Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Man United and Atletico lead!

King Bok in the house ffs

I refuse to be held responsible when the entire universe is blaming Moyes!

Click to see full-size image.

Poor old Moyes, even gets the blame for the Barcelona equaliser.  Tough gig he has

[Tal]

Damn straight.

[Doobs]

Ottawa Senators update.

No idea who put this up, but thought I'd have a look to see if our bet needs its last rights reading.  But in great news for our April profit figures the Senators have won 3 on the bounce and are now only 4 points from the final play off place.  So any writing off is going to have to wait until after we have been paid on Badree.

I really know very little about the sport, but I think they have 7 games left and need to win almost all for us to have a live bet in the playoffs.

The table is here

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/standings/?alias=wildcard

There are another 6 teams not mentioned, but basically we need to catch up with Columbus and hope the other teams between them and us run bad.  I don't read every post, but think it is safe to assume Tal gave a mention to a potential bet on Toronto 8 games ago.

We play the New York Islanders this week, who appear to be a bit rubbish.  They also have one more game againt them.  I'd love to give a run down on the other teams, bit frankly I don't have a scooby.  The other games are against the Canadiens (do your worst autocorrect), Rangers, Devils, Maple Leafs and the final game is against the Penguins.  You just have to assume the last game is going to be a pushover, what were the naming monkeys thinking about there.  Presumably Vincent Tan had a hand in that one.

Edit.  Turns out the Penguins can play a bit and are top of the league.  Hopefully they'll have nowt to play for in the last game.  And the Maple Leafs and Toronto are one and the same, lets hope they can keep that losing streak going.

Anybody else can do a better job of this sweat?

[Tal]

Not been a good ten minutes. Doobs and tikay rinsing me dual format (tikay works on the channel on sky just above HUM Europe)

[Marky147]

Bollocks, I forgot it was the Aintree preview tonight!

Will it be shown again on the channel tomorrow?

[sonour]

Bollocks, I forgot it was the Aintree preview tonight!

Will it be shown again on the channel tomorrow?

Me too.

Tikay if you could post and remind us on the day that would be great. I would have liked to have watched it. Also when is the repeat please ?

[sonour]

Bet suggestion:

Double Seven 25/1 e/w in Grand National with BV NRNB, reasoning: probs a decent standalone bet, generous 6 places paid, may well start shorter on day if as PP betting suggests it is the choice of McCoy. If this was the case we might choose to lay the win part and keep the advantageous place bet? Currently 7-1 to place top 4 Betfair, we get better than 6-1 top 6 on place part.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/horse-racing-betting-tips/archive/march-2014 - there is a short write up and recommend on this page from 24th March



 

Isn't this a bit swings and roundabouts?  It is 30/32 on Betfair the win and 8.2/8.6 the place.  Because we get 6 places we effectively beat Betfair, but we lose 20% on the win part.  So I don't think the 6 places can be enough of a reason to bet.

If the Betfair market is antepost there will be a slight premium so if we assume actual win odds are 30 and the odds for each place are the same:

The return for one unit each way

win =1/30 x 26 = .87

place = 1/30 x 7.25 x 6 = 1.45

So would seem to be a reasonable bet on the assumption that the chance of being 6th is the same as winning.

 On phone, so was all in my head.

Why estimate the place odds that way when we have a place market?  We should be using mid price too?

Maths is 26/31=  0.83,  place 1/8.4 x7.25 x6/4.  Can't do that easily whilst typing, but think that gives us a loss of 17% on the win and a gain of 29% on the place.  Even then that place but is probably slightly high, as chance of 6th should be a tiny bit less than chance of 4th, which is less than chance of 1st.

So overall the gain is about 5% or 6%.  Maybe a bit less than that as there is usually a bias to the backing side on the exchange.  So a margin is there, but small, which is what I was saying.  I do a few golf bets on the 6 places etc and this would be too thin for me to place a golf bet just on the maths. 

 Of course if McCoy gets on board we should be quids in, but I assume the chance he gets on is in the price. 

I am making no view on the horse here, just saying the maths isn't really that strong here.

Hi Doobs,

Could you explain why the chance of 6th is a tiny bit less than the chance of 4th which is less than the chance of 1st please.
Not disagreeing, just trying to learn.

Thank you

Imagine a genuine 2-1 chance in a 10 runner race.  It has a 33% chance of finshing first and obviously a less than 66% chance of finishing 2nd/3rd.  In a completely random 10 runner race - every horse would have a 10% chance of finishing in any position.  Then think about the 100-1 outsider in a 10 horse race - it would be more likely to finish last than first.

So there is a skewing towards 1st place as the price gets shorter*. 

I agree with Doobs but think a) the betfair odds are slightly longer due to antepost terms and don't think the effect is very marked with the horse in question.


*With some very inconsistent horses this isn't true.

Thanks

[JaffaCake]

Long-term Freddie Jaffa Cake has permission to take a few days away from Fred.


Jeff Kimber takes no fools as he takes down PKR Live


Jeff Kimber celebrated renewing his sponsorship deal with Grosvenor Casinos by taking down the Mixed Max Main Event at Aspers Casino in Stratford, London.
 
This innovative event saw nearly 180 players pay the $500 buy-in to play over 3 very different days. Day 1 saw all entrants play a traditional full ring format but all players who made Day 2 then played a 6 Max format till only 16 players remained. At this stage play turned to a heads up format. Kimber proved the versatility of his poker prowess by remaining in the top five chip counts through-out the event until he defeated Hartlepool’s young gun, Dan O'Callaghan, in the last remaining heads up match to win the title and over £10,000 in cash.
 
Kimber is no stranger to the varying forms of Poker and has had previous successes in all 3 of the formats, including a Walsall GUKPT Main Event Title (Full ring), a first place finish in 2008’s ECOOP (6 Max) and winning the World Head’s Up Championship in Barcelona in 2007.
 
Moments after his victory he caught up with the team at Grosvenor Casinos;
 
“I feel like I'm playing better than ever. I'm planning on adding a few more trophies to the mantel piece this year and working hard with Grosvenor Casinos to make sure we both have a lot more success.

It's five years to the day since I first joined Grosvenor Casinos and I'm thrilled to win another major title for the company, hopefully one of many more to come
 
I have two days off then it's off to Edinburgh for the next leg of the GUKPT, and I can't wait to play again. The GUKPT are the best tournaments, and this leg is in one of the best, most beautiful cities in the world.”

Hiya Gramps, ty for the kind words, but no need for time off, I've been on Fred every day, not east reading on an iPhone but u have to keep up in case a pinch of gold dust is dropped by an elder. These mix max are sposed to test your all round poker skill, was blinding off waiting for the PLO round. Off to Edinburgh for the GUKPT tomoro, bang in form!

One of our basketball bets, Brooklyn, are on BT Sport tonight. But gutted their big man Brook Lopez is out for the season, coz really think they can cause a shock in the playoffs with him, they're playing much better now. Should have a winner of the Rookie of the Year by the end of the month, some good news would be very welcome for an embattled Fred at the mo

[sonour]

Bet suggestion:

Double Seven 25/1 e/w in Grand National with BV NRNB, reasoning: probs a decent standalone bet, generous 6 places paid, may well start shorter on day if as PP betting suggests it is the choice of McCoy. If this was the case we might choose to lay the win part and keep the advantageous place bet? Currently 7-1 to place top 4 Betfair, we get better than 6-1 top 6 on place part.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/horse-racing-betting-tips/archive/march-2014 - there is a short write up and recommend on this page from 24th March



 

Isn't this a bit swings and roundabouts?  It is 30/32 on Betfair the win and 8.2/8.6 the place.  Because we get 6 places we effectively beat Betfair, but we lose 20% on the win part.  So I don't think the 6 places can be enough of a reason to bet.

If the Betfair market is antepost there will be a slight premium so if we assume actual win odds are 30 and the odds for each place are the same:

The return for one unit each way

win =1/30 x 26 = .87

place = 1/30 x 7.25 x 6 = 1.45

So would seem to be a reasonable bet on the assumption that the chance of being 6th is the same as winning.

 On phone, so was all in my head.

Why estimate the place odds that way when we have a place market?  We should be using mid price too?

Maths is 26/31=  0.83,  place 1/8.4 x7.25 x6/4.  Can't do that easily whilst typing, but think that gives us a loss of 17% on the win and a gain of 29% on the place.  Even then that place but is probably slightly high, as chance of 6th should be a tiny bit less than chance of 4th, which is less than chance of 1st.

So overall the gain is about 5% or 6%.  Maybe a bit less than that as there is usually a bias to the backing side on the exchange.  So a margin is there, but small, which is what I was saying.  I do a few golf bets on the 6 places etc and this would be too thin for me to place a golf bet just on the maths. 

 Of course if McCoy gets on board we should be quids in, but I assume the chance he gets on is in the price. 

I am making no view on the horse here, just saying the maths isn't really that strong here.

Hi Doobs,

Could you explain why the chance of 6th is a tiny bit less than the chance of 4th which is less than the chance of 1st please.
Not disagreeing, just trying to learn.

Thank you

Imagine a genuine 2-1 chance in a 10 runner race.  It has a 33% chance of finshing first and obviously a less than 66% chance of finishing 2nd/3rd.  In a completely random 10 runner race - every horse would have a 10% chance of finishing in any position.  Then think about the 100-1 outsider in a 10 horse race - it would be more likely to finish last than first.

So there is a skewing towards 1st place as the price gets shorter*. 

I agree with Doobs but think a) the betfair odds are slightly longer due to antepost terms and don't think the effect is very marked with the horse in question.


*With some very inconsistent horses this isn't true.

Yeah predicting actual place probabilities is more of an art than a science imo.  There are place calculators online and some of the best academic minds have had a go at it yet none have really got it right because you have to consider factors other than the simple maths of the situation.  For example if you have a horse in a maiden race that finished 2nd beating the 3rd by 5 lengths in a Newmarket maiden last time out but has since got injured and hasn't raced for 456 days.  On that form is it is a 2/1 shot today.  Normal each way terms would dictate that that horse is a 2/5 shot to finish placed but the fact of the matter is that it is probably as likely to finish last as it is to finish first (that is a slight exaggeration) because it is either going to be 100% fit and able to run up to its previous form, in which case it wins, or it isn't and will finish down the field and maybe be retired.  In that scenario the chances it finished second are much smaller than a horse who ran a similar race a couple of weeks ago and can reasonably be expected to run to its form.  This applies across sports.  Last year Sebastian Vettel starting on pole was as likely to not finish a grand prix as he was to finish 3rd.  This is why having a decent fundamental understanding of the sports is important.

I don't really think what I am saying needs this level of detail.  The horse is 30/1 to finish first and bigger than 30/1 to finish last.  The most likely distribution is that it is slightly bigger than 30/1 to finish 2nd and slightly bigger than that to finish 3rd.  I could go a bit crazy and build a model bringing in ground, fences and likelihood of falling at them, distance etc, but don't think it adds much.  If it was a flat race, I'd be a bit more confident on the maths of this, but it is clear some horses are going to be more likely fallers than others, so you might get horses that are real 25/1 to finish first, but also real 25/1 shots to be first faller.

I think worrying about all that definitely feels like a bit of spurious detail, and it is just useful to know the horse is a bit less likely to be 2nd than first and that is likely to be more pronounced the shorter a horse is.  And once you get beyond genuine 40/1 chances, you are likely to find horses that are more likely to be 2nd than 1st.

FWIW I think the Paddy Power price is slightly better than I implied above, as they will be NRNB and I doubt Betfair are. 

 

I asked the question not because of the topic being discussed but because I do a number of offers where I need to estimate the chance say a horse finishing in 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place.

[Tal]

Tekkers, Mr Kimber.

Kobe's wounded

[maldini32]

Can't work out if this is a great bet or not.

Tom Cooper top batsman @ 5/2. He's in front by 61 runs.

All the players I'd imagine would be in for between 34-38 runs(ish) on the spreads.

Some of these players will be knocked out after the semi's.

One for the maths guys.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/world-t20/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=8083;type=tournament

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/top-batsman

[Longy]

Ottawa Senators update.

No idea who put this up, but thought I'd have a look to see if our bet needs its last rights reading.  But in great news for our April profit figures the Senators have won 3 on the bounce and are now only 4 points from the final play off place.  So any writing off is going to have to wait until after we have been paid on Badree.

I really know very little about the sport, but I think they have 7 games left and need to win almost all for us to have a live bet in the playoffs.

The table is here

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/standings/?alias=wildcard

There are another 6 teams not mentioned, but basically we need to catch up with Columbus and hope the other teams between them and us run bad.  I don't read every post, but think it is safe to assume Tal gave a mention to a potential bet on Toronto 8 games ago.

We play the New York Islanders this week, who appear to be a bit rubbish.  They also have one more game againt them.  I'd love to give a run down on the other teams, bit frankly I don't have a scooby.  The other games are against the Canadiens (do your worst autocorrect), Rangers, Devils, Maple Leafs and the final game is against the Penguins.  You just have to assume the last game is going to be a pushover, what were the naming monkeys thinking about there.  Presumably Vincent Tan had a hand in that one.

Edit.  Turns out the Penguins can play a bit and are top of the league.  Hopefully they'll have nowt to play for in the last game.  And the Maple Leafs and Toronto are one and the same, lets hope they can keep that losing streak going.

Anybody else can do a better job of this sweat?

Nah that is pretty good summary! They have changed the whole division playoff setup in the NHL this season and it is making my head hurt. I think only the Rangers, Canadiens and the Penguins are anything to write home about and the Penguins are are already in the playoffs so the game will mean nothing to them.

[cheapwetsuit]

Can't work out if this is a great bet or not.

Tom Cooper top batsman @ 5/2. He's in front by 61 runs.

All the players I'd imagine would be in for between 34-38 runs(ish) on the spreads.

Some of these players will be knocked out after the semi's.

One for the maths guys.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/world-t20/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=8083;type=tournament

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/top-batsman

Leave well alone. You will notice that Tom Cooper has played 7 matches, which include Netherlands' qualifying games. Most (all?) bookies only pay out on runs scored from the group stage onwards. Read the small print to make sure. As a result, Kohli is currently top of the runscorer charts ... and hence favourite. Someone is probably just trying to make a shady dollar on betfair by posting Cooper at 5/2 ... imo.

[Rubbish2407]

The match was talked up in the press.



Rumours abounded that Bayern weren't taking it seriously.



Once it started you couldn't take your eyes off it.

Click to see full-size image.

Rooney was jubilant after the game.



Moyes had a simple message for his detractors.

Click to see full-size image.

Elsewhere, Messi failed to score.



We have a live 33/1 shot in the T20.

Click to see full-size image.

Slykllist gives us a 25/1 shot for Paris-Roubaix



In the famous fans series 'Boro unveil a surprising addition.

Click to see full-size image.

Tiger is out of the Masters.



Liverpool go top.

Click to see full-size image.

A Fred hero gives the lowdown on the National whilst some old timer takes a nap.

Click to see full-size image.

If there's one thing I wish I could do it would be this.



Later.

[maldini32]

Can't work out if this is a great bet or not.

Tom Cooper top batsman @ 5/2. He's in front by 61 runs.

All the players I'd imagine would be in for between 34-38 runs(ish) on the spreads.

Some of these players will be knocked out after the semi's.

One for the maths guys.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/world-t20/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=8083;type=tournament

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/top-batsman

Leave well alone. You will notice that Tom Cooper has played 7 matches, which include Netherlands' qualifying games. Most (all?) bookies only pay out on runs scored from the group stage onwards. Read the small print to make sure. As a result, Kohli is currently top of the runscorer charts ... and hence favourite. Someone is probably just trying to make a shady dollar on betfair by posting Cooper at 5/2 ... imo.

Beteveryday include all the matches