Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

20 guests on fred at 4am?? Really?  Don't think i have ever seen 20 guests during the peak times in the day??  Is this the time the bookies £25k a year 'lol traders' sign in to check up on the action?  Come and join and sign up and tell us what you know.  We give plenty back to you FOC and you won't even lay us a bet you spineless weasels.

Where did 16 of the 20 guests go 5 mins after i posted this?  Surely your £25k a year night shift trading roles were feet up at 345am once the lakers game had started and you could carry on reading and catching up on fred??  Nothing else to do once the lakers game had started surely? 

You've been a breath of fresh air Mr Arrboy, keep it coming please.

I'm going to reply to the points in date order, but this one is a tap-in, so I'll answer it first.

The peculiar number of Guests on Fred @ 4am is not Traders, Bookies, or anything else remotely worrying - it is simply how search engine "spiders" work. They are, I suppose, what we call "bots". It happens several times per day, actually. Nothing to worry about. blonde has very good SEO, as it happens, which, for the Business, is a great thing. 

[tikay]

Been mulling this post over for a little while.  It strikes me that Fred is getting to the tipping point now where the level of restrictions to Tikays accounts means that Fred is doing more harm than good.  Because there are more mistakes on these novelty and minor markets a lot of the focus goes on mispricing by odds compilers on minor markets and we are tipping our hands by effectively taking 27p in EV or whatever.  That is way too cheap a price for these firms to be paying to sharpen up their books and whilst some of the analysis and time that goes into posts on here is great I am not really sure anyone is profiting in any great way from it anymore.  I don't know what the solution is but it just seems counterproductive to me (although not to blonde on the whole I suppose given the hits it gets).

Grest Post, thanks Stu, but I don't know the answers.

I've put it out there several times now - someone else (with clean accounts) take my current Fred role, but there has not been a single taker, in fact barely a reply, Tighty excepted.

The Account situation wont get any better, either. What's done, as to damaging accounts, is done, it can't be changed now.

Sure, we can try to mitigate it going forward.

I can sense, & understand, why Fred is less interesting & attractive to some of the Elders, (such as you) these days, ditto camel, Grumps, Bobby, Dubs, chompy, Lisa, Doobs, & several others, plus we have Arrboy now of course. You are all Pro Punters, the rest of us are recreational fun punters.

But....part of the whole attraction - to many of us, me included, the BEST part of Fred, is the little sermons & lessons you guys used to give us. They, genuinely, were THE best part of Fred in my opinion. I hope you Elders can continue with them from time to time, they are key to Fred. Don't underestimate how much the bulk of us love all those sermons, why we should or should not do this that or the other. They are pure gold.

You also referred, knowingly, to the "blonde hits". That is part of the recipe, it's vital to blonde, it really is.

Lets not forget that the bulk of us who Post here are small-ball fun punters, £10 or £20 is plenty to us, we can get our buzz from a tenner bet @ 2/1, we really can. The Elders, of course, not so much, they do scores of bets per day.

It's quite tough to be all things to all men.

[tikay]

Haven't had time to do any real research on this, but I am a keen follower of Cruft's, having been twice (In before the jokes). However, the best in show coming from the UTILITY group is 2/1 Ladbrokes and Odds on with everyone else. Assuming arb, but thought I'd pop it up.

Lol, I would SO like to do this. Is it still available?

First, ladies frocks, now Crufts. Adz will be in Fred Heaven.

[tikay]

Brown hair settled as a winner

What a GREAT, & fun bet, that was.

Well done nirvana, great foresight by you.

[Eso Kral]

Thanks for the mention Arboy!!!

[tikay]

Paddy Power going 4/1 on HF. Text the stake "ENCHANCED HURRICANE FLY" to 51465. Bobs Worth and Sire De Grugy too! Both enhanced to 3/1.

Only via text

£50 max per horse

There has been some criticism from time to time of us doing all these Offers, but for now, I hope you keep putting them up. After all, nobody HAS to bet them, we can all make our own minds up.

Remember, also, that this is the peak time of the year for Offers - Cheltenham means there are Offers galore. After Chelters, they slow to a trickle, & become much easier to manage & assess. For now, yes, there are tons of them, a bewildering array, but that's not a bad thing imo.

[tikay]

Thanks for the mention Arboy!!!

Spineless weasels ftw......

[tikay]

“We have to get back to competitiveness as soon as possible and we will get there much faster than people imagine, ” declared McLaren boss Ron Dennis this morning, breaking his silence for the first time since seizing back control of the company from Martin Whitmarsh.

“I believe we will win races this year, how many I don’t know and when I don’t know. Company was unfit and I said to them that if they match my commitment we will win. If they don’t match that they won’t be with the company.”

Dennis was on feisty form at press gathering at the McLaren Technical Centre in Woking, England, laying out his vision for the company and for the F1 team’s return to competitiveness after its worst season since 1980.

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2014/03/ron-dennis-breaks-his-silence-we-will-win-again-soon/

Tighty,

Remind us where we are with Mercedes please.

More & more I've become convinced that Mercedes will rule the roost this year. What ways can, or should, we exploit this?

We have until the Australian GP (Sunday week) to finalise our Season positions. I think we might need to consider loading up a bit more.

[tikay]

I thoroughly recommend PP Messenger

Very quick to place bets, no searching for markets.

Response within a few seconds

Plenty of enhancements not available on online, app or in shop

Lisa, or anyone, can you remind me how PP Messenger works, please?

I don't have it, & don't really understand how it works (I'm fine with Teletext), but I guess I need to get on board

[tikay]

It was mentioned the other day by someone that they were concerned that TFT had reach a point that was quite difficult because of the restrictions on your accounts. I think we should see if we can fight to keep the thread going. I only mention this myself because it seems that the firms that have most of the offers on are the ones you are restricted with, hopefully the other firms will get in on the act soon and start doing specials that you can jump all over. In the mean time next week is a very important week - make or break in terms of volume of bets and amounts (maybe not so much break but you get my point- it's a big week)

Could a be so bold as to suggest a couple of ideas in preparation for next week and possibly to help on going.

1) Do a bit of Housekeeping on your accounts, Maybe contact the restricted accounts and see if something can be done about it, after all they are bookies and next week is quite a big week for them. Very Liquid markets that they may be happy to lift the restrictions on your accounts for or at least release the noose a little bit.

2) Ensure you have an account with everybody that is on oddschecker. Ie 888, Winner, Spreadex (they do fixed odds) etc This obviously increases the opportunities are getting near to best price. As well as maybe giving you some juicy Free bets to play with.

3) Have accounts that are not on Oddschecker, Pinnicle and Jennings spring to mind. That way If your struggling to get a bet on it gives you even more options to check to get near to best price.

4) Definitely for next week a lot of people are going to be around, If a bet gets put up that is with an account we all know is restricted maybe someone can offer to put it on for you. They then become the bookie on the spready. ( You could probably insert a line that says Paid and that way you know if you owe them money and vice versa). If it works next week it could work ongoing.

5) Would it be an idea of having a list of the bookies ( maybe on the first page or on the spready) and what the account status it. Closed, restricted, Open etc etc just so everybody knows.

I know that the above comes with a bit of work attached but they are only suggestions which may or may not be needed, Just putting a few ideas out there that hopefully can add to the longevity of the thread and also profitability. Not intented to derail the thread or create a lengthy debate just before a busy time of the year. Even if you take a morsal of good advice from it, it will have been worth the 10mins it took to write.

Top stuff Ommy, thank you.

1, 2 & 3 are all a function of time right now, but I'll try. Where is that time best spent? Opening new Accounts, or debating where Fred goes from here though? Both really!

4 - I'm extremely touched, & grateful, that several lads already do this for me. It is all done on trust, the money is settled retrospectively, & I can name 6 or 7 regulars who offer this facility to me frequently. It is often done Privately, via PM, of course, so regulars may not always be aware that Fred has got the bet on via a third party. I don't intend to make their names known on the open Forum, that'd be wrong, but it does already happen quite a lot.

5) Yes, I'll try & do that.

[TightEnd]

“We have to get back to competitiveness as soon as possible and we will get there much faster than people imagine, ” declared McLaren boss Ron Dennis this morning, breaking his silence for the first time since seizing back control of the company from Martin Whitmarsh.

“I believe we will win races this year, how many I don’t know and when I don’t know. Company was unfit and I said to them that if they match my commitment we will win. If they don’t match that they won’t be with the company.”

Dennis was on feisty form at press gathering at the McLaren Technical Centre in Woking, England, laying out his vision for the company and for the F1 team’s return to competitiveness after its worst season since 1980.

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2014/03/ron-dennis-breaks-his-silence-we-will-win-again-soon/

Tighty,

Remind us where we are with Mercedes please.

More & more I've become convinced that Mercedes will rule the roost this year. What ways can, or should, we exploit this?

We have until the Australian GP (Sunday week) to finalise our Season positions. I think we might need to consider loading up a bit more.

Our current F1 positions are as follows


25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral    Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Drivers Champion   Hamilton   3/1   30

25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral   Nov 2014   Formula1   Constructors Championship   Mercedes   6/5   25

31-Jan   Doobs   Betfred   Oct-2014   Formula1   F1 WDC   Button   12/1   20

25-Feb   Tal   Betfred   Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Australian Gp   Magnussen   12/1   20

I wrote a season preview this week, which goes through the technical changes and the general uncertainties for this season

I think its quite good, explains where pre-season testing has left us

http://www.betpal.com/formula-one-2014-season-betting-preview


In terms of current prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Hamilton now 5/2 best for the title and Mercedes 11/10 so we have good prices

Ron Dennis has said that McLaren have a speed/downforce issue that means they won't be quickest in Australia, but signs are reliability should be good

Williams looks to be very competitive


The contrarian play is to try to assess when the Renault powered teams resolve their issues. For example Vettel is 12/1 to win in Australia, Red Bull 9/2 for the constructors, Vettel has won 4 titles in a row and is 7/2 for the drivers etc etc. These would look fantastic if we had any visibility on the Renault cars solving the problems. We don't though. How far behind will they be by the time they are very competitive?

As it stands though with all the myriad uncertainties in a sport we find tough to make money on I am quite happy with our book. We might have added Williams too, but that aside we look in ok shape

[TightEnd]

League two player of the Month



League One Manager of the month



Championship Player of the Month



Think that's a thread trifecta......(hope its not the kiss of death)

[Tal]

Haven't had time to do any real research on this, but I am a keen follower of Cruft's, having been twice (In before the jokes). However, the best in show coming from the UTILITY group is 2/1 Ladbrokes and Odds on with everyone else. Assuming arb, but thought I'd pop it up.

Lol, I would SO like to do this. Is it still available?

First, ladies frocks, now Crufts. Adz will be in Fred Heaven.

Can still bet on it, although two of the eight groups have been decided upon (working and pastoral), so we have a quarter of the finalists. We have a Rottweiler and a Samoyed in the final.

Utility is now Evens best price. The judge of Best In Show is a utility man himself, breeding Siberian Huskies and Finnish Lapphunds.

Fancy a Banzai?

£10 on Pastoral at 16/1 with the red shouty one. Ever heard of a Samoyed? A judge of the same unusual surname (am going with wife) put a Samoyed second in the Pastoral group (out of 32 breeds) in 2011. Means relatively little and there will be some very good dogs out there in the other groups, but I'd be surprised if we are making a terrible bet. The margins in dog judging at that level are absolutely miniscule and sometimes it comes down to the individual taste of the judge. Making a name for a breed might be a consideration, too. Champion NIkara Diamond Dancer JW was a talented youngster (hence the Junior Warrant award at the end of his name) and has won three  (challenge certificates) major titles in his breed (hence the Champion title).

I can have a proper look at lunchtime if people are really that keen, but it is going to be a subjective decision made by one guy on Sunday night.

Fancy it?

[tikay]

Be quick and get £50 on betfred on hurricane fly at 4/1
https://betfred.mobi/sports/horses/event/3080436.2

Totesport pls

They don't seem to be offering it. 11/4 @ present.

Maybe they sussed that yesterday peeps were doing both Sites.

You are restricted at BetDead but not at the Nanny.  So you go to the Nanny first when time restricted.  The offer ended at 12.30. 

A couple of improvements people could make would be to put Paddy Power and Laddies offers on the Cheltenham thread. 

It would be good to flag Betfred bets as totesport ones just in case Tikay goes to the wrong place.

Redarmi mentioned this yesterday, but if people carry on using badly damaged accounts to put 50p on, it isn't a good thing.  Paddies get to find out that lots of people want to back outcome X just for a liability of a pound to Paddies.  I never use my Ladbrokes account for this reason, they really do seem to cut prices even though they have barely laid a pound sometimes.

I am not sure if it is wise to put up click links to bookie sites either.  If Ladbrokes get 30 people clicking a link here and all betting £50, it wouldn't be too hard for them to put 2 and 2 together. 

I'd also caution against anyone volunteering to bets at Paddies on for Tikay on this thread.  Arrangements off site are best kept that way.

I do try to use Totesport before BetFred, but, bizarrely, BetFred often have better prices. There is no explaining that anamoly.

I generaly have been non-Restricted by BetFred. This week, they've been a bit hard on me, maybe because of all the Offers, & maybe also because X gave me a horse at 10/1 which romped home for rather more than I normally bet.   

I'm unclear why placing tiddlearses with, say, PP & £3.65 is a bad thing? When PP began Restricting me (severely) it was nearly 2 years ago, & I had £400 in my PP account. I now have over £800 in that Account, just from tiddlearsing. And, of late, Chelters excepted, they'll often lay me a "sensible" sized bet on the more liquid markets. Ditto ditto Bet365, which had £350 in when they first Restricted me, it now has £1,100 in the Account, all from tiddlearsing. Some of it is non-Fred stuff, I should add.

And yes, I really ought to withdraw these various lumps of cash laying around in Bookies accounts. I need a PA. Or wife. I often have to Deposit on other sites, so it makes no sense to leave all that cash there. Scared of the withdrawal curse, maybe, it is rigged, you know. I read that on 2+2, so it has to be true.

Links to Bookies sites/Offers are ill-advised? I disagree. There is a complete disconnect on Fred as to the Fred effect with bookies. Did you know that Online Bookies have a crude yardstick to measure bet volume ahead of major betting events? They measure BETS PER SECOND. And they are measured in HUNDREDS. Think about that sheer volume. So I'm utterly convinced that a few dozen Freddies don't make a dot of difference, & the Bookies don't give a toss, or even know we exist. Obv, if we all lump on a thin market at the same time, prices are bound to move. There's nothing sinister in that.

Appreciate your input on this, even though I don't agree with all of it.

[TightEnd]

I watched the Pastorals last night, and the Samoyed was great. Really good breed conformity, great on the move*

No idea what it has to beat yet, but its a very nice dog

Click to see full-size image.

* just let me get the bluff through