I have returned, by my sums and from 80 bets placed:
40 free bets at £25 a pop
4 returns of £25 from 'x no bet' markets
36 winners returning £1570.05
I actually had a £400 hedge with
@ 11/10 on ' BTTS - no' when they were 11/10 Friday afternoon as an approximate hedge.
I reckoned my average expectation was c£400. As it is I am £270 in front but in free bets...from which I will prob nick 80-90% back if I'm savvy so not a tremendous result but alright. Always have enjoyed taking money off Lads since they restricted my dad's account for the temerity to be related to me, pathetic shower.
You outlaid £2000 in the offer. You returned £1670 from draw no bets and winners in real cash. You hedged for £400 which failed. So effectively you have £1270 back in cash.
40x25 free bets = £1000 in free bets. You hope for at least 90%-80% of that in real money, so £900-£800. So £2070-£2170 back hopefully, getting you £70-£170 profit?
If the hedge did come in and your free bets didn't come in you would have got £400x2.1 = £840 back to replace the expectancy of the amount you would win from the free bets. Smooth.
Now I am going to explore different avenues just to understand the process better and not trying to rile by hedging unsuccessfully obv, I just really need to break this down into simple man terms.
You decide not to hedge. You just add £400 onto the potential profits above of £70-£170 and that makes £470-£570.
You decide not to hedge and both teams do not score. I am assuming for arguments sake you return the same amount above of £1670. And you go on to make a loss of £330
Would you have returned a similar amount if both teams didn't score of around £1670, or was it inherent in your strategy to make sure if both teams didn't score your returns probably come over £2000? And is that why the offer was too good to turn down in the first place?
Author