Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

am slightly surprised the Michael Laudrup price has held up in the sack race market. (16-1 corals)

some positives :

training ground bust up last week fight on training ground police called

Laudrup has lots of history of doing very well in his first season and walking/being sacked within the second

form is awful, had lots of injuries but even so

articles like this fwiw http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/swanseas-michael-laudrup-leave-summer-3048084#.Ut94SBDFLIV

negatives :

until they lose to Napoli cant see him being sacked

seems a stable chairman and quite a big pay off

Overall

No manager to leave or be sacked is a general 5-1 shot before the end of the season even on that the 16-1 seems big even if it takes until the summer for him to leave/be sacked.

[tikay]

Posted this on January 12th

The Camel questioned how many days Paul Ince has left as a Manager?



Paul Ince reckons seven.

So close.

Is it true he was sacked via a text message?

[horseplayer]

appears so, fair to say he was not to popular with former players

Click to see full-size image.

[horseplayer]

another fair looking price boost from our friend uncle fred this morning

Tiger 3-1 from 8am up on website now

[tikay]

See if I can help blast us out of trouble for Jan.

Qatar Masters


Got a fancy for Michael Hoey at very long odds. He has been playing well recently and has a decent course record. He seems to be a lot more consistent and more importantly has been given a slight nodd from a very respected golf pundit who noticed some form connections with a couple of other courses. Good enough for me for a punt at over 100-1.

Available at 100s in various, but I prefer the Betfair option with a few quid available at 150s and 14-1 a top ten placing. May give us a trading position as well.

£10 on each.

Fortune favours the brave!!

Thanks Adzy, BANZAIIIIIIII time!

I know you are very selective with stuff you Post on Fred, so we will get on board.

I have taken 15.5 with Betty for the Top Ten Finish.

I was AWOL last night, & the best I could get for the win this morning was 110. Is that OK? I've taken it, but will take it off-thread if you don't think that price is value.


2 BETS PLACED BUT AWAITING CONFIRMATION


Note for Fred Newbies - this one has a health warning - 100-1 shots don't win very often - they don't need to! - so don't be too disappointed if we don't get there this time. 

[tikay]

another fair looking price boost from our friend uncle fred this morning

Tiger 3-1 from 8am up on website now

Thanks John.

I need some help on that one.

Tiger is generally 9/4 or 5/2. Betfair current quote is 3.6

So we deffo get a tad of value, but this is a 150 runner field. OK, we can discard 75% or so of them, but even though we can get 3/1 about a 5/2 shot, this all looks a bit tight to me.

Thoughts, please.


 http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/farmers-insurance-open/winner

[BigAdz]

See if I can help blast us out of trouble for Jan.

Qatar Masters


Got a fancy for Michael Hoey at very long odds. He has been playing well recently and has a decent course record. He seems to be a lot more consistent and more importantly has been given a slight nodd from a very respected golf pundit who noticed some form connections with a couple of other courses. Good enough for me for a punt at over 100-1.

Available at 100s in various, but I prefer the Betfair option with a few quid available at 150s and 14-1 a top ten placing. May give us a trading position as well.

£10 on each.

Fortune favours the brave!!

Thanks Adzy, BANZAIIIIIIII time!

I know you are very selective with stuff you Post on Fred, so we will get on board.

I have taken 15.5 with Betty for the Top Ten Finish.

I was AWOL last night, & the best I could get for the win this morning was 110. Is that OK? I've taken it, but will take it off-thread if you don't think that price is value.


2 BETS PLACED BUT AWAITING CONFIRMATION


Note for Fred Newbies - this one has a health warning - 100-1 shots don't win very often - they don't need to! - so don't be too disappointed if we don't get there this time. 

Anything over 100s just dandy. Liked the top ten bit and the fact we could trade if things get sweaty. GL us

[tikay]

See if I can help blast us out of trouble for Jan.

Qatar Masters


Got a fancy for Michael Hoey at very long odds. He has been playing well recently and has a decent course record. He seems to be a lot more consistent and more importantly has been given a slight nodd from a very respected golf pundit who noticed some form connections with a couple of other courses. Good enough for me for a punt at over 100-1.

Available at 100s in various, but I prefer the Betfair option with a few quid available at 150s and 14-1 a top ten placing. May give us a trading position as well.

£10 on each.

Fortune favours the brave!!

Thanks Adzy, BANZAIIIIIIII time!

I know you are very selective with stuff you Post on Fred, so we will get on board.

I have taken 15.5 with Betty for the Top Ten Finish.

I was AWOL last night, & the best I could get for the win this morning was 110. Is that OK? I've taken it, but will take it off-thread if you don't think that price is value.


2 BETS PLACED BUT AWAITING CONFIRMATION


Note for Fred Newbies - this one has a health warning - 100-1 shots don't win very often - they don't need to! - so don't be too disappointed if we don't get there this time. 

Anything over 100s just dandy. Liked the top ten bit and the fact we could trade if things get sweaty. GL us

Thanks Adzy.

Yes, I think we need to keep one eye on trading possibilities here.

So, we have (with Betfair).....

£10 WIN @ 110

£10 TOP TEN FINISH @ 15.5

So, that's our January hole sorted......


2 BETS PLACED

[Doobs]

another fair looking price boost from our friend uncle fred this morning

Tiger 3-1 from 8am up on website now

Thanks John.

I need some help on that one.

Tiger is generally 9/4 or 5/2. Betfair current quote is 3.6

So we deffo get a tad of value, but this is a 150 runner field. OK, we can discard 75% or so of them, but even though we can get 3/1 about a 5/2 shot, this all looks a bit tight to me.

Thoughts, please.


 http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/farmers-insurance-open/winner

It seems awfully short, but he has won it 7 times in 13 which explains the price.  I have read before how Woods very much does well at some courses and not others.  Balance that with it is first time out, and he isn't the golfer he once was.

I'd just assume the market is fine and take it if I am undecided.  I have to have a feel a price is seriously wrong to not take one of these offers and I am not sure it is here.

[horseplayer]

no strong view on Tiger as the market must be very close to being right

however we are beating a very liquid betfair price so it cant be a bad bet

[BigAdz]

another fair looking price boost from our friend uncle fred this morning

Tiger 3-1 from 8am up on website now

Thanks John.

I need some help on that one.

Tiger is generally 9/4 or 5/2. Betfair current quote is 3.6

So we deffo get a tad of value, but this is a 150 runner field. OK, we can discard 75% or so of them, but even though we can get 3/1 about a 5/2 shot, this all looks a bit tight to me.

Thoughts, please.


 http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/farmers-insurance-open/winner

It seems awfully short, but he has won it 7 times in 13 which explains the price.  I have read before how Woods very much does well at some courses and not others.  Balance that with it is first time out, and he isn't the golfer he once was.

I'd just assume the market is fine and take it if I am undecided.  I have to have a feel a price is seriously wrong to not take one of these offers and I am not sure it is here.

Rule of thumb. Is he likely to win one in three of every tourny he plays?

Appreciate balance it with record in this/course record etc. whilst a nice boost, doesn't seem exceptional.

[Doobs]

H

no strong view on Tiger as the market must be very close to being right

however we are beating a very liquid betfair price so it cant be a bad bet

That what was kind of what I was saying.  If we really don't like it we can just lay off anyway.  They took £50 off me without hitting any limit FWIW.  Don't know what the max is, was expecting £20!

[Doobs]

another fair looking price boost from our friend uncle fred this morning

Tiger 3-1 from 8am up on website now

Thanks John.

I need some help on that one.

Tiger is generally 9/4 or 5/2. Betfair current quote is 3.6

So we deffo get a tad of value, but this is a 150 runner field. OK, we can discard 75% or so of them, but even though we can get 3/1 about a 5/2 shot, this all looks a bit tight to me.

Thoughts, please.


 http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/farmers-insurance-open/winner

It seems awfully short, but he has won it 7 times in 13 which explains the price.  I have read before how Woods very much does well at some courses and not others.  Balance that with it is first time out, and he isn't the golfer he once was.

I'd just assume the market is fine and take it if I am undecided.  I have to have a feel a price is seriously wrong to not take one of these offers and I am not sure it is here.

Rule of thumb. Is he likely to win one in three of every tourny he plays?

Appreciate balance it with record in this/course record etc. whilst a nice boost, doesn't seem exceptional.

I am not advocating we do so, but this means a bigger price on Spieth... 

I haven't backed him.

[horseplayer]

even allowing him for not being as good as he was (he still won plenty of these type of tourneys last year i believe?)

he has won 7 from 13 here suggests the price is at least good to me

anyway ill leave the golf people to decide

[DungBeetle]

Oh - Azarenka got knocked out last night.  Good for Bouchard position.  Still needs to be beat Li though!