Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

I think there is an angle, a tactical one

Evra is suspended and Rafael injured (off at half time v Villa) which gives United Buttner at left back but he is struggling with a hamstring. Looks like Phil Jones at right back with Smalling coming back from an injury, and the now statuesque Vidic in between.

Munich play Mandzukic up top and Ribery-Gotze and Robben as the 3 in a 4-2-3-1, with a lot of the fludity under Guardiola coming from getting these three beyond the focal striker 

Robben and Ribery wide against whoever the full backs are strikes me as where Bayern will do a lot of damage

Robben has 18 in 34 in all comps this season and 3 in 6 in europe

Ribery has 15 in 30, 3 in 6 in europe

Both are 6-1 FGS and around 2-1 anytime

not exactly earth shattering stuff, but was struggling to see the United back 5 restricting them given the selection problems

I also like Bayern -1 at 23/20 BMU

Out of interest what percentage of Bayerns goals would you expect Rooben and Ribery to score tonight? ballpark figure?

I had a figure of 1 in 5 in mind, top of my head

then went to check and saw they had 33 of Bayern's 126 in all competitions so far this season. Obviously they haven't played every game

1 in 4 seems fair on that sample

do either/both strike you as a bet given the Man U fullback injuries/tactical nuances?

[Dubai]

They defo score more than 25% goals when on pitch IMO- Ribery pen taker majority time too- the figure is higher when Muller doesn't start in midfield with them, when him and Mand both start the % would drop. Obv they are way bigger on bf than 6/1 Tighty

[Dubai]

Btw Doubleup not a dig at you as obviously it's a well thought out calculated bet. I just think lumping on maiden winner is arguably a better overall bet

[TightEnd]

Wigan are 9/5 tonight to beat Leicester

no biggie i thought, filed away as "interesting" when i looked

then get a message to say Pearson has made six changes (we play again on friday night) from the weekend

Schmeichel,De Laet,Morgan,Moore,Konchesky,Knockaert,King,Hammond,Dyer,Wood,Nugent


with wigan under Rosler going so well and minus very influential players like drinkwater and vardy, and changing two of the back four, I think wigan are a big price tonight fwiw

since he took over at Wigan only Leicester (47) and Burnley (43) have won more points than wigan (41).

they are unbeaten at home under rosler too 6 wins and 3 draws

don't think 9/5 is right with the team news

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/wigan-v-leicester/winner

[TightEnd]

They defo score more than 25% goals when on pitch IMO- Ribery pen taker majority time too- the figure is higher when Muller doesn't start in midfield with them, when him and Mand both start the % would drop. Obv they are way bigger on bf than 6/1 Tighty

thanks, noted and looking!

[doubleup]

Btw Doubleup not a dig at you as obviously it's a well thought out calculated bet. I just think lumping on maiden winner is arguably a better overall bet

As I said the point was to overbet (which didn't really happen due to tiddlearsing), so its a bit bitwixt and between.  Personally I have been covering on various players over the last month, so just feel that its fair to point that out.  

[Nico29]

Agree tighty, unforts looks like market has reacted and 9/5 is long gone.

17/10 best now, beats betfair.

[redarmi]

I think the market is overestimating the chances of goals in the Barcelona - Atletico Madrid game tonight.  The two teams have played each other three times this season and there have been two 0-0's and a 1-1 draw.  That is a sample size of 3 games I know but we can get an idea of what kind of games they were by looking at the shots on target data.  Over the 3 games there were 18 shots on target.  This is very low.  Normally you would expect a goal for every 4-4.5 shots on target.  These teams are very good so are probably a bit more efficient but the data suggests that we should probably have only expected 4.5-5 goals in those games.  In one of the games Fabregas played up front on his own but that was the only major piece of team news.  The only team news in this game is a chance that Diego Costa won't play which would be a bonus.  Added to that is the fact this is a two legged affair and they are naturally cagey in the first legs with the away teams looking to come away with a chance at home and the home team very conscious of not conceding an away goal.  There are hundreds of ways to play this but I think I will probably go for the jackpot no goalscorer bet at 14/1 or so on Betfair but think under 1.5/2.5 goals is fine too.

[Karabiner]

Btw Doubleup not a dig at you as obviously it's a well thought out calculated bet. I just think lumping on maiden winner is arguably a better overall bet

A maiden winner is now 4/9, but only bmu quoting and might have been hammered slightly.

[doubleup]

Btw Doubleup not a dig at you as obviously it's a well thought out calculated bet. I just think lumping on maiden winner is arguably a better overall bet

A maiden winner is now 4/9, but only bmu quoting and might have been hammered slightly.

freds bets are on at 4/5 and 8/11

the debate is just to let the dice fall where it will rather than cover on past winners.

[Dubai]

I like Unders in both games at the prices

[doubleup]

btw I'm particularly keen on hedging being successful as I'm fairly certain my BMU account is toast if there is a maiden winner.....

[redarmi]

I think there is an angle, a tactical one

Evra is suspended and Rafael injured (off at half time v Villa) which gives United Buttner at left back but he is struggling with a hamstring. Looks like Phil Jones at right back with Smalling coming back from an injury, and the now statuesque Vidic in between.

Munich play Mandzukic up top and Ribery-Gotze and Robben as the 3 in a 4-2-3-1, with a lot of the fludity under Guardiola coming from getting these three beyond the focal striker 

Robben and Ribery wide against whoever the full backs are strikes me as where Bayern will do a lot of damage

Robben has 18 in 34 in all comps this season and 3 in 6 in europe

Ribery has 15 in 30, 3 in 6 in europe

Both are 6-1 FGS and around 2-1 anytime

not exactly earth shattering stuff, but was struggling to see the United back 5 restricting them given the selection problems

I also like Bayern -1 at 23/20 BMU

Out of interest what percentage of Bayerns goals would you expect Rooben and Ribery to score tonight? ballpark figure?

I had a figure of 1 in 5 in mind, top of my head

then went to check and saw they had 33 of Bayern's 126 in all competitions so far this season. Obviously they haven't played every game

1 in 4 seems fair on that sample

do either/both strike you as a bet given the Man U fullback injuries/tactical nuances?

I definitely like the angle.  Pretty much no odds compiler that prices up first goalscorers puts much thought into tactics and the effect of injuries (well beyond a very rudimentary approach anyway) but I am struugling a bit to make the maths add up.  I would generally expect a striking group between them to score about 50% of the goals but this team is a bit different and probably it should be a bit higher but all told, assuming you think the game and goals prices are correct then they are going to have to be scoring about 22% of Bayerns goals each tonight to be value at the current BF prices which seems a bit on the high side but maybe not.....honestly I am not sure.  I could definitely see it being as high as 40%.

[Slykllist]

Going to try another Cycling bet for you, see if I can finally get one on the sheet!

Paris-Roubaix, Sunday April 13th - One of the finest spectacles in any sport, just an amazing and brutal race, watch it of you can!

My tip - Matti Breschel (Team Tinkoff-Saxo) to finish in the top three.  I've seen this offered on a couple of sites at 25/1 and would recommend a £10.00 bet.

Breschel had a very nasty crash early in the year and suffered some pretty serious injuries, he's still on his way back to full fitness, because of this he's not featuring amongst the favourites for this race.  The weekend just gone he finished only 27 seconds behind the leaders in Ghent-Wevelgem, just losing contact on the final climb.  This suggests he's coming back into decent form, with 2 weeks to go until Paris-Roubaix, there's a chance he can get back to his best (which is definitely good enough to be a feature in this race).  If he goes well this weekend in the Tour of Flanders I would expect his price to come in significantly so would advise getting a bet on before the weekend.

[TightEnd]

Phil Jones at right back.Muller up front for mandzukic. I like the angle more......