Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

After the 5-0 Ashes and 4-1 ODI Australian victories this winter the England Tour now concludes with three T20 internationals, beginning on Wednesday in Hobart.

The three game series takes place as follows:

29th January Hobart

31st January Melbourne

2nd February Sydney

It is a much changed Australian side from even the ODI series, with the majority of the side rested ahead of a Test Tour to South Africa. There is no Michael Clarke, David Warner, Shane Watson, Mitchell Johnson or Clint McKay and the side is generally inexperienced.

For England, the team is more familiar. Stuart Broad captains and the side has an edge in experience over Australia with seasoned T20 veterans like Luke Wright, Alex Hales, Michael Lumb and Jade Dernbach joining the more successful players from this disappointing tour such as Stokes, Buttler and Morgan in the side.

The Format, T20, is of course randomising from a betting perspective. Favourites are vulnerable over the shorter format where one stand out performance can change a game. In the light of this, while it is not a surprise after this Winter to see Australia strong favourites at 4/6 on the outright it is probably worth opposing with England at 11/8 because of both format and the relative experience of the two teams.

For example. Dernbach and and Broad are in the top ten of of top wicket-takers in T20 in the last 24 months. Australia have no bowler available in the top 25. In the batting, they have Aaron Finch and George Bailey but generally lack the depth and experience that England offer

To back all this up, of the eight Test playing nations Australia are ranked 8th in the T20 format currently and England 6th

If we look at the two possible sides

England

Hales
Lumb
Wright
Morgan
Stokes
Bopara
Buttler
Broad
Bresnan
Tredwell
Dernbach

(Root, Jordan, Rankin, Briggs in the squad)

that is actually experienced, in form in quite a few spots and balanced

For Australia, with South Africa Pending...

Finch
Cameron White
Bailey
Maxwell
Henriques
Christian
Wade
Faulkner
Coulter-Nile
Starc
Hazlewood

I like England's chances at the price. I'd take Finch, Bailey and Faulkner, maybe Coulter-Nile, man for man but not sure I would the others

In addition to finding England at 11/8 outright, we find them at 5/2 to win the three match series 2-1 too. In this format it would be a big surprise to see a 3-0 victory to one side or the other, and for those looking for something slightly punchier than 11/8, 5-2 on a 2-1 scoreline appeals.

Looking at player markets Aaron Finch remains the stand out Australian batting performer. He has nearly 370 runs in a career of nine International T20 matches and comes off an ODI series in which he scored two centuries. In a market without a lot of experienced performers 23/10 with paddy Power should be supported

The English batting market looks a more competitive heat and is headed by Hales, Lumb and Luke Wright. Of these, only Luke Wright has been in good form in the Big Bash T20 competition. They are though likely to be the top three in the order, an advantage in this market.

Whilst Luke Wright is tempting at 4/1, we can get 9/2 with William Hill on Eoin Morgan. Morgan was the top run scorer in the ODI series, with two fifties and a hundred in five matches and will be batting four or five with England relying on him to finish matches. He is the value price in this market

Recommendations (two from those mentioned)

England to win the T20 series 11/8 William Hill

Top England Batsman Eoin Morgan 9/2 William Hill

[Doobs]

Great research on the cricket Rich, but it is closer to 13/8 on Betfair.   Given the gap between the buy and sell, it could get bigger too?

Edit.  Just checked odds Checker, Hills are 7/4.  That explains the difference.  Nothing to see here.

[TightEnd]

Great research on the cricket Rich, but it is closer to 13/8 on Betfair.   Given the gap between the buy and sell, it could get bigger too?

ok, the first game is Wednesday morning/overnight Tuesday our time

For the reasons explained its a randomising format where almost any top 8 side against any other can't be much worse than Even money over a short series and if we

a) want to get on and b) want to do so on the exchange it looks like we might be able to do so against the public money and get a good price tomorrow, say

[Doobs]

Great research on the cricket Rich, but it is closer to 13/8 on Betfair.   Given the gap between the buy and sell, it could get bigger too?

ok, the first game is Wednesday morning/overnight Tuesday our time

For the reasons explained its a randomising format where almost any top 8 side against any other can't be much worse than Even money over a short series and if we

a) want to get on and b) want to do so on the exchange it looks like we might be able to do so against the public money and get a good price tomorrow, say

Sorry, think you quoted the wrong price.  It is 7/4 with Hills for the series.  Think we should get on now.

[TightEnd]

my mistake 11/8 is the first game

7/4 is the series

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/australia-v-england/t20-series/australia-england-t20s/series-winner

I liked 11/8!

[tikay]

After the 5-0 Ashes and 4-1 ODI Australian victories this winter the England Tour now concludes with three T20 internationals, beginning on Wednesday in Hobart.

The three game series takes place as follows:

29th January Hobart

31st January Melbourne

2nd February Sydney

It is a much changed Australian side from even the ODI series, with the majority of the side rested ahead of a Test Tour to South Africa. There is no Michael Clarke, David Warner, Shane Watson, Mitchell Johnson or Clint McKay and the side is generally inexperienced.

For England, the team is more familiar. Stuart Broad captains and the side has an edge in experience over Australia with seasoned T20 veterans like Luke Wright, Alex Hales, Michael Lumb and Jade Dernbach joining the more successful players from this disappointing tour such as Stokes, Buttler and Morgan in the side.

The Format, T20, is of course randomising from a betting perspective. Favourites are vulnerable over the shorter format where one stand out performance can change a game. In the light of this, while it is not a surprise after this Winter to see Australia strong favourites at 4/6 on the outright it is probably worth opposing with England at 11/8 because of both format and the relative experience of the two teams.

For example. Dernbach and and Broad are in the top ten of of top wicket-takers in T20 in the last 24 months. Australia have no bowler available in the top 25. In the batting, they have Aaron Finch and George Bailey but generally lack the depth and experience that England offer

To back all this up, of the eight Test playing nations Australia are ranked 8th in the T20 format currently and England 6th

If we look at the two possible sides

England

Hales
Lumb
Wright
Morgan
Stokes
Bopara
Buttler
Broad
Bresnan
Tredwell
Dernbach

(Root, Jordan, Rankin, Briggs in the squad)

that is actually experienced, in form in quite a few spots and balanced

For Australia, with South Africa Pending...

Finch
Cameron White
Bailey
Maxwell
Henriques
Christian
Wade
Faulkner
Coulter-Nile
Starc
Hazlewood

I like England's chances at the price. I'd take Finch, Bailey and Faulkner, maybe Coulter-Nile, man for man but not sure I would the others

In addition to finding England at 11/8 outright, we find them at 5/2 to win the three match series 2-1 too. In this format it would be a big surprise to see a 3-0 victory to one side or the other, and for those looking for something slightly punchier than 11/8, 5-2 on a 2-1 scoreline appeals.

Looking at player markets Aaron Finch remains the stand out Australian batting performer. He has nearly 370 runs in a career of nine International T20 matches and comes off an ODI series in which he scored two centuries. In a market without a lot of experienced performers 23/10 with paddy Power should be supported

The English batting market looks a more competitive heat and is headed by Hales, Lumb and Luke Wright. Of these, only Luke Wright has been in good form in the Big Bash T20 competition. They are though likely to be the top three in the order, an advantage in this market.

Whilst Luke Wright is tempting at 4/1, we can get 9/2 with William Hill on Eoin Morgan. Morgan was the top run scorer in the ODI series, with two fifties and a hundred in five matches and will be batting four or five with England relying on him to finish matches. He is the value price in this market

Recommendations (two from those mentioned)

England to win the T20 series 11/8 William Hill

Top England Batsman Eoin Morgan 9/2 William Hill

Thanks Rich.

You make no mention of suggested stakes.

For now, we have......

£40 @ 7/4, ENGLAND to win SERIES (Wm Hill)

The 9/2 Morgan has gone with Wm Hill, so we had a maxed £9 @ 9/2 with Paddy Power, & £11 @ 4/1 with Wm Hill.

So, £40 & £20 respectively. Was that what you had in mind?

2 BETS PLACED

[JoeBeevers]

my mistake 11/8 is the first game

7/4 is the series

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/australia-v-england/t20-series/australia-england-t20s/series-winner

I liked 11/8!

Rich based on what you have said (and I agree with you) and bearing in mind that Aus are 10/3 to win 3-0 surely the 10/1 England 3-0 should be taken with PoddyPawer?

[TightEnd]

my mistake 11/8 is the first game

7/4 is the series

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/australia-v-england/t20-series/australia-england-t20s/series-winner

I liked 11/8!

Rich based on what you have said (and I agree with you) and bearing in mind that Aus are 10/3 to win 3-0 surely the 10/1 England 3-0 should be taken with PoddyPawer?

Logically they aren't 10-1 if we think 7/4 is value

In practice I think the series is no worse than 50-50%

[Doobs]

my mistake 11/8 is the first game

7/4 is the series

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/australia-v-england/t20-series/australia-england-t20s/series-winner

I liked 11/8!

Rich based on what you have said (and I agree with you) and bearing in mind that Aus are 10/3 to win 3-0 surely the 10/1 England 3-0 should be taken with PoddyPawer?

Logically they aren't 10-1 if we think 7/4 is value

In practice I think the series is no worse than 50-50%

10/1 feels consistent with the prices.  11/8 first match, 6/5 2nd after a win, evens last match after 2 wins = around 10/1 if you are assuming just a tiny bit of margin in those prices.  100/30 Australia looks a bad price!

[TightEnd]

So, £40 & £20 respectively. Was that what you had in mind?

2 BETS PLACED

fine, thank you

[JoeBeevers]

my mistake 11/8 is the first game

7/4 is the series

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/australia-v-england/t20-series/australia-england-t20s/series-winner

I liked 11/8!

Rich based on what you have said (and I agree with you) and bearing in mind that Aus are 10/3 to win 3-0 surely the 10/1 England 3-0 should be taken with PoddyPawer?

Logically they aren't 10-1 if we think 7/4 is value

In practice I think the series is no worse than 50-50%

10/1 feels consistent with the prices.  11/8 first match, 6/5 2nd after a win, evens last match after 2 wins = around 10/1 if you are assuming just a tiny bit of margin in those prices.  100/30 Australia looks a bad price!

I agree.

We do also think that the prices are wrong, therefore the 10/1 is wrong. I like to punish the max when possible 

I'd like to be laying the Aus 3-0 as well if that were possible.

[JoeBeevers]

Doobs do you think Anthea Turner is big at 33/1 in The Jump?

[Doobs]

Doobs do you think Anthea Turner is big at 33/1 in The Jump?

Probably.  I did a bit of reading before, and isn't She an experienced skier?  Not backed her and not got time to do any research now.  She doesn't seem the type to be competitive tho.  Don't think it can be terrible.  I might bung a fiver on.  Cheers

[Doobs]

Doobs do you think Anthea Turner is big at 33/1 in The Jump?

Probably.  I did a bit of reading before, and isn't She an experienced skier?  Not backed her and not got time to do any research now.  She doesn't seem the type to be competitive tho.  Don't think it can be terrible.  I might bung a fiver on.  Cheers

Just back, just found out she has a ski chalet.  Telegraph man puts her 2nd in the girls.  Doesn't suggest snowplough turns to me.  Upped it to £20. 

Thread Banzai probably good.  Get on the phone Tikay before 8 33/1 in a few places.

[Omm]

Doobs do you think Anthea Turner is big at 33/1 in The Jump?

Probably.  I did a bit of reading before, and isn't She an experienced skier?  Not backed her and not got time to do any research now.  She doesn't seem the type to be competitive tho.  Don't think it can be terrible.  I might bung a fiver on.  Cheers

Just back, just found out she has a ski chalet.  Telegraph man puts her 2nd in the girls.  Doesn't suggest snowplough turns to me.  Upped it to £20. 

Thread Banzai probably good.  Get on the phone Tikay before 8 33/1 in a few places.

Anthea top woman 14-1 with Hills. Can't find details on how someone becomes the champion/winner if the boys and girls are doing different things each night. Anyone know?