Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Can't work out if this is a great bet or not.

Tom Cooper top batsman @ 5/2. He's in front by 61 runs.

All the players I'd imagine would be in for between 34-38 runs(ish) on the spreads.

Some of these players will be knocked out after the semi's.

One for the maths guys.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/world-t20/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=8083;type=tournament

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/top-batsman

Guess the reason for the price is that either Amla or Kohli will get 2 innings to shoot him down, as they meet in the semi finals.  They need about 70 to overtake him.  Their spread prices for each of their 2 innings would be around the late 30s given standard T20 scenarios so on that basis the guy who bats twice would be expected to overtake him?  I guess Rohit Sharma is the other runner as he opens for India and is 100 back. 

As you say this can be modelled if anyone has time using the batsmen spread mids for each match, and match odds in the semi finals.  Will need some assumptions to be made though.  Just feel like I'd rather be on Kohli than Cooper at the same price, but happy to be proved wrong.

I think all games count. that was my assumption on badree and other stuff in bowling markets

He is 61 ahead of Kohli and 68 ahead of Amla. Only one of these players can make the final and play two games to score 61/68 but one will play two games

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/world-t20/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=8083;type=tournament

beyond that we are looking at rohit sharma 84 behind

At dhaka, on spinning slow/low pitches, against (probably) the sri lankans in the final its not going to be easy to score 61 in two games

there must be a strong chance of a low scoring semi-final or final on worn tired pitches (there squares are not big, pitches re-used repeatedly)

i thought 5/2 was a good price that cooper would hold on

Just thinking about it another way - What odds would you give me if I wanted to bet that any one of Kohli, Rohit or Amla would score a half century in their semi final?

[TightEnd]

Can't work out if this is a great bet or not.

Tom Cooper top batsman @ 5/2. He's in front by 61 runs.

All the players I'd imagine would be in for between 34-38 runs(ish) on the spreads.

Some of these players will be knocked out after the semi's.

One for the maths guys.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/world-t20/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=8083;type=tournament

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/top-batsman

Guess the reason for the price is that either Amla or Kohli will get 2 innings to shoot him down, as they meet in the semi finals.  They need about 70 to overtake him.  Their spread prices for each of their 2 innings would be around the late 30s given standard T20 scenarios so on that basis the guy who bats twice would be expected to overtake him?  I guess Rohit Sharma is the other runner as he opens for India and is 100 back. 

As you say this can be modelled if anyone has time using the batsmen spread mids for each match, and match odds in the semi finals.  Will need some assumptions to be made though.  Just feel like I'd rather be on Kohli than Cooper at the same price, but happy to be proved wrong.

I think all games count. that was my assumption on badree and other stuff in bowling markets

He is 61 ahead of Kohli and 68 ahead of Amla. Only one of these players can make the final and play two games to score 61/68 but one will play two games

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/world-t20/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=8083;type=tournament

beyond that we are looking at rohit sharma 84 behind

At dhaka, on spinning slow/low pitches, against (probably) the sri lankans in the final its not going to be easy to score 61 in two games

there must be a strong chance of a low scoring semi-final or final on worn tired pitches (there squares are not big, pitches re-used repeatedly)

i thought 5/2 was a good price that cooper would hold on

Just thinking about it another way - What odds would you give me if I wanted to bet that any one of Kohli, Rohit or Amla would score a half century in their semi final?

the three of them have 5 fifties in 12 combined innings so far this competition

reduce the likelihood a bit because they'll be up against steyn/tahir or mishra/ashwin/jadeja and the pitches might be lower and I'll say 1 in 3. finger in the air job.

[tikay]

Going to try another Cycling bet for you, see if I can finally get one on the sheet!

Paris-Roubaix, Sunday April 13th - One of the finest spectacles in any sport, just an amazing and brutal race, watch it of you can!

My tip - Matti Breschel (Team Tinkoff-Saxo) to finish in the top three.  I've seen this offered on a couple of sites at 25/1 and would recommend a £10.00 bet.

Breschel had a very nasty crash early in the year and suffered some pretty serious injuries, he's still on his way back to full fitness, because of this he's not featuring amongst the favourites for this race.  The weekend just gone he finished only 27 seconds behind the leaders in Ghent-Wevelgem, just losing contact on the final climb.  This suggests he's coming back into decent form, with 2 weeks to go until Paris-Roubaix, there's a chance he can get back to his best (which is definitely good enough to be a feature in this race).  If he goes well this weekend in the Tour of Flanders I would expect his price to come in significantly so would advise getting a bet on before the weekend.

Morning Simon.

Sorry I never replied before, but, as you know, things were a bit warm next door yesterday.

OK, let's see if we can get you off the mark, we are safely aboard, via Unibet. Good luck, & remind us nearer the time please, as to where we might watch it on TV, or get in-race updates.



Paris - Roubaix 2014

Breschel, M

26.00

Stake

10.00

Odds

26.00

Payout

260.00


BET PLACED

[Karabiner]

If Fred fancies a proper banzai for the ladies' golf this week I would suggest a cheeky Lady Godiva EW on Eun Hee-Ji @125/1.

No love for this selection in this year's first ladies' golf major?

[TightEnd]

I have written up both T20 Semis, just fyi

1 Sri Lanka v West Indies (we are on Sri Lanka and Badree. Senanayake is an interesting price on this pitch)

Srii Lanka and the West Indies play the first T20 Cricket World Cup Semi-Final in Dhaka on Thursday. Two strong teams, with similiar strengths. It promises to be a classic

Recommendations

Sri Lanka to win at 4/5 BetVictor

Top Sri Lanka bowler Sachithra Senanayake 9/2 888Sport

Top West Indies bowler Samuel Badree 3/1 William Hill

Group A winners Sri Lanka and Group B runners up West Indies both won their final games to qualify for the semi-finals in similar fashion batting first and then spinning their way to victory on dry, slow pitches.

Both teams have similar strengths

- Destructive top order batting (Gayle, Perera, notably)
- Experienced finishers (Sammy and Chandimal)
- Top class spin options (Sri Lanka have 4 including Mendis and Herath, West Indies 3 including Narine and Badree)

and we should expect an exciting close game. Sri Lanka are priced as 4/5 favourites, West Indies 11/10. I feel Sri Lanka have an advantage in two areas that may help them win a tight game

a) Middle order batting, if required to steady the ship after an uncertain start against spin is stronger for Sri Lanka with the very experienced Jayawardene and Sangakkara more reliable than the West Indies middle order
b) Lasith Malinga gives a dangerous death fast bowler option for the end of an innings that the West Indies lack

I would suggest that in areas like spin bowling and big hitting the two sides are a “push” and on Sri Lanka’s advantages in the two areas above make them favourites

In terms of sub-markets there is an opportunity in each “Top Bowler” market

For the West Indies the leg spinner Samuel Badree opens the bowling, when the batsmen are looking to attack. No opponent has yet managed to pick his “wrong un” that spins the other way and he has taken 10 wickets so far this competition, 4 ahead of his nearest team-mate Narine with 6. Narine bowls mid-to-end-innings and opportunities for wickets tend to be fewer with at least part of his overs often against established batsmen. Yet William Hill offer us 3/1 Badree and 9/4 Narine, prices built around reputation and name rather than form and team strategy. Badree is a bet to be West Indies top bowler at 3/1

For Sri Lanka the puzzle is tougher, as all the spinners Mendis, Herath and Senanayake are wicket-takers. Kulasakera the seamer has 6 wickets in the competition, but conditions in Dhaka will be less favourable than in damp Chittagong.

Herath bowled first against the West Indies and took five wickets on a very dry pitch in Chittagong. Mendis, like Narine, bowls later in innings which leaves us with off-spinner Senanayake, who bowls first change, also has a wrong’un and who the West Indies have never faced. In the tournament overall Herath has 5 wickets, Senanayake 4 and Mendis 3 yet top bowler prices tell us a different story

Herath 11/4
Mendis 3/1
Senanayake 9/2
(Malinga 5/2 Kulasakera 4/1)

the clear value here is Senanayake at 9/2 with 888Sport, as the priced outsider of the three Sri Lanka spinners in conditions that will suit them far more than the group game pitches.

2 India v South Africa (I like the Duminy bet, as I think SA may lose a couple of early wickets to spin)

The second T20 World Cup semi final on Friday sees Dhaka group winners India play Chittagong runners up South Africa

Recommendations

India to win at 4/6 PaddyPower

Shikhar Dhawan Top India Batsman 7/2 PaddyPower

JP Duminy Top South African batsman 8/1 PaddyPower

India have been in imperious form in this tournament, winning their group unbeaten and are clearly a very strong team with one of the strongest batting line ups in the tournament and a range of top spinners against whom all four group opponents struggled. They are currently favourites to win the tournament.

Conditions in Dhaka suit their team. Dry, slower pitches that grip for the slower bowlers and having played on these pitches is going to be a marked advantage versus South Africa, who played in the damp conditions of Chittagong

South Africa have one quality spin option, Imran Tahir but in terms of team composition (seam bowlers) look less suited to Dhaka than India. To win, South Africa will need to combat India's range of spin options and will be encouraged by the superb performance of the top world batsman in this format, AB DeVilliers in the final group game where his 69 off 26 balls against England was the difference between the two sides. They will also need their star bowler Dale Steyn to restrict the India batting at key moments in the innings. Aside from these two players and Amla though, man for man India look stronger in this format.

India are 4/6 outright for the game, which is understandable given their form and the location of the game. I expect them to win.

In the sub-markets India's key opportunity will be batting in the powerplay against South Africa's seamers, with Steyn typically kept for the death overs later in the innings and the sole spinner Imran Tahir bowling no earlier than the seventh over once the powerplay has finished.

In the top India batsman market this would point us towards the top three of Dhawan, Rohit Sharma and Kohli having the best opportunites. Any of these are capable of compiling a big score but the value in the markets at 7/2 ( 3/1 or less being offered for Kohli and Sharma) with PaddyPower is the dangerous Shikhar Dhawan

For South Africa the batting challenge is rather different, as one spinner will take the new ball and normally two Indian spinners bowl in the first six over powerplay.

Amla is a superb player of spin but with one T20 fifty in his career has a more measured style that seems at odds with him being 3-1 favourite in the Top South Africa batsman market. After his last innings De Villiers is into 3-1 too.

With DeKock opening and out of form this creates a value opportunity for a batsman like JP Duminy, a good player of spin with big hitting potential who PaddyPower offer at 8-1 in this market. This bet is really in play if South Africa lose early wickets to spin, a strong possibility

[simonnatur]

McCoy says he leans towards Double Seven in National and somewhat mysteriously there is money to back at 23-1 on Betfair, whilst 25-1 still available with several firms according to oddschecker.

[tikay]

If Fred fancies a proper banzai for the ladies' golf this week I would suggest a cheeky Lady Godiva EW on Eun Hee-Ji @125/1.

No love for this selection in this year's first ladies' golf major?

Hi Methuselah,

Sorry, missed it originally.

Here's the Market.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/kraft-nabisco-championship/winner

Be nice to be on a golf Major, but what's the reasoning, other than you think she's value?

Be interested in views from our other Ladies Golf Experts, too, (Mere, obv), bobby & 2xUp amongst others. 

[Doobs]

Bet suggestion:

Double Seven 25/1 e/w in Grand National with BV NRNB, reasoning: probs a decent standalone bet, generous 6 places paid, may well start shorter on day if as PP betting suggests it is the choice of McCoy. If this was the case we might choose to lay the win part and keep the advantageous place bet? Currently 7-1 to place top 4 Betfair, we get better than 6-1 top 6 on place part.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/horse-racing-betting-tips/archive/march-2014 - there is a short write up and recommend on this page from 24th March



 

Isn't this a bit swings and roundabouts?  It is 30/32 on Betfair the win and 8.2/8.6 the place.  Because we get 6 places we effectively beat Betfair, but we lose 20% on the win part.  So I don't think the 6 places can be enough of a reason to bet.

If the Betfair market is antepost there will be a slight premium so if we assume actual win odds are 30 and the odds for each place are the same:

The return for one unit each way

win =1/30 x 26 = .87

place = 1/30 x 7.25 x 6 = 1.45

So would seem to be a reasonable bet on the assumption that the chance of being 6th is the same as winning.

 On phone, so was all in my head.

Why estimate the place odds that way when we have a place market?  We should be using mid price too?

Maths is 26/31=  0.83,  place 1/8.4 x7.25 x6/4.  Can't do that easily whilst typing, but think that gives us a loss of 17% on the win and a gain of 29% on the place.  Even then that place but is probably slightly high, as chance of 6th should be a tiny bit less than chance of 4th, which is less than chance of 1st.

So overall the gain is about 5% or 6%.  Maybe a bit less than that as there is usually a bias to the backing side on the exchange.  So a margin is there, but small, which is what I was saying.  I do a few golf bets on the 6 places etc and this would be too thin for me to place a golf bet just on the maths. 

 Of course if McCoy gets on board we should be quids in, but I assume the chance he gets on is in the price. 

I am making no view on the horse here, just saying the maths isn't really that strong here.

Hi Doobs,

Could you explain why the chance of 6th is a tiny bit less than the chance of 4th which is less than the chance of 1st please.
Not disagreeing, just trying to learn.

Thank you

Imagine a genuine 2-1 chance in a 10 runner race.  It has a 33% chance of finshing first and obviously a less than 66% chance of finishing 2nd/3rd.  In a completely random 10 runner race - every horse would have a 10% chance of finishing in any position.  Then think about the 100-1 outsider in a 10 horse race - it would be more likely to finish last than first.

So there is a skewing towards 1st place as the price gets shorter*. 

I agree with Doobs but think a) the betfair odds are slightly longer due to antepost terms and don't think the effect is very marked with the horse in question.


*With some very inconsistent horses this isn't true.

Yeah predicting actual place probabilities is more of an art than a science imo.  There are place calculators online and some of the best academic minds have had a go at it yet none have really got it right because you have to consider factors other than the simple maths of the situation.  For example if you have a horse in a maiden race that finished 2nd beating the 3rd by 5 lengths in a Newmarket maiden last time out but has since got injured and hasn't raced for 456 days.  On that form is it is a 2/1 shot today.  Normal each way terms would dictate that that horse is a 2/5 shot to finish placed but the fact of the matter is that it is probably as likely to finish last as it is to finish first (that is a slight exaggeration) because it is either going to be 100% fit and able to run up to its previous form, in which case it wins, or it isn't and will finish down the field and maybe be retired.  In that scenario the chances it finished second are much smaller than a horse who ran a similar race a couple of weeks ago and can reasonably be expected to run to its form.  This applies across sports.  Last year Sebastian Vettel starting on pole was as likely to not finish a grand prix as he was to finish 3rd.  This is why having a decent fundamental understanding of the sports is important.

I don't really think what I am saying needs this level of detail.  The horse is 30/1 to finish first and bigger than 30/1 to finish last.  The most likely distribution is that it is slightly bigger than 30/1 to finish 2nd and slightly bigger than that to finish 3rd.  I could go a bit crazy and build a model bringing in ground, fences and likelihood of falling at them, distance etc, but don't think it adds much.  If it was a flat race, I'd be a bit more confident on the maths of this, but it is clear some horses are going to be more likely fallers than others, so you might get horses that are real 25/1 to finish first, but also real 25/1 shots to be first faller.

I think worrying about all that definitely feels like a bit of spurious detail, and it is just useful to know the horse is a bit less likely to be 2nd than first and that is likely to be more pronounced the shorter a horse is.  And once you get beyond genuine 40/1 chances, you are likely to find horses that are more likely to be 2nd than 1st.

FWIW I think the Paddy Power price is slightly better than I implied above, as they will be NRNB and I doubt Betfair are. 

 

I asked the question not because of the topic being discussed but because I do a number of offers where I need to estimate the chance say a horse finishing in 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place.

I think the maths behind this really needs to be on the maths in betting thread, as you need to use Bayesian probabilities.  To "correctly" work out the probability of something finishing 2nd you need to work out the probability it is 2nd to each of the other horses.  You can build those up from the Betfair odds for first for each horse.  Probability horse B is 2nd to horse A = probability horse A wins x probability horse B is 2nd given A wins.  By the time you get to 5th you are going to need a big spreadsheet with nested probabilities.

You can get round this by assuming that the place odds are going to be about right most of the time if liquidity is strong.  I can assume this as people like this exist http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeljko_Ranogajec.  If the market is big and liquid I assume somebody has built a decent model that they are using on Betfair or that the prices are just going to be about right because of the wisdom of crowds.

So if I have a Betfair price on top 4, I can just estimate top 5 by just multiplying that equivalent probability by 5/4.  

Of course this kind of thing falls apart if you have a 1/2 horse, 3 at 6/1 and everything else 33/1+, but you should be able to have a good guess when it falls over with some basic betting common sense if you profitably gamble on horses.

If you want more of the Bayesian stuff ask on the maths in betting thread and will reply given a large amount of free time.

[DungBeetle]

I know it's a rather randomising format, but 4/6 feels like a mighty price on India.  I reckon they win this 8 times out of 10 on this pitch.

[Karabiner]

If Fred fancies a proper banzai for the ladies' golf this week I would suggest a cheeky Lady Godiva EW on Eun Hee-Ji @125/1.

No love for this selection in this year's first ladies' golf major?

Hi Methuselah,

Sorry, missed it originally.

Here's the Market.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/kraft-nabisco-championship/winner

Be nice to be on a golf Major, but what's the reasoning, other than you think she's value?

Be interested in views from our other Ladies Golf Experts, too, (Mere, obv), bobby & 2xUp amongst others.  

She seemed to be on the leaderboard every week a few years ago and has had a couple of quiet seasons but she has been showing signs of life again this year and I reckon that she's still somewhat under the radar.

<edit> Not a c+d winner as previously posted but some decent previous form including a T11th in 2012.

[Tal]

Barcelona get a transfer ban for 12 months from FIFA for registration breaches. So they have no defence and no keeper next year. Any prices for 14/15 about?

[doubleup]

You can build those up from the Betfair odds for first for each horse.  Probability horse B is 2nd to horse A = probability horse A wins x probability horse B is 2nd given A wins.  

I did this on a spreadsheet for 3 places linked to a live feed of Betfair odds, my cpu very much appreciated it.

[TightEnd]

It's the Heineken Cup Quarters this weekend

4 fantastic games, and my preview is up tomorrow


We have three top try scorer bets outstanding

10-Oct   TightEnd   Ladbrokes   May-2014   RU   Heineken Cup top try scorer   Nalaga   10/1   30
10-Oct   TightEnd   Coral   May-2014   RU   Heineken Cup top try scorer   Gear   16/1   10
10-Oct   TightEnd   Coral   May-2014   RU   Heineken Cup top try scorer   Medard   28/1   10

the current scores on the doors are


7
Chris Ashton
5
Naipolioni Nalaga
4
Miles Benjamin
4
Maxime Médard
4
David Strettle
4
Chris Wyles
3
Pierre Berard
3
Mike Brown
3
Alex Cuthbert
3
Luke Fitzgerald


Looking at how we are placed

Nalaga for Clermont, the current tournament favourites are 1/6 at home to Leicester. French teams are a far more formidable prospect at home than away and Leicester shouldn't beat them

Ashton and Saracens play at Ulster. Ulster are a formidable side at home, and qualified top ranked for the quarters beating Leicester home and away in the pool.

Whether we have a chance here revolves around Clermont winning, and Saracens getting knocked out, such that Clermont play more games in the competition.


Medard plays for Toulouse, probably the weakest of the three French quarter-finalists, who have to go to Munster. I would expect Munster to win, cover the handicap and thus our Medard bet is up against it

Gear has spent most of the competition on the Toulouse bench

Realistically therefore we are cheering on Nalaga, and Ulster and then we have a shot from the semi-finals onwards


the four quarters are

ULSTER RUGBY v SARACENS   Ulster 1/2 handicap -3

ASM CLERMONT AUVERGNE v LEICESTER TIGERS Clermont 1/6 handicap -11

TOULON v LEINSTER RUGBY Toulon 1/2 handicap -5

MUNSTER RUGBY v TOULOUSE Munster 8/13 handicap -3

[aaron1867]

Leicester V Wednesday

Leicester not so consistent these days, dropping a few points here & there & whilst they are comfortable better than Wednesday, I wouldn't say 7/1 for us to go there and beat them. They've recently played Tuesday v Yeovil, Saturday v Burnley & ysterday v Wigan. That squad could wo tih a rest & a Friday game must be absolutely horrible for them.

I think it shows you are more than capable of getting a result there - Yeovil nearly did & the tiredness must be kicking in.

7/1 in one place only with Boyles, recc £10

[TightEnd]

Leicester V Wednesday

Leicester not so consistent these days, dropping a few points here & there & whilst they are comfortable better than Wednesday, I wouldn't say 7/1 for us to go there and beat them. They've recently played Tuesday v Yeovil, Saturday v Burnley & ysterday v Wigan. That squad could wo tih a rest & a Friday game must be absolutely horrible for them.

I think it shows you are more than capable of getting a result there - Yeovil nearly did & the tiredness must be kicking in.

7/1 in one place only with Boyles, recc £10

Leicester rested six players last night (including the fantastic Drinkwater and James who run midfield in every championship game they play), and took Nugent and Knockaert off after less than an hour

I expected Wigan to win, backed them to do so and Leicester nicked a late point. Now 20 games unbeaten and very close

If we win on Friday, and QPR/Derby fail to win on Saturday (at Bournemouth and Middlesborough respectively) we are up

Leicester will win