Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Also, if we do Sizing Europe, what time is that race?

3.20

[booder]

Put the £50 on MK Dons for top six in League One please, 8/1

[arbboy]

if you dont want to tie the cash up for as long as the world cup victor are virtually top price (matching bf) every golfer in the pga tour event this week on most of the runners up to the 40/1 market.  Rose at 28/1 probably the best option of the lot at victor.


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/valspar-championship/winner

I only quickly suggested chile and italy and now this golf event if the free bet had to be used in a rush today before racing finished to give you some big priced options at vc which are close to their true price.  I don't have any strong views on any of these events/selections.

[Chompy]

Put the £50 on MK Dons for top six in League One please, 8/1

Stdd Wednesday rebuffery.

[TightEnd]

Day Two Race Two

Race Result

Ballycasey -£2.50

Many Clouds 0 free bet

Day Result +61.88


Cumulative Cheltenham Result -£141.96

[tikay]

Put the £50 on MK Dons for top six in League One please, 8/1

We have done this with Corals, NOT the Free Bet. Don't ask.

£50 @ 8/1, MK Dons, Top 6 Finish, League One



MK Dons8/1Top 6 Finish - 03/05/2014


Stake £10.00

Estimated Return:£90.00


Total Stake: £10.00

Potential Return: £90.0

BET PLACED

[TightEnd]

Is that bet 10 or 50 please?

[tikay]

there are so many easy spots to convert free bets into cash if u willing to tie up the cash laying them at the same price or slightly under on bf.  Fred shouldn't ever be taking under 20/1 really for a free bet.  Golfers every week are available to back and lay at the same price on bf as with firms.  It convents the free bets into actual cash with 95%+ conversion rate without the worry of variance.  Surely the whole point of these free bets is to convert them back to cash and doing it this way imo if far less swingy that actually punting them and actually 'sweating' realising the ev esp on things around the 8/1 -12/1 mark where you are still setting fire to a fair amount of ev compared to backing a 33/1 or 50/1 shot which is the same price on bf.

I am short of thinking time today, but I deffo think we should debate this logic once Cheltenham is done, & perhaps use it for future Free Bets.

It was my understanding - maybe wrongly - that the optimal price for a Free Bet was around 10/1 to 12/1, that sort of range, above that, the advantage lessens.

You are suggesting the 33/1 & 40/1 shots are far better.

This is surely one or the other, a maths thing, but I've not got a clue.

Think we need to debate this, unless I just misunderstood.

[tikay]

Is that bet 10 or 50 please?

Apologies, typo, £10, as recommended this morning, I believe.

We had £10 on Sheff U Top Six, & Chompers Posted this morning......

Anyhoo, whatever we have on T'Blades to finish top six, please have the same on MK Dons @ 10-1

So the bet is £10, exactly as Mr Angry (Fens) requested.

[Doobs]

there are so many easy spots to convert free bets into cash if u willing to tie up the cash laying them at the same price or slightly under on bf.  Fred shouldn't ever be taking under 20/1 really for a free bet.  Golfers every week are available to back and lay at the same price on bf as with firms.  It convents the free bets into actual cash with 95%+ conversion rate without the worry of variance.  Surely the whole point of these free bets is to convert them back to cash and doing it this way imo if far less swingy that actually punting them and actually 'sweating' realising the ev esp on things around the 8/1 -12/1 mark where you are still setting fire to a fair amount of ev compared to backing a 33/1 or 50/1 shot which is the same price on bf.

Call

95% of our free bets are with Hills.  They are rarely highest in the golf markets.  It has been mentioned before, I have spent way too much time looking there.  So I bet say Rose at 25/1, I lay at 28/1, I set fire to EV, I pay 5% commission on an arb, I set fire to EV.

The whole point of these bets wasn't to convert them for cash it was to have a bunch of bets that were positive EV.  

People are quite welcome to do something else with their bets

[Karabiner]

Some books won't let you have your free bet on anything over 10/1.

Surely that tells you that bigger is better within reason.

Ed Gascoigne explained the concept beautifully on one of the early pages of fred I believe.

[tikay]

Good, we have a debate.

For now, we'll back Sizing Europe in the next with our £50 Free Bet.

[Doobs]

Some books won't let you have your free bet on anything over 10/1.

Surely that tells you that bigger is better within reason.

Ed Gascoigne explained the concept beautifully on one of the early pages of fred I believe.

I explained the maths perfectly over several posts on the maths in betting thread.

People want an important debate,I suggest this thread in the middle of Cheltenham isn't the best place for it.

[tikay]

BMU accepted the Free Bet using the "Use Promo Cash" button as Marky suggested.


15:20SIZING EUROPE (Horse Racing Outright)Odds: 12/1 Stake: 50.00Possible Return:  600.00


£50 FREE BET PLACED

[Doobs]

Good, we have a debate.

For now, we'll back Sizing Europe in the next with our £50 Free Bet.

Ha I only asked for 25.