Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Sherwood told Spurs TV he wanted to go all out for revenge for the 0-3. Probably shouldn't have taken Adebayor off for Holtby then at 1-0.

Cant judge him on one game but the first thing i heard him shout last night was

"fucking get stuck in lads" after about 90 seconds

tbf Big sam then followed up with a similar response a minute later

Hardly a modern highly rated coach type

I remember going to watch Spurs Reserves play against Birmingham Reserves a few years ago. Clive Allen was running the team then and Adel Taraabt was spending his time there. Allen basically spent 80 minutes shouting in French at him. Not the sweet, flowing French of Voltaire or Balzac, but a coarse volley of the sort of language we associate with frustrated coaches. "Adel! ADEL!! ADELLLL!!!! DEUXIEME!!" (back post)

Sure enough, he did no more than pick the ball up in his own half, dribble past everyone (including Martin Taylor twice - a measure of how meanderingly Taraabt runs) and curl one from the edge of the box into the top corner. It's one of the best goals I've ever seen.

Clive had been accompanying the dribble with "PASSE! ADEL!! PAAASSE!!"

[Tonji]

No bet at the moment in the Men's Downhill at Val Gardena. Yesterday Svindal was a class apart & now priced at evens. Another training run today.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £281.41

Outstanding Bets £3411.76

Free Bets to use ONE WILLIAM HILL BY SATURDAY

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=33

A loss of just under £10 yesterday, from taking the Klaasen Darts bet as a loss and the net small loss on the two overnight basketball bets

On a quiet midweek day for long term bet activity, we caught a small break when Sheffield Wednesday's game with Wigan was abandoned with the resurgent Owls 1-0 up. Still, the top South Yorkshire club bet looks in early trouble due to their pick up in form

Right, I am off to continue my research into the Crystal Palace U15 academy side and the recent change in Palace training ground lunchtime menus in preparation to counter the arguments likely to come forward in Ant's next post.

[tikay]

Darts Update

Still waiting on first 100+ average.

Lewis made it through without dropping a leg.

Thanks Bazza, appreciated.

It'll be SO sweet when we eventually break our duck!

[tikay]

roffle, your fault, was reading your Freddie Star awards thread. I'd back the Rockets without any research, lucky there's no bad bets with this offer. Good spot Jamie

Trust me to back the wrong one in a coin-flip! No late scores, either.

Never mind, your tip got home, so no real damage done.

[tikay]

Since Holloway leaving, the home defensive performances for Crystal Palace have been superb. In the first game, they could have feasibly kept a clean sheet at home to Arsenal if it wasn't for a rash penalty to let them go 0-1 up at the start of the second half, with the first half being a pretty confident shut out, this forced Palace to be more open, eventually falling 0-2.

Next game at home was Everton, where they didn't score with no real clear cut chance to and Palace really should have won the game, ended 0-0. Then West Ham which was a comfortable 1-0 win, West Ham reduced to half chances. Cardiff was a 2-0 win, Cardiff had one glaring opportunity to score in the opening 3 mins, missed, then Palace could have gone on to score about 6, with Cardiff showing not much more else.

Away Hull were beaten 0-1 at their place by Palace, Hull previously not losing a game there all season, lost to Norwich away 1-0 where a draw would have been a fair result, lost 2-0 to West Brom away, this was quite fair, and the confidence was only starting to build upfront. And of course lost 2-1 away to Chelsea where a 2-2 may not have been out of the question but of course, Palace were outclassed for decent periods, but were constantly very tough to break down, both goals had to come from expert shots from range that not many teams in the Premier League can do to Chelsea's level. Joel Ward had kept Hazard quiet too which was impressive. He has been their standout defender.

Notice most of the games are low scoring, showing the defensive resoluteness apparent in recent games and slow build up in confidence going forward which is very promising indeed. Chance creation is becoming easier and the finishing too is, but of course they are in no way deadly, but a team high on confidence and currently getting a lot out of their strikers. Which can be seen in Palace potentially reviving Chamakh's career, showing anyone that cares to look what a class act he really can be. Jerome is even getting in on it, with great holding up play, generally, good pace and decent movement, hopefully his finishing will improve within a setup like Palace that is trying its best to use both of these guys as their outlets

The value on Palace is there at the moment. People still consider them to be bottom four fodder, and for that to continue until for the rest of the season where I think Palace have shown they have enough about them to eventually pull away. I think it is the pre-conception that people still hold that Palace have the weakest looking side, were terrible at the start of the season, so they should remain there, when really what they have shown in their games without Holloway is 8 games and 10 points. That is inclusive of games played against Everton, Arsenal, Chelsea and a Hull side that were then unbeaten at home at the time. Conceded only 7 goals in the last 8 games too.

This is a little cheeky and of course shouldn't be held in too much credence, but if you were to take the points that Palace have made since Holloway has departed and pretend that was the form that they would have maintained all season, they would be on 20 points in tenth position now, level with Swansea.

I think that assumption is not too far off. Palace I think are a 13th+ side currently having to make up for a truly pitiful start, and that is with Jerome leading the line. When Murray is fit in January, who scored 31 goals last season, perhaps the frontline is more potent.

I think this is why you should get on different Palace season long bets. I suppose the handicaps may be good but have no experience with them. To be top 15 at 7/2 and top 12 at 12/1 may be good. 15th had 41 points last season, Palace would need 28 points in 22 games, 12th last season had 43 points so 30 would be needed in 22. Obviously I know points for each position varies from year to year but that is only up there as a loose guide.

To stay up is a good bet at 5/2. 38 points generally is the safety number, Palace need 25 points to get that in 22 games. With the squad as they are, there is value there.

31 or more points at Stan James at 9/10 seems the biggest value here, Palace would need 18 points from their remaining 22 games. This is probably my pick from the bunch tbh, and one to invest heavily into.

Remember on the points front Palace have had 10 from their last 8 but that does include the team adjusting to the new regime, and in their last four under Pulis they have had 6 points from 4 games, of course the sample size here is small under Pulis. But it should be considered that their points to games ratio could be higher than 10 points from 8 games going forward into their remaining 22 games.

The total goals conceded line for Palace at over/under is at 65-66, they are on 24 currently 3 games away from the half way mark. Projected average would be 28 at the half way point, at worst, so it is quite a healthy line of an extra 10 points they are giving you. Palace avoided a spanking away to Chelsea and at home to Arsenal and aside from Man City, there shouldn't be many teams out there capable of scoring three against Palace, on their current showing, of course that could slip but I am not sure. I would invest in this market after they adjust the line after the Man City away game in 11 days time, once they do, I would definitely suggest a big bet here.

All of this is conditional on a few things though. Namely that one of Ward, Delaney, Gabbidon, Chamakh, or Jerome do not get injured. We haven’t sufficient cover to the same level as they are if they cannot play and the form would drop. And especially Mile Jedinak imo, he is a very good defensive midfielder for Palace and is doing well in the interceptions dept, just in front of the defence, if he goes, despite cover in defensive midfield, Palace may not be in form.

Despite the threat of one of those players going down, Pulis is going to invest in January and it will be interesting to see what he can do to strengthen the squad. Also, there is back up in every position, it is just that the quality will be lessened to a level you cannot be completely sure of solidity, but likelihood is that if it is only one or two injuries to the players named (which is unlikely to happen) the replacements, raise their game to the standard of those around them. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them step up as I couldn’t have genuinely thought the backline Palace do put out was capable of conceding so few goals.

All of what I have mentioned stats wise is available for everyone to see, but what I think a lot of bookies and punters alike are discrediting, is Palace’s chances of maintaining their recent form over the course of the season. Of course I think I am guilty of probably over-hyping their capability to maintain it over the season. But just look at the team sheet Pulis is dealing with and look at their output, in a lot of games the squad have looked comfortably assured in their capabilities and have looked strong. He is going to improve with signings in January too and Murray coming back is like a new signing, plus Guediora returns then and he played very well before injury as a central defensive midfielder.

Pulis’s record with Stoke shouldn’t be discounted either, he has never been relegated with them or any team.

I think psychologically too, Palace players have been through the ringer under Holloway, they have felt that nasty desolation and know all about it, and under their current spell, with the harsh experience behind them, I think they will be less likely to let their heads fall all season.

Only two recommends to you Tikay as I know Palace are a tough sell, I think the 31 points or more at 9/10 with Stan James is much too generous and would recommend max bet (£100?). Palace could still be comfortably relegated and get this bet home.

Suggest £100.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/crystal-palace/season-points

The Palace to stay up at 5/2 with Stan James would be a half max bet for me. I think this price will get shorter, opening up a possible hedging possibility if things go well.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-stay-up

Obv if not comfortable with stakes, lower it, but I think these two bets are good value.



I have put up these recommends now as I think there is a possibility people stand up and take Palace seriously after a potential win on Saturday and perhaps another good result against Villa away after, to potentially get them out of the bottom three. This making people realise Palace may be better than they thought and reducing any value on them.

For the Newcastle game, with confident news we have two defensive midfielders available, I think Palace should be at most 8/5, but there is 13/5 available with VC, may I add too that, that price is ool with the rest of the bookies.  

Suggest £25.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-newcastle/winner

Newcastle didn’t look too convincing in their last outing against Southampton at home, from memory their best 3 chances came from terrible mistakes from Southampton's defence, but their ability at shooting from range could undo Palace that like to drop deep and often invite that. Saying that they haven’t conceded in three games at home. Which makes the win to nil a good looking bet at 17/4 too, with VC.

Suggest £10

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-newcastle/to-win-to-nil

Either of those two bets are value I think on top of the two other season long bets suggested. Would suggest small nibbles as well on top 15 and top 12 but just assuming already you aren't interested lol. If you are or anyone else, it can be found near the bottom of the page on this next link

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league

Dulwich Hamlet won yesterday against title rivals Maidstone, btw, 2-0, which has them into 11/2 best for the title, in from 9/1.

Crikey.

That is a LONG Post, Ant!

I appreciate the hard work that went into it, but it'll take me a while to get my head round it.

Note Fred cannot bet with Stan James, which was the Firm in two of your Recommendations, but others can, of course.

I really can't make judgement on most of that stuff, I don't know enough, but if the football lads support it, we'll obviously get involved.

I assume you are aware we have a big position on Palace already?

Anyway, Fred apart, I hope Palace fulfil your dreams & do well.

[Chompy]

LOVE Ant's Palace bias.

Btw Ant, the max bet is £300, if you want to amend your recs?

[horseplayer]

superb post ant

[tikay]

LOVE Ant's Palace bias.

Btw Ant, the max bet is £300, if you want to amend your recs?

Shush!

[Ant040689]

I love how much Ant loves the game!

He needs his Hole tbf

?

It's a Scottish term for having sexual intercourse.

Probably a wiser word hasn't been said then!

[tikay]

superb post ant

Which of this week's FOUR (?!) Palace bets would you suggest Fred gets on, horsey?

[horseplayer]

superb post ant

Which of this week's FOUR (?!) Palace bets would you suggest Fred gets on, horsey?

No view on any of them

Got to admire the passion though and the work he puts in

[Chompy]

I hereby endorse all four of Ant's bets for the max stake, £1.2k investment, no rebuffs.

Stuey Gray is out to 1/2 after last night's mudbath. Any thoughts on a possible cover horsey?

[david3103]

What price Manchester United for Europa Cup 2015?

[Omm]

For anybody that might want a bet on Dancing on Ice, here are a few that ’I've pulled out of the pack.

Hayley Tamaddon is second Favorite at 4-1, I have taken her over Ray Quinn, the 13/8 best price is just far to short for him when essentially they are nearly the same. Ray might be a better skater (was top on judges scorecards every week he skated won he won his series) but Hayley had a higher percentage of the public vote +80% in the final (Rays was in the 70%’s). Neither should be in the bottom two and if they both get to the final I’m taking Hayley to be more popular due to her currently being on Coronation Street, known from her Emmerdale days which are exactly the people that will be watching and voting on this thing.

The only others I think might sneak into it I’ve looked at each way (Ladbrokes have got the best offer ¼ 1,2,3):

Kyran Bracken is best priced 10-1 with them – he could win as he was the lowest scorer out of the three in his final but was very popular with the public and won (I think at the time people couldn’t believe a lumbering rugby playing would be any good, but he was) He then won the champion of champions (but this was straight after his main win so probably doesn’t mean much, As he lost the following year on the Christmas special to Suzanne Shaw who had just won the main series). I just think the 10-1 is too big, I would have him more at 11/2. Ive took the each way with Ladbrokes.

At 14-1 Suzanne Shaw is to big a price, she also won her series and I might have fancied her for the win here but she is not as in the public eye as Hayley and it will really depend on how she comes across on the show (no problem with her skating ability as she has also scored a perfect 60). I would have had her more around 7-1 which is available with a few.

Both Shaw and Tamaddon keep the same partner (In fact Hayley and her partner are childhood friends who has won this 3 times and been on every series and is defiantly a fans favourite, he also won last year with Beth Tweedle). Kyran’s original partner is no longer on the show.

Dangers:

Ray Quinn is favourite because he was top every week from the judges and was popular with the public, But he is not in a soap anymore and has not come off the X Factor like last time.

Beth Tweedle won last year and is an Olympian, but I’m sure that will only get her so far, especially as she is not just coming off an Olympic medal. Her best price is 12-1 with sky so there maybe a couple of quid on the win,  but there is no each way.

Sam Attwater won his series in not a particularly strong year, but also his partner that he won with is paired with Gareth Gates, not sure why she would be with Gareth as he was only 4th on his year. Sam is also no longer in a soap so may not be as popular with the public. I think 8-1 to short.

I cant see any of the others winning, a few are in for the comedy value so will last a few weeks but cant be saved buy the public forever, but it will cause the middle of the pack to be in trouble as they will end up in the bottom two and someone must go.

There is not a lot of money on Betfair at the moment for this however what there is has Hayley 7/2 Kyran 15/2 and Suzanne 7/1, these are the three for me.

Credentials: Certainly do not want to after time, but just to back up my track record, I had the winner of the X factor at 8-1, I had 2nd in Celebrity big brother at 25-1 and i had 2nd in Im a Celeb get me out of her at 34-1. This time i thought i would share my thoughts, watch them all lose now!