Tips for Tikay

[millidonk]

Bring back the flatcap imo.

[Tonji]

Sky's stylist off sick?

[TightEnd]

Everton v Fulham this weekend

Everton unbeaten at home

Fulham, the odd sign that Meulensteen has them playing for him. Berbatov certainly seems to have his first motivation of the season, what with the transfer window upcoming, the cynic might suggest

but

Four of Everton's 7 wins this season have been clean sheets

Fulham have failed to score in five of their last six away games

Bet Victor are best priced 11-8 Everton to win to Nil - 6/5 generally

I thought this was the best bet I found on domestic football this weekend

Agree? disagree?

[millidonk]

Our darts bet is now 8/13 clear fav. Value pie for Xmas anyone?

[Marky147]

Our darts bet is now 8/13 clear fav. Value pie for Xmas anyone?

Been eating it for the last month, so hopefully not

[Ant040689]

Everton v Fulham this weekend

Everton unbeaten at home

Fulham, the odd sign that Meulensteen has them playing for him. Berbatov certainly seems to have his first motivation of the season, what with the transfer window upcoming, the cynic might suggest

but

Four of Everton's 7 wins this season have been clean sheets

Fulham have failed to score in five of their last six away games

Bet Victor are best priced 11-8 Everton to win to Nil - 6/5 generally

I thought this was the best bet I found on domestic football this weekend

Agree? disagree?

I would say steer clear. I think you shouldn't count any further than the last two games when it comes to Fulham, because they are a team revived. They were unlucky to lose against Tottenham at home and they were a little fortunate to beat Villa, but I just think they are a little too perky to discount their attacking threat. I think they will score against Everton. Many of the Fulham players may rise to the challenge as there is nothing to lose here too against some great opposition.

Just doesn't sit well, but go ahead as you please, I am obviously no authority!

[Dubai]

The darts bet looks a 100 star max at all prices down to 1/2. Shame just boyles priced up

[TightEnd]

Susanna Reid is the new favourite for Strictly Come Dancing heading into this weekend's semi-final.

She was backed yesterday and the money has continued today to leave the BBC Breakfast presenter out on her own at the head of the market.

Reid is currently a general 7/4 shot.

"Almost 90% of bets placed in the last 24 hours have been for Susanna. Our customers are backing her as if she cannot lose," said William Hill spokesman Rupert Adams.

However, the prices still suggest otherwise with four of the five contestants still at 9/2 or less.

Actress Natalie Gumede is 3/1, singer Sophie Ellis-Bextor 4/1 and model Abbey Clancy 9/2.

Actor Patrick Robinson is the 40/1 outsider and is a best of 4/6 to be the next eliminated.

[Ant040689]

To anyone that doesn’t know, I AM A PALACE FAN. You will need to judge whether or not the rest should be trusted from that.

Jerome is 28/1 and Chamakh 22/1 FGS against Chelsea away tomorrow with Bwin. Value? Would like some input from some FGS experts on here. They are standouts compared to the other bookies. Both scored in Palace's last game and Chamakh has scored two in a row. He does have the odd tendency of never much shooting though with only five shots all season but three goals, ha. They are 8/1 and 6/1 (13/2 best elsewhere) for anytime goalscorer respectively too.

I have answered my own question in regards to Delaney though at 150/1 FGS, he nearly scored recently against Norwich. The anytime of 40/1 seems good for a small bet with Chelsea's recent tendency to have mares from set pieces, of which he is normally always involved.  

All three men are good in the air and are threats from set pieces and will normally all be in the box for them. Three of them were in there for a corner at 2-0 up against Cardiff.

In their last three premier league games Chelsea have conceded first. In their last four premier league home games, they have conceded.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-crystal-palace/first-goalscorer

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-crystal-palace/anytime-goalscorer

This takes me back to Barry Bannan and his assisting capabilities. He is 25/1 first assist and 8/1 anytime assist. He takes all free kicks and corners, has a lovely whipped cross in play and with Chelsea being a little shaky from set pieces recently the value is there for him. Against Cardiff, Bannan was close four times to an assist, against West Ham the game before he nearly set another up and actually did get one assist for Chamaklh‘s header. Obviously Chelsea pose a different threat, but I think Palace will score one and Bannan I think is knocking on the door too much to not get another soon.

I think Palace have been undervalued generally for the match here, thus why these bets show good value.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-crystal-palace/first-assist

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-crystal-palace/anytime-assist

I think there is decent value to be had with Palace +2 in the asian handicaps at 946/1000 with Ladbrokes. Palace 2 goals behind gets you your money back. The 7 games since Holloway’s departure, Palace haven’t lost by more than two, including tough home games against Arsenal (0-2) and Everton (0-0), granted they haven‘t played anyone of Chelsea‘s calibre away from home since the Holloway departure, but even under Holloway, they only lost 3-1 away to Liverpool. Chelsea have only scored 3 goals more than their oppo once at home this season against Cardiff in October.

Even with all of those stats, it needs to be considered, that Palace are only really starting to click in the last game or two in regards to chance creation and now may pose much more of an attacking threat while maintaining a decent defence.

On that front though, Moxey probably doesn’t make the starting line up through injury forcing right back Joel Ward to play left back and Mariappa slipping in at right back. This is what happened for the last 75 mins against Cardiff at home in the last game and it looked resolute but Cardiff were poor and Chelsea are going to be coming harder tomorrow. That needs to be considered, but I think Moxey being generally quite a bit of a liability defensively, Ward replacing him and bringing Mariappa in, might actually stabilise it more, but of course I may be wrong here.

Palace sit with two holding midfielders despite playing a 4-4-2, it is probably more like a 4-2-2-2, with wingers behind the front men, which adds quite a bit of steel to the defence and has done in recent games, they've conceded 1 goal in 5 games, but of course Chelsea are going to prove a much tougher challenge than many of the teams faced in those last five for Palace.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-crystal-palace/asian-handicap


To be honest, and I do feel for you guys having to read this and maybe future tips, there is going to be value on Palace for a while, until they get considered as a threat to lower mid table teams rather than relegation scrappers. At the rate they are going that could happen sooner rather than later. I could be wrong thinking they will pull away of course, especially because of the quality of team faced in the good run, but I don’t think so.

I don't think you have a Bwin account Tikay, but thought I would put this up in case you have and for other people that might like the look of these bets that fancy it. With the assists bets they are with Boylesports. You may look at the stats with Bannan as you did last time, and be put off but I think it is only a matter of time with him.

Not sure what amounts on each would amount to the best way of betting either, so will leave it up to your own devices.

[Dubai]

+2 doesn't get your money back btw as draw is quoted in the market, you are confusing handicaps with asian handicaps where Palace+2.0 would indeed get your money back if they lost by exactly 2 but the price is obviously way shorter

[tikay]

To anyone that doesn’t know, I AM A PALACE FAN. You will need to judge whether or not the rest should be trusted from that.

Jerome is 28/1 and Chamakh 22/1 FGS against Chelsea away tomorrow with Bwin. Value? Would like some input from some FGS experts on here. They are standouts compared to the other bookies. Both scored in Palace's last game and Chamakh has scored two in a row. He does have the odd tendency of never much shooting though with only five shots all season but three goals, ha. They are 8/1 and 6/1 (13/2 best elsewhere) for anytime goalscorer respectively too.

I have answered my own question in regards to Delaney though at 150/1 FGS, he nearly scored recently against Norwich. The anytime of 40/1 seems good for a small bet with Chelsea's recent tendency to have mares from set pieces, of which these two centre backs are normally always involved. 

All three men are good in the air and are threats from set pieces and will normally all be in the box for them. Three of them were in there for a corner at 2-0 up against Cardiff.

In their last three premier league games Chelsea have conceded first. In their last four premier league home games, they have conceded.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-crystal-palace/first-goalscorer

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-crystal-palace/anytime-goalscorer

This takes me back to Barry Bannan and his assisting capabilities. He is 25/1 first assist and 8/1 anytime assist. He takes all free kicks and corners, has a lovely whipped cross in play and with Chelsea being a little shaky from set pieces recently the value is there for him. Against Cardiff, Bannan was close four times to an assist, against West Ham the game before he nearly set another up and actually did get one assist for Chamaklh‘s header. Obviously Chelsea pose a different threat, but I think Palace will score one and Bannan I think is knocking on the door too much to not get another soon.

I think Palace have been undervalued generally for the match here, thus why these bets show good value.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-crystal-palace/first-assist

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-crystal-palace/anytime-assist

I think there is decent value to be had with Palace +2 in the handicaps at 7/5 with Ladbrokes. Palace 2 goals behind gets you your money back. The 7 games since Holloway’s departure, Palace haven’t lost by more than two, including tough home games against Arsenal (0-2) and Everton (0-0), granted they haven‘t played anyone of Chelsea‘s calibre away from home since the Holloway departure, but even under Holloway, they only lost 3-1 away to Liverpool. Chelsea have only scored 3 goals more than their oppo once at home this season against Cardiff in October.

Even with all of those stats, it needs to be considered, that Palace are only really starting to click in the last game or two in regards to chance creation and now may pose much more of an attacking threat while maintaining a decent defence.

On that front though, Moxey probably doesn’t make the starting line up through injury forcing right back Joel Ward to play left back and Mariappa slipping in at right back. This is what happened for the last 75 mins against Cardiff at home in the last game and it looked resolute but Cardiff were poor and Chelsea are going to be coming harder tomorrow. That needs to be considered, but I think Moxey being generally quite a bit of a liability defensively, Ward replacing him and bringing Mariappa in, might actually stabilise it more, but of course I may be wrong here.

Palace sit with two holding midfielders despite playing a 4-4-2, it is probably more like a 4-2-2-2, with wingers behind the front men, which adds quite a bit of steel to the defence and has done in recent games, they've conceded 1 goal in 5 games, but of course Chelsea are going to prove a much tougher challenge than many of the teams faced in those last five for Palace.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-crystal-palace/handicaps


To be honest, and I do feel for you guys having to read this and maybe future tips, there is going to be value on Palace for a while, until they get considered as a threat to lower mid table teams rather than relegation scrappers. At the rate they are going that could happen sooner rather than later. I could be wrong thinking they will pull away of course, especially because of the quality of team faced in the good run, but I don’t think so.

I don't think you have a Bwin account Tikay, but thought I would put this up in case you have and for other people that might like the look of these bets that fancy it. With the assists bets they are with Boylesports. You may look at the stats with Bannan as you did last time, and be put off but I think it is only a matter of time with him.

Not sure what amounts on each would amount to the best way of betting either, so will leave it up to your own devices.

Thanks Ant. Appreciate the work that went into that.

You are incorrect, Fred DOES have an active, & only semi-restricted, BWin Account.

I shall need our football chaps to advice me on the merits of the 83 proposed bets, however. Not personal, I know you understand, but I apply a discount to "homer" bets generally.

They may be very good, of course, but homers don't see things through the same eyes as others.

Anyway, I'll go with feedback, & will happily get on if positive. It'd be quite something if there really were 4 or 5 value bets in the same game though, all favouring Palace!

Lets see what the chaps say, & again, thank you.

[tikay]

Just seen this Rob, sorry.

Welcome to Fred, about time too.

We missed 2/1, but took 19/10, also BetFair Sportsbook.

Lets start with a winner, please!

BET PLACED

THE EXCHANGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks Tikay.

Just to clarify, 3.05 on the exchange = 2.95 (with 5% comm), so when I put up 2/1 that was at the time best price. Not to worry anyway, a winner is a winner!

Thanks Rob, & yes, I'm aware that when you Recommended it, that was "best price".

It was very late when I saw it, & I was trying to get to bed, & I never checked Betty Sportsbook unfortunately. Anyway, not too much damage done, & if we win, all is good.

Really pleased to welcome you aboard, by the way. Have you been lurking for a while? We need guys like you, to mitigate against ice-creams like Lord Grumps. Not top 5? Too right. I heard he was fat, balding, & 50 something. It was on Twitter, so it must be true.

[Dubai]

Well given they are all related contingencies if one of the bets was value then they probably all are. Or none of them are.

[tikay]

^ ^ ^
Poppycock!

You should dress progressively more smartly for each day of a comp. The first session of the main event final table, being in the afternoon, should be in a shirt and tie (nothing ostentatious, though. We don't want to be confused for the locals). After the dinner break should be black tie.

Heads up in white tie.

Oh my, that is added to my Bucket List.

When, in the words of Thom Yorke, I believe, I am King for a Day, I'm as SO going to make that happen.

[Nico29]

+2 doesn't get your money back btw as draw is quoted in the market, you are confusing handicaps with asian handicaps where Palace+2.0 would indeed get your money back if they lost by exactly 2 but the price is obviously way shorter

Yeah very important to note this.

The 'asian handicap' line that lads have for palace +2 have them at 1.95 not 2.4/7/5.