Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

Owing to the sheer number of bets and the related contingencies it was difficult to get a perfectly balanced hedge, but I gave it a good go. I left myself long BTTS to compensate for free bet faffage/conversion costs and hassle of time in shop.

Optimal strategy is the longest priced selection you can find where Betfair price is v close to the price you get with the book. This tends to stop happening after about the 12/1 point hence Doobs' post.

Think I ran about 1 standard deviation below expectation where sd=c£125 on gut feel.

Solid, cheers for explaining.

[doubleup]

For anyone wanting to hedge on Betfair here is an idea of the value you can get for your free bets

The plan would be to have the Betfair market up and compare to the Ladbrokes market (can you flick between betting apps??).  You are looking for bets with decent odds where the Ladbrokes are no more than a couple of points worse than Betfair

First column is the odds of a Ladbrokes bet and second column is the return for that bet.

Next column is the Betfair lay odds available and "betfair lay" is the amount you should lay at these odds (obv it might be practical to round down to stop too much faffing about if you are out and about.)

The final column is the value you should get from the bet NB You only win when the bet loses

Click to see full-size image.

E&OE
 

[BigAdz]

Kaldberg settled for those on

 

[sonour]

So put £1000 on a 10/1 chance, about which it's possible to lay back on Betdaq at about the same price?

How much would one lay back?

Paging Doobs.

For a stake not returned bet, At back and lay odds of 10/1 :-

At zero commission you should lay £909.09 for a return of £909.09 win or lose.
At 3% commission lay £911.58 for a return of £884.20 if the selection wins and £884.23 if it loses.

[The Camel]

Ball down at the one

[sonour]

Moreno !!!!!!

Thank you Tighty. Not even a sweat.

[horseplayer]

very ul again camel

twice in a row

[The Camel]

Moreno !!!!!!

Thank you Tighty. Not even a sweat.

?

[The Camel]

Pretty sick, 2 tries from the one, didn't get in.

Dem's the breaks.

[JaffaCake]

Just spoke to Arbboy, he's banned from Blonde, can't remember why so if his input isn't welcome feel free to delete. He is a really shrewd sports punter tho and his input is welcome from me.

He had 44 bets and won only 7, 18 odds-on, 7 shorter than 1-3 and 0-9 in the odds/evens goals flips! I didn't place this many but ran the same in the flips, maybe Laddies do run good! Anyway, he's just been to his first shop and got the 1200 in free bets no quibbling, so doesn't seem like it's gonna be a big deal. His strategy is to find live 10-1 shots to back in shop and lay them on the machine, reckons that'll convert at £23 per bet, with a bit of leg work to and from the shops.

I've not had my online freebies yet like...

[swinebag22]

Sigh - that TD sums up our month

[JaffaCake]

Fkin Bobby Ball, launch yerself over the top son

[Doobs]

arbing your free bets may be appealing in the short run, but long run is just going to cost money

[sonour]

Bear with me on this. I am probably an idiot, but as to the best of my knowledge Marky hasn't posted about this yet I am probably safe from the knockers

Aston Villa are 14-1 to win at Anfield tomorrow

- We know their style is more suited to playing on the counter away from home with (preferably) Agbonlahor and Weimann playing off Benteke

- We know that with Vlaar back, a defensive organiser, they are more robust at the back

- We have seen the first flickerings of a return to form from Benteke, against Arsenal

The record this season is Home P11 W 2 D 2 L7, Away W4 D 3 L3, 8 goals scored at home, 12 goals scored away

..so this does back up they are more effective when they don't have to come on to the game and can counter


Everyone knows Liverpool's home record - won 10 of their last 11 home league games (W10 D0 L1) and won the last seven in a row. Thats priced in at Liverpool 1/5

Is there any argument at all for going contrarian and laying Liverpool, backing Villa, Villa on the handicap (13/10 +2 is available)?

I think I like Villa +2. I shall now go for a long walk to clear my head.

I think it is a nonsensical hype price (the 1/5 Liverpool).  Its quite nice to know that the market still comes up with them to be honest. 

It was heartily endorsed by Redarmi !

[BigAdz]

Moreno !!!!!!

Thank you Tighty. Not even a sweat.

?

Am I missing something???