Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

Some Ryman league value incoming, just for some reason do not feel up to the task of writing the world on it just now. Probably will be up before sunrise. The gist is a 4/1 that should probably be closer to a 3/1-5/2 shot.

Probably will just need to re read Tighty's recommends on lower league earlier to get my juices flowing.  

Morning Ant.

Don't worry about producing a full length essay, just the pertinent points as to value. I know I mostly swerve your incessent Palace stuff, but away from Palace, your logic is generally tip-top.  

One word of caution today though, the weather will play havoc with football, & bad pitches are a tremendous leveller.

Cheers, well i have it all written out and the weather actually helps the bet, but I was wondering where I am getting the maths wrong in this possible suggestion of...

If 19/5 is being offered for the win for a team and 7/2 for the draw, if i was to back both at a tenner each, I would be effectively getting over 2/1 on either result coming in? So why is it that for this market 5/4 was being offered as the double chance? Am I doing something wrong. Would like to know of this before I put the tip up, if anyone can help please?

[BigAdz]

Luisa is huge at 35s
She turned people from hating her to liking her in the apprentice.

She's intelligent, not afraid to tell people exactly how it is and is hot. Can you back each way in big brother and hope does it work? Was really shocked at 35s.

Not sure people liked her, just the rest had no idea at all mate.

Keep her in though. Eye candy indeed

[Doobs]

Some Ryman league value incoming, just for some reason do not feel up to the task of writing the world on it just now. Probably will be up before sunrise. The gist is a 4/1 that should probably be closer to a 3/1-5/2 shot.

Probably will just need to re read Tighty's recommends on lower league earlier to get my juices flowing.  

Morning Ant.

Don't worry about producing a full length essay, just the pertinent points as to value. I know I mostly swerve your incessent Palace stuff, but away from Palace, your logic is generally tip-top.  

One word of caution today though, the weather will play havoc with football, & bad pitches are a tremendous leveller.

Cheers, well i have it all written out and the weather actually helps the bet, but I was wondering where I am getting the maths wrong in this possible suggestion of...

If 19/5 is being offered for the win for a team and 7/2 for the draw, if i was to back both at a tenner each, I would be effectively getting over 2/1 on either result coming in? So why is it that for this market 5/4 was being offered as the double chance? Am I doing something wrong. Would like to know of this before I put the tip up, if anyone can help please?

You are doing something wrong.  7/2 is 22%, 19/5 is 21%.  Combined 43% is roughly 5/4

[Omm]

Luisa is huge at 35s
She turned people from hating her to liking her in the apprentice.

She's intelligent, not afraid to tell people exactly how it is and is hot. Can you back each way in big brother and hope does it work? Was really shocked at 35s.

Not sure people liked her, just the rest had no idea at all mate.

Keep her in though. Eye candy indeed

Remember this is a public vote where as the apprentice was just Sir Sugar Lord Alan doing the firing, not sure the female public will keep her to the end.

Think this is quite a good lineup but initially cannot see the winner, I had a little squeak on The Real Deal as he is just to cool for cats and may have the makeup to get to the end the 16-1 was soon gone on him. I think with this one it might be a wait and see which way the show is going to be edited, if the producers want Lee Ryan to win they may not show some of his disasters whereas if Luisa causes a few flare ups she will be public enemy mo 1. I like the twist with them going for eviction as pairs because some of the pairings are laughable ie Dappy and Liz (thought Jim scored some brownie points by giving away freedom from the Nolan) anyway won't derail TFT any longer. Just to say keep an eye on Evander "the real deal" Holyfield might just be worth a tickle, at the very least each way, if he goes bigger than 12-1 I'll be going back in.

[Chompy]

Lee Ryan no bet at 5/2. Me and horsey are on at 6/1, oi oi.

Luisa is not a no-channer in a race full of no-channers. But she's the sort best backed at shorter once there's some impetus, as she could go dramatically one way or the other. Also, no 35 around, 22/1 is biggest now.

Top Woman could be the most playable market in the short term. Jasmine Waltz is potentially interesting; I don't like the top two in the market at the moment. Sam Faiers is meh and Linda Nolan looks a nightmare.

[Ant040689]

Some Ryman league value incoming, just for some reason do not feel up to the task of writing the world on it just now. Probably will be up before sunrise. The gist is a 4/1 that should probably be closer to a 3/1-5/2 shot.

Probably will just need to re read Tighty's recommends on lower league earlier to get my juices flowing.  

Morning Ant.

Don't worry about producing a full length essay, just the pertinent points as to value. I know I mostly swerve your incessent Palace stuff, but away from Palace, your logic is generally tip-top.  

One word of caution today though, the weather will play havoc with football, & bad pitches are a tremendous leveller.

Cheers, well i have it all written out and the weather actually helps the bet, but I was wondering where I am getting the maths wrong in this possible suggestion of...

If 19/5 is being offered for the win for a team and 7/2 for the draw, if i was to back both at a tenner each, I would be effectively getting over 2/1 on either result coming in? So why is it that for this market 5/4 was being offered as the double chance? Am I doing something wrong. Would like to know of this before I put the tip up, if anyone can help please?

You are doing something wrong.  7/2 is 22%, 19/5 is 21%.  Combined 43% is roughly 5/4

I realised the mistake I had in my own calculations, I added the stake back on against giving me a whole point more than I should have. Slow.

In what you said though, how do you arrive at those percentages for those odds and what are they representing? Like I would have thought 7/2 was 350% if anything. Not afraid to look like a fool among the shrewdites.

[horseplayer]

thankfully i will not have to watch another minute of that utter shite after last night

edit : quite enjoyed it

[tikay]

thankfully i will not have to watch another minute of that utter shite after last night

edit : quite enjoyed it

Ha! say what you think, John, let it all out.

I love it, me. Sam in the House, BOOM, Nick Nick too, the Two Gemmas in Splash, incred times. Love reality tv.

[tikay]

Luisa is huge at 35s
She turned people from hating her to liking her in the apprentice.

She's intelligent, not afraid to tell people exactly how it is and is hot. Can you back each way in big brother and hope does it work? Was really shocked at 35s.

You sure? Looks like a 34b to me.

[Chompy]

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[tikay]

Ooh, a chompy photo gallery, top man, thank you.

Who are photo's 2 & 5?

I'm a BIG Jim Davidson fan, obv.

[Tal]

Michaela Strachan as the game girl? 20/1 for a deep sea diver?

Stage school, seems in reasonable shape, well known to the public and a few personal stories possible about her kids, her battle with anorexia as a teen, her brief music career, orangutans, being a kissogram, being around Pete Waterman while he's dancing to acid house...

I'll leave it for others to decide, but will have a flutter I reckon.

What does "seems in reasonable shape" mean, exactly, Mr Tal?

Michaela is now 16/1 best.

deep sea diver - very appropriate......

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/splash/winner

Means nothing more than it says, of course. Would expect that, to win a diving competition, you would need to be athletic, as there's a fair bit of gymnastics in all that twisting, turning and piking.

You have to love this thread sometimes. I tip something that fails spectacularly and I get the grief for not knowing anything. I tip something that might not be complete guff and I'm accused of stealing it off an East Anglian local rag.

Don't worry. It won't win

Reckon some people ITT are worried about the evening's football.

[horseplayer]

surprised no ladbrokes related pic of last nights farce

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £175.16

Outstanding Bets £2822.12

Free bet to use ONE TODAY WILLIAM HILL

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=34

In protest at 14 pages of Celebrity Biggest Bollocks on this thread since I posted last, there will not be a daily report today.

Some one has to make a stand at the decline in modern life, from which I hoped the thread would be spared

Click to see full-size image.

We made £21 yesterday.


p.s The England top six have so far made 969 runs in the series. The Australian bottom five (Haddin and bowlers) 1156 runs. We've been mashed.

[tikay]

One for the notebook tomorrow.

At 5pm, covered on BT Sport I think, our friends Fiorentina play Livorno. We are 1/3 shots tomorrow. Are you watching, BWin?


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/italy/serie-a/fiorentina-v-livorno/winner