Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Betfred go 9/2 Rory McIlroy for the Dubai Golf

This is a good price. Currently 4.6 on Betfair.

Get the blister plasters ready.

A sonour Recommend?

Gotta do this!

It is listed under "PRICE BOOSTS" on Betfred.

I immediately had £40, then cast my mind back to Tiger's woeful efforts last weekend.....

Is this intended purely a Trading Spot?

BET PLACED

Tikay,

I think £40 is a little too much for Fred with only small edge. Could we lay £30 back please. The lay on Betfair is currently 4.9.
You need to press the pink box to lay. Then enter £30 as the stake. The liability £117.

I think I love you, someone who understands how dibby I am with Betfair, & how I like to be a bit Nitty.

Even told me the colour of the button.

How's this look?


Placed (matched)

Lay (Bet Against)
 
Backer's odds
 
Backer's stake
 
Your liability
 




Dubai Desert Classic 2014



Rory McIlroy Winner

4.9

£30.00


£117.00




Ref: 33707766956M Matched: 12:46 29-Jan-14


BET (LAY) PLACED

Lovely.

Is 4.9 too short?  If so, we should be laying a lot more.  

Why didn't we just lay the 4.6 which was the price when BetFred put up the offer?

Whilst we have always been able to arb offers, the reason we don't is because long run we split our profits for the offers 3 way between us, Betfair backers and Betfair themselves.   If the edge in the original bet was small, why are we sharing it?

At least that is what I think Neil would have said if he was here

Because we only want £10 on. I could have just recommended £10 at 9/2 and left it at that.

My preference would have been to back £200 at 9/2 at Betfair. Then lay £190 back. Now if McIlroy wins we win £900 minus £741 = £159.
If McIlroy doesn't win we lose £200 minus £190 plus £9.50 Betfair commission = £19.50.

So we have £19.50 to win £159 which is over 8/1.

My philosophy is work out how much you want to bet, but bet the maximum you can and lay the difference.

I'll probably bet over £5,000 with Betfred on this today but I don't want to risk £5,000 however good value it is. I'll probably only actually bet £200 but I'm a lot better off betting £5,000 and laying £4,800 back than just betting £200.
I hope that makes sense.

We didn't just want a tenner on, we wanted the max we could.  The bank can take the variance on a £40 7/2 chance, and a bit more still. 

I understand why you would want to reduce exposure to a £5k bet, but don't see how that is relevant when these bets are well within the risk the betting fund can take.

Good luck getting £5k on, they limited me to £20, so only a couple of hundred shops to go.  Poor old Pete.

[sonour]

Betfred go 9/2 Rory McIlroy for the Dubai Golf

This is a good price. Currently 4.6 on Betfair.

Get the blister plasters ready.

A sonour Recommend?

Gotta do this!

It is listed under "PRICE BOOSTS" on Betfred.

I immediately had £40, then cast my mind back to Tiger's woeful efforts last weekend.....

Is this intended purely a Trading Spot?

BET PLACED

Tikay,

I think £40 is a little too much for Fred with only small edge. Could we lay £30 back please. The lay on Betfair is currently 4.9.
You need to press the pink box to lay. Then enter £30 as the stake. The liability £117.

I think I love you, someone who understands how dibby I am with Betfair, & how I like to be a bit Nitty.

Even told me the colour of the button.

How's this look?


Placed (matched)

Lay (Bet Against)
 
Backer's odds
 
Backer's stake
 
Your liability
 




Dubai Desert Classic 2014



Rory McIlroy Winner

4.9

£30.00


£117.00




Ref: 33707766956M Matched: 12:46 29-Jan-14


BET (LAY) PLACED

Lovely.

Is 4.9 too short?  If so, we should be laying a lot more.  

Why didn't we just lay the 4.6 which was the price when BetFred put up the offer?

Whilst we have always been able to arb offers, the reason we don't is because long run we split our profits for the offers 3 way between us, Betfair backers and Betfair themselves.   If the edge in the original bet was small, why are we sharing it?

At least that is what I think Neil would have said if he was here

Because we only want £10 on. I could have just recommended £10 at 9/2 and left it at that.

My preference would have been to back £200 at 9/2 at Betfair. Then lay £190 back. Now if McIlroy wins we win £900 minus £741 = £159.
If McIlroy doesn't win we lose £200 minus £190 plus £9.50 Betfair commission = £19.50.

So we have £19.50 to win £159 which is over 8/1.

My philosophy is work out how much you want to bet, but bet the maximum you can and lay the difference.

I'll probably bet over £5,000 with Betfred on this today but I don't want to risk £5,000 however good value it is. I'll probably only actually bet £200 but I'm a lot better off betting £5,000 and laying £4,800 back than just betting £200.
I hope that makes sense.

We didn't just want a tenner on, we wanted the max we could.  The bank can take the variance on a £40 7/2 chance, and a bit more still. 

I understand why you would want to reduce exposure to a £5k bet, but don't see how that is relevant when these bets are well within the risk the betting fund can take.

Good luck getting £5k on, they limited me to £20, so only a couple of hundred shops to go.  Poor old Pete.

£200 per shop

[sonour]

Betfred go 9/2 Rory McIlroy for the Dubai Golf

This is a good price. Currently 4.6 on Betfair.

Get the blister plasters ready.

A sonour Recommend?

Gotta do this!

It is listed under "PRICE BOOSTS" on Betfred.

I immediately had £40, then cast my mind back to Tiger's woeful efforts last weekend.....

Is this intended purely a Trading Spot?

BET PLACED

Tikay,

I think £40 is a little too much for Fred with only small edge. Could we lay £30 back please. The lay on Betfair is currently 4.9.
You need to press the pink box to lay. Then enter £30 as the stake. The liability £117.

I think I love you, someone who understands how dibby I am with Betfair, & how I like to be a bit Nitty.

Even told me the colour of the button.

How's this look?


Placed (matched)

Lay (Bet Against)
 
Backer's odds
 
Backer's stake
 
Your liability
 




Dubai Desert Classic 2014



Rory McIlroy Winner

4.9

£30.00


£117.00




Ref: 33707766956M Matched: 12:46 29-Jan-14


BET (LAY) PLACED

Lovely.

Is 4.9 too short?  If so, we should be laying a lot more.  

Why didn't we just lay the 4.6 which was the price when BetFred put up the offer?

Whilst we have always been able to arb offers, the reason we don't is because long run we split our profits for the offers 3 way between us, Betfair backers and Betfair themselves.   If the edge in the original bet was small, why are we sharing it?

At least that is what I think Neil would have said if he was here

Because we only want £10 on. I could have just recommended £10 at 9/2 and left it at that.

My preference would have been to back £200 at 9/2 at Betfair. Then lay £190 back. Now if McIlroy wins we win £900 minus £741 = £159.
If McIlroy doesn't win we lose £200 minus £190 plus £9.50 Betfair commission = £19.50.

So we have £19.50 to win £159 which is over 8/1.

My philosophy is work out how much you want to bet, but bet the maximum you can and lay the difference.

I'll probably bet over £5,000 with Betfred on this today but I don't want to risk £5,000 however good value it is. I'll probably only actually bet £200 but I'm a lot better off betting £5,000 and laying £4,800 back than just betting £200.
I hope that makes sense.

We didn't just want a tenner on, we wanted the max we could.  The bank can take the variance on a £40 7/2 chance, and a bit more still. 

I understand why you would want to reduce exposure to a £5k bet, but don't see how that is relevant when these bets are well within the risk the betting fund can take.

Good luck getting £5k on, they limited me to £20, so only a couple of hundred shops to go.  Poor old Pete.

If we wanted £40 on then I would recommend we put £200 on and lay £160 back.

[Doobs]

Betfred go 9/2 Rory McIlroy for the Dubai Golf

This is a good price. Currently 4.6 on Betfair.

Get the blister plasters ready.

A sonour Recommend?

Gotta do this!

It is listed under "PRICE BOOSTS" on Betfred.

I immediately had £40, then cast my mind back to Tiger's woeful efforts last weekend.....

Is this intended purely a Trading Spot?

BET PLACED

Tikay,

I think £40 is a little too much for Fred with only small edge. Could we lay £30 back please. The lay on Betfair is currently 4.9.
You need to press the pink box to lay. Then enter £30 as the stake. The liability £117.

I think I love you, someone who understands how dibby I am with Betfair, & how I like to be a bit Nitty.

Even told me the colour of the button.

How's this look?


Placed (matched)

Lay (Bet Against)
 
Backer's odds
 
Backer's stake
 
Your liability
 




Dubai Desert Classic 2014



Rory McIlroy Winner

4.9

£30.00


£117.00




Ref: 33707766956M Matched: 12:46 29-Jan-14


BET (LAY) PLACED

Lovely.

Is 4.9 too short?  If so, we should be laying a lot more.  

Why didn't we just lay the 4.6 which was the price when BetFred put up the offer?

Whilst we have always been able to arb offers, the reason we don't is because long run we split our profits for the offers 3 way between us, Betfair backers and Betfair themselves.   If the edge in the original bet was small, why are we sharing it?

At least that is what I think Neil would have said if he was here

Because we only want £10 on. I could have just recommended £10 at 9/2 and left it at that.

My preference would have been to back £200 at 9/2 at Betfair. Then lay £190 back. Now if McIlroy wins we win £900 minus £741 = £159.
If McIlroy doesn't win we lose £200 minus £190 plus £9.50 Betfair commission = £19.50.

So we have £19.50 to win £159 which is over 8/1.

My philosophy is work out how much you want to bet, but bet the maximum you can and lay the difference.

I'll probably bet over £5,000 with Betfred on this today but I don't want to risk £5,000 however good value it is. I'll probably only actually bet £200 but I'm a lot better off betting £5,000 and laying £4,800 back than just betting £200.
I hope that makes sense.

We didn't just want a tenner on, we wanted the max we could.  The bank can take the variance on a £40 7/2 chance, and a bit more still. 

I understand why you would want to reduce exposure to a £5k bet, but don't see how that is relevant when these bets are well within the risk the betting fund can take.

Good luck getting £5k on, they limited me to £20, so only a couple of hundred shops to go.  Poor old Pete.

£200 per shop

You must make better cakes than me

[sonour]

Doobs,

We're you limited to £20 in a shop ? It clearly says maximum £200 on the screens behind the desk in the shops without reference to trader.

[sonour]

My main reason for putting this up was as a gentle introduction to trading for Tikay. Chompy suggested a large trade recently and I know Tikay was uncomfortable with it and worried about misclicking so I thought we would start small.

[Doobs]

Doobs,

We're you limited to £20 in a shop ? It clearly says maximum £200 on the screens behind the desk in the shops without reference to trader.

Was online, so guess that account is on 10% now.

Sort Tikay out with the extra £160, really sue we can stand more than a tenner.

[OverTheBorder]

I meant to put this up Saturday but missed it. Game was then abandoned after 10 minutes so it may be fate.

Morton are bottom of Scottish championship but I think following appointment of Kenny Shiels and some good signings (o'connor at 50% fit is way above this level) they are heavily underestimated. 13/5 tonight at home against an average QOS side seems too big! They beat Livingston last time out away and I would be on them till the price corrects as players bed in they will get better and better. My friend was at the game and they had started fairly brightly.

Recommend £10 or £20 win or what 365 give you 23/10 bet victor next best

(Game is tonight)

[sonour]

Doobs,

We're you limited to £20 in a shop ? It clearly says maximum £200 on the screens behind the desk in the shops without reference to trader.

Was online, so guess that account is on 10% now.

Sort Tikay out with the extra £160, really sue we can stand more than a tenner.

Great, we agree on that !

The last time Chompy asked for, and I endorsed, a big bet and lay Tikay was plainly very uncomfortable with it.
However I'll try again.
How about I ask him to back another £160 and lay back £130 ? Or do you want to be in for more than £40 ?

[tikay]

Doobs,

We're you limited to £20 in a shop ? It clearly says maximum £200 on the screens behind the desk in the shops without reference to trader.

Was online, so guess that account is on 10% now.

Sort Tikay out with the extra £160, really sue we can stand more than a tenner.

Great, we agree on that !

The last time Chompy asked for, and I endorsed, a big bet and lay Tikay was plainly very uncomfortable with it.
However I'll try again.
How about I ask him to back another £160 and lay back £130 ? Or do you want to be in for more than £40 ?

Before we do.......I first need to know how much BetFred (Online) will permit me at 9/2, as I'm not really into walking round shops, to be honest, I just don't have time, & my cakes are shite. 

I do appreciate your thinking here, bye the bye. Most helpful. I am a bit uncomfy (hitherto) with bigger Trading on Betfair, as I'm just so sort of time to get my head round these things & not mess it up. It's not the bet size that troubles me so much, as the method.

[Doobs]

Doobs,

We're you limited to £20 in a shop ? It clearly says maximum £200 on the screens behind the desk in the shops without reference to trader.

Was online, so guess that account is on 10% now.

Sort Tikay out with the extra £160, really sue we can stand more than a tenner.

Great, we agree on that !

The last time Chompy asked for, and I endorsed, a big bet and lay Tikay was plainly very uncomfortable with it.
However I'll try again.
How about I ask him to back another £160 and lay back £130 ? Or do you want to be in for more than £40 ?

Before we do.......I first need to know how much BetFred (Online) will permit me at 9/2, as I'm not really into walking round shops, to be honest, I just don't have time, & my cakes are shite. 

I do appreciate your thinking here, bye the bye. Most helpful. I am a bit uncomfy (hitherto) with bigger Trading on Betfair, as I'm just so sort of time to get my head round these things & not mess it up. It's not the bet size that troubles me so much, as the method.

The price has gone, so think you are too late. 

[sonour]

Doobs,

We're you limited to £20 in a shop ? It clearly says maximum £200 on the screens behind the desk in the shops without reference to trader.

Was online, so guess that account is on 10% now.

Sort Tikay out with the extra £160, really sue we can stand more than a tenner.

Great, we agree on that !

The last time Chompy asked for, and I endorsed, a big bet and lay Tikay was plainly very uncomfortable with it.
However I'll try again.
How about I ask him to back another £160 and lay back £130 ? Or do you want to be in for more than £40 ?

Before we do.......I first need to know how much BetFred (Online) will permit me at 9/2, as I'm not really into walking round shops, to be honest, I just don't have time, & my cakes are shite. 

I do appreciate your thinking here, bye the bye. Most helpful. I am a bit uncomfy (hitherto) with bigger Trading on Betfair, as I'm just so sort of time to get my head round these things & not mess it up. It's not the bet size that troubles me so much, as the method.

The price has gone, so think you are too late. 

Ok, Tikay would you like £30 of mine at 9/2 ?

[Doobs]

Premiership Handicap Update.

I have just updated my spreadsheet which gives projected finishing positions for the BetVictor handicap.

Currently we have
Newcastle 5th (projected 94 on handicap)
Palace 6th (projected 89)
Hull 9th (projected 87)
Cardiff 15th (projected 77)

Arsenal are still projected to win this on 98 (Everton, Liverpool and Spurs are between them and Newcastle).

Palace have absolutely charged up that table from about 13th from the bet went on.  They are currently 20/1 from 100/1 when the bet was placed.   Think we get 25/1 top 3.  The Palace and Newcastle bets are definitely live, though Hull need to start getting points again soon.   

[TightEnd]

The Superbowl again

I think it is accepted that the value is in Prop Bets/Sub markets, and we might be able to build a portfolio of such bets

I think we accept this because we are already short on length of National Anthem

I couldn't tell with huge confidence who will win the game, particularly, and the spread is efficiently priced.


I have had a look through the Props

One struck me as interesting

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-denver-broncos/total-field-goals

Seattle’s Steven Hauschka made 33 field goals in 16 regular-season games and then hit three in each of the Seahawks’ first two postseason games.

Denver’s Matt Prater hit only 25 field goals during the regular season, Manning was too busy passing for 55 touchdowns, but his production has increased in the playoffs, with five made out of six attempts in two games, with particularly the San Diego defense slowing Manning down.

Between them then, Prater and Hauschka made eleven field goals from twelve attempts in four combined games this postseason.

We might argue that against Seattle’s defense, the incidence of Denver field goals will rise in this game compared to normal. We know that Seattle's offensive strength is the running game with Marshawn Lynch, and that Wilson "game manages" in the absence of leading wide receivers. They can play this style because the defense is so good and they are rarely playing from too many points behind, so field goals keep them in the game.

Touchdowns will likely be tough to come by in the red zone and the Over 3.5 quote available at 11/10 with Spoilsports is a price to look at. We don't have to pay bookie's vig at 11/10


For this bet to land we then need 4 field goals, 2 each for example.

It's the first cold weather superbowl, so comparisions are questionable but the Superbowl records for Field Goals are on the link

http://www.nfl.com/superbowl/records/superbowls/player/fieldgoals

Across 47 superbowls there are 11 individual incidences of a single kicker attempting 4 or more Field goals, many of these in eras where field goals success was 75-80% and not what it is nowadays

Prater this year 96.2%, 25/26
Hauschka this year 94.3%, 33/35

Main risk: if its very windy, but cold on its own is not a deterrent to field goal percentages.

[Ant040689]

For the Palace 50/1 top 10 bet.

Pulis has a championship looking team aside from Chamakh and Puncheon playing like a mid table Prem outfit. Hugely defensive base and then sprout with our wingers as was seen yesterday with Bolasie setting up the chance to feed our other winger Puncheon to score.

I don’t think Palace should fear anyone at home because the tactics that Pulis employs often levels the opposition, frustrating them, and then all we need is 1 goal to get the draw or win potentially. Man City/Chelsea/Liverpool come to Selhurst and even with these Pulis could find a way to get a positive result. Probably think I am mad, but I think he has something great going here.

Palace only had one real chance and that was Puncheon in the 15th minute or so, then we sat back even more and aside from a Jake Livermore chance that was real heart in mouth time, there was no real gilt-edged chance for Hull. I thought Long dived for the penalty appeal too. Jelavic was wasteful too.

The Palace top 10 is down to 28/1 now, and for it to look even better we have to look for a draw in the Villa vs. West Brom and Sunderland vs. Stoke games.

It is frightening Pulis is getting these results with these players and if our team can be improved by signings that are yet to materialise, it could mean the start of Palace reeling away from the relegation scrap altogether making this bet look even better. Let’s not forget about Glenn Murray either, he may surprise a few when he is back at the start of March (if he gets selected for the 25 man squad).