Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

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[horseplayer]

spot the real fan in the vip section last night

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[sonour]

Backing Toronto -1 against New Orleans tonight. NO have pulled their star player saying he's injured, looks like a shot at tanking - deliberately losing to get better draft picks. They have a protected draft pick to consider too, I've had a decent bet (for me)

Good call Jeff and another example of the fact that watching an NBA bet before the last 6 minutes of the game is basically stress without purpose.  I honestly dont understand why they don't just play two 3 minute halves and have dancing girls for the rest of the time!!!

Ha, I didn't love it for all but the last 2 mins. Wonder if they are deliberately tanking, and if so how u get the players to do so. They opened 13 for 16 so not like they came out trying to miss, but last few mins they were terrible.
Just for clarity, the point of the deliberate tank for NO is they traded away their pick in the upcoming draft, but it's 'protected', meaning if they get one of they top 6 players (I think it's top 6 protected, not sure how to find out exactly) then they get to keep the player, 7 or below and it goes to the team they traded it to (if that team misses out as NO get a top 6 player, the traded pick is rolled over til next year).
As this is a super strong draft year, probs best in 10 years, keeping your pick this year is a much better scenario, and the more games u lose, the better chance u have of getting a top pick in the lottery (the worst team gets 25% of the lottery balls, next worst 18% I think etc etc).
Defo some betting angles for teams looking to take adv of this strong draft, and defo some for teams with protected picks. Gonna investigate further!
Anyway bed time, basketball bet won, RVP bet won, was on Man U to get through thankyou Sonour and PP Messenger, which also seemed to get me a £20 freebet?!...what a good day, even if Fred was sleeping!

PS did look at NY with Jackson in the crowd but just didn't like the price, they were -1 I think, maybe +1, hoped they'd be like +5 against supposedly the best team (best record)

Jaffa, Did you have RVP with Betfred for Hat trick Heaven ?

Wild guess at no, he bet with PP.....

I think it was Man U to get through he bet with PP

[Marky147]

Backing Toronto -1 against New Orleans tonight. NO have pulled their star player saying he's injured, looks like a shot at tanking - deliberately losing to get better draft picks. They have a protected draft pick to consider too, I've had a decent bet (for me)

Good call Jeff and another example of the fact that watching an NBA bet before the last 6 minutes of the game is basically stress without purpose.  I honestly dont understand why they don't just play two 3 minute halves and have dancing girls for the rest of the time!!!

I'd probably watch more games if this was the case.

[Marky147]

Backing Toronto -1 against New Orleans tonight. NO have pulled their star player saying he's injured, looks like a shot at tanking - deliberately losing to get better draft picks. They have a protected draft pick to consider too, I've had a decent bet (for me)

Good call Jeff and another example of the fact that watching an NBA bet before the last 6 minutes of the game is basically stress without purpose.  I honestly dont understand why they don't just play two 3 minute halves and have dancing girls for the rest of the time!!!

Ha, I didn't love it for all but the last 2 mins. Wonder if they are deliberately tanking, and if so how u get the players to do so. They opened 13 for 16 so not like they came out trying to miss, but last few mins they were terrible.
Just for clarity, the point of the deliberate tank for NO is they traded away their pick in the upcoming draft, but it's 'protected', meaning if they get one of they top 6 players (I think it's top 6 protected, not sure how to find out exactly) then they get to keep the player, 7 or below and it goes to the team they traded it to (if that team misses out as NO get a top 6 player, the traded pick is rolled over til next year).
As this is a super strong draft year, probs best in 10 years, keeping your pick this year is a much better scenario, and the more games u lose, the better chance u have of getting a top pick in the lottery (the worst team gets 25% of the lottery balls, next worst 18% I think etc etc).
Defo some betting angles for teams looking to take adv of this strong draft, and defo some for teams with protected picks. Gonna investigate further!
Anyway bed time, basketball bet won, RVP bet won, was on Man U to get through thankyou Sonour and PP Messenger, which also seemed to get me a £20 freebet?!...what a good day, even if Fred was sleeping!

PS did look at NY with Jackson in the crowd but just didn't like the price, they were -1 I think, maybe +1, hoped they'd be like +5 against supposedly the best team (best record)

Jaffa, Did you have RVP with Betfred for Hat trick Heaven ?

Wild guess at no, he bet with PP.....

I think it was Man U to get through he bet with PP

I'll reply to save Adz coming out from his cave again

The coup with PP was that you would have your bet refunded (as a free bet) to a max of £100, if United didn't get through, and Van Persie FGS @ 7/2 was what he flagged as his choice for the bet.

[Tal]

He's hardly gone all Rafa Benitez! (Fact)

Was inevitable, though.

[BigAdz]

Backing Toronto -1 against New Orleans tonight. NO have pulled their star player saying he's injured, looks like a shot at tanking - deliberately losing to get better draft picks. They have a protected draft pick to consider too, I've had a decent bet (for me)

Good call Jeff and another example of the fact that watching an NBA bet before the last 6 minutes of the game is basically stress without purpose.  I honestly dont understand why they don't just play two 3 minute halves and have dancing girls for the rest of the time!!!

Ha, I didn't love it for all but the last 2 mins. Wonder if they are deliberately tanking, and if so how u get the players to do so. They opened 13 for 16 so not like they came out trying to miss, but last few mins they were terrible.
Just for clarity, the point of the deliberate tank for NO is they traded away their pick in the upcoming draft, but it's 'protected', meaning if they get one of they top 6 players (I think it's top 6 protected, not sure how to find out exactly) then they get to keep the player, 7 or below and it goes to the team they traded it to (if that team misses out as NO get a top 6 player, the traded pick is rolled over til next year).
As this is a super strong draft year, probs best in 10 years, keeping your pick this year is a much better scenario, and the more games u lose, the better chance u have of getting a top pick in the lottery (the worst team gets 25% of the lottery balls, next worst 18% I think etc etc).
Defo some betting angles for teams looking to take adv of this strong draft, and defo some for teams with protected picks. Gonna investigate further!
Anyway bed time, basketball bet won, RVP bet won, was on Man U to get through thankyou Sonour and PP Messenger, which also seemed to get me a £20 freebet?!...what a good day, even if Fred was sleeping!

PS did look at NY with Jackson in the crowd but just didn't like the price, they were -1 I think, maybe +1, hoped they'd be like +5 against supposedly the best team (best record)

Jaffa, Did you have RVP with Betfred for Hat trick Heaven ?

Wild guess at no, he bet with PP.....

I think it was Man U to get through he bet with PP

I'll reply to save Adz coming out from his cave again

The coup with PP was that you would have your bet refunded (as a free bet) to a max of £100, if United didn't get through, and Van Persie FGS @ 7/2 was what he flagged as his choice for the bet.

Where would we be without you Marky

[sonour]

Backing Toronto -1 against New Orleans tonight. NO have pulled their star player saying he's injured, looks like a shot at tanking - deliberately losing to get better draft picks. They have a protected draft pick to consider too, I've had a decent bet (for me)

Good call Jeff and another example of the fact that watching an NBA bet before the last 6 minutes of the game is basically stress without purpose.  I honestly dont understand why they don't just play two 3 minute halves and have dancing girls for the rest of the time!!!

Ha, I didn't love it for all but the last 2 mins. Wonder if they are deliberately tanking, and if so how u get the players to do so. They opened 13 for 16 so not like they came out trying to miss, but last few mins they were terrible.
Just for clarity, the point of the deliberate tank for NO is they traded away their pick in the upcoming draft, but it's 'protected', meaning if they get one of they top 6 players (I think it's top 6 protected, not sure how to find out exactly) then they get to keep the player, 7 or below and it goes to the team they traded it to (if that team misses out as NO get a top 6 player, the traded pick is rolled over til next year).
As this is a super strong draft year, probs best in 10 years, keeping your pick this year is a much better scenario, and the more games u lose, the better chance u have of getting a top pick in the lottery (the worst team gets 25% of the lottery balls, next worst 18% I think etc etc).
Defo some betting angles for teams looking to take adv of this strong draft, and defo some for teams with protected picks. Gonna investigate further!
Anyway bed time, basketball bet won, RVP bet won, was on Man U to get through thankyou Sonour and PP Messenger, which also seemed to get me a £20 freebet?!...what a good day, even if Fred was sleeping!

PS did look at NY with Jackson in the crowd but just didn't like the price, they were -1 I think, maybe +1, hoped they'd be like +5 against supposedly the best team (best record)

Jaffa, Did you have RVP with Betfred for Hat trick Heaven ?

Wild guess at no, he bet with PP.....

I think it was Man U to get through he bet with PP

I'll reply to save Adz coming out from his cave again

The coup with PP was that you would have your bet refunded (as a free bet) to a max of £100, if United didn't get through, and Van Persie FGS @ 7/2 was what he flagged as his choice for the bet.

Thanks Marky. I didn't know we discussed that on here. I did correct scores for that PP offer.

[simonnatur]

Morning all, Grand National Bet suggestion for the horse experts to shoot down...

Any Currency 66/1 BV qtr 6 places NRFB, described by a friend of Fred in 2013 as a minor place plodder (but we get a lot of places) Decent recent form at Chelt in Cross country and dbl the price of Balthazar King which it narrowly lost out to. £20 e/w?

edit: belatedly looked at Betfair market which implies either this is terrible bet or very likely non-runner - sorry pleaqse ignore

[sonour]

PP paying 6 places on all PGA Tour events from now until the Masters

PP NRNB for the National

[arbboy]

Usual darts draw bets on the closest two games of the night.  Both with unibet/888sport at 9/2. should be around 7/2 from our previous analysis.  Chis Whit is a closer game on paper therefore justifies a bigger bet at the same price as Thorn lewis.

Chis v Whit Draw 9/2 £50 win
Thorn v Lewis Draw 9/2 £30 win

Wright v Barney is currently 4/1 with all firms £30 win if any firms go 9/2 then £50 win.

[NigDawG]

Morning all, Grand National Bet suggestion for the horse experts to shoot down...

Any Currency 66/1 BV qtr 6 places NRFB, described by a friend of Fred in 2013 as a minor place plodder (but we get a lot of places) Decent recent form at Chelt in Cross country and dbl the price of Balthazar King which it narrowly lost out to. £20 e/w?

edit: belatedly looked at Betfair market which implies either this is terrible bet or very likely non-runner - sorry pleaqse ignore

this horse won't get in the race currently 66th in the weights max field of 40

[tikay]

Tighy asked me if I would post my thoughts on the upcoming MLB season and I have had a fairly long look over the last few days.  All of the Sabremetrics out there these days mean that unless you really follow the sport and understand the maths it is hard to be the best but I'm not sure the oddsmakers are that great either especially when it comes to the ante post stuff and I think there are a couple of edges.

Firstly, going back to the division that we had our bets in last year.  I think my analysis at the beginning of the season was okay and we certainly had value in the Rays and we realised the Red Sox were the real deal in time to have a saver on them.  The bet last year basically revolved around the fact that the Yankees were overbet by the market and that the BlueJays were not going to be as good as expected.    If we look at the market this year we can see that the BLue Jays were awful last year and are expected to be the same again.  The Orioles are probably about what we would expect from them as a rag too which leaves us with the Yanks, Red Sox and Rays again.  Last year the Yankees won 85 games out of 162 so about 52% of game.  They scored 616 runs and conceded 702 runs.  Teams that have that run differential should really be expected to win about 71 games.  Since then they have traded their best hitter Robinson Cano, Andy Pettite who was a very good pitcher has retired as has Mariano Rivera who is probably the best relieving pitcher ever so you should expect them to be worse yet they are still third faves for the division and fifth faves for the world series.  They have made some improvements to the team but overall most of the roster is 30+ and they just look like a team in decline to me.  I think there are a couple of ways you can bet it.  The most obvious is to bet under 87 total season wins.  It is -129 at pinnacle (a shade under 4/5) and that is fine but with a bit of shopping we could probably find better.  Its a long time to tie the money up but I think they should be 2/5 under that number if the truth be told.  Alternatively we could just bet the Rays or Red Sox for the division.  I think both have value at their best price.

There are a couple of other bets that I am mulling but not totally sure and I will post when I have done a bit more work if I think they are value.

Thanks Stu.

I've gone for the "Under 87 wins" (well, Under 86.5) with Wm Hill, & we got 10/11, so slightly better.

Gone in quite heavy - £110 @ 10/11 - but we get a lot of bet per £ for that. Perfect, thank you.

New York Yankees MLB, UNDER 86.5 Wins, £110 @ 10/11, Wm Hill, redarmi


01 Apr 2014 - Season Wins 2014 - New York Yankees

Under (86.5) @ 10/11

Stake : £110.00


Estimated Returns : £

210.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000890/F


BET PLACED

[tikay]

The MLB starts next week

Click to see full-size image.

Singhee hasn't been on for ages, unfortunately

I have asked redarmi, who gave me/us such fun on the Tampa Bay rays last season top pop his thoughts up, I hope he will

I think Singhee was a season too early on the Kansas City Royals, on whom he recommended a bet last season




I was researching away late one evening and asked a US journalist friend about the Royals

His reply was

"“Watch out for Royals. Great ‘pen, some inning-eating starters and a couple of cornerstones in Sal Perez and (Eric) Hosmer.”

basically to go deep ionto the MLB post season you need

- starting pitching (5 starters rotate, and you need depth)
- bullpen pitching (to close games out)
- defense (particularly in the infield)
- hitting (obviously)

His contention was the Royals have all four, having been a bit light on the first two at times last season


They had been built for the long haul http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article/kc/phil-rogers-royals-have-been-built-to-win-over-long-haul?ymd=20140312&content_id=69180572&vkey=news_kc because traditionally they have traded away talent (too expensive to pay) for draft picks and now one of the brightest farm systems with those draft picks are hitting the major leagues

eg

They have a candidate for rookie of the year in RHP Ventura, who is recorded in recent pre-season games at 102mph pitches

http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140312&content_id=69180828&notebook_id=69194422&vkey=notebook_kc&c_id=kc


The prices in this are skewed, much like the Broncos/Chiefs NFL bet we had (one short favourite, a couple of improving franchises), because the Tigers who went deep in the 2013 post season, are 4/9 favourites

(baseball is a game with no salary cap, so you can spend as your owner wishes, with the biggest tv markets giving the biggest budgets. so teams like the yankees, the texas, LA and major city teams tend to hoard the talent. this skews betting prices, sometimes correctly but sometimes not. eg oakland and moneyball, or smaller market teams who outperform their budget. the aim is to try to find these for 2014)

I really like unfashionable teams that are improving fast, mainly in the NFL but also other sports and often in UK betting markets wherwe you might be ahead of the curve on US Sports

So

the division

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-central/winner

I support the White Sox and they and the twins are a couple of years way. I think the Royals can challenge the Tigers at a value price in what isn't a five horse race

Recommend  £20 at 11-2 William Hill AL Central Kansas City Royals


the American League

the big guns are short here..therein lies the opportunity

Recommend £10 at 18-1 William Hill American league Kansas City Royals

Percect, thanks Rich, so we now have nice 3 bets to get us started for the Baseball Season, as I've done redarmi's one, too. 

Do we have any other MLB followers here?

£20 @ 11/2, Wm Hill, AL Central, Kansas City Royals, Tighty

£10 @ 18/1, Wm Hill, AL, Kansas City Royals, Tighty




01 Apr 2014 - American League Central - Division Winner

Kansas City Royals @ 11/2

Stake : £20.00


Estimated Returns : £

130.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000891/F



Single


01 Apr 2014 - American League - Outright - American League Outright

Kansas City Royals @ 18/1

Stake : £10.00


Estimated Returns : £

190.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000892/F

2 BETS PLACED

[tikay]

Tidal Bay

I still think he has his own ideas, but you only have to listen to any racing programme and commentators always refer to him as an old favourite, and the money comes for him in most events.

Evidence suggests that the further he goes the more chance he has of getting involved and you know Nicholls has aimed him at the race.

I managed to get plenty of accounts to take the 25s Laddies offered a few weeks ago, but the closer it gets and no horse firing the public imagination after Cheltenham, it could be left to TB to be the one. Even the 16s still looks big to me. The front of the market will firm up for sure and with NRNB/FB first 5/6 looks a cracker to back elsewhere and lay back at /9s for a free run. I am heavily involved in another horse that I fancy to win, but for a trade and also a chance to win, this horse fits the bill.

Just cant see it not going off a lot shorter.

Thanks Adzy.

As of now, most books go..... 16/1, quarter odds 4 places.

Sporting Bet go 16/1, FIVE places

BMU go 14/1 SIX places.

So how do I best proceed here? Wait a while for the other place concessions to arrive?

Need some help, please.