|
TightEnd
|
 |
« Reply #65895 on: January 19, 2014, 12:32:46 PM » |
|
There are only 9 former winners priced at <1000-1 (you could add 2% for the rest if you wanted - still 95% book)
oops missed fred couples at 300-1 bernhard langer 750-1
So betting all the realistic former winners and betting the 1st time winner is a guaranteed profit
Right and realistically betting 1st time winner and scott/woods/mickelson is a bit less nitty and does the same, those three being the only serious risks to a previous champ repeating |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
|
|
|
|
horseplayer
|
|
« Reply #65896 on: January 19, 2014, 12:38:45 PM » |
|
hopefully somebody smashed Vikhtar Cambridge in the end won 7-2
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
doubleup
|
|
« Reply #65897 on: January 19, 2014, 12:39:51 PM » |
|
you could do it that way - I'd put zach and charl in there tho as well. Particularly if there is 6 places each way. Anyway that can be left till nearer the time.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Tal
|
|
« Reply #65898 on: January 19, 2014, 12:41:11 PM » |
|
Just before we chip this in from the bunker and call it a golden ferret, is there a risk 4/5 is a palp, given the price doesn't add up, and we end up getting an email from Da Management?  Or are we ok as long as we don't back the previous winners through BMU? |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
|
|
|
|
Tal
|
|
« Reply #65899 on: January 19, 2014, 12:43:05 PM » |
|
I never quite know whether we make too much of a meal of the palp/account closure risk thing. It seems pretty arbitrary from bookie to bookie as it is.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
|
|
|
|
horseplayer
|
|
« Reply #65900 on: January 19, 2014, 12:44:33 PM » |
|
Number of homegrown players used on average in europe leagues | Click to see full-size image. |
 Thought was interesting not that it has anything to do with anything being discussed but then never usually stops me  |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
BigAdz
|
|
« Reply #65901 on: January 19, 2014, 12:51:23 PM » |
|
Am I missing something here? BMU have 4/5 a first time winner for the Masters. Taking the prices of any past winner less than 1000-1 and backing them plus backing the 4/5 seems to be a 93% book?
as 17 5.9
bw 67 1.5
cs 34 2.9
pm 15 6.7
ac 81 1.2
ti 200 0.5
zj 41 2.4
tw 6.5 15.4
vs 300 0.3
1st 1.8 55.6
92.4
Surely a max bet? (unless I'm missing something obv)
No love for this? We'd have a goodly % of the field on our side! I am not sure what it is saying? there are only 9 former winners in this years field? p.s more people giving feedback would be great. Might have laid Liverpool or been Villa +2 (possibly) with feedback! Obv my feedback counts for zip! Thinks thats why you get few replies! |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
|
|
|
|
doubleup
|
|
« Reply #65902 on: January 19, 2014, 12:53:37 PM » |
|
Doubt it can be a palp as it is just a good bet on the present best odds of the relevant players. If Rory and Stenson both get injured its prob not great, but if Tiger and Phil get injured its v good.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
junior91
|
|
« Reply #65903 on: January 19, 2014, 12:55:33 PM » |
|
Has anybody been paid out yet on the Karlberg bet? 365 never usually take this long
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
BigAdz
|
|
« Reply #65904 on: January 19, 2014, 01:01:28 PM » |
|
Has anybody been paid out yet on the Karlberg bet? 365 never usually take this long
One of those small markets, where I would just leave them to it Junior. Push, and they may investigate a bit. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
|
|
|
|
Doobs
|
|
« Reply #65905 on: January 19, 2014, 01:17:10 PM » |
|
I never quite know whether we make too much of a meal of the palp/account closure risk thing. It seems pretty arbitrary from bookie to bookie as it is.
It is fairly arbitrary, but if someone reports that a certain bet/offer is leading to account closures, I think we should definitely take heed. Once thread loses an account that is pretty much it for thread, other than a few kind souls offering to "match" a bookies price. Some bets seem obvious account closures regardless of the general arbitrary nature of closures. I wouldn't want to be putting too many dirty each way multiples through any account for instance. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
|
|
|
|
sonour
|
|
« Reply #65906 on: January 19, 2014, 01:40:37 PM » |
|
Am I missing something here? BMU have 4/5 a first time winner for the Masters. Taking the prices of any past winner less than 1000-1 and backing them plus backing the 4/5 seems to be a 93% book?
as 17 5.9
bw 67 1.5
cs 34 2.9
pm 15 6.7
ac 81 1.2
ti 200 0.5
zj 41 2.4
tw 6.5 15.4
vs 300 0.3
1st 1.8 55.6
92.4
Surely a max bet? (unless I'm missing something obv)
No love for this? We'd have a goodly % of the field on our side! I am not sure what it is saying? there are only 9 former winners in this years field? p.s more people giving feedback would be great. Might have laid Liverpool or been Villa +2 (possibly) with feedback! If there are only nine former winners in the field then I love it. I also laid Liverpool and backed Villa but then I do all your bets. Can I suggest Tighty's selections have auto bet status ? |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
sonour
|
|
« Reply #65907 on: January 19, 2014, 01:43:57 PM » |
|
Has anybody been paid out yet on the Karlberg bet? 365 never usually take this long
No, I haven't been paid yet. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
Doobs
|
|
« Reply #65908 on: January 19, 2014, 01:44:48 PM » |
|
Think we should do the new winner bet for now. I don't really like betting most of the former winners. Real pain lies in backing 80% of the book and still losing. Sure there is a name for that bet.
Edit. I have had a rethink already 4/5 for 2.5 months for a small edge isn't something I am doing on my own coin. Sure it is ok for those with better cash flow.
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: January 19, 2014, 01:47:17 PM by Doobs »
|
Logged
|
Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
|
|
|
|
BigAdz
|
|
« Reply #65909 on: January 19, 2014, 01:53:43 PM » |
|
Think we should do the new winner bet for now. I don't really like betting most of the former winners. Real pain lies in backing 80% of the book and still losing. Sure there is a name for that bet.
Edit. I have had a rethink already 4/5 for 2.5 months for a small edge isn't something I am doing on my own coin. Sure it is ok for those with better cash flow.
That would be my thoughts Doobs, irrelevant as they may be.  |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
|
|
|
|
Author