Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Hi Horsey, I know I should know this but who is the second photo and what is the Horse Versus Guard one about?

Thanks.

Hi mate,

There was a 3 horse race at Southwell today featuring two horses that are chasing the record number of AW wins, La Estrella and Stand Guard
 (trained by one of the guys that was involved in the Curley coup last week). La Estrella was a late withdrawal which was a shame unless you had backed Stand Guard (who SP'd 1/80) at Evens before La Estrella was a non runner, with the rule 4 deduction you would have been on Stand Guard art around 1/2 or 4/9.......in a two horse race with the other runner about 40/1 on the off. Rule 4 chart is about 100 years out of date and it isn't very often it provides situations where it can be taken advantage of, how fortunate for some people that today provided such a situation. Would like to have won a pound less than John Butler in the last week......

[doubleup]

the thing is Phil the rule 4 deductions work if they are applied to returns rather than winnings e.g.

3 x 2-1 - one withdrawn 30p deduction = effective odds 1.1/1

4 x 3-1 - one withdrawn 25p deduction = effective odds 2-1

So I'm sure they were originally devised as deductions from returns, but somewhere along the line, poss due to big overrounds, it has just been applied to winnings.

[Kmac84]

Really like this bet on the Swansea corners.    Not only based on what Sandy has come up with but I expect a big performance from Swansea tonight if ML still has the dressing room, if they don't turn up for him it could be game over. 

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-denver-broncos/national-anthem-length

the under looks a cracking bet based on some research i found this morning

average length of last 10 years 2 minutes 9 secs (need this to be verified but source usually strong)

any reasons why this should not be a max for fred? (or what pp will lay)

[doubleup]

how many of the ten under 2min 22 - the average could be skewed by a 1 min job 

[horseplayer]

fair point

i have no idea but based on the fact pp have gone up first on there own i would not be amazed if they had made a major rick with no betfair or other firms to copy from

[tikay]

I had Jakally, Jaffacake and Doobs going ahead and saying Palace at 50/1 for the top ten was not a bad bet. I think considering the fact I have only been backed by one other person once for a bet (i think, Chompy to the rescue) that is a ringing endorsement

They play tonight as Tighty says and hopefully the value is gone by after the game.

£2, £5, £10 whatever you like. I just want to know I am appreciated.

You ARE appreciated Ant, you know that.

I need reminding if this is VALUE though, please.

If you were suggesting a bet on, say, Brighton, I'd not hesitate, I just worry about the "homer factor".

I need a decision by 5.55pm today please, as I'm working (again) tonight.

Views from all urgently required please. I don't mind sticking a fiver or a tenner on if we agree it is VALUE.

[Tonji]

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-olympics/alpine-skiing/olympic-alpine-skiing-mens-super-combined/winner

This looks to me to have been priced according to last seasons form.

This year Kostelic has been way off, particularly in slalom, just watched him in Schladming & he's struggling with speed & technique & is 2 seconds off the pace in the first run.

In the two World Cup Super Combined so far this season its a win & second apiece for Ligety & Pinturault.

Ligety's focus in Sochi is primarily Giant Slalom.

Pinturault carries good form & high hopes for France. 6/1 looks more than decent. 5/1 ok also. Allez!

 

[tikay]

Swansea -4 corners 29/20 BV

Swansea at home average 7.3 whilst Fulham concede 8 per game away. Should get 9-11

Fulham away get 3 whilst Swansea concede 3.9 Should get 3-4.

Sandy

Thank you Sandy.

We have £20 @ 29/20, BetVictor.


Swansea City v FulhamSwansea City (-4) (Corners Handicap (-4))Odds: 29/20 Stake: 20.00Possible Return:  49.00

BET PLACED

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-olympics/alpine-skiing/olympic-alpine-skiing-mens-super-combined/winner

This looks to me to have been priced according to last seasons form.

This year Kostelic has been way off, particularly in slalom, just watched him in Schladming & he's struggling with speed & technique & is 2 seconds off the pace in the first run.

In the two World Cup Super Combined so far this season its a win & second apiece for Ligety & Pinturault.

Ligety's focus in Sochi is primarily Giant Slalom.

Pinturault carries good form & high hopes for France. 6/1 looks more than decent. 5/1 ok also. Allez!

 

Thanks tonji.

We've had £20 @ 11/2 with Sporting Bet.


Bet Type: Single
Alpine Skiing - Sochi 2014 - Super Combined - Men Race - Outright WinnerAlexis Pinturault11/2

 

Possible Payout 130.00 GBP

1 bet @
20.00 GBP


Total Cost: 20.00 GBP
Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 130.00 GBP

BET PLACED

[doubleup]

http://sports.bodog.eu/sports-betting/football-player-props.jsp#1655771

bodog are a lot shorter unders 2.25 rather than 2.22 tho

talking about the nat anthem prop

[tikay]

Hi Horsey, I know I should know this but who is the second photo and what is the Horse Versus Guard one about?

Thanks.

Hi mate,

There was a 3 horse race at Southwell today featuring two horses that are chasing the record number of AW wins, La Estrella and Stand Guard
 (trained by one of the guys that was involved in the Curley coup last week). La Estrella was a late withdrawal which was a shame unless you had backed Stand Guard (who SP'd 1/80) at Evens before La Estrella was a non runner, with the rule 4 deduction you would have been on Stand Guard art around 1/2 or 4/9.......in a two horse race with the other runner about 40/1 on the off. Rule 4 chart is about 100 years out of date and it isn't very often it provides situations where it can be taken advantage of, how fortunate for some people that today provided such a situation. Would like to have won a pound less than John Butler in the last week......

Wow, how did you know that, Phil?

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-denver-broncos/national-anthem-length

the under looks a cracking bet based on some research i found this morning

average length of last 10 years 2 minutes 9 secs (need this to be verified but source usually strong)

any reasons why this should not be a max for fred? (or what pp will lay)

We have had a MAXED £6.58 @ 5/6 for roffles with PP

BET PLACED

[tikay]

I had Jakally, Jaffacake and Doobs going ahead and saying Palace at 50/1 for the top ten was not a bad bet. I think considering the fact I have only been backed by one other person once for a bet (i think, Chompy to the rescue) that is a ringing endorsement

They play tonight as Tighty says and hopefully the value is gone by after the game.

£2, £5, £10 whatever you like. I just want to know I am appreciated.

You ARE appreciated Ant, you know that.
 I'll be offline in 10 mionutes, sorry.
I need reminding if this is VALUE though, please.

If you were suggesting a bet on, say, Brighton, I'd not hesitate, I just worry about the "homer factor".

I need a decision by 5.55pm today please, as I'm working (again) tonight.

Views from all urgently required please. I don't mind sticking a fiver or a tenner on if we agree it is VALUE.

BUMPED

Anyone assist me, please? I need to log off in the next 10 minutes.

[Kmac84]

I had Jakally, Jaffacake and Doobs going ahead and saying Palace at 50/1 for the top ten was not a bad bet. I think considering the fact I have only been backed by one other person once for a bet (i think, Chompy to the rescue) that is a ringing endorsement

They play tonight as Tighty says and hopefully the value is gone by after the game.

£2, £5, £10 whatever you like. I just want to know I am appreciated.

You ARE appreciated Ant, you know that.
 I'll be offline in 10 mionutes, sorry.
I need reminding if this is VALUE though, please.

If you were suggesting a bet on, say, Brighton, I'd not hesitate, I just worry about the "homer factor".

I need a decision by 5.55pm today please, as I'm working (again) tonight.

Views from all urgently required please. I don't mind sticking a fiver or a tenner on if we agree it is VALUE.

BUMPED

Anyone assist me, please? I need to log off in the next 10 minutes.

I can't be sure that its value but it can't be a bad punt at 50/1 plus it's a nice sweat.  I think Freds bed on Palace to finish bottom is dead so this could be a nice bet to cheer on in the absence of that previous bet.  Worth a £5 for fun/sweat/antaments