Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

All joking apart I think Dubais post was a good one.  I know Keith tipped Hull in the Cup a few weeks ago but there is almost never a reasoned argument to bet a football team on here these days and rarely does someone go into great detail about a horse they like etc.   I have never mentioned this before but the reason I came to Blonde in the first place was because I knew Keith posted here and we had mutual friends who respected his view so when I saw he posted here I thought I would keep visiting to see if I could learn something new and then discovered that the place was full of smart punters and quite friendly.  Personally I can almost never get on any of the offers when I am not in the UK but i lie to read about them and I think Sonour in particular has brough a great deal to the table and it is testament to the strength of Fred that Arbboy is so keen to not get banned he has resisted having a single ruck here yet!!!!

I agree with this post, but isn't it somewhat against the theory that all of a football teams results/form/injury news is already factored into the price and thus to beat the bookies margin you need to be able to post some nugget of local knowledge that the layers haven't bothered to pick up on because it is down in League 2?   

I have looked at a couple of prices for lower league games and thought "that looks wrong", but then thought "maybe I'm wrong because it's all in the price etc".  I've backed them myself, but didn't have the confidence to post it up on the thread.

[Longy]

Sigh, I pretty sure I am at best break even in sng satellites at WSOP.

[mondatoo]

All joking apart I think Dubais post was a good one.  I know Keith tipped Hull in the Cup a few weeks ago but there is almost never a reasoned argument to bet a football team on here these days and rarely does someone go into great detail about a horse they like etc.   I have never mentioned this before but the reason I came to Blonde in the first place was because I knew Keith posted here and we had mutual friends who respected his view so when I saw he posted here I thought I would keep visiting to see if I could learn something new and then discovered that the place was full of smart punters and quite friendly.  Personally I can almost never get on any of the offers when I am not in the UK but i lie to read about them and I think Sonour in particular has brough a great deal to the table and it is testament to the strength of Fred that Arbboy is so keen to not get banned he has resisted having a single ruck here yet!!!!

I agree with this post, but isn't it somewhat against the theory that all of a football teams results/form/injury news is already factored into the price and thus to beat the bookies margin you need to be able to post some nugget of local knowledge that the layers haven't bothered to pick up on because it is down in League 2?   

I have looked at a couple of prices for lower league games and thought "that looks wrong", but then thought "maybe I'm wrong because it's all in the price etc".  I've backed them myself, but didn't have the confidence to post it up on the thread.

Why not just post itt saying it's an idea instead of a recommendation ?

That way you either get agreed with and thread can get on, or someone with more knowledge of the market can help educate you, win win, confirmed best part of the thread.

Don't think I've seen anyone receive genuine aggro itt about a tip in 4k+ pages so I can't see any reason why anyone wouldn't feel happy to post there ideas itt.

Also this way when thread ignores and you win you get to be a smartarse (cough cough, Tyne Wear derby, cough cough).

[redarmi]

All joking apart I think Dubais post was a good one.  I know Keith tipped Hull in the Cup a few weeks ago but there is almost never a reasoned argument to bet a football team on here these days and rarely does someone go into great detail about a horse they like etc.   I have never mentioned this before but the reason I came to Blonde in the first place was because I knew Keith posted here and we had mutual friends who respected his view so when I saw he posted here I thought I would keep visiting to see if I could learn something new and then discovered that the place was full of smart punters and quite friendly.  Personally I can almost never get on any of the offers when I am not in the UK but i lie to read about them and I think Sonour in particular has brough a great deal to the table and it is testament to the strength of Fred that Arbboy is so keen to not get banned he has resisted having a single ruck here yet!!!!

I agree with this post, but isn't it somewhat against the theory that all of a football teams results/form/injury news is already factored into the price and thus to beat the bookies margin you need to be able to post some nugget of local knowledge that the layers haven't bothered to pick up on because it is down in League 2?   

I have looked at a couple of prices for lower league games and thought "that looks wrong", but then thought "maybe I'm wrong because it's all in the price etc".  I've backed them myself, but didn't have the confidence to post it up on the thread.

Whislt I am probably guilty of saying this myself I am not sure it is true.  or sure if you are looking at prices at 1pm on a Saturday then a lot of that information is going to be in the price but on a Tuesday for a Saturdays game there is still plenty of value to be had.  I think the misconception comes when people want to be x team because they have won their last five games etc.  The odds compilers will always take that into consideration and it is unlikely (although not impossible) that you will profit from such info.  The fact that both of Tranmeres centrebacks are out and they are their most important players is much less likely to be in the price at that point because most firms compilers have to come up with prices before they can get good team news from the weekend before.  It is also worth noting that the biggest syndicates can only invariably bet on the day of the game so that tends to be when the prices get ironed out before then there is value if you are a good judge.  

[arbboy]

Thanks for the kind words Red.

Snap!!!

[arbboy]

All joking apart I think Dubais post was a good one.  I know Keith tipped Hull in the Cup a few weeks ago but there is almost never a reasoned argument to bet a football team on here these days and rarely does someone go into great detail about a horse they like etc.   I have never mentioned this before but the reason I came to Blonde in the first place was because I knew Keith posted here and we had mutual friends who respected his view so when I saw he posted here I thought I would keep visiting to see if I could learn something new and then discovered that the place was full of smart punters and quite friendly.  Personally I can almost never get on any of the offers when I am not in the UK but i lie to read about them and I think Sonour in particular has brough a great deal to the table and it is testament to the strength of Fred that Arbboy is so keen to not get banned he has resisted having a single ruck here yet!!!!

I agree with this post, but isn't it somewhat against the theory that all of a football teams results/form/injury news is already factored into the price and thus to beat the bookies margin you need to be able to post some nugget of local knowledge that the layers haven't bothered to pick up on because it is down in League 2?   

I have looked at a couple of prices for lower league games and thought "that looks wrong", but then thought "maybe I'm wrong because it's all in the price etc".  I've backed them myself, but didn't have the confidence to post it up on the thread.

This is exactly the thing i was talking about in my posts last night.  There is never too much information imo.  The lower down the leagues you go the less likely the things you have spotted at in the price especially early in the week.  These nuggets of local information are where we can still get relatively big edges imo.

[DungBeetle]

Ok - so I'll give an example.

Plymouth are 19/10 dogs at Bristol Rovers tomorrow.  I've followed both teams closely all season as I have season long spread bet positions.  Plymouth are bombing it at the moment and have real momentum, whereas Bristol Rovers have generally been poor, but have been showing a bit of life recently.

I thought this would be priced more along the lines of Hartlepool at Wycombe on the same day where Hartlepool are 13/8 so my head is thinking that Plymouth are a good price.  However, I then default to thinking the form/momentum/morale is already in the price so it's just an error in judgement on my behalf.

[nirvana]

From my point of view id rather read a 100 line essay from Ant about a palace game than any mention of offers/arbing/free bets etc- just a personal preference. Give me opinions and bets over the other stuff any day of the week

Will clarify- once we've all understood that offers and free bets are +ev then there isn't much more to bring to the discussion, the offers and free bets are usually small stakes anyway.

As for arbing- it's a hard way to make an easy living and not a route I want to go down. Feels like it's the last resort of a gambler when the game is getting to hard and can't be beaten anymore. Compare it to poker and if you are good you play online cash, when can't beat they move to online mtts/sngs. When can't beat that live cash, eventually end up live mtts and assume last resort is live sngs during wsop. Arbing is the equivalent of having to sit in the rio playing for lammers in sngs, undoubtably profitable , but the last resort for a means to an end.

I like this post, don't mention it to Galloway though, think he spends 5 weeks a year lammering away

[JaffaCake]

Tikay,

You asked earlier about PP Messenger. It is an app. You need to go to the App Store and download it. You will need your apple id and password. My  apple id which is my email address comes up automatically. It is free. Then login with your normal PP login details.

Lovely, thanks. Except I had major Apple Log-In problems yesterday.

Might be easily resolved, might not, see.....


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology-science/technology/apple-refuses-unlock-dead-womans-3214436


Anyway, will try a bit later. I'll tell them I'm still breathing.

Hi sonour n tikay. Got this working ok last night just randomly opening it again and on about the 20th time it worked.

If u go to paddy powers normal site its also in the boxes u can scroll along at the bottom of the first screen. Scroll all the way to the right, it's the last one, don't think u need Apple ID etc then.

Fred is great as he is, any boring stuff (Tal) u just skip, all the good stuff (rest of it) I read and back the good ideas or the guys I trust. Don't split Fred, who will be in the woman's dress/dogging area wi Tal?

Appreciate both tikay n tighty for the time they put in, keep up the good work x

PS I love Tal too, just he takes banter better than others (Arbboy)

[redarmi]

Ok - so I'll give an example.

Plymouth are 19/10 dogs at Bristol Rovers tomorrow.  I've followed both teams closely all season as I have season long spread bet positions.  Plymouth are bombing it at the moment and have real momentum, whereas Bristol Rovers have generally been poor, but have been showing a bit of life recently.

I thought this would be priced more along the lines of Hartlepool at Wycombe on the same day where Hartlepool are 13/8 so my head is thinking that Plymouth are a good price.  However, I then default to thinking the form/momentum/morale is already in the price so it's just an error in judgement on my behalf.

One thing to bear in mind is that if you make both teams roughly equal then whilst the bookies will price it 13/8 each of two the real price is probably more like 19/10 each and 9/4 the draw so if you thought the prices in the Hartlepool game were pitched about right in terms of the team abilities you still probably don't have much of an edge, if any, by taking the dog at 19/10.  The other thing I would say is that always remember to put a bit of margin in for yourself so if you make a team 6/4 you probably shouldn't be betting that team at 8/5 even though it is a bigger price.  I generally need 5% over my price to have a bet depending on the event because I make errors and that gives me a bit of margin for error in case I have missed something.

[Tal]

Tikay,

You asked earlier about PP Messenger. It is an app. You need to go to the App Store and download it. You will need your apple id and password. My  apple id which is my email address comes up automatically. It is free. Then login with your normal PP login details.

Lovely, thanks. Except I had major Apple Log-In problems yesterday.

Might be easily resolved, might not, see.....


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology-science/technology/apple-refuses-unlock-dead-womans-3214436


Anyway, will try a bit later. I'll tell them I'm still breathing.

Hi sonour n tikay. Got this working ok last night just randomly opening it again and on about the 20th time it worked.

If u go to paddy powers normal site its also in the boxes u can scroll along at the bottom of the first screen. Scroll all the way to the right, it's the last one, don't think u need Apple ID etc then.

Fred is great as he is, any boring stuff (Tal) u just skip, all the good stuff (rest of it) I read and back the good ideas or the guys I trust. Don't split Fred, who will be in the woman's dress/dogging area wi Tal?

Appreciate both tikay n tighty for the time they put in, keep up the good work x

PS I love Tal too, just he takes banter better than others (Arbboy)

Back of the queue, please. No jumping line.

[TightEnd]

I have branched out into Rugby League this season

Three weeks into the season and I have had several first try scorer winning bets, all wingers

Here is the write up

"Huddersfield Giants v Leeds Rhinos

After a great opening day win 24-8 at Wigan, Huddersfield’s start to the season has faltered. Drawing against Hull KR and losing to Widnes were both unexpected results, the consequence of which is that bookies have installed Huddersfield at 2-1 for Friday’s game, and Leeds 4/7 favourites

Leeds are an exciting team this year, with the best set of backs in the League capable of putting teams to the sword. They have won their first three games this season scoring 34 points in Hull and 40 in France last weekend. I look to the first try-scorer market, where this column has had success already this season, as alternatives to Leeds outright

Tom Briscoe, the newly recruited winger, has 5 tries in his opening three games and is available at 7/1 with (check oddschecker please!) first try-scorer

He is the current Super League Top try-scorer

Super League top try scorers

Tom Briscoe (Leeds) 5
Justin Carney (Castleford) 4
Jermaine McGillvary (Huddersfield) 4
Kevin Brown (Widnes) 3
Damien Cardace (Catalan Dragons) 3

Leeds’ expansive style will give us a real run for our money at 7/1"

I asked the question of the RL boys on the Super League thread

"I think there will be a fair few trys tonight and for someone who will be top try scorer for Leeds this season that aint a bad price. His try vs Warr a few weeks ago was pure clase, caught the ball running through the defence, side foot the fullback and facepalm the traking back cover, he is a machine! I know Hall aint happy with not being the number 1. scorer now lol. But yeah Briscoe seems to be the go to guy right now and my only fear would be Hudds hitting us hard right away.

It's such a strange game tonight, who would have thought Hudds after their win at Wigan would look so erratic? Good luck on the Briscoe bet, I would have guessed him being around 5/1."

"As for top try scorer Tighty, it's always a bit of a punt as any of the Leeds back line are decent chances to score and would imagine that Hudds have a fair few likely candidates too. Not seen the other prices but Hardaker has started well this season. Also think it will be a tighter game than some think."

"Yeah Rhinos have some excellent players at back, 9/1 Tom Briscoe at Laddys seems value though"


Strategy is on the next post, bear with me

[TightEnd]

1 Leeds have a terrific back line, but are small up front. They tend to play expansively, get the ball out wide quick and have very creative centres to make the chances. This is why Briscoe, Hardaker and co are such a threat

2 RL v RU. Particularly early in games between closely matched sides the main try scoring opportunities are found when the attacking side takes it up for the first five tackles, and on the sixth tackle 10 metres from the line the half-back does the grubber kick or the bomb out wide to a) look for a defensive mistake b) pin the defence in the in-goal area for a drop out or c) let the winger go up/get it and score.

So a winger either has a chance from c) or, for the better teams, the attack get repeated sets of six to build pressure and eventually a lot of teams lose defensive discipline and the wide overlap is created

Later in games as defences tire you see more tries from open play, breaking tackles earlier in the tackle count etc

Having looked at back of an envelope stuff I have been doing, a disproportionate number of first tries in RL are scored by wingers

Its a punt - the other team can score first of course, but its no surprise to see wingers score first tries the way RL games are played

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-league/super-league/huddersfield-v-leeds/first-tryscorer

Briscoe at 9/1 is a £10 type bet that I don't think is a 9-1 shot. Ryan Hall is not currently first choice and he is joint favourite. Mcgillvary is the Huddersfield winger

[TightEnd]

Tighty.

If you are going to back 1st try scorers in Super League then look to do it with Betfred. They offer double the odds if your player scores again, and treble for a hatrick. Very good value on wingers in games you think will be high scoring.

thank you, didn't know that!

[MereNovice]

Tennis arb opportunity

Only kidding. I wouldn't say that this is a genuine arb since the rules for void bets vary from bookie to bookie, i.e. satan will void the bet unless the match is completed.


Camila Giorgi v Sorana Cirstea

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wta-indian-wells/camila-giorgi-v-sorana-cirstea/winner

Satan has Giorgi (ranked 79) at 10/11. (They are definite stand-out here).
Bet247 has Cirstea (ranked 27) 11/8.

I'd suggest that both of these are value bets. Someone with more insight than me may be able to tell you which one is better.
The match is 6pm tomorrow so I don't think that they can accept your bet now and void it after the match if they don't like the result.
Betfair is currently lacking in volume but favours Giorgi.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/market?id=1.113155322&exp=e

There has been a lot of money for Giorgi following a good win against Petkovic in the previous round (Cirstea got a bye). I've watched Cirstea's last three matches and she is in poor form but basically just her usual inconsistent self. She was very poor in her last match against Wozniacki but decent against an ordinary Errani in her previous match.
Cirstea is not injured as far as news reports and social media indicate.
https://twitter.com/sorana_cirstea
https://www.facebook.com/Soranacirstea

As Fred is persona non grata with satan and heavily restricted with Bet247 this isn't really of any use to him; I just thought that I'd post something.