have had along the road. This is exactly how Forums should be. A million views soon, all being well, we really ought to celebrate somehow.

Less sure about "shrewd Mr Kendall", I have not selected a single winner or even selection, of which there have been 2,435. 4.66% ROI over almost 2,500 bets suggests to me a reasonable sample size, so it's not just run-good, all I try to do is sort the wheat from the chaff, whilst all the laborious hard work is done by MereSpread, His Tightness, the Elders & the Regulars. Love it all to bits.

Big thanks to everyone involved.

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