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redarmi
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« Reply #71775 on: March 20, 2014, 05:35:16 PM » |
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We have specifically put in a larger bet than bankroll dictates for the hedging angle.
Tiger is a special case as he will almost def be a shorter price than 10s if he plays. Also with injury doubts he is weighted towards a win rather than a place.
I would have thought with an injury he is weighted to lose......  What I'm trying to say is that he is 6-1 if he's fit. He's is 10-1 because he might start and be unable to perform/withdraw because of his back. I'd guess that half of the time he places, he wins (because he is fit and therefore 6-1). So there is much better value betting win than place. I'm really not sure this is the case. He clearly played at Doral with an injury and I would guess he may very well play at Augusta at less than 100% too. To miss the Masters I would guess he would probably have to be in pretty bad shape. I actually would guess that the chances of him playing fully fit are close to zero at this point yet the chances of him actually missing the tournament are maybe 30-40% so a lot of the time we have a runner that isn't 100%. He went off at 14-1 for the cadillac in similar circumstances. My comment is entirely related to when he starts and the merit of backing him each way when he plays. Because of the injury there is clearly a high probability if him finishing way down the field. I can't see how that would ever be a good place bet. Fair enough I misunderstood. Definitely agree with that element of it given the current dynamic. |
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BigAdz
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« Reply #71776 on: March 20, 2014, 05:37:26 PM » |
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Spurs team tonight has no defenders and one striker (and that's Soldado)
The plucky Spaniard is 10/1 FGS with BMU and Bet All Year. Really don't see how that's a fair price. Must be a bet, surely? Can even get three places with BetAllYear at 100/30.
Dominic Ball, Connor Ogilvie and Harry Winks - all 18 - on the bench for the first time tonight.
Surely 10-1 for Spurs to score at all...... |
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Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
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Doobs
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« Reply #71777 on: March 20, 2014, 05:43:40 PM » |
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Spurs team tonight has no defenders and one striker (and that's Soldado)
The plucky Spaniard is 10/1 FGS with BMU and Bet All Year. Really don't see how that's a fair price. Must be a bet, surely? Can even get three places with BetAllYear at 100/30.
Dominic Ball, Connor Ogilvie and Harry Winks - all 18 - on the bench for the first time tonight.
Presumably you think it is too short? 1 goal every 4 matches, opposition strong, playing away, no shape to the team, bunch of kids on the bench, they should be offering 5/1 anytime, bookies are stingey old sods. Or is this the Soldado from before you bought him? |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Karabiner
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« Reply #71778 on: March 20, 2014, 05:45:11 PM » |
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Spurs team tonight has no defenders and one striker (and that's Soldado)
The plucky Spaniard is 10/1 FGS with BMU and Bet All Year. Really don't see how that's a fair price. Must be a bet, surely? Can even get three places with BetAllYear at 100/30.
Dominic Ball, Connor Ogilvie and Harry Winks - all 18 - on the bench for the first time tonight.
They should really stick to what they're good at, noughts and crosses. |
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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Tal
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« Reply #71779 on: March 20, 2014, 05:46:33 PM » |
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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Karabiner
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« Reply #71780 on: March 20, 2014, 06:00:21 PM » |
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Now might be a good moment for Bubba fans to nick a price for The Masters after today's 83 at Bay Hill.
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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Doobs
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« Reply #71781 on: March 20, 2014, 06:18:10 PM » |
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If ever a hattrick was inevitable... |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Tal
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« Reply #71782 on: March 20, 2014, 06:19:44 PM » |
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Nice to see Adz, Karabiner and Doobs finding some common ground.  |
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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BigAdz
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« Reply #71783 on: March 20, 2014, 06:30:54 PM » |
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Half an hour to find that Tal.
You can't get that time back you know.
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Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
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Tal
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« Reply #71784 on: March 20, 2014, 06:31:03 PM » |
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Hsnaksbqoapalabsyaoa)#+!-@?!?!)#+!?!-#%!?!/!isnaksnaka.
That is all.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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BorntoBubble
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« Reply #71785 on: March 20, 2014, 06:42:39 PM » |
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Hsnaksbqoapalabsyaoa)#+!-@?!?!)#+!?!-#%!?!/!isnaksnaka.
That is all.
getting a good sweat for your money here tal hope he gets there for you. Its just a shame he cannot seem to finish! |
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Mark_Porter
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« Reply #71786 on: March 20, 2014, 06:53:10 PM » |
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Now might be a good moment for Bubba fans to nick a price for The Masters after today's 83 at Bay Hill.
Bokked good and proper. PP have chucked him out to 28-1. I guess I should top up a bit but going to hold for now. Adam Scott was generally a 16-1 shot for the Masters this time last week and has now shortened to 10-1 with most firms. 12-1 Bfred looks slow to adjust after his 62 joint course today. Seems likely that he will go off close to fav given he is now almost an even money shot to win the Arnold Palmer. |
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Doobs
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« Reply #71787 on: March 20, 2014, 07:11:28 PM » |
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Defoe scored twice in the first 24 minutes of his Toronto debut.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Doobs
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« Reply #71788 on: March 20, 2014, 07:17:40 PM » |
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Defoe scored twice in the first 24 minutes of his Toronto debut.
Think Spurs could do with a player like that? Ever thought of signing him? |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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doubleup
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« Reply #71789 on: March 20, 2014, 07:19:32 PM » |
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Now might be a good moment for Bubba fans to nick a price for The Masters after today's 83 at Bay Hill.
Allergy apparently - he has withdrawn. Fred was trying to get on Baldies 14-1 on Scott after everyone cut his price on his scorching 62 around Bay hill. I'm trying to work out who (from the former winners) usually plays where prior to the Masters and whether it might affect their price. Phil is apparently playing the two events, Charl usually does as well. Zach and Bubba recently haven't played. Tiger doesn't play after Bay Hill and Scott rarely. Presumably Tiger will not make his mind up till the last minute, so apart from that does anyone have any views on the potential for price movements? |
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