Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

ask him if he is aware of any news on gray please Tal

He says he's been tipping Jordan Speith for months.

[Chompy]

Nikhi Nahki news

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/sport/10916913.Bermuda_crazy_for_news_of_Bradford_City_striker_Wells/?ref=var_0

"With all due respect, clubs the size of Peterborough and Huddersfield are not that enticing.  In terms of support and history, City have more to offer".  The Bermudan PM puts the Chompster in his place.

In other news, Bradford have already turned down an offer.  Please hold, one time etc.

Ha! Huddersfield will be fumming. They see themselves as a big club. Tbf they're bigger than Poshies, as are Bradford. Peterborough is not a football city, never has been, never will be.

There is zero chance Nikhi Nakhi will be coming to our place. Even less chance Stevie May will be, even though we're 6/1 favs to sign him this month. He's being watched by Man Utd ffs.

[tikay]

Nikhi Nahki news

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/sport/10916913.Bermuda_crazy_for_news_of_Bradford_City_striker_Wells/?ref=var_0

"With all due respect, clubs the size of Peterborough and Huddersfield are not that enticing.  In terms of support and history, City have more to offer".  The Bermudan PM puts the Chompster in his place.

In other news, Bradford have already turned down an offer.  Please hold, one time etc.

Ha! Huddersfield will be fumming. They see themselves as a big club. Tbf they're bigger than Poshies, as are Bradford. Peterborough is not a football city, never has been, never will be.

There is zero chance Nikhi Nakhi will be coming to our place. Even less chance Stevie May will be, even though we're 6/1 favs to sign him this month. He's being watched by Man Utd ffs.

I heard Nikhi wants to come to Brentford. That kid aims high, eh?

[tikay]

ask him if he is aware of any news on gray please Tal

He says he's been tipping Jordan Speith for months.

Oi, step aside, 27 Freddies have first claim on Jordan.

[Ant040689]

Some Ryman league value incoming, just for some reason do not feel up to the task of writing the world on it just now. Probably will be up before sunrise. The gist is a 4/1 that should probably be closer to a 3/1-5/2 shot.

Probably will just need to re read Tighty's recommends on lower league earlier to get my juices flowing.  

Morning Ant.

Don't worry about producing a full length essay, just the pertinent points as to value. I know I mostly swerve your incessent Palace stuff, but away from Palace, your logic is generally tip-top.  

One word of caution today though, the weather will play havoc with football, & bad pitches are a tremendous leveller.

Cheers, well i have it all written out and the weather actually helps the bet, but I was wondering where I am getting the maths wrong in this possible suggestion of...

If 19/5 is being offered for the win for a team and 7/2 for the draw, if i was to back both at a tenner each, I would be effectively getting over 2/1 on either result coming in? So why is it that for this market 5/4 was being offered as the double chance? Am I doing something wrong. Would like to know of this before I put the tip up, if anyone can help please?

You are doing something wrong.  7/2 is 22%, 19/5 is 21%.  Combined 43% is roughly 5/4

I realised the mistake I had in my own calculations, I added the stake back on against giving me a whole point more than I should have. Slow.

In what you said though, how do you arrive at those percentages for those odds and what are they representing? Like I would have thought 7/2 was 350% if anything. Not afraid to look like a fool among the shrewdites.

The percentage chance is 100 / decimal odds.
The decimal odds are the fractional odds + 1

So 7/2 is 100 / 4.5 = 22.22 %

And 19/5 is 100 / 4.8 = 20.83 %

Alternatively you can do denominator/sum of numerator & denominator

2/9 = 22.22%
5/24 = 20.83%

To answer what they represent this may help.

Three horse race:

Evens or 1/1
6/4
9/1

Percentage book with no over round or bookmaker edge.
50%
40%
10%

With bookmaker edge built in:
10/11
11/8
8/1

52.4%
42.1%
11.1%

In the first example it is a perfect 100% book with no over round. in the second example the three prices add up to 105.6 giving the bookmaker a theoretical edge of 5.6%

Thanks you two. Appreciated.

Must be a little daunting some of you might have got onto one my tips without me having the faintest idea about the above.

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/bdo-world-championship/stephen-bunting-v-jim-widmayer/correct-score

not from me but the ever mentioned Dave Wholey on twitter thinks the 4-5 with stan james is massive for those that can

big old standout on the link above anyway

edit gone now

weird old compiling that

edit again

for those that can the match handicap of -2.5 is still 4-5 which is obviously the same thing

as chompy would say punish them

[tikay]

For anyone interested I have placed a tenner on the under 190.5 total points on the Bulls v Hawks match tonight. Bulls without Rose and with Boozer doubtfull have completed 10 matches in a row where they havent score more than 80 points. Hawks played yesterday night and got beaten by a 3-point buzzer beater.

For some reason all the firms offer odds of 1.90 on the unders but skybet offer odds of evens. Possible error? We shall see.

Chance is now missed as Sky has lowered their odds and its 1.91 and some companies have also moved the line to 189.5.

I didn't know odds checker was just a great tool.

Morning Greeky. Sorry for the belated reply, but I wanted to reply to this.

Not everyone agrees Oddschecker is a "good tool", and I am a bit biased (read on...) but for a recreational punter, it is absolutely invaluable. Not all Pro punters like it, to be fair.

I've learned a lot from Fred, but the first two lessons were.....

1) Always have a look at Oddschecker before placing your bet.

2) Always check the Betfair Exchange price before placing a bet. (Assuming the Market is listed by them, & is reasonably liquid). Oddly, Oddschecker is rarely accurate as to Betfair Exchange prices, as the prices move, literally, all the time, & Oddschecker has a bit of lag.

Also.....

As you used to play a bit of poker Next Door, & were always very supportive of me, I thought you'd be interested to know that Oddschecker is in the same "family" as Sky Poker, all part of SB&G.

There is, primarily, Sky Bet, Sky Vegas, Sky Poker, Sky Bingo, Oddschecker, SportingLife.com, & a handful of other businesses. In fact, my office in London, in the Ch 861 office, is shared weith Oddschecker, just them & us. About 2 or 3 of us, &, as I look around the office right now, about 20 or 25 of them.  Very interesting & profitable little business, actually, is Oddschecker.

Anyway, I just wanted to bring you up to speed. After all, the more money you win punting, the more I can win off you at PLO, right? I used to school Jaffa Cake, & Tall Bloke Mahrenholz, too. Easy money.

You still pokering these days? I'm playing more than ever, completely addicted again. Daft, really.    

[Ant040689]

Just randomly re the Gray bet we may have had a touch of fortune after the Macclesfield manager, post game admitted he told his players to play forn the draw at 1-1 so they could get some gates money from Hillsborough replay.

Didn't know you could admit to things like that, and by both managers admissions Macclesfield were well on top by the end of the game and without the instruction not to score may well have put our bet to rest with a victory.

I thought there was a statute somewhere that read every football team must attempt to win, or along those lines. Forthrightly admitting after the game you wanted the draw is pretty ballsy.

It made total sense for them

Can't pay next month's wages and for each FA Cup Game home or away each club gets 45% of the gate revenue after costs, same for TV money and incidentals (programmes etc)

a Draw and then a game at a big ground even at a faded giant like Wednesday is much more valuable because

a) Wed fans will turn up anyway
b) Macc have to agree ticket prices

and thus the revenue from two games even if they lose outwieghs the prize money for reaching the fourth round in one match

I understood your points before I posted, but should have made it clearer I knew about their precarious financial position.

It is more to do with advocating unnatural results in the game. It is a dangerous precedent. Of course you can just say it's a one off, its the FA cup and they are in need of a good away gate monies, lets just ignore the fact they intentionally decided not to win a game of football when it was there to be won, but it has knock on effects.

In this case in particular, if Macclesfield went on to win, Stuart Gray may have been far less likely of being appointed today (if he is) and if he does get the job, it would be partly because Macclesfield decided not to push for the win. Could you imagine if Gray then takes Weds down after a dismal season now, when if he had lost, the replacement guy would have brought huge success? Also you are potentially denying the other teams still left in the competition an 'easier game' by having a worse team deciding not to win where they can.

I know the above is just speculation, but you create it by not allowing for natural results.

If you argue too that you need to be looking after your own interests and if a draw or a loss promotes that, then it is fine to look for a draw or loss, it could get a little dangerous near the end of the season in some leagues where a draw or loss could benefit. One position could be if you are in the last one or two games of the season and you occupy, say, 5th place in the Championship. 5th plays 4th in the playoffs and 6th plays 3rd.

Imagine the team that is going to occupy 3rd spot was actually a team occupying 1st for most of the season, but a crippling injury crisis meant that they had lost 8 games straight, and were getting hammered 5-0 every week. They had built enough points to secure 3rd though, with the games left. Your team are in 5th and are potentially up against a very tough form side that would occupy 4th. You could however decide to lose your last game or two to fill 6th spot and give yourself a comfortable journey into the playoff final.

Your actions could potentially send a team down, that wouldn't have been relegated if not for the deliberate loss intentions and change the natural course of a league.

The idea doesn't sit well with me at all. It is fair enough if Macclesfield did this on the sly, but the fact they were boasting about it annoyed me.

[TightEnd]

Bale came back from his latest injury last night, on as a 65th minute sub against Celta Vigo. He did not score

Bale has 7 league goals this season (9 in 16 overal) and we have £100 at 10/11 on under 17.5 goals

----


In La Liga overall we have Villareal and Bilbao in the market without the Big Two

Currently

 1    Barcelona    18    41    49
2    Atlético Madrid    18    36    49
3    Real Madrid    18    31    44
4    Athletic Club    18    3    33
5    Real Sociedad    18    12    32
6    Villarreal    18    12    31

The superb At.Madrid season is making both those bets longer shots by the week.

[horseplayer]

http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/2896/premier-league/2014/01/07/4526542/ravel-morrison-tells-west-ham-he-wants-to-join-fulham

[RickBFA]

Just randomly re the Gray bet we may have had a touch of fortune after the Macclesfield manager, post game admitted he told his players to play forn the draw at 1-1 so they could get some gates money from Hillsborough replay.

Didn't know you could admit to things like that, and by both managers admissions Macclesfield were well on top by the end of the game and without the instruction not to score may well have put our bet to rest with a victory.

I thought there was a statute somewhere that read every football team must attempt to win, or along those lines. Forthrightly admitting after the game you wanted the draw is pretty ballsy.

It made total sense for them

Can't pay next month's wages and for each FA Cup Game home or away each club gets 45% of the gate revenue after costs, same for TV money and incidentals (programmes etc)

a Draw and then a game at a big ground even at a faded giant like Wednesday is much more valuable because

a) Wed fans will turn up anyway
b) Macc have to agree ticket prices

and thus the revenue from two games even if they lose outwieghs the prize money for reaching the fourth round in one match

I understood your points before I posted, but should have made it clearer I knew about their precarious financial position.

It is more to do with advocating unnatural results in the game. It is a dangerous precedent. Of course you can just say it's a one off, its the FA cup and they are in need of a good away gate monies, lets just ignore the fact they intentionally decided not to win a game of football when it was there to be won, but it has knock on effects.

In this case in particular, if Macclesfield went on to win, Stuart Gray may have been far less likely of being appointed today (if he is) and if he does get the job, it would be partly because Macclesfield decided not to push for the win. Could you imagine if Gray then takes Weds down after a dismal season now, when if he had lost, the replacement guy would have brought huge success? Also you are potentially denying the other teams still left in the competition an 'easier game' by having a worse team deciding not to win where they can.

I know the above is just speculation, but you create it by not allowing for natural results.

If you argue too that you need to be looking after your own interests and if a draw or a loss promotes that, then it is fine to look for a draw or loss, it could get a little dangerous near the end of the season in some leagues where a draw or loss could benefit. One position could be if you are in the last one or two games of the season and you occupy, say, 5th place in the Championship. 5th plays 4th in the playoffs and 6th plays 3rd.

Imagine the team that is going to occupy 3rd spot was actually a team occupying 1st for most of the season, but a crippling injury crisis meant that they had lost 8 games straight, and were getting hammered 5-0 every week. They had built enough points to secure 3rd though, with the games left. Your team are in 5th and are potentially up against a very tough form side that would occupy 4th. You could however decide to lose your last game or two to fill 6th spot and give yourself a comfortable journey into the playoff final.

Your actions could potentially send a team down, that wouldn't have been relegated if not for the deliberate loss intentions and change the natural course of a league.

The idea doesn't sit well with me at all. It is fair enough if Macclesfield did this on the sly, but the fact they were boasting about it annoyed me.

The worst thing about this is the idea that a non league club has taken their foot off the peddle and allow us to secure a draw against them.

The last 15 years have been a disaster for Wednesday, its painful being a fan and having to see us manage to draw with Macclesfield.

It always makes me smile when fans from teams in the lower-mid levels of the Premiership moaning about their teams performances. Certain clubs and their fans need to enjoy the moment as it will pass in time. Its easy with hindsight but fans don't realise what they have until it has gone.

[Ant040689]

Just randomly re the Gray bet we may have had a touch of fortune after the Macclesfield manager, post game admitted he told his players to play forn the draw at 1-1 so they could get some gates money from Hillsborough replay.

Didn't know you could admit to things like that, and by both managers admissions Macclesfield were well on top by the end of the game and without the instruction not to score may well have put our bet to rest with a victory.

I thought there was a statute somewhere that read every football team must attempt to win, or along those lines. Forthrightly admitting after the game you wanted the draw is pretty ballsy.

It made total sense for them

Can't pay next month's wages and for each FA Cup Game home or away each club gets 45% of the gate revenue after costs, same for TV money and incidentals (programmes etc)

a Draw and then a game at a big ground even at a faded giant like Wednesday is much more valuable because

a) Wed fans will turn up anyway
b) Macc have to agree ticket prices

and thus the revenue from two games even if they lose outwieghs the prize money for reaching the fourth round in one match

I understood your points before I posted, but should have made it clearer I knew about their precarious financial position.

It is more to do with advocating unnatural results in the game. It is a dangerous precedent. Of course you can just say it's a one off, its the FA cup and they are in need of a good away gate monies, lets just ignore the fact they intentionally decided not to win a game of football when it was there to be won, but it has knock on effects.

In this case in particular, if Macclesfield went on to win, Stuart Gray may have been far less likely of being appointed today (if he is) and if he does get the job, it would be partly because Macclesfield decided not to push for the win. Could you imagine if Gray then takes Weds down after a dismal season now, when if he had lost, the replacement guy would have brought huge success? Also you are potentially denying the other teams still left in the competition an 'easier game' by having a worse team deciding not to win where they can.

I know the above is just speculation, but you create it by not allowing for natural results.

If you argue too that you need to be looking after your own interests and if a draw or a loss promotes that, then it is fine to look for a draw or loss, it could get a little dangerous near the end of the season in some leagues where a draw or loss could benefit. One position could be if you are in the last one or two games of the season and you occupy, say, 5th place in the Championship. 5th plays 4th in the playoffs and 6th plays 3rd.

Imagine the team that is going to occupy 3rd spot was actually a team occupying 1st for most of the season, but a crippling injury crisis meant that they had lost 8 games straight, and were getting hammered 5-0 every week. They had built enough points to secure 3rd though, with the games left. Your team are in 5th and are potentially up against a very tough form side that would occupy 4th. You could however decide to lose your last game or two to fill 6th spot and give yourself a comfortable journey into the playoff final.

Your actions could potentially send a team down, that wouldn't have been relegated if not for the deliberate loss intentions and change the natural course of a league.

The idea doesn't sit well with me at all. It is fair enough if Macclesfield did this on the sly, but the fact they were boasting about it annoyed me.

The worst thing about this is the idea that a non league club has taken their foot off the peddle and allow us to secure a draw against them.

The last 15 years have been a disaster for Wednesday, its painful being a fan and having to see us manage to draw with Macclesfield.

It always makes me smile when fans from teams in the lower-mid levels of the Premiership moaning about their teams performances. Certain clubs and their fans need to enjoy the moment as it will pass in time. Its easy with hindsight but fans don't realise what they have until it has gone.

What a great start to the day it sounds like you are having!

Similar feelings of dread with Palace when in administration in 2010, then last season came like a shot out of nowhere.

You never know what positives may be around the corner sir.

And about fans moaning about their lower mid table Prem existence, I thank Stoke for their position on that front and us getting Pulis. Even if we go down I like what he is doing.

Gray comes across extremely well and his short term record at the helm has been promising, I hope he is employed and flourishes.

[Tal]

Correspondent has been in touch:

We now know that Tremlett is longer in the shower than Carberry

Best question was 'if a tree falls in a forest but no-one is there to hear it will Brad haddin still appeal?'

[Omm]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-manager-to-leave-post

The 33-1 with Sky is a crazy price? Isn't it? If Sam doesn't go who does before end of season?

[BigAdz]

ask him if he is aware of any news on gray please Tal

He says he's been tipping Jordan Speith for months.

Oi, step aside, 27 Freddies have first claim on Jordan.

At least Jordy sent me a birthday card, more than any of you ******* did.

My present to you instead, and I'm keen on a horse that hasn't won for over 5 and a half years. Not a recommend for Fred, but might help for me to pay for a cake.

Huzzah 3.45 Southwell. Move to Mr Apples seems to have put some pep in his pecker and with Mullen getting his first sit, i suspect this may be the day