Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Was the Iceland to qualify for ESC bet matched?

It's unmatched at 5.0

currently 3.45-4.0

[TightEnd]

Alan McManus v Ken Doherty - 2nd round snooker

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/alan-mcmanus-v-ken-doherty/winner

Both players beat seeds in the first round. McManus, now making the second round for the first time since 2005, beat John Higgins 10-7 whilst former world champion Doherty beat Stuart Bingham 10-5.

Over best of 25 frames this will be a long and tight match and McManus has been priced as 10/11 favourite, Doherty 11/10.

I think there is a reaosnable chance that these prices are the wrong way round and that Doherty should be favourite.

McManus is a superb tactical safety player but did not have to score heavily to beat Higgins, who made notable mistakes in the first round match. Doherty on the other hand convincingly beat Bingham

Doherty is the higher ranked player 28 to 35, and neither have had the limelight and pressure of a last sixteen match in a ranking tournament for some time.

In 15 frames in the first round Ken had six breaks over 50

In 17 frames against Higgins McManus only had three breaks over 50, and that was sufficient to win

Of course McManus' style is tight, safety, restrict opponents, attritional style etc but over 25 frames he shouldn't be a heavy enough scorer to justify being odds on.....

to double check this i went back to qualifying. McManus beat our old friend Mark Williams 10-8 in the final round, his third qualifying win tbhis year. three breaks over 50 required to beat Williams, only

I think he's had a kind draw - Higgins in no form, Williams half interested if you catch him on the right day (arguably still has with Doherty)

Recommend £50 Doherty 11/10 BetFictor

[arbboy]

Agree with this.  I would have made Kendo a decent fav in this match.

[TightEnd]

Saracens v Clermont Auvergne on Saturday

Heineken cup semi

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/saracens-v-clermont-auvergne/winner

Clermont are 8/13 for this match being played at Twickenham, as the away side. Last season’s finalists are a powerful side with pace and flair to burn but generally are a far more effective outfit at home in this competition, where they have been unbeatable for many years. Clermont have been in the knockout stages of the Heineken Cup for seven years but have never won it.

Saracens are currently nine points clear at the top of the Aviva Premiership with a home semi-final already guaranteed. Three years ago they lost to Clermont 22-3 in the Heineken quarters at home but have improved a lot since.

This will probably be a very close game and key battles will decide it notably in the back three Chris Ashton has nine tries in the compeititon this season but faces the dynamic Clermont back three with Sitiveni Sivivatu alongside Lee Byrne and Napolioni Nalaga.

Saracens have suffered significant blows in losing the in-form second-row George Kruis and back-rower Ernst Joubert to injuries but the other key battle will be in the kicking game where Clermont win matches with drop-goals from Brock James and penalties kicked by Morgan Parra. However Saracens have Owen Farrell, who hammered Wales with kicks from the tee and out of hand six weeks ago. The 22-year-old fly-half will surely feel more at home at England’s headquarters than Parra, whose record with France there is played three, lost three

I am tempted by Saracens at 6/4 outright but 10/11 (£55) with a 4 point handicap start Saracens with WH/Betfred looks very interesting in what could well be a one score game

[Chompy]

Was the Iceland to qualify for ESC bet matched?

It's unmatched at 5.0

currently 3.45-4.0

Take it down for now, as it's not gonna get matched. Hopefully we'll nick some 3/1 on the week.

[TightEnd]

Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders 2:30pm GMT (8:00pm IST) Sharjah Cricket Stadium, Sharjah

Bangalore are one of two undefeated teams after two games. Their strength is in a really deep and big hitting batting order, in which they have the luxury (strangely) of batting the world’s best T20 player AB DeVilliers at number 5. They tend to rely on more pace bowling than the other sides with only the domestic spinner Chahal in the side. This could well cost them later in the tournament but for now, the batting power will win them a lot of games and they are 8/13 favourites for this match

Kolkota have won one, lost one and rely on a predominantly domestic line up, augmented by the very experienced Kallis to kit the line up together. Their key strength is the presence in their line up of the excellent Sunil Narine who has 5 wickets in two games and his battle with the big hitters could decide this game

The game is in Sharjah, important because average scores so far (on a small sample size) are 20 fewer than in Dubai and pitches are slower and lower. This could suit Kolkota and Narine in particular, but the disparity in talent makes it difficult to oppose Bangalore

Narine is a short price to be the top Kolkota bowler at 5/2, probably deserved but not value. There is a better bet in the Top Bangalore bowler market, specifically because this game is in Sharjah.

Yuzvendra Chahal mentioned above is an attacking 23 year old leg spinner in a side packed with quicks. Stan James offer him at 5/1 top bowler, no less than seventh favourite in the market behind all the better known quicks. On the likely pitch, clear value. 9/2 888 or Unibet if you can get it, don't take less than 9/2

[TightEnd]

Was the Iceland to qualify for ESC bet matched?

It's unmatched at 5.0

currently 3.45-4.0

Take it down for now, as it's not gonna get matched. Hopefully we'll nick some 3/1 on the week.

done, cancelled, thanks

[tikay]

Alan McManus v Ken Doherty - 2nd round snooker

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/alan-mcmanus-v-ken-doherty/winner

Both players beat seeds in the first round. McManus, now making the second round for the first time since 2005, beat John Higgins 10-7 whilst former world champion Doherty beat Stuart Bingham 10-5.

Over best of 25 frames this will be a long and tight match and McManus has been priced as 10/11 favourite, Doherty 11/10.

I think there is a reaosnable chance that these prices are the wrong way round and that Doherty should be favourite.

McManus is a superb tactical safety player but did not have to score heavily to beat Higgins, who made notable mistakes in the first round match. Doherty on the other hand convincingly beat Bingham

Doherty is the higher ranked player 28 to 35, and neither have had the limelight and pressure of a last sixteen match in a ranking tournament for some time.

In 15 frames in the first round Ken had six breaks over 50

In 17 frames against Higgins McManus only had three breaks over 50, and that was sufficient to win

Of course McManus' style is tight, safety, restrict opponents, attritional style etc but over 25 frames he shouldn't be a heavy enough scorer to justify being odds on.....

to double check this i went back to qualifying. McManus beat our old friend Mark Williams 10-8 in the final round, his third qualifying win tbhis year. three breaks over 50 required to beat Williams, only

I think he's had a kind draw - Higgins in no form, Williams half interested if you catch him on the right day (arguably still has with Doherty)

Recommend £50 Doherty 11/10 BetFictor

Thanks Tighty.


BET PLACED

[cheapwetsuit]

No luck in La Fleche Wallonne (and no Summer holidays in the Caribbean). Caruso definitely sacrificed his race for Moreno, and was going well up the Mur de Huy, but when he ran out of juice and turned round to let Moreno (9th) take over, his captain was nowhere to be seen. Bad tactics from Katusha meant a bad result for them in the end. I reckon they picked the wrong horse to begin with.

Our saver, Tom-Jelte Slagter only managed to finish fifth, with the podium ending up Valverde (1st), Martin (2nd), Kwiatkowski (3rd). Daniel Martin, who has been struggling for form all season, was a massive surprise. The other two not so much, but it just goes to show the lack of in-form puncheurs at the moment ... of which Martin is one.

Oh well, that's me done till the Giro starts. Backed half the field already.

[Ant040689]

No luck in La Fleche Wallonne (and no Summer holidays in the Caribbean). Caruso definitely sacrificed his race for Moreno, and was going well up the Mur de Huy, but when he ran out of juice and turned round to let Moreno (9th) take over, his captain was nowhere to be seen. Bad tactics from Katusha meant a bad result for them in the end. I reckon they picked the wrong horse to begin with.

Our saver, Tom-Jelte Slagter only managed to finish fifth, with the podium ending up Valverde (1st), Martin (2nd), Kwiatkowski (3rd). Daniel Martin, who has been struggling for form all season, was a massive surprise. The other two not so much, but it just goes to show the lack of in-form puncheurs at the moment ... of which Martin is one.

Oh well, that's me done till the Giro starts. Backed half the field already.

Cheers for the sweat.

[cheapwetsuit]

No luck in La Fleche Wallonne (and no Summer holidays in the Caribbean). Caruso definitely sacrificed his race for Moreno, and was going well up the Mur de Huy, but when he ran out of juice and turned round to let Moreno (9th) take over, his captain was nowhere to be seen. Bad tactics from Katusha meant a bad result for them in the end. I reckon they picked the wrong horse to begin with.

Our saver, Tom-Jelte Slagter only managed to finish fifth, with the podium ending up Valverde (1st), Martin (2nd), Kwiatkowski (3rd). Daniel Martin, who has been struggling for form all season, was a massive surprise. The other two not so much, but it just goes to show the lack of in-form puncheurs at the moment ... of which Martin is one.

Oh well, that's me done till the Giro starts. Backed half the field already.

Cheers for the sweat.

For those that haven't seen it yet, here's the last 8km of the race:
http://www.steephill.tv/players/youtube3/?title=Last+8+Km&dashboard=fleche-wallonne&id=BbXDvRAE4fw&yr=2014

Watch from 09:00 to see the finish on the Mur de Huy. At 09:47 you can see my heart breaking as Caruso hands over to Moreno. 

[redarmi]

According to the Racing Post Boyles are looking to offer franchises in UK.  So coming soon you too might be able to take a bet of 42p e/w at 7/2...........

[Doobs]

It shouldn't be much of a surprise, but Radiator hasn't made the 1000 Guineas cut.  She ran disappointingly last race at two, and there hasn't been any chatter over the winter I have noticed.  Vorda has made the cut, but has already appeared and seemed to run like a non stayer. 

Rizeena, who was briefly mentioned in dispatches before we backed Annie Power, has been flying on the gallops and is now clear favourite.  No time to celebrate for those of us who backed her back then, there is talk of her running in the colts race instead.  Meanwhile the connections of Annie Power have said she isn't running in the stayers race at Punchestown.  Presumably she is going for the Mares Race to leave the way clear for Hurricane Fly to show how much he has declined.

[TightEnd]

23-Jan   Chompy   racebets   Oct-2014   Horses   To win 3+ Group 1's in 2014   Treve   5/1   80

There have been some Royal Ascot entry announcements today with last year's Arc winner Treve set to run in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes.

The French-trained horse has been installed as the heavy favourite - Coral's 5/4 is the best we can see at present.

Betfred spokesman Andrew Griffiths, whose firm go 11/10, said: "Royal Ascot had better dust down the red carpet as the queen of European racing is on her way. She ran away with the Arc and looks head and shoulders above her Prince Of Wales's Stakes rivals."

[Chompy]

Joke Choral have Music Master at 7/4 for the 3.10 Warwick tomo.

No idea why, as I wouldn't want to lay odds against.

Recommend £60 win @ 7/4. Glglgl getting on.