Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Completely understand Tal.

I must confess to finding amusing that several people who probably listen to one political speech a year can make a value statement on a word being used from 16-1 to 8-1. Hardly a bunch of parliamentry experts are we?!

Fred has developed a habit of accepting almost every bet offered these days. When I first joined around two plus, years ago, I had numerous bets knocked back, as did several others, rightly or wrongly, but Fred was profitable as a result then. At the moment he is almost in financial freefall and very little is changing to stop the rot. Not my money, admittedly, and I can choose the stuff I follow, but my  its my favourite read on the net, so I do feel a touch of ownership.

I will be the first to admit I have yet to make a positive contribution this year with none of my few bets winning, but all have been well researched, and I would put them all up again. They ain't just guesses.

I would suggest that a few conclusions can be drawn from that.

No doubt I might have put a few noses out of joint, so excuse me, no harm intended.  


I also say this as one of a few people that backed a 100-1 jobbie in the speech last year .....but I keep my degen stuff off Fred!

I'm not sure that is true, Adzy. For starters, I miss half the bets put up due to time pressure! Others can get or, or not, as they wish though. 7 different Recommends for the Budget Speech were proposed. Fred backed just one of them. Sometimes I have to reject things "silently". No reply can mean thanks but no thanks.....

The idea is that folks put stuff up, & others critique it. If they don't, the decision is left with me. I accept full responsibility for that, & use my own money.
And of course, just because Fred gets on, nobody else is forced to. That's the whole thing, everyone can cherry-pick what they thing is good.

As most know, my workload elsewhere has increased enormously of late, what with UKPC, and what has since taken place because of it's success.   

I've stated several times that it's difficult for me to cope at the moment, & if anyone else wants to take my place, I'd be very grateful, & would assist as much as able.

Tighty has offered, repeatedly, & I don't mind that method, if we all agree, but that has complications - he'd have to use my Accounts, most of which are Restricted now. 

It's all quite a puzzle as to what to do for the best. But if we enjoy the thread enough, we ought to be able to work together & help find the solution, working as a team, with everyone contributing ideas which might assist.

I'm reasonably sure that the last 2 months have just been variance kicking in. We ran outrageously well in 2013. And of course, just because Fred gets on, nobody else is forced to. That's the whole thing, everyone can cherry-pick what they thing is good.

We certainly don't need to do is fall out with each other.

Ps - Well done on the 100/1 winner in last years Budget Speech. How did you get that though without any aftertiming jibes? You don't 'arf run good. 

All well documented last year, before you start. Cant remember who suggested it, I just did my Marky impression and backed anything anyone put up......

Never intended to upset anyone during the debate, I just think we have some over sensitive little bunnies on here at times(I may well be one). I accept some of my "challenges" may come across as confrontational at times, but no harm intended, and I would hate to think someone stops posting because of me. Those that know me on here will confirm I am a pussy cat. I just don't flower up my words....that's Tal's dept


Fairly clear why we are running so bad versus last year is the loss/reduction of input from some significants, Dubai/bobby1/Camel/Neil rather than straight variance.

[arbboy]

idiot question to answer please.  Why has Tidal Bay been given an advantage by the hcap'er when the weights were released weeks ago?  what's changed?

[ripple11]

Re Budget speech : Stan James are doing 100/1 on the words "Stan" and "James"

A fiver on, .....hoping he quotes some economist/Treasury bod with "James" in his name lol

anytime you want a big winner, just give me a shout  

[BigAdz]

idiot question to answer please.  Why has Tidal Bay been given an advantage by the hcap'er when the weights were released weeks ago?  what's changed?

In simple terms he should be carrying around 12stone for his weight to match his handicap mark. As it is he only has 11.10, so he is effectively well in against his handicap mark.

If you look at the early decs on th SL website, a quick glimpse looking at the ratings probably shows it better than I explain it.

[BigAdz]

Re Budget speech : Stan James are doing 100/1 on the words "Stan" and "James"

A fiver on, .....hoping he quotes some economist/Treasury bod with "James" in his name lol

anytime you want a big winner, just give me a shout  

Thats the fella. Always liked ripples!!

[tikay]

Completely understand Tal.

I must confess to finding amusing that several people who probably listen to one political speech a year can make a value statement on a word being used from 16-1 to 8-1. Hardly a bunch of parliamentry experts are we?!

Fred has developed a habit of accepting almost every bet offered these days. When I first joined around two plus, years ago, I had numerous bets knocked back, as did several others, rightly or wrongly, but Fred was profitable as a result then. At the moment he is almost in financial freefall and very little is changing to stop the rot. Not my money, admittedly, and I can choose the stuff I follow, but my  its my favourite read on the net, so I do feel a touch of ownership.

I will be the first to admit I have yet to make a positive contribution this year with none of my few bets winning, but all have been well researched, and I would put them all up again. They ain't just guesses.

I would suggest that a few conclusions can be drawn from that.

No doubt I might have put a few noses out of joint, so excuse me, no harm intended.  


I also say this as one of a few people that backed a 100-1 jobbie in the speech last year .....but I keep my degen stuff off Fred!

I'm not sure that is true, Adzy. For starters, I miss half the bets put up due to time pressure! Others can get or, or not, as they wish though. 7 different Recommends for the Budget Speech were proposed. Fred backed just one of them. Sometimes I have to reject things "silently". No reply can mean thanks but no thanks.....

The idea is that folks put stuff up, & others critique it. If they don't, the decision is left with me. I accept full responsibility for that, & use my own money.
And of course, just because Fred gets on, nobody else is forced to. That's the whole thing, everyone can cherry-pick what they thing is good.

As most know, my workload elsewhere has increased enormously of late, what with UKPC, and what has since taken place because of it's success.   

I've stated several times that it's difficult for me to cope at the moment, & if anyone else wants to take my place, I'd be very grateful, & would assist as much as able.

Tighty has offered, repeatedly, & I don't mind that method, if we all agree, but that has complications - he'd have to use my Accounts, most of which are Restricted now. 

It's all quite a puzzle as to what to do for the best. But if we enjoy the thread enough, we ought to be able to work together & help find the solution, working as a team, with everyone contributing ideas which might assist.

I'm reasonably sure that the last 2 months have just been variance kicking in. We ran outrageously well in 2013. And of course, just because Fred gets on, nobody else is forced to. That's the whole thing, everyone can cherry-pick what they thing is good.

We certainly don't need to do is fall out with each other.

Ps - Well done on the 100/1 winner in last years Budget Speech. How did you get that though without any aftertiming jibes? You don't 'arf run good. 

All well documented last year, before you start. Cant remember who suggested it, I just did my Marky impression and backed anything anyone put up......

Never intended to upset anyone during the debate, I just think we have some over sensitive little bunnies on here at times(I may well be one). I accept some of my "challenges" may come across as confrontational at times, but no harm intended, and I would hate to think someone stops posting because of me. Those that know me on here will confirm I am a pussy cat. I just don't flower up my words....that's Tal's dept


Fairly clear why we are running so bad versus last year is the loss/reduction of input from some significants, Dubai/bobby1/Camel/Neil rather than straight variance.

That is certainly part of it. But we just have to manage without them, until & unless they return. In fact, Camel was a very rare "tipster", though he contributed a great deal by way of coaching/advice etc. Last time I communicated with Camel he told me he was just taking a break, & I understood he would return in due course. I don't feel I should pressurise him further, he is his own man, & will return if & when he wishes. Stubborn little sod, him.

I hope you gave Tal a birthday kiss. You did, right?

[tikay]

Re Budget speech : Stan James are doing 100/1 on the words "Stan" and "James"

A fiver on, .....hoping he quotes some economist/Treasury bod with "James" in his name lol

anytime you want a big winner, just give me a shout  

BOOM!

I remember that now.

When we are having a rough patch, it's easy to forget these things.

[arbboy]

idiot question to answer please.  Why has Tidal Bay been given an advantage by the hcap'er when the weights were released weeks ago?  what's changed?

In simple terms he should be carrying around 12stone for his weight to match his handicap mark. As it is he only has 11.10, so he is effectively well in against his handicap mark.

If you look at the early decs on th SL website, a quick glimpse looking at the ratings probably shows it better than I explain it.

I assume he has run since the weights were published then and gone up 4lbs as a result then if his handicap mark is 4lbs higher than it was at the time the weights were published?  correct?

09Feb14      Leo 24Sft/Hy ChG1 76K   11-10   2/7 (8½L Last Instalment 11-10) 5/2   R Walsh   168

So he run up to an offical mark of 168 in this race and is allocated 161 on the national weights so he is effectively 7lbs well in??

[redarmi]

Tighy asked me if I would post my thoughts on the upcoming MLB season and I have had a fairly long look over the last few days.  All of the Sabremetrics out there these days mean that unless you really follow the sport and understand the maths it is hard to be the best but I'm not sure the oddsmakers are that great either especially when it comes to the ante post stuff and I think there are a couple of edges.

Firstly, going back to the division that we had our bets in last year.  I think my analysis at the beginning of the season was okay and we certainly had value in the Rays and we realised the Red Sox were the real deal in time to have a saver on them.  The bet last year basically revolved around the fact that the Yankees were overbet by the market and that the BlueJays were not going to be as good as expected.    If we look at the market this year we can see that the BLue Jays were awful last year and are expected to be the same again.  The Orioles are probably about what we would expect from them as a rag too which leaves us with the Yanks, Red Sox and Rays again.  Last year the Yankees won 85 games out of 162 so about 52% of game.  They scored 616 runs and conceded 702 runs.  Teams that have that run differential should really be expected to win about 71 games.  Since then they have traded their best hitter Robinson Cano, Andy Pettite who was a very good pitcher has retired as has Mariano Rivera who is probably the best relieving pitcher ever so you should expect them to be worse yet they are still third faves for the division and fifth faves for the world series.  They have made some improvements to the team but overall most of the roster is 30+ and they just look like a team in decline to me.  I think there are a couple of ways you can bet it.  The most obvious is to bet under 87 total season wins.  It is -129 at pinnacle (a shade under 4/5) and that is fine but with a bit of shopping we could probably find better.  Its a long time to tie the money up but I think they should be 2/5 under that number if the truth be told.  Alternatively we could just bet the Rays or Red Sox for the division.  I think both have value at their best price.

There are a couple of other bets that I am mulling but not totally sure and I will post when I have done a bit more work if I think they are value.

[BigAdz]

Tidal Bay

I still think he has his own ideas, but you only have to listen to any racing programme and commentators always refer to him as an old favourite, and the money comes for him in most events.

Evidence suggests that the further he goes the more chance he has of getting involved and you know Nicholls has aimed him at the race.

I managed to get plenty of accounts to take the 25s Laddies offered a few weeks ago, but the closer it gets and no horse firing the public imagination after Cheltenham, it could be left to TB to be the one. Even the 16s still looks big to me. The front of the market will firm up for sure and with NRNB/FB first 5/6 looks a cracker to back elsewhere and lay back at /9s for a free run. I am heavily involved in another horse that I fancy to win, but for a trade and also a chance to win, this horse fits the bill.

Just cant see it not going off a lot shorter.

[BigAdz]

idiot question to answer please.  Why has Tidal Bay been given an advantage by the hcap'er when the weights were released weeks ago?  what's changed?

In simple terms he should be carrying around 12stone for his weight to match his handicap mark. As it is he only has 11.10, so he is effectively well in against his handicap mark.

If you look at the early decs on th SL website, a quick glimpse looking at the ratings probably shows it better than I explain it.

I assume he has run since the weights were published then and gone up 4lbs as a result then if his handicap mark is 4lbs higher than it was at the time the weights were published?  correct?

09Feb14      Leo 24Sft/Hy ChG1 76K   11-10   2/7 (8½L Last Instalment 11-10) 5/2   R Walsh   168

So he run up to an offical mark of 168 in this race and is allocated 161 on the national weights so he is effectively 7lbs well in??

Effectively yes, but he didnt even run/win to be rated that high, the handicapper just capped the weights at allotment time.

[redarmi]

The Grand National is a bit of a funny one for me.  Traditionally the best way to approach it was to look to bet in advance because everything just got shortened every day until until raceday especially if it was a popular trainer or jockey and I would expect that to happen to a degree still so the bet to lay is probably fine but the problem with betting so far in advance now is that with all the offers you might just miss a chunk of EV with extra places, money back if seconds etc.  It honestly wouldn't surprise me to see a firm pay 6 places this year and be 2 points bigger on the jolly.

[Rubbish2407]

Happy Birthday Tal, how old?

[Tal]

Everyone very touchy today on a quiet mudane wednesday afternoon.  Anyone would think we have all bought total sips in the speech at 3.5 for £5k a sip!!!! We had a couple of small budget good things go south and dodged another loser on the tie colour.  Hardly the end of the world and enough to be falling out over esp as every one shortened in price to what we backed it at.

Yup - & on Tal's Birthday, too!

Big happy Birthday to our Chess, Frock & Dancing Corry, Mr Posh Bloke & Resident Spurs Fan, Mr Tal.

Thanks, tikay.

Rubbish, I'm this hero's squad number:

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Happy Birthday Tal, how old?

He told me the number ended in a zero.

He looks too well for 60, so I'm guessing 50.