Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

I think the surface issue is over-rated these days.

Someone like Berdych/Wawrinka would smash Fognini to pieces.  But 100-1 is 100-1 I suppose.

Fognini has a 2-1 winning record over Berdych winning both matches on clay but losing on a hard court.

Against Wawrinka he is losing 4-1 with all matches played on clay, however in their last meeting, in 2013, he won and this was their first meeting for 2 years.

I actually think that the surface is more important than ever now. Murray has won oodles of titles over the years but has never won on clay and has never even reached a final. Fognini showed yesterday that the type of shot you can play on clay, and the movement required is completely different to a hard surface.

It's hard to argue that surface is more of a factor than 10/15 years ago.  The reason for this is that grass/hard courts were slowed down as it was perceived that longer rallies were desirable.  Remember the days when the likes of Moya/Agassi would boycott Wimbledon with mystery injuries?  Money talks, and the organisers want as much of the field involved as possible so surfaces are becoming more uniform which is a shame.  Of course the movement required on clay is still different but the extent of the difference is significantly less.

[arbboy]

I think the surface issue is over-rated these days.

Someone like Berdych/Wawrinka would smash Fognini to pieces.  But 100-1 is 100-1 I suppose.

Fognini has a 2-1 winning record over Berdych winning both matches on clay but losing on a hard court.

Against Wawrinka he is losing 4-1 with all matches played on clay, however in their last meeting, in 2013, he won and this was their first meeting for 2 years.

I actually think that the surface is more important than ever now. Murray has won oodles of titles over the years but has never won on clay and has never even reached a final. Fognini showed yesterday that the type of shot you can play on clay, and the movement required is completely different to a hard surface.

It's hard to argue that surface is more of a factor than 10/15 years ago.  The reason for this is that grass/hard courts were slowed down as it was perceived that longer rallies were desirable.  Remember the days when the likes of Moya/Agassi would boycott Wimbledon with mystery injuries?  Money talks, and the organisers want as much of the field involved as possible so surfaces are becoming more uniform which is a shame.  Of course the movement required on clay is still different but the extent of the difference is significantly less.

I think the key factor here is not whether Fog should be 100/1 but whether murray shouldn't also be close to 100/1.  He will never go off that price but i think it's more a case Muzza is massively under priced rather than Fog being too big. You could make a case for him going off 40/1 from 100/1 but the reality is that means he has gone from a 1% chance to win to 2.5% chance and for that to happen you would imagine he would have to win/final at least one of the dirt ball masters in the next month.  The other thing with the vast majority of dirt ball form outside of the early spring clay euro swing of the atp tour leading up to the French open is that the vast majority of the top players don't play the other clay court events around the year esp in South America so Fog's clay court record isn't exactly franked against the key players he will likely face during the major clay court season when all the big boys come out to play.

[TightEnd]

Eurovision rec incoming...

Stick this one up on Betty and leave it hanging.

Go to Semi Final 1, 'To qualify' market and back Iceland. Ask for £30  @ 5 and leave it there. Fair chance it will get matched between now and ESC week.

placed and waiting

 Waiting (unmatched)
At In-PlayCancelKeep
Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
Semi Final 1
Iceland To Qualify    5    £30.00    
£120.00
Ref: 36014264682 Submitted: 12:51 07-Apr-14

[DungBeetle]

Agree Murray should also be touching 100/1, but to think of it another way for Fog

Let's say the semis are Djokovic v Wawrinka, and Foggnini v Nadal.

Fog will be 7/1 dog (probably more) in both games he plays if Nadal and Djokovic.  Discount a bit for him being shorter if Wawa beats Djok and he's still a 40/1 shot at this stage.  Makes 100/1 at the outset seem skinny to me given he has to win 5 games to get to this point, one of which is likely to be a coinflip against a player like Ferrer/Almugro/Berdych/Murray etc.

Happy to be corrected, but I think the majority of outsiders are bad value in a tennis outright market.

[Marky147]

Think Navas needs to look lively in the last few weeks, or we're done for!

[scotty2hatty]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabio_Fognini

Def handy on clay.

But world ranked number 68.

150-1 would tempt me if it wasn't with youwindontgetpaidanyway.

Might stick a very small ew bet on at 100-1 anyway for the craic.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens/mens-french-open/winner

He did look v good beating murray today.

He's 13th in the world. Wiki is not your friend on this occasion.

[Marky147]

From http://www.nba.com/rookie-ladder/


With just two weeks left in the season, can anyone catch Michael Carter-Williams?

The Sixers' guard has a solid resume, leading all rookies in virtually every major category -- points (16.5), rebounds (6.1), assists (6.3) and steals (2.0).

But will the voters look at the Sixers' dismal record or MCW's subpar shooting numbers (39.3 overall, 25.9 on 3s) or 3.7 turnovers per game?

Even if they do, it's not like there's another rookie putting up vastly better numbers. Victor Oladipo's stats are favorable -- 14.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg and 4.2 apg, but he also struggled with turnovers (3.2 per game) and his shooting numbers aren't that much better (41.4 overall, 31.3 on 3s).

And while Trey Burke has had his moments and definitely improved the Jazz when he joined the team after missing the first month due to injury, it's hard to make a case that he had a season worthy of being Rookie of the Year.

So what do you think? Is the Rookie of the Year in the bag for Carter-Williams? Or could Oladipo or Burke catch fire in the last two weeks and somehow snatch the award?

[Nico29]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabio_Fognini

Def handy on clay.

But world ranked number 68.

150-1 would tempt me if it wasn't with youwindontgetpaidanyway.

Might stick a very small ew bet on at 100-1 anyway for the craic.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/mens/mens-french-open/winner

He did look v good beating murray today.

He's 13th in the world. Wiki is not your friend on this occasion.

Thank you Scotty.

Indeed I heard that on the bbc on Sunday but assumed wiki was right!

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Singles.aspx

Bit shocked that Murray is down in 8th, he has been an almost permanent fixture in the top 4 for years.

Incred gap between the top 2 and the rest right now.

Back to that foggy bet, I like the point people are making about Murray being grossly underpriced (34.0) right now himself for that tournament.

Think i'd choose to back a couple of 100-1+ rags rather than those like Murray and Fed right now if choosing to oppose the big 2.

[redarmi]

A sportsbook that is probably not on many peoples radar, Intertops, has a really good offer for the Masters.  If your player comes second then you get paid out too.  Intertops have been around for years and I know them pretty well as my wife used to be in charge of customer services there and we still have a lot of very close friends that work for them so I can vouch, as far as you ever can, that they are likely to pay.  Dead heat rules apply if there is a tie for second and it only counts for the first five bets you place and they don't do each way but irrespective it is a pretty good offer I think. 

[Rubbish2407]

Great hair.

This chap from the day's photo album won Newbury racecourse's best dressed gentleman the year before I did, I kid you not. Thin/pathetic I know but I can't believe he's popped up again!

Unbiased opinion on the boat race? We will smash them.

Not sure there's been enough love for this or maybe derision from Tikay?

[BigAdz]

Standards obviously slipped the year after this guy then.....

[Tal]

Standards obviously slipped the year after this guy then.....

It's like Ed was a "difficult second album"

[edgascoigne]

Standards obviously slipped the year after this guy then.....

It's like Ed was a "difficult second album"

[DungBeetle]

According to Oddschecker Juan Monaco is 700-1 on Betfair for the French Open.  

He's been utter garbage this year, but if you want an outsider you can do worse as he normally comes alive this time of year on the dirt, and is playing in a medicre field this week which might get his confidence on the mend.

[Tal]

I take it all back. Here's Ed:

Click to see full-size image.