Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

We hear a lot about grimming in gambling, unpaid bets/ debts etc but never seem to hear the good side to it.

Made several spread bets on blonde with someone who I've never met in real life at start of football season, obv I completely luckboxed a pretty sizeable win- well big winning position at moment- and the person paid the majority of the figure a month before the bets would even need to be settled. Felt like should post as I know some people worry about betting with people they don't know in real life on here but there's still honour in gambling. Won't post persons name in case they don't want to be known but they can quote the post and call me a luckbox if they want

Cheers mate.  Everton.   

[TightEnd]

mini boom 

14-Apr   Tightend   williamhill   17-Apr   cricket   IPL Delhi Daredevils v Royal Challengers Bangalore   duminy dd top bat   6/1   15   105   Y   90

http://www.espncricinfo.com/indian-t20-league-2014/engine/match/729281.html

67 not out, baffling batting at number 5!

[arbboy]

Darts tonight have been covered for the darts earlier in the week on fred.  Another way of backing the draws around the 4/1 mark in each game is to bet 'draw in any game' at Boyles (i know thread can't get on there but for others who follow) at 40/85.  This roughly equates to backing each draw at 4/1 but in a combination sort of way rather than each match individually.  

If you take the maths of each match not to draw ie 1/4 or 1.25 then do 1.25 to the power of 5 thats the price of no draw which comes to just over 2/1 or 3.05 as a decimal.  The inverse of this price is then the price there is a draw in any game tonight. which is roughly 40/85 which boyles are.  (i hoovered their early 8/15 which was cracking value).  However, we make the draws a 7/2 shot so the true price of the draw is closer to a 2/5 shot in any game if you work the same maths through but replace 4/1 price with the 'correct' price of 7/2.  ie 1.286 or 2/7 to power of 5 which comes to 3.5 or 5/2 so 2/5 for the inverse outcome of a draw happening.

Victor originally went 1/3 2/1 so there was an arb on the market which has now been closed but the 40/85 with boyles is still value.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts-weekly-specials/tied-match

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts-weekly-specials/any-drawn-match

It's not really a bet though for the small stake big win types like Marky but it equates to the same bet as backing all the draws at 4/1 ev wise so for those of you who don't mind backing a short one you are getting the same edge effectively but you can't win the world potentially with a super yankee!

[tikay]

mini boom 

14-Apr   Tightend   williamhill   17-Apr   cricket   IPL Delhi Daredevils v Royal Challengers Bangalore   duminy dd top bat   6/1   15   105   Y   90

http://www.espncricinfo.com/indian-t20-league-2014/engine/match/729281.html

67 not out, baffling batting at number 5!

Well done Tighty!

I turned the TV on just as the last ball was being bowled, so missed the fun. Shame I never tuned in earlier.

[tikay]

Darts tonight have been covered for the darts earlier in the week on fred.  Another way of backing the draws around the 4/1 mark in each game is to bet 'draw in any game' at Boyles (i know thread can't get on there but for others who follow) at 40/85.  This roughly equates to backing each draw at 4/1 but in a combination sort of way rather than each match individually. 

If you take the maths of each match not to draw ie 1/4 or 1.25 then do 1.25 to the power of 5 thats the price of no draw which comes to just over 2/1 or 3.05 as a decimal.  The inverse of this price is then the price there is a draw in any game tonight. which is roughly 40/85 which boyles are.  (i hoovered their early 8/15 which was cracking value).  However, we make the draws a 7/2 shot so the true price of the draw is closer to a 2/5 shot in any game if you work the same maths through but replace 4/1 price with the 'correct' price of 7/2.  ie 1.286 or 2/7 to power of 5 which comes to 3.5 or 5/2 so 2/5 for the inverse outcome of a draw happening.

Victor originally went 1/3 2/1 so there was an arb on the market which has now been closed but the 40/85 with boyles is still value.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts-weekly-specials/tied-match

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts-weekly-specials/any-drawn-match

Yes, I was about the Post the same thing.

[tikay]

Hate too massage an already large ego.

But chomps yr to good.

Humilitah is my middle name bruh!

Very well done Mr Humilitah.

[arbboy]

Darts tonight have been covered for the darts earlier in the week on fred.  Another way of backing the draws around the 4/1 mark in each game is to bet 'draw in any game' at Boyles (i know thread can't get on there but for others who follow) at 40/85.  This roughly equates to backing each draw at 4/1 but in a combination sort of way rather than each match individually. 

If you take the maths of each match not to draw ie 1/4 or 1.25 then do 1.25 to the power of 5 thats the price of no draw which comes to just over 2/1 or 3.05 as a decimal.  The inverse of this price is then the price there is a draw in any game tonight. which is roughly 40/85 which boyles are.  (i hoovered their early 8/15 which was cracking value).  However, we make the draws a 7/2 shot so the true price of the draw is closer to a 2/5 shot in any game if you work the same maths through but replace 4/1 price with the 'correct' price of 7/2.  ie 1.286 or 2/7 to power of 5 which comes to 3.5 or 5/2 so 2/5 for the inverse outcome of a draw happening.

Victor originally went 1/3 2/1 so there was an arb on the market which has now been closed but the 40/85 with boyles is still value.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts-weekly-specials/tied-match

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/premier-league/premier-league-darts-weekly-specials/any-drawn-match

Yes, I was about the Post the same thing.

I will type slower next time!

[McGlashan]

Jordi Alba and Neymar are out injured for 3-4 weeks.  Center backs Pique and Ramos are out of Saturdays game vs Athletic Bilbao plus stand in CB Bartra is an injury doubt.

Suggest we get on Bilbao to win at Barcelona @11-1 (10-1 would be okay).

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/spain/la-liga-primera/barcelona-v-athletic-bilbao/winner

[exstream]

Jordi Alba and Neymar are out injured for 3-4 weeks.  Center backs Pique and Ramos are out of Saturdays game vs Athletic Bilbao plus stand in CB Bartra is an injury doubt.

Suggest we get on Bilbao to win at Barcelona @11-1 (10-1 would be okay).

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/spain/la-liga-primera/barcelona-v-athletic-bilbao/winner

Don't think Ramos being injured will have that much of an effect.

12s at Boyle though.

[McGlashan]

Or for Spoilsports customers 4/5 on Bilbao to find the net http://www.oddschecker.com/football/spain/la-liga-primera/barcelona-v-athletic-bilbao/total-away-goals-over-under-0-5

This already looked an appealing price for them to score past stand in goalkeeper Pinto who hasn't been too impressive. Word is one of their younger keepers in a reserve side is held in higher asteem, Pinto on the other hand is better mates with Messi.

[Waz1892]

Womans super league starts tonight.

New structure of 2 leagues. First game draw up an interesting tie.

Liverpool ladies vs man city ladies.

Liverpool won the league this year winning 12 of the 14 games, scoring 46 in the process.

City were playing in the National League, but as a result of the new 2 tier system, have been "promoted"*** to the super league.

*** all teams had to reapply for their places and it seems so what controversially Man city were given a place at the expense of doncaster belles, who'll now play in WSL 2.

City finished 4th in the national.

As a result of gaining this position, as only city know how they have gone out and bought a load of new players, including a few england intls!!!

Odds for city are 9/4 with whil (cant find it on oddschecker) the 9/4 could be a mistake if the new players click?

Worth a small bet?

No love for this. Channel 426 for those that can. KO 7.45

[Waz1892]

Norwich vs Liverpool.

Sturridge looks like missing out.  And with Chelsea pending wont be risked if any doubts remain.

Anytime scorer, with Moses or Aspas likely to be replacement, assuming rodgers wont tinker with formation too much.

Moses isnt available for the Chelse game as on loan, meaning more likely to start ahead on Aspasz

4/1 with lads/ pp

Thoughts?

[Doobs]

Have been out all day where I couldn't even get phone reception never mind internet.  Wtf with this 20th century shit?  How did we cope?

The Newcastle bet looks a great price to me.  Table says Newcastle are better, recent form says they are equally bad, betting suggests Newcastle are a worse team.  That isn't right, pile in.  We'd look like clowns* if we didn't.

Yesterday's result for Palace clearly great for the handicap.  Barring succesful complaints from the team that are at least as bad as Newcastle then Palace are already on 91 on the handicap.  That was about where I though they needed to be to get 3rd at the end of the season.  I think Stoke and Hull can still catch them, but even if Palace get no more points, each would probably have to win at least 2.  Everton look catchable for 2nd on handicap.  To land the 100/1 think we need Liverpool to self destruct, Graf Spee style.  Can't be exact as sans le spreadsheet.  Tres bien tho. 

#inAntwetrust

* cant think of a more appropriate word

[mulhuzz]

can I just ask.....

do you still need to score at least one goal to win a football match?

Newcastle have scored 9 all year, Remy may well be involved (might not start...lol) but don't underestimate the volatility and hostility which will be pouring from the stands. Players couldn't give a flying fuck about the gaffer or the owner, as a result they are playing like they'd sooner wipe their arse with the shirt than wear it.

If you make me back one team I'll pick Swansea, but it's likely 0-0.

[Tal]

It's like Adz has been bitten by a radioactive geordie