Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Yes, pastoral. We are opposing the Jolly, Utility.

Right, I'll leave you all to it as I don't have any bets for the Flyball or Agility comps.

I've been to Cruft's twice with our family pet (placed in his class one year, which is quite an achievement) and we did the show circuit for about four years. Some stories. Some of them make chess players seem well rounded and open minded

We need to know more about this. We do.

Absolutely incred.

[tikay]

1) Do a bit of Housekeeping on your accounts, Maybe contact the restricted accounts and see if something can be done about it, after all they are bookies and next week is quite a big week for them. Very Liquid markets that they may be happy to lift the restrictions on your accounts for or at least release the noose a little bit.

You have never tried to have a discussion with a trader at one of these firms have you?  95% of the time they will just refuse to talk to you and give you a blanket "it is a trading decision" line.  I am fairly persistent though so I will recount a couple of the conversations I have had when I have got through.

(after getting offered 50 quid at 6/1 a horse when I asked for 300)
Me: Hi, I asked for 300 on red rum at 6/1 and you only offered me 50 but you didn't cut the price and now it is 13/2 so I assume you want to lay it so can I have the other 250 I wanted now at 13/2.
Trader: No
Me: Okay well how much can I have at 13/2?
Trader: Nothing
Me:How about laying me the 6/1 for a bit then?
Trader: No sorry.

(asking why an account had been restricted)
Me: Hi there this is account xyz45455.  I notice my account has been restricted and wondered if there was a reason for this given I have only had 5 bets and they all lost?
Trader: We think you are an arber and we don't welcome that kind of business sir as we are strictly a recreational firm.
Me:  Oh okay....I was looking to have a monkey on Arsenal tonight at Evens and that isn't an arb....would you be interested in that?
Trader: No
Me: So there are no circumstances you would lay me a bet?  Not even on something like the Grand National or at the Festival.
Trader: No - it is a trading decision sir and we won't enter into discussion about it

And finally my favourite from years ago when I worked for VC and we occasionally had to put money on for Michael Tabor

Me:  Hi, what price are Nottingham Forest tonight?
Trader: 4/11 sir.
Me: erm.....can I have 1.1 million to win 400k please?
Trader:  Are you joking?
Me:  No they want 1.1m
Trader: hang on.....(puts me on hold for quite a long time).......Hello sir, we can take 110.
Me:  110 thousand?
Trader:  No sir pounds
Me: Oh....erm.....okay.  I don't think he is going to like that.  Shall we just say nothing done?
Trader: probably for the best.

The last one had an interesting postscript on the Saturday after when John Brown who was Hills boss at the time phoned to try and back one of his horses he was going for a touch on with us but it is largely unrepeatable......

If you'd tell us more of these stories, we could forget worrying about Fred, pure entertainment, these stories are simply wonderful to read.

[tikay]

Tikay polishing his gong?

I thought I had got that one through......

[tikay]

I've got a bet where FredBet are best price but several firms haven't priced it up yet. Is it worth me putting the bet on here now or should I leave it until all the other firms have put their prices up? I know Fred can't get on and I've taken the Max I can. I don't think anyone will better this price but they may. Let me know?

Fred can get on, you just need to flag it as stoatsport.  Tikay goes to stoatsport, bet is laid in full.  Given he never puts much on and the account seems to be clean it is unlikely the Stoats will amend the price.  More get on.  Everybody happy.

Fred goes to Fredbet, Tikay gets restricted, Fredbet get a flag that a marked account is trying to get on, Tikay loses, price gets cut earlier. 

I actually tried to get on with Totesport FIRST. They were 11/8. So I went to BetFred & they were 7/4! Go figure.

Anyway, we got sorted one way & another eventually.

[tikay]

Whilst I have never been successful in getting restrictions lifted or limits increased on any accounts I have often been able to get more on by telephoning a bet than I am able to on an Internet account.

Since Fred began I've never once tried 'phoning bets through, maybe I should try that.

I used to do all my spread betting (pre 10 year betting sabbatical) via 'phone. 'Phones had dials in those days, mind. Lovely instruments.

[tikay]

I was at Shane Williams last game for Wales v Australia and never doubted he'd score. Even with 80 minutes on the clock you could see him lining up in the centre and knew he was going over in the corner. Great players do that, they always deliver.

Brian O'Driscoll is probably a bigger legend in Ireland than Shane was in Wales. He plays his last home game against Italy and to say the stars are aligning is an understatement. Parisse is out, Sexton is in. Zanni is out and Italy are now missing five back row players. There should be plenty of room on the pitch for BOD to do his stuff.

I can't see any Irish player making a break and not giving the ball to O'Driscoll to run in if Ireland have taken an healthy lead and team news and odds suggest they should. Ireland are 1/33 to win and have 23 points on the handicap. BOD is as low as evens to score anytime and can be had at 7/4 somewhere. I think that's a huge price. Hector, Tighty, any thoughts?

We got on that, & I have to say, it's looks like one of those bets that simply can't lose. If he avoids an early injury, it has to win.

[scotty2hatty]

20 guests on fred at 4am?? Really?  Don't think i have ever seen 20 guests during the peak times in the day??  Is this the time the bookies £25k a year 'lol traders' sign in to check up on the action?  Come and join and sign up and tell us what you know.  We give plenty back to you FOC and you won't even lay us a bet you spineless weasels.

Where did 16 of the 20 guests go 5 mins after i posted this?  Surely your £25k a year night shift trading roles were feet up at 345am once the lakers game had started and you could carry on reading and catching up on fred??  Nothing else to do once the lakers game had started surely? 

Is there a reason why you need to keep mentioning their salary?

[scotty2hatty]

Im in warrington....

Ban.

[tikay]

Some great posts here and a very good derail I reckon Omm. One of the best ever tips on here was the 150/1 cycling bet. Now I totally understand that the point of TFT is to stick up your bet, let people kick it around a bit and see if it is decided that Fred should bet it, but basically if anyone who is half regular here tips a massive price on something that nobody else has the expertise to throw out then we want to be on whatever. It totally killed me at the time to think that those bastards only got punished for less than £50 there. I'm sure if the bet had been PMd to Tikay (or Tighty) they could have done it (maybe via someone else) for £30 or so. If then it got posted and everyone said this is obviously a true 200/1 chance then Tikay is stuck with the bet "off Fred".

 Obviously that situation is not 100% perfect and it's hard to know always what are "snap bet it" things plus Tony will get lumbered with things nobody fancies sometimes. It may also create more work which is not good.

 I'm only suggesting this for bigger prices in brilliantly researched obscure markets where posting your tip basically means nobody gets on.

Everyone knows that Tikay is getting the lot "off-Fred" mostly cos he is great at making errors and missclicks...maybe the best in his field.

That's an interesting angle.

Yes, I'd get "stuck" with a few bad bets off-thread, but I'm honestly not bothered, bad bets often win. It's worth it, imo.

Incidentally, several Freddies already do this, including some very popular regulars. I have had advance notice 3 times this week already about incoming bets, which has enabled Fred to get his score or whatever on in advance. I won't name those who do this, but obviously, I'm grateful. I can imagine, howver, that others may not like this, me getting first dibs, & I'd understand that.

[sonour]

Yes more stories please Red.

2014 Crufts
Best in Show
Pastoral
16/1
£10 W
ON

[tikay]

Rubbish yes 7/4 is a bet.    Neil I think the way tft operates has to change in a restricted-monitored world. Either/or make the thread private or get the bet on via pm then post it up. A bigger network of helpers to get the bets on too

If making the thread private (locked) & or subscripton-based would solve the problem, yes. But I'm not convinced it would.

I do have some ideas to throw out there though, once I've finished this Q & A session.

[tikay]

Yes more stories please Red.

2014 Crufts
Best in Show
Pastoral
16/1
£10 W
ON

Ooh, thanks Lisa.

Normal Settlement Terms, then.


BOOKED


BET PLACED

[TightEnd]

“We have to get back to competitiveness as soon as possible and we will get there much faster than people imagine, ” declared McLaren boss Ron Dennis this morning, breaking his silence for the first time since seizing back control of the company from Martin Whitmarsh.

“I believe we will win races this year, how many I don’t know and when I don’t know. Company was unfit and I said to them that if they match my commitment we will win. If they don’t match that they won’t be with the company.”

Dennis was on feisty form at press gathering at the McLaren Technical Centre in Woking, England, laying out his vision for the company and for the F1 team’s return to competitiveness after its worst season since 1980.

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2014/03/ron-dennis-breaks-his-silence-we-will-win-again-soon/

Tighty,

Remind us where we are with Mercedes please.

More & more I've become convinced that Mercedes will rule the roost this year. What ways can, or should, we exploit this?

We have until the Australian GP (Sunday week) to finalise our Season positions. I think we might need to consider loading up a bit more.

Our current F1 positions are as follows


25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral    Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Drivers Champion   Hamilton   3/1   30

25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral   Nov 2014   Formula1   Constructors Championship   Mercedes   6/5   25

31-Jan   Doobs   Betfred   Oct-2014   Formula1   F1 WDC   Button   12/1   20

25-Feb   Tal   Betfred   Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Australian Gp   Magnussen   12/1   20

I wrote a season preview this week, which goes through the technical changes and the general uncertainties for this season

I think its quite good, explains where pre-season testing has left us

http://www.betpal.com/formula-one-2014-season-betting-preview


In terms of current prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Hamilton now 5/2 best for the title and Mercedes 11/10 so we have good prices

Ron Dennis has said that McLaren have a speed/downforce issue that means they won't be quickest in Australia, but signs are reliability should be good

Williams looks to be very competitive


The contrarian play is to try to assess when the Renault powered teams resolve their issues. For example Vettel is 12/1 to win in Australia, Red Bull 9/2 for the constructors, Vettel has won 4 titles in a row and is 7/2 for the drivers etc etc. These would look fantastic if we had any visibility on the Renault cars solving the problems. We don't though. How far behind will they be by the time they are very competitive?

As it stands though with all the myriad uncertainties in a sport we find tough to make money on I am quite happy with our book. We might have added Williams too, but that aside we look in ok shape

OK, fair enough, though I'd have been happy to invest a little more on any Mercedes based angle.

Im not dogmatic about it

Mercedes prices have shortened, but if there is an angle anyone spots for them or any other driver/team, post it up please

[millidonk]

[tikay]

I've got a bet where FredBet are best price but several firms haven't priced it up yet. Is it worth me putting the bet on here now or should I leave it until all the other firms have put their prices up? I know Fred can't get on and I've taken the Max I can. I don't think anyone will better this price but they may. Let me know?

I'll be going Offline for the evening @ 6pm latest, if you can let us know before then, I'll try & get on.

For the record, I am NOT generally Restricted by Betfred, it is usually only only on "Offers".

It's the Brian O'Driscoll bet. If you can get £40/£50 on I think you should.

We are safely on board, thank you.

For the record, BetFred were still going 7/4, but Restricted me to £25, whilst Totesport were 11/8, & I could have (within reason I suppose) any amount.

Details in the morning, way too busy right now.


We deffo have £25 @ 7/4 with Betfred. Do we want a bit of that 11/8 with Tote?


BET PLACED

Dont take the 11/8 Pops as you can have 13/8 with me from Slybet or if politically you cannot have that can have upto £80 with PP at 8/5 just lmk

Good man Rich, thanks.

Don't want to go the Sk*Bet route please, my lurkers & haters are always watching & waiting for me to make a mistake, (   )but if you could let me have £25 @ 8/5 with PP I'd be most grateful.

Please confirm either way.

£25 booked and on Pops

Thanks Rich.

I'll arrange settlement via PM, along with our other stuff.

BOOKED

BET PLACED