Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Why do we love Yankees Tal?

Fred had a multiple over the weekend.

I don't think we've had an AL East bet, yet, for this coming season...(I do follow the Yankees, or at least I used to, when I was into baseball at uni. You have to say that quietly these days. You get less grief admitting to being a spurs fan!)

We did?

Who authorised that?

[Tal]

Why do we love Yankees Tal?

Fred had a multiple over the weekend.

I don't think we've had an AL East bet, yet, for this coming season...(I do follow the Yankees, or at least I used to, when I was into baseball at uni. You have to say that quietly these days. You get less grief admitting to being a spurs fan!)

We did?

Who authorised that?

Yes, yes, yes, I do see that there is a real dilemma here. In that, while it has been government policy to regard policy as a responsibility of Ministers and administration as a responsibility of Officials, the questions of administrative policy can cause confusion between the policy of administration and the administration of policy, especially when responsibility for the administration of the policy of administration conflicts, or overlaps with, responsibility for the policy of the administration of policy.

[Rubbish2407]

Why do we love Yankees Tal?

Fred had a multiple over the weekend.

I don't think we've had an AL East bet, yet, for this coming season...(I do follow the Yankees, or at least I used to, when I was into baseball at uni. You have to say that quietly these days. You get less grief admitting to being a spurs fan!)

Okay, I thought for a second we were on the Yankees?

[TightEnd]

I have some thoughts on the new MLB season, big prices, value, long term stuff

Would rather hear from redarmi and his Rays of light first though. Save me doing the write ups please!

[TightEnd]

oh and Hull at greater than Even money is (I hope) a crazy price. Still a team that should beat Brighton

My old hero Matt Fryatt a natural goalscorer at Championship level, at 13/2 e/w is my fancy.

[Tal]

I have some thoughts on the new MLB season, big prices, value, long term stuff

Would rather hear from redarmi and his Rays of light first though. Save me doing the write ups please!

Yankees have bought a new team, haven't they? Goodness only knows what that means for them.

[BigAdz]

Release the flies. Tighty fancies the one with the bug eyes!

[The Camel]

1-0 Hull

[The Camel]

1-0 Charlton

[doubleup]

Why do we love Yankees Tal?

Fred had a multiple over the weekend.

I don't think we've had an AL East bet, yet, for this coming season...(I do follow the Yankees, or at least I used to, when I was into baseball at uni. You have to say that quietly these days. You get less grief admitting to being a spurs fan!)

We did?

Who authorised that?

[Waz1892]

Hi Waz, sorry mate, wasn't having a go and I'd hate to stop you posting. Definitely it's good to think what price do I make it and what price do I therefore make the others? It maybe that in your opinion the price on Chelsea is too big BECAUSE the City price is too short. If you are thinking like that then you are ahead of 90% of punters...sadly you need to be above 95% to be a long-term winner.

 I certainly wouldn't stop you having a bet on this market if you have that view. By shopping around the best prices with bookies and Betfair you are playing in a market with almost zero advantage to either bookies or punters. It would be almost impossible for the "correct" price of Chelsea to be too far away from the current market though. By the correct price I mean the one where if we could run this situation 10,000 times you could not win or lose by betting Chelsea. Maybe you might say that the correct price is 11/8 a fractional difference from the current price. You'll do well to argue that it should be 5/4 though and so even if you are right it gives such a tiny edge.

 The premier outright market is a good way to practise thinking about pricing up events as it varies only a small amount after each game, there are not too many variables and it is almost never wrong.

Neil,  no need for apologies at all. I value the post, its all about learning.

Ive learnt more from this thread from folk such as your goodself, than i care to think.
We live n learn after all, and i guess at the heart of it, i dont take my betting punts as seriously as i perhaps should do.

The fact I'm conscious of that now, can only be a good thing!

[The Camel]

My first maximum bet landed on TFT!

Now all I need to know is confirmation that our hero put the bet on!

[BigAdz]

My first maximum bet landed on TFT!

Now all I need to know is confirmation that our hero put the bet on!

Nice one Keith. Typically forgot to open a Jetway acct and missed price, but I did follow your other one tonite!

[sonour]

Value Bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/winner

Eng are 4/9 to beat Wales at Twick, Wales 2/1

France should win in Scotland

Ireland should win in Italy


I think, like the Eng-Ire game, Eng/Wales is 50-50.

If we postulate that Wales win, and the other results go as expected

With one game to go it will be

Wales 3-1
France 3-1
Ireland 3-1

Last game Wales host Scotland, France host Ireland

Wales will be 4-1
France will be 8/13 Ire 11/8 for the final game - as Twickenham odds for the Ireland game


So Wales and one of France/Ireland will be 4-1

Six Nations tiebreakers

1 Points difference
2 no of tries scored
3 shared

Currently

Ireland +42
Wales +6
France +1

Wales beat Eng, then Scotland the PD is up
France beat Scotland, then Ireland the GD is up

but, they go away to Scotland, Wales host Scotland

Ireland would be 3-2, Eng would be 3-2

So Wales for the SixN is a treble

2/1(England match)*1/5(Scotland match)*8/13(France to beat Ireland)= 4.82/1

Compared to 5.82, we can get 6.4 on bf

If we plug in a lower price than 2-1 Wales at Twickenham, my view, then we have more value

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/rugby-union/market?id=1.109590806&mpch=ads&rfr=63


This might even be a split bet....by laying England, who can beat Wales and Italy and still not win the SixN on PD..for example if Ireland win twice, or France win twice and overtake the points difference

Ireland host Italy, England go to Italy...and Ireland have 21 points advantage over England currently


Would like to suggest a split bet

Six Nations winner

Lay England liability £40 at 2.66 (lay of £25)

Back Wales £40 at 6.4

Betfair

Looks good to me. Thank you Tighty.

[horseplayer]

Click to see full-size image.