Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

2 x £10 win singles = chunky, it seems



With notional roll starting at £3k and over £5k of profits since, there's definitely an argument for upping stakes as we are off a bigger bank than we were in January 2012.......

Now then, you make a very interesting point there.

Chunky - sorry, Chompy - said much the same thing earlier this week, & others have said the same.

Note, by the bye, that we have nearly £3,000 (three thousand pounds) tied up in future liabilities. That is a serious lump of money to me. I'm very confident it will earn at least 5% of course, no worries on that score, but where do we draw the line? £5,000? £10,000? Standard Max Bets @ £500, £1,000?

I've actually been thinking very hard, partly prompted by Chompy's suggestion to up the stakes.

I'm such a nit by nature, & I don't want to start feeling uncomfortable when bets lose because they are big enough to hurt. Sod all that "it only matters if it hurts" stuff, been there, done that, I've had my share of hurt, & I don't want anymore, it's downhill & singing all the way to the buffers now for me.

What I have been musing - seriously - for some time now is maybe it is time someone else took my "role" over, or at least shared it with me somehow? I've loved every minute of this, really, but it is incredibly time-intensive on occasion, & it is making some areas of my life a bit cramped now. It needs constantly "working" to keep it ticking over nicely.

I am ok with a bit of pain for a bit of gain, deffo, but maybe Fred needs & deserves to get a bit more serious now, & better utilise the amazing array of talent we have at our disposal?

Applicants apply within, as they say.

[bobby1]

Conference value


Disclaimer -  don't know much about Alfreton Town beyond what is publically available from league tables, results, form guides etc

I did though watch Barnet play on a terrible pitch on Wednesday, at Luton

Tomorrow they play their fourth game in nine days at home to Alfreton

During this time Alfreton were winning successive home matches while Barnet travelled to Salisbury and Luton


Alfreton have five straight wins and have risen to third in the table

Barnet three straight defeats


The prices for this game? Barnet 11/10, Alfreton 14/5!


---

Hereford United have lost 2 of 8 and are away at Woking tomorrow

Woking had two lads on loan in the first half of the season, scored 15 goals between them, Both have gone now though one back to parent club one into the football league

http://nonleague.pitchero.com/news/woking-lose-loan-strikers-27869/


Prices for this one


Woking 5/4 Hereford 14/5!



Can't see how either away team are nearly 3-1 here


Suggest a chunky (copyright Chompy) away win double (copyright edgascoigne) (or two singles if you must)

Excellent work.

Two SINGLES placed, a chunky on each.

Now, to prove I am open-minded (I'm not) & receptive to good ideas (I'm not), and not stubborn (I am) if someone wants to convince me that this is a good double, then I'll place a Double, too.

Off you go lads......

2 BETS PLACED

The thing is.....if we have faith in Rich's selections (which we should, given his proven ROI, selection of relatively niche markets for recommends where a positive expectation is highly feasible, knowledge of the subject matter) then we are right to bet them as singles.

If we are right to bet the two of them as singles....we should definitely have a tickle of a double. From a purely £ev perspective the double should actually be a larger bet....though from a utility/morale standpoint it probably makes sense to have a smaller stake compared to the two singles. If you are betting £25 each of them for example I would definitely conseil a £10 double.

OK, I'm a man of my word, so we will do a Double on these two.

Slight problem here is that Tighty never recomended how much to bet, an increasing habit by many of late, & I use that as a measure of confidence during my scientific head-scratching process.  He just said "a chunky", which I believe is Fred-speak for a tenner, so we had £10 on each.

That makes the maths for the amount in the double a bit awkward, but we'll have a £5 double now. I acknowledge that is a bit askew, but it's just an experiment, & I'll take the blame if it goes wrong.

For fairness, we would need to do a string of doubles in the coming weeks & months, but how many? 10? 20? I doubt 50 is enough to make, or not, the case. Actually, we all know the case is made, in favour of Lord Ed G, but I just don't like them, & then there is that volatility thing & our limited 'roll.
 

50 each and a pony double at least guvnor?

Or even getting with the away teams plus a half too to bigger stakes. It's proper good old fashioned great work by Tighty, the Woking stuff is the exact stuff that gets missed by oddsmakers.

Think we need a tiddlearse icon Tony for when Ebeneezer Kendall next puts a tenner on a footy match. I suggest a picture of Alistair Sim as Scrooge if Tal would be so kind.  

Thanks

[tikay]

Conference value


Disclaimer -  don't know much about Alfreton Town beyond what is publically available from league tables, results, form guides etc

I did though watch Barnet play on a terrible pitch on Wednesday, at Luton

Tomorrow they play their fourth game in nine days at home to Alfreton

During this time Alfreton were winning successive home matches while Barnet travelled to Salisbury and Luton


Alfreton have five straight wins and have risen to third in the table

Barnet three straight defeats


The prices for this game? Barnet 11/10, Alfreton 14/5!


---

Hereford United have lost 2 of 8 and are away at Woking tomorrow

Woking had two lads on loan in the first half of the season, scored 15 goals between them, Both have gone now though one back to parent club one into the football league

http://nonleague.pitchero.com/news/woking-lose-loan-strikers-27869/


Prices for this one


Woking 5/4 Hereford 14/5!



Can't see how either away team are nearly 3-1 here


Suggest a chunky (copyright Chompy) away win double (copyright edgascoigne) (or two singles if you must)

Excellent work.

Two SINGLES placed, a chunky on each.

Now, to prove I am open-minded (I'm not) & receptive to good ideas (I'm not), and not stubborn (I am) if someone wants to convince me that this is a good double, then I'll place a Double, too.

Off you go lads......

2 BETS PLACED

The thing is.....if we have faith in Rich's selections (which we should, given his proven ROI, selection of relatively niche markets for recommends where a positive expectation is highly feasible, knowledge of the subject matter) then we are right to bet them as singles.

If we are right to bet the two of them as singles....we should definitely have a tickle of a double. From a purely £ev perspective the double should actually be a larger bet....though from a utility/morale standpoint it probably makes sense to have a smaller stake compared to the two singles. If you are betting £25 each of them for example I would definitely conseil a £10 double.

OK, I'm a man of my word, so we will do a Double on these two.

Slight problem here is that Tighty never recomended how much to bet, an increasing habit by many of late, & I use that as a measure of confidence during my scientific head-scratching process.  He just said "a chunky", which I believe is Fred-speak for a tenner, so we had £10 on each.

That makes the maths for the amount in the double a bit awkward, but we'll have a £5 double now. I acknowledge that is a bit askew, but it's just an experiment, & I'll take the blame if it goes wrong.

For fairness, we would need to do a string of doubles in the coming weeks & months, but how many? 10? 20? I doubt 50 is enough to make, or not, the case. Actually, we all know the case is made, in favour of Lord Ed G, but I just don't like them, & then there is that volatility thing & our limited 'roll.
 

50 each and a pony double at least guvnor?

Or even getting with the away teams plus a half too to bigger stakes. It's proper good old fashioned great work by Tighty, the Woking stuff is the exact stuff that gets missed by oddsmakers.

Think we need a tiddlearse icon Tony for when Ebeneezer Kendall next puts a tenner on a footy match. I suggest a picture of Alistair Sim as Scrooge if Tal would be so kind.  

Thanks

Ha!

Seriously, I keep hinting, but never get feedback. If people don't recommend an amount, then I am going to pluck a number out of the air, fearful that if I bet too big, someone will arrive an hour later & tell me it is a bad bet.

I've NEVER downgraded the bet size of an Elder, though I confess I hide in the toilet when Dubai arrives in the thread sometimes. I'll be hiding tonight, too (CBB) & on Sun Alliance day......  

If Tighty fancies those bets should be £50, or £100, thats what we'll do. But he never suggested a sum, only hinted at a chunky chompy.......

One thing we must be careful of though - the market on these games must be a bit sensitive, & we need to be wary of damaging further our remaining "clean" Accounts.

[The Camel]

On the NFL stuff, I am trying to write up every play off match-up so I don't think for this thread, which should be more selective, that people should be blanket-backing each recommendation. The bets (KC+2.5 for example) are my view but I wouldn't claim any great mis-pricing. Note I didn't put them on here

There is probably more value in the sub markets for the individual games

For example on Sunday the peak temperature in Green Bay is expected to be -10c, with wind chill taking field temperature to -30c.

Green Bay play the 49ers and both will have no choice but to run it a lot

The 49ers have Frank Gore, a really punishing runner behind one of the league's best lines

The Packers have rookie Eddie Lacy who is a real load

Both could score multiple touchdowns in the game, though preference is for Gore because the Packers run defense is lacking compared to what Lacy will have to face

So if Paddy Power for example do offers like double odds if he scores twice etc, then thats the way to get value in these games 

Lacy looked massively hobbled by his ankle injury last week.

I'd prefer to take a flyer on James Starks at a huge price, who has had a big season and Fat Mike really likes.

[The Camel]

buyers of the ken payne quotes for tft in 2014 are already beating the 0.5 spread

Proper character, him.

I bet many here have never heard of him. 

Oooo I bought a book (prob was his autobiography) about Ken Payne twenty or more years ago.

Have zero clue where it is, but next time I'm at my Mum's house I'll have a scout around the loft to see if I can locate it so I can lend it to you.

Can confirm Ken Payne was a legitimate hero.

[JoeBeevers]

That's brilliant, chaps. My assumptions really aren't based on much, so I'm genuinely grateful for the insight from more experienced NFLers.

Am happy to mull that over (I'll change conclusions quite freely and happily if that's what the numbers tell me to do), but I do keep coming back to the question of whether it really is a coin flip as to whether it is Team A or Team B that throws the first red flag.

Probably not a coin flip but at odds of 5/6 we have a 17% advantage to overcome.

It's only 4.55% per selection, isn't it? One eleventh combined? You're still right, of course.

I don't know. 5/6 about an even money shot looks massive to me. Perhaps Doibs could help ?

I think we can manage without Doobs, he says ambitiously...

5/6 shot wins 6 times out of every 11 played on average. That's 54.54545...% of the time.

If it only has a 50% chance of winning in reality, you are down 4.55%

The overround of a 5/6-5/6 market is 1/11th, so roughly 9%

Thanks

sonour, sorry to butt in but I think what you did was confuse the decimal price with the % book.

5/6 is 1.83 in decimal odds - I am guessing that is why you thought it a 17% edge to overcome but Tal's post above explains the correct % book.

[The Camel]

buyers of the ken payne quotes for tft in 2014 are already beating the 0.5 spread

Proper character, him.

I bet many here have never heard of him. 

Oooo I bought a book (prob was his autobiography) about Ken Payne twenty or more years ago.

Have zero clue where it is, but next time I'm at my Mum's house I'll have a scout around the loft to see if I can locate it so I can lend it to you.

Can confirm Ken Payne was a legitimate hero.

Save time, you can buy it on Amazon for 1p

http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Coup-Ken-Payne/dp/1874645167

Very good read if I remember correctly.

[tikay]

buyers of the ken payne quotes for tft in 2014 are already beating the 0.5 spread

Proper character, him.

I bet many here have never heard of him. 

Oooo I bought a book (prob was his autobiography) about Ken Payne twenty or more years ago.

Have zero clue where it is, but next time I'm at my Mum's house I'll have a scout around the loft to see if I can locate it so I can lend it to you.

Can confirm Ken Payne was a legitimate hero.

Thank you Keith.

You'll barely believe this, but horsey already loaned me that very book, about a year ago, which was very kind of him. And I've yet to return it, which is very unkind of me....

Back in the day, yes, quite a character was K Payne. He once ran a horse TWICE on the same day, may have been at Edinburgh (Now called Musselburgh?). 

Think the book MAY be called "The Coup", I'm not 100% sure.

[tikay]

buyers of the ken payne quotes for tft in 2014 are already beating the 0.5 spread

Proper character, him.

I bet many here have never heard of him. 

Oooo I bought a book (prob was his autobiography) about Ken Payne twenty or more years ago.

Have zero clue where it is, but next time I'm at my Mum's house I'll have a scout around the loft to see if I can locate it so I can lend it to you.

Can confirm Ken Payne was a legitimate hero.

Save time, you can buy it on Amazon for 1p

http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Coup-Ken-Payne/dp/1874645167

Very good read if I remember correctly.

Not a best seller then, very inappropriately for the King of Sellers.

[horseplayer]

i think i paid £1.99 delivered

missed the value there

[Doobs]

That's brilliant, chaps. My assumptions really aren't based on much, so I'm genuinely grateful for the insight from more experienced NFLers.

Am happy to mull that over (I'll change conclusions quite freely and happily if that's what the numbers tell me to do), but I do keep coming back to the question of whether it really is a coin flip as to whether it is Team A or Team B that throws the first red flag.

Probably not a coin flip but at odds of 5/6 we have a 17% advantage to overcome.

It's only 4.55% per selection, isn't it? One eleventh combined? You're still right, of course.

I don't know. 5/6 about an even money shot looks massive to me. Perhaps Doibs could help ?

Am out with kids, but the right answer is about 9%

[bobby1]

It's tricky for sure but my thoughts would be if you are betting them then the stakes need to be a little bigger, not because its dick waving but because if the bet is deemed worthy of a bet then have a bet. One thing I have noticed is the stakes at the end of a good month seem to get smaller, looks like you are defending a winning period instead of staking solely on the merit of the selections. Maybe this has crept into the general level of staking too.

Obv some people would rather have smaller bets when they put up selections and you don't want to make people uncomfortable if they are worried about you losing a bullseye on their recommendation. In general tho you now have a track record and the means to have a little more on. Just my opinion of course, and you know my thoughts about punters betting loads of Prem lge and higher football league matches which are very unlikely to have any major edges. But Chompy's thoughts on Peterboro or Tighty's non league thoughts are worth far more because they come from good people and are on matches that most of the firms will not have even looked at when throwing prices out. So they are the spots you should be having more on, not less because they are bigger prices. ( did you have 60 quid at 4/6 on a game last night but 2 tenner bets at 14/5 today?)

At some stage you might just have to accept that getting the abs best price isn't going to be possible on every selection due to restrictions and to get more on you will have to take under best price. I know this sounds bad practice but if someone tips up 20 quid at 12/1 on a horse/first scorer/skier and you can only get £3.24  or so then you should consider getting on at the next best price instead of just having the tiny amounts on.

[Doobs]

That's brilliant, chaps. My assumptions really aren't based on much, so I'm genuinely grateful for the insight from more experienced NFLers.

Am happy to mull that over (I'll change conclusions quite freely and happily if that's what the numbers tell me to do), but I do keep coming back to the question of whether it really is a coin flip as to whether it is Team A or Team B that throws the first red flag.

Probably not a coin flip but at odds of 5/6 we have a 17% advantage to overcome.

It's only 4.55% per selection, isn't it? One eleventh combined? You're still right, of course.

I don't know. 5/6 about an even money shot looks massive to me. Perhaps Doibs could help ?

I think we can manage without Doobs, he says ambitiously...

5/6 shot wins 6 times out of every 11 played on average. That's 54.54545...% of the time.

If it only has a 50% chance of winning in reality, you are down 4.55%

The overround of a 5/6-5/6 market is 1/11th, so roughly 9%

Need that school for gifted children cartoon where the door says pull

[BigAdz]

It's tricky for sure but my thoughts would be if you are betting them then the stakes need to be a little bigger, not because its dick waving but because if the bet is deemed worthy of a bet then have a bet. One thing I have noticed is the stakes at the end of a good month seem to get smaller, looks like you are defending a winning period instead of staking solely on the merit of the selections. Maybe this has crept into the general level of staking too.

Obv some people would rather have smaller bets when they put up selections and you don't want to make people uncomfortable if they are worried about you losing a bullseye on their recommendation. In general tho you now have a track record and the means to have a little more on. Just my opinion of course, and you know my thoughts about punters betting loads of Prem lge and higher football league matches which are very unlikely to have any major edges. But Chompy's thoughts on Peterboro or Tighty's non league thoughts are worth far more because they come from good people and are on matches that most of the firms will not have even looked at when throwing prices out. So they are the spots you should be having more on, not less because they are bigger prices.

At some stage you might just have to accept that getting the abs best price isn't going to be possible on every selection due to restrictions and to get more on you will have to take under best price. I know this sounds bad practice but if someone tips up 20 quid at 12/1 on a horse/first scorer/skier and you can only get £3.24  or so then you should consider getting on at the next best price instead of just having the tiny amounts on.

Wisest words spouted for many a day

[sonour]

That's brilliant, chaps. My assumptions really aren't based on much, so I'm genuinely grateful for the insight from more experienced NFLers.

Am happy to mull that over (I'll change conclusions quite freely and happily if that's what the numbers tell me to do), but I do keep coming back to the question of whether it really is a coin flip as to whether it is Team A or Team B that throws the first red flag.

Probably not a coin flip but at odds of 5/6 we have a 17% advantage to overcome.

It's only 4.55% per selection, isn't it? One eleventh combined? You're still right, of course.

I don't know. 5/6 about an even money shot looks massive to me. Perhaps Doibs could help ?

I think we can manage without Doobs, he says ambitiously...

5/6 shot wins 6 times out of every 11 played on average. That's 54.54545...% of the time.

If it only has a 50% chance of winning in reality, you are down 4.55%

The overround of a 5/6-5/6 market is 1/11th, so roughly 9%

Thanks

sonour, sorry to butt in but I think what you did was confuse the decimal price with the % book.

5/6 is 1.83 in decimal odds - I am guessing that is why you thought it a 17% edge to overcome but Tal's post above explains the correct % book.

Thanks Joe. Yes, I thought we were getting 83% instead of 100%.

So it's 100/1.83 + 100/1.83 = 109%

I did know that, not quite sure why I couldn't see it.