Tips for Tikay

[BiloxiDesire]

I think I may have found a bit of value with the Tennis final in Sydney this week. I was already on Tomic before the start of the Tournament but as it's gone on I've fancied him to win it more and more. He's now in the final against Juan Martin del Potro.

11/4 available in places for Tomic to win.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-sydney/juan-martin-del-potro-v-bernard-tomic/winner

A run down of the key points for me as to why Tomic can beat Del Potro:

* Home advantage.
* Tomic won this tournament last year (albeit with nobody of the calibre of Del Potro involved).
* Tomic's dad has been banned from attending all tournaments after assaulting Tomic's training partner last year, he has been allowed to attend this tournament, the first one he has in around 8 months.
* Tomic has drawn Nadal in the first round in the Australian Open so he may see this as his last chance to win anything on home soil this year. Won't be as concerned about Fatigue if he's only expecting to be in one round in the Open.
* Del Potro has already dropped sets against inferior players (Stepanek & Mahut).

Points which put me off slightly:

* H2H record reads 1-0 to Del Potro, on the same surface.
* Tomic possibly a little fatigued from longer semi final, has come out and said possibly tired.

I think that the odds should probably be a little closer to 1/2 & 2/1 than the bookies have marked them up.

[doubleup]

As we discussed earlier in the thread there is a slight weather bias in the Sony Open.  The very early starters today would appear to be starting in fairly calm conditions with the wind picking up late in their round.

Jason Kokrak and Daniel Summerhays had good rounds yesterday and are both early off in the morning, so will have the best of the conditions.  Also when they have had a good first round almost 50% of the time* both players have had a good second round.

Summerhays is 25-1 with both Satan and Paddy (different place terms 1/4 and 1/5) Kokrak 25-1 Paddy.  This is to be second round leader

£5 ew on both for a 2nd round Fred golf sweat?




*small sample size warning

[horseplayer]

looks like nick nakhi is moving on

[DungBeetle]

Goodness Liverpool look short at Stoke on Sunday at 4/7.  They've hardly been pulling up trees on the road this season and Stoke are no mugs at the Britannia?

[Tonji]

Women's downhill in Zauchensee, Austria on Saturday.

Home girl, Anna Fenninger topped yesterday's training times. Today's training has been cancelled, giving a positive advantage to Anna who knows the slope well. Additionally she won three titles in the Austrian Nationals a few days ago & looks to be peaking to top form. Negative - she has never won a World Cup downhill, but this season has hovered around the podium spots. Was hoping to get on at 5/1, but PP 9/2 is ok for a tiddle!

Click to see full-size image.

Expecting three other girls to go close. Lara Gut looking better in training after some loss of confidence after her early season dominance. She won on this hill in her junior days.

Maria Hofl-Riesch leads the World Cup overall & her experience keeps her in the frame.

Last years World Cup winner, Tina Maze, has generally been off the pace all season. A recent change in coach could turn her season around.

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-sports/alpine-skiing/womens-alpine:-altenmarkt-zauchensee-downhill/winner

[tikay]

Morning afternoon all.

I'll get caught up shortly, I'm now back Online after being AWOL since yesterday.

[tikay]

Women's downhill in Zauchensee, Austria on Saturday.

Home girl, Anna Fenninger topped yesterday's training times. Today's training has been cancelled, giving a positive advantage to Anna who knows the slope well. Additionally she won three titles in the Austrian Nationals a few days ago & looks to be peaking to top form. Negative - she has never won a World Cup downhill, but this season has hovered around the podium spots. Was hoping to get on at 5/1, but PP 9/2 is ok for a tiddle!

Click to see full-size image.

Expecting three other girls to go close. Lara Gut looking better in training after some loss of confidence after her early season dominance. She won on this hill in her junior days.

Maria Hofl-Riesch leads the World Cup overall & her experience keeps her in the frame.

Last years World Cup winner, Tina Maze, has generally been off the pace all season. A recent change in coach could turn her season around.

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-sports/alpine-skiing/womens-alpine:-altenmarkt-zauchensee-downhill/winner

Thanks Tonji.

Tiddle you said, tiddle it is, I'm afraid (so small I'm too embarrassed to say), but it's all good fun, & we have a nice fun sweat in prospect.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

CORRECTION


Bugger it, I've topped up on that Lady Skiing Downhill Very Fast bet & had £5 @ 4/1 with our friends @ BWin, too.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

As we discussed earlier in the thread there is a slight weather bias in the Sony Open.  The very early starters today would appear to be starting in fairly calm conditions with the wind picking up late in their round.

Jason Kokrak and Daniel Summerhays had good rounds yesterday and are both early off in the morning, so will have the best of the conditions.  Also when they have had a good first round almost 50% of the time* both players have had a good second round.

Summerhays is 25-1 with both Satan and Paddy (different place terms 1/4 and 1/5) Kokrak 25-1 Paddy.  This is to be second round leader

£5 ew on both for a 2nd round Fred golf sweat?




*small sample size warning

Thank you 2xUp.

I've backed both, purely on the excellent grounds that tomorrow's Picture Gallery could be very interesting indeed if Mr Kokrak comes good, even allowing for sample size.


Mr Paddy Power would have permitted us £5.16 EW, but we decided not to be greedy, & had £5 EW on each.

2 BETS PLACED

[tikay]

I think I may have found a bit of value with the Tennis final in Sydney this week. I was already on Tomic before the start of the Tournament but as it's gone on I've fancied him to win it more and more. He's now in the final against Juan Martin del Potro.

11/4 available in places for Tomic to win.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-sydney/juan-martin-del-potro-v-bernard-tomic/winner

A run down of the key points for me as to why Tomic can beat Del Potro:

* Home advantage.
* Tomic won this tournament last year (albeit with nobody of the calibre of Del Potro involved).
* Tomic's dad has been banned from attending all tournaments after assaulting Tomic's training partner last year, he has been allowed to attend this tournament, the first one he has in around 8 months.
* Tomic has drawn Nadal in the first round in the Australian Open so he may see this as his last chance to win anything on home soil this year. Won't be as concerned about Fatigue if he's only expecting to be in one round in the Open.
* Del Potro has already dropped sets against inferior players (Stepanek & Mahut).

Points which put me off slightly:

* H2H record reads 1-0 to Del Potro, on the same surface.
* Tomic possibly a little fatigued from longer semi final, has come out and said possibly tired.

I think that the odds should probably be a little closer to 1/2 & 2/1 than the bookies have marked them up.

Thanks Bilox,

Looks like some great research there, thank you.

Why did Tomic's dad assault his son's training partner? What a thing.

Don't have the faintest idea if this is value, but it's your first Fred Bet I think, & anyway, I got 3/1 (you suggested 11/4) with our very good friends at Camel's favourite bookie, Sporting Bet. Love those guys, love 'em.

Thank you, & good luck.

Looks like we are betting at Events across the globe this weekend, Sydney, Switzerland, USA, & Cardiff.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

A good win for our wildcats last night beating the UCLA bruins in LA which is always difficult we withstood a 13-0 run late inthe 2nd half to finally win 79-75

write up and highlights here: http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=400506077

Thanks for the Update, keep them coming please.

[tikay]

ODI Cricket.

In that matter of Mitchell Johnson, & those horrible people @ Sporting Index.

Johnson has now been removed from all Markets, but our man remains generally a 7/2 shot. In fact, they seem to have around 5 bowlers all at much the same price. 



http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/australia-v-england/odi-series/australia-v-england-%5b1st-odi%5d/top-australia-bowler

[TightEnd]

No time

Indy at Patriots

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/indianapolis-colts-at-new-england-patriots/total-rushing-yds-donald-brown

http://www.patspulpit.com/2014/1/6/5280922/patriots-vs-colts-playoffs-watch-out-for-donald-brown

Could easily make 100+ at New England in cold weather, and with the many Patriots injuries defending the run at Defensive tackle and linebacker

Ladbrokes at 60 is too low. I would PREFER a combined receiving/rushing quote (c 100 yards?) if anyone sees one, but this is an example of sub market value compared to the very efficient NFL play off major betting markets

[tikay]

No time

Indy at Patriots

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/indianapolis-colts-at-new-england-patriots/total-rushing-yds-donald-brown

http://www.patspulpit.com/2014/1/6/5280922/patriots-vs-colts-playoffs-watch-out-for-donald-brown

Could easily make 100+ at New England in cold weather, and with the many Patriots injuries defending the run at Defensive tackle and linebacker

Ladbrokes at 60 is too low. I would PREFER a combined receiving/rushing quote (c 100 yards?) if anyone sees one, but this is an example of sub market value compared to the very efficient NFL play off major betting markets

Thanks Rich, short of time here, too.

Jeez, that Market took some finding on Ladbrokes, & then they Restricted me to £27.50 (I was gonna have £55), but we are on.

BET PLACED

[Bazzaboy]

Receiving and rushing line is 85.5 with Lads.

Edit - now 90.5