Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Going back to the JPT final. Ladybrokes have Danny Swanson 18/1 first goal scorer. We have limited strikers available. He may even start up top. This is an obscene price in my opinion. Would suggest. £20. Unless someone knows something?

Fergie loves having two strikers but I hope he resists this time and plays 4-4-1-1 with Swanny behind Britt. Please please please don't start Vassell!

No doubt Swanson is the value in the scorer markets again. Was gonna put him up tomorrow, but we're already on Poshies @ 11-1 to win the whole shebang and I'm just shutting my eyes and crossing my fingers tomo afternoon.

Much prefer 6-1 any time over 18-1 to score first. We were on last season at 7-1 any time and 25-1 first v Charlton, when he binked (lucky tbh, as Lawrie Wilson hit the bar for them as they owned us hard in the opening minutes), and the layers continue to underestimate him.

He's been our best player since Fatty left to join the Smoggies and Wembley will be ideal for him, picking up the ball and running at League 2 types. Think 6-1 is a cracking bet. Probably the best bet since the clocks went forward.

BOOM! Very good.

Tighty has his line now, Best Bet Of BST.

The 6/1, inevitably, during the short drive home from the Office, has now all gone, Lads down to 9/2, but I can still get 5/1 with Wm Hill.

£10 FGS @ 18/1, & maybe £25 or whatever @ 5/1 AnyTime for Glenn? Proper Glenn, not the grumpy old bloke, obv.

TO CLARIFY PLEASE

What has been placed here?

£10 FGS, anything else?

Sorry, think I forgot to confirm, but I asked Chompy & he never replied, or if he did, I missed it. Chomps suggested 6/1, I could only get 5/1, but I took it anyway.

We have, on Danny Danny Danny Swannnnnnson

FGS - £10 @ 18/1, Ladbrokes

ANYTIME - £20 @ 5/1, Wm Hill.

We also have £20 @ 11/1, Poshies to win.

[BigAdz]

Love the way Tikay sails smoothly along while storms rumble in the background, much like a clip Dennis Norden might have shown of a news presenter not flinching even though a full scale battle rages behind him!

Bravo sir!

[tikay]

Love the way Tikay sails smoothly along while storms rumble in the background, much like a clip Dennis Norden might have shown of a news presenter not flinching even though a full scale battle rages behind him!

Bravo sir!

[bobby1]

Now can you give me your thoughts on taking 3/1 on the drop goal, taking into account Sinfield's past drop goal statistics.   

no particular thoughts, as I am less attuned to RL than I am RU. As that feels like more of a cop-out of an answer than it should be I will say that i stopped doing RU drop goal stuff after your comments a while ago (Owen Farrell iirc) and that feels like a leak has been plugged. Probably the same applies to backing draws too, even for very closely matched teams

As to the racing, I take the point that it may just be "one of those years" and i might be translating adverse variance into something else . I do think there is a layman's logic to why the fundamentals of Meydan in particular and flat racing right at the start of the season might not suit the maths bets. ii guess the stats are out there (fewer favourites go in on the flat in march/april?) but its a spring sunday and other stuff awaits....!

On the racing free bets convo, is there any reason that these bets are suggested or placed so early in the day and in bulk?

The longer we let the markets develop the more info we have. One bet placed yesterday would certainly have been a different bet 30 mins before the off when Trumpet Major was drifting, probably down to stamina doubts and money for the winner. Is taking them using overnight shows just giving away too much info before we bet?

The ground at Donny yesterday was very strange, almost every race was won by horses that raced up with the pace, when betting on say the 3.15 early in the day we have no chance to take that info into account. I bet totally different horses in those races than I had intended to back earlier in the day simply because I knew something then I didn't know at 9 am. ( this isn't after timing btw, they still lost) but by betting horses that ran near the pace I was nearer to betting the winners than taking horses like Mass Rally or Levitate and other hold up horses that were at a big disadvantage.

I know the Captain isn't always around at the times he would need to be to bet race by race but the bets are likely to far better with more market/conditions info.

[BigAdz]

Now can you give me your thoughts on taking 3/1 on the drop goal, taking into account Sinfield's past drop goal statistics.   

no particular thoughts, as I am less attuned to RL than I am RU. As that feels like more of a cop-out of an answer than it should be I will say that i stopped doing RU drop goal stuff after your comments a while ago (Owen Farrell iirc) and that feels like a leak has been plugged. Probably the same applies to backing draws too, even for very closely matched teams

As to the racing, I take the point that it may just be "one of those years" and i might be translating adverse variance into something else . I do think there is a layman's logic to why the fundamentals of Meydan in particular and flat racing right at the start of the season might not suit the maths bets. ii guess the stats are out there (fewer favourites go in on the flat in march/april?) but its a spring sunday and other stuff awaits....!

On the racing free bets convo, is there any reason that these bets are suggested or placed so early in the day and in bulk?

The longer we let the markets develop the more info we have. One bet placed yesterday would certainly have been a different bet 30 mins before the off when Trumpet Major was drifting, probably down to stamina doubts and money for the winner. Is taking them using overnight shows just giving away too much info before we bet?

The ground at Donny yesterday was very strange, almost every race was won by horses that raced up with the pace, when betting on say the 3.15 early in the day we have no chance to take that info into account. I bet totally different horses in those races than I had intended to back earlier in the day simply because I knew something then I didn't know at 9 am. ( this isn't after timing btw, they still lost) but by betting horses that ran near the pace I was nearer to betting the winners than taking horses like Mass Rally or Levitate and other hold up horses that were at a big disadvantage.

I know the Captain isn't always around at the times he would need to be to bet race by race but the bets are likely to far better with more market/conditions info.

The storm breaks, the clouds part..... and finally an Elder speaks some sense.

[Chompy]

Swanny back out to 11 too to in a couple of spots to score any time at Wemberley, which is more than acceptable.

6-1 and 11-2 seem fine but I wouldn't bother at 5-1 or shorter. It's all about them odds.

[arbboy]

I agree.

I know several of the guys on here that know their stuff are selective in using these, if at all.

Maths wise, they may be correct, but race selection has to be a major part of the equation.

I don't agree.

These are purely maths bets and today the maths was good, Meydan included. I know nothing about horse racing and neither do I need to to do these bets. If the price is close to Betfair and they are below say 3/1 they are autobets.

Unless of course you think the price on Betfair is wrong ? If you do then just lay them all on Betfair and you are guaranteed to win, right ?

correct mrs bandit but that would involve saying so before the results are known!!!!!  Not one of Adz's greatest points posting before the result is known!!!

Still going Sheldon?

Its like being back at my parents as a kid, and my Mum kept playing Barry Manilow on the stereo......I wish someone would change the record, its very boring.

Aftertiming is very boring and very unproductive.  I wish you would change your record.

[BigAdz]

Thanks for the original retort Sheldon.

Inspired.

[TightEnd]

Ugh.

Hughes unsure how long injury will keep him out
 By Bill Barber 11:35AM 30 MAR 2014

RICHARD HUGHES has said he feels he could ride tomorrow but will know later this week how long the injury he sustained at Meydan on Saturday will keep him out of action for.

The champion jockey has sustained a stable fracture of a vertebra which will not require surgery but conceded he could face a number of weeks on the sidelines, although it is too early to say whether it might threaten his participation in the first Classics of the season.

Hughes was injured when his mount Mars threw him having suffered a heart attack after two furlongs of the Dubai Sheema Classic.

He said on Sunday morning: "I know I am flying home on Tuesday or Wednesday and that's the only thing they can tell me until we know everything is stable. I could be out for a week or it could be six weeks - I don't know until I get back.

"They are getting a brace for me and then they will rescan me to make sure it doesn't move and as long as it doesn't move I can go home.

"I feel like I could ride tomorrow, I'm just a bit sore. I've a few bumps and lumps on my backside but where the actual injury is is not hurting at all."



lets hope for the best

horses   2014 Flat Jockeys Championship - Handicap Betting    Richard Hughes (Scratch)    15/1   50

[tikay]

Ugh.

Hughes unsure how long injury will keep him out
 By Bill Barber 11:35AM 30 MAR 2014

RICHARD HUGHES has said he feels he could ride tomorrow but will know later this week how long the injury he sustained at Meydan on Saturday will keep him out of action for.

The champion jockey has sustained a stable fracture of a vertebra which will not require surgery but conceded he could face a number of weeks on the sidelines, although it is too early to say whether it might threaten his participation in the first Classics of the season.

Hughes was injured when his mount Mars threw him having suffered a heart attack after two furlongs of the Dubai Sheema Classic.

He said on Sunday morning: "I know I am flying home on Tuesday or Wednesday and that's the only thing they can tell me until we know everything is stable. I could be out for a week or it could be six weeks - I don't know until I get back.

"They are getting a brace for me and then they will rescan me to make sure it doesn't move and as long as it doesn't move I can go home.

"I feel like I could ride tomorrow, I'm just a bit sore. I've a few bumps and lumps on my backside but where the actual injury is is not hurting at all."



lets hope for the best

horses   2014 Flat Jockeys Championship - Handicap Betting    Richard Hughes (Scratch)    15/1   50

What an ugly sight that whole thing was, too.

Commisserations to the owners & connections of the stricken horse, too.

[tikay]

Swanny back out to 11 too to in a couple of spots to score any time at Wemberley, which is more than acceptable.

6-1 and 11-2 seem fine but I wouldn't bother at 5-1 or shorter. It's all about them odds.

Two good.

Come on Poshies!

[Doobs]

Now can you give me your thoughts on taking 3/1 on the drop goal, taking into account Sinfield's past drop goal statistics.   

no particular thoughts, as I am less attuned to RL than I am RU. As that feels like more of a cop-out of an answer than it should be I will say that i stopped doing RU drop goal stuff after your comments a while ago (Owen Farrell iirc) and that feels like a leak has been plugged. Probably the same applies to backing draws too, even for very closely matched teams

As to the racing, I take the point that it may just be "one of those years" and i might be translating adverse variance into something else . I do think there is a layman's logic to why the fundamentals of Meydan in particular and flat racing right at the start of the season might not suit the maths bets. ii guess the stats are out there (fewer favourites go in on the flat in march/april?) but its a spring sunday and other stuff awaits....!

On the racing free bets convo, is there any reason that these bets are suggested or placed so early in the day and in bulk?

The longer we let the markets develop the more info we have. One bet placed yesterday would certainly have been a different bet 30 mins before the off when Trumpet Major was drifting, probably down to stamina doubts and money for the winner. Is taking them using overnight shows just giving away too much info before we bet?

The ground at Donny yesterday was very strange, almost every race was won by horses that raced up with the pace, when betting on say the 3.15 early in the day we have no chance to take that info into account. I bet totally different horses in those races than I had intended to back earlier in the day simply because I knew something then I didn't know at 9 am. ( this isn't after timing btw, they still lost) but by betting horses that ran near the pace I was nearer to betting the winners than taking horses like Mass Rally or Levitate and other hold up horses that were at a big disadvantage.

I know the Captain isn't always around at the times he would need to be to bet race by race but the bets are likely to far better with more market/conditions info.

It is kind of tricky because the earlier you place a bet the more valuable best odds guaranteed is.   We have had some bad drifters before, but we also get horses that come flying in.

I will come back on the Meydan thing, I just haven't got the time now to look at it.  It is definitely possible it could be a bad meeting for backing favourites because of the surface and the distance travelled.  The Breeders cup is bad for English horses because of this and the drugs etc, and maybe they will always be too short just because the are English or Irish.  

The early season form was also mentioned, but races like the guineas have pretty favourable records with favourites AFAIK, so not sure there can be that much in that.  Also late in the year, the form can go to pot too, maybe something worth considering at Aintree?  Though having said all this if the horses at short enough we should have a 20% or so margin to cover things like late season form, different ground etc.  

[arbboy]

Posting Sinfields drop goal totals and then saying they are bad value makes no sense unless you take the individual games into account. Far more likely to kick one in a game with a tight Hcap or unusually low total. Just obvious he is more likely to kick one in games where Leeds are 2,4,6 points favs or small underdogs than when 20,22,24 favs. It's just looking at numbers without any thought.

It might well be that it still isn't value but the sample size being used, which is all his games isn't the number to use. If the Hcap is scratch and the total is 36( say a Grand final) then more likely than when they are playing the Broncos and 44 point favs.

He is 11/1 or something like that long run.   As alluded to in the OP, he sometimes gets them when the games aren't even that close.  Leeds are going to be playing against what I would consider top sides maybe half their games.  You may be able to make it 6/1 or so on these factors, but 3/1 looks very unlikely.   At least we are getting there even if you instinctively take the other side.

Sure, it might still be too short and my gut feeling would be it is because that kind of market usually are. But just listing his drop kick per game figures without taking obvious differences in each game is going to give a false impression too.  There was a winning bet earlier in the week on first booking in the Man Utd game and there were numbers given to present value but if you take all Man Utd games and take stats from those it will include a load of matches where Man Utd are a very short price, will have loads of possession % and other teams will be chasing games/pissed off they are losing etc. This was a game that Man Utd were underdogs at home against a team better than them so using numbers from all the games isn't the right way to look at it.

A guy that used to post NFL stuff  he steals from other people used to present them as this team are 20 and 30 away at outdoor teams after a loss of more than 10 etc when playing on a Monday lunchtime, but for example using New York Giants numbers from years when they were terrible mixed in with years when they won the Superbowl isn't correct. So there are a few examples of quoting maths where the events are vastly different to the games the numbers are being taken from.

Huge +1 to this.  This sums up a lot of bets on fred which look good given a statistical sample that doesn't matter to the bet in question.  Bobby has pretty much hit the nail on the head here.  My thoughts on this are identical.

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T.

The bottom 2 sides clash in the Aviva premiership today when Newcastle host Worcester. This is a game Worcester have to win to have a chance of staying up. They have started to improve massively since January and I think they will win this in a dour match. A key factor may well be that Newcastle are missing their captain, as well as their usual scrum half.

Suggest £20 Worcester @ 9/5 with paddy power.

By the way Mr T,we can get a whopping 1/8 on " no drop goal " in the Huddersfield v Warrington rugby league match. Anyone want to propose it?

[doubleup]

The Masters maiden bet strategy was always intended to be an arb of sorts with the added edge of each way bets providing extra value.  I had hoped to leave the bets till nearer the day for offers, but because of injuries to Tiger and now Phil, I think its best just to place a few bets now.

210 maiden winner - return 370  (bet already)

50 tiger - return 550 (bet already)

20 ew AScott - return 260 win 80 place (bet already)

24 phil prob 18 - return 432 wait till next week

12 ew bubba - return 348 win 96 place (bet now)

10 ew zach - return 340 win 92 place (bet now)

7 ew charl - return win 322 place 86 (bet now)


£20 various other 200 plussers (bet next week)

So total bet would be £402

worst scenarios would be AScott or maiden winner and no each way bets.  Best scenarios tiger plays and wins and EWs get placed OR tiger doesn't play anyone but AScott wins and a some place payouts.