Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Stevie G wins SPOTY  when/if Pool win title, not despite a mistake in a big game methinks.

I wonder if they aging Mr Dettori is the best jock for treve?

Stevie just done at 2.3 on the machine, while the Fodds boys are all half asleep as usual.

You don't think Dettori is riding well this season?

Not seen too much of him tbh Chomps. A simple observation based on his riding in past few years. As Doobs said, certainly not panic time for any of the bets and still a fair performance under any circs.

could look "bet of the century mk2" come October.

Is Tikay around.  As much as you can onTreve for the Arc please.  Help make up for falling off the wagon on the drop goal bets

Despite Oddschecker saying Ladbrokes go 5/1 for the Arc, their actual price is.......5/2.

[tikay]

Stevie G wins SPOTY  when/if Pool win title, not despite a mistake in a big game methinks.

I wonder if they aging Mr Dettori is the best jock for treve?

Stevie just done at 2.3 on the machine, while the Fodds boys are all half asleep as usual.

You don't think Dettori is riding well this season?

Not seen too much of him tbh Chomps. A simple observation based on his riding in past few years. As Doobs said, certainly not panic time for any of the bets and still a fair performance under any circs.

could look "bet of the century mk2" come October.

Is Tikay around.  As much as you can onTreve for the Arc please.  Help make up for falling off the wagon on the drop goal bets

Despite Oddschecker saying Ladbrokes go 5/1 for the Arc, their actual price is.......5/2.

Correction, was showing 5/2, but 5/1 now. Restricted to £25, but taken that.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Lordy Lordy, 2-0 Chelsea.

[luther101]

Get in there

[Tal]

Lordy Lordy, 2-0 Chelsea.

I'm sure Jose will congratulate everyone involved

[Doobs]

Stevie G wins SPOTY  when/if Pool win title, not despite a mistake in a big game methinks.

I wonder if they aging Mr Dettori is the best jock for treve?

Stevie just done at 2.3 on the machine, while the Fodds boys are all half asleep as usual.

You don't think Dettori is riding well this season?

Not seen too much of him tbh Chomps. A simple observation based on his riding in past few years. As Doobs said, certainly not panic time for any of the bets and still a fair performance under any circs.

could look "bet of the century mk2" come October.

Is Tikay around.  As much as you can onTreve for the Arc please.  Help make up for falling off the wagon on the drop goal bets

Despite Oddschecker saying Ladbrokes go 5/1 for the Arc, their actual price is.......5/2.

Correction, was showing 5/2, but 5/1 now. Restricted to £25, but taken that.

BET PLACED

Ooh that means I can get £2.50 on.  Taking a chance there.

[scotty2hatty]

Anyone who can count in seconds confirm the advantage rule there? About six seconds I make it, absolute joke refereeing, allows Sunderland to completely freeroll Cardiff.

Horrific refereeing.

In NHL ice-hockey, after a foul has been committed the ref raised his hand in the air but allows play to continue until a member of the defending team touches the puck giving the attacking team the chance to score before blowing up for the foul. It works well and I like it.

I'm not sure how long should be allowed for an advantage to ensue in football under the current rules but I'd like to see them adopt the ice-hockey method as it's really clear-cut.

rule in football is three seconds.

NHL or rugby method (taking ball over gain line) works for me. Problem with NHL method as directly applied is ball never goes out of play where as imagine advantage, player shoots, misses and now it's a GK. Does that mean you can still award a pen even though they've missed a clear chance? I'd say definitely not.

Referee told me during the week that it was 4 seconds. After he'd made some shambolic advantage calls.

[hector62]

Oh look - a drop goal.

[TightEnd]

Wilkinson dropped a goal for Toulon in a defensive battle with all the points scored from kicks

[JaffaCake]

Been looking at the odds 'to make England's WC squad' today. I know argueboy reckons there must be some value somewhere, so I thought I'd look at certs and where the gaps are.

There question marks it seems to me are: Who comes in as reserve right back if Walker doesn't make it? Will Jones/Smalling cover there, and therefore open up a spot for another centre half? Caulker (6/1) and Lescott (8/1) are next two in the betting. Stones (10/1) seems to have some momentum, or there's a story in the People that Flannagan of Liverpool (10/1) is set to take over Walker's role. Remember, even if Walker's fit, Jones and Smalling are really very similar and might be competing for one place. If I was Roy I'd take both and no reserve right back I think, but little chance he doesn't take 8 defenders.

Reserve reserve keeper. I think Fraser Forster should and will get it at 4/7. Any arguing here? Butland and Ruddy not exactly pushing for places.

Up front we have two class playings in Rooney and Sturridge, and not much else. Welbeck is best priced 1/5 and looks a certainty. Who is the fourth guy? Lambert is 6/4, Caroll 15/8. I've had a bet on Conor Wickham today at 40's (now been cut to 25s). Bang in form, big lump, young, chance to score a few more before the season's out to press his claims. Defo a vacancy here.

Midfield is really hard to put together. Gerrard is captain. Sterling, Wilshere, Lallana, Milner all very short and look certain (not sure why with Milner but there u go, tries hard, never lets anyone down etc). Wilshere is always injured so poss a vacancy there. The Ox is 1/2, looks a bet to me, fit, looks very good, can play in a few positions. Barkley, Henderson and Lamps all similarly priced. That's nine already, only gonna be eight places max, u could argue should be six if we play 4-3-3, tho Sterling would probs count as a forward in that case. Carrick and Townsend are both priced odds on, I don't see how u get them all in.

I'd be surprised if we can't name 21 or 22 of the 23 right now....can u put accas on of all the certs? I don't really get why Hart is 1/50 and Jags 1/7. Surely they're both dead certs if fit. Is Jags 7 times more likely to get injured?

I picked my squad and got 277.5...are they related contingencies?

[chemicaltoon]

Glad to see the first bet can go in the winners column.

The NBA have just released a statement stating Washington Wizards Forward Nene will be banned for Game 4 against the Chicago Bulls after incident with Jimmy Butler in Game 3.

http://nba.si.com/2014/04/26/nene-suspended-wizards-bulls-jimmy-butler/

Nene was ruled out for 6 weeks towards the end of February and during that period the replacement was Trevor Booker. I have been having a quick look at the games that Booker featured in during that time and its fair to say its not a like for like replacement. Booker doesn't have the same presence on Offence and Defense that Nene does. There definitely appears to be some high scores from both sides during that period too though.

If we are to assume the handicappers will adjust the match line and the total points line by the appropriate amount, is it better to be looking to exploit the over/under on specifics players? Jimmy Butlers line has generally been 15.5 I think and Noahs 13.5, I cant remember looking at Boozers line during the playoffs and don’t have a way of finding the lines set for these things from previous games unfortunately. Or maybe looking at some of the other Washington Wizards players who will now have to pick up the slack if they are to get something out of the game.

I’m not sure if there is a bet here and I will try and spend some further time looking into the fixtures during March to see if I can see anything. Hope some people with more NBA knowledge than myself can put the information to good use.

Game is 6pm 27th April

Thanks Kev, that looks an interesting angle.

We have a few really smart NBA-heads here, am sure they will have some views on this by tomorrow.

Nene's been really hot in this series, well the first two games they won anyway, but in general I don't think him going down makes too much diff. Firstly it's no surprise he got a suspension, so the time to bet may well have been while watching live. Booker is a much diff player, so think you're right the extra slack will be taken up by others. Brad Beal has really come of age in this series, I've been over on him the last couple of games, wouldn't be surprised to see him get more shots. Also John Wall is the undoubted star yet he's not been shooting much, so imagine he will take more.

Noah is interesting, he's been a one-man team to get the Bulls where they are but he's been a little off his game. Would love to see him take advantage of less work at the defensive end...he's never gonna score many less than 13, but I went over on 365 in the last game in their combo of points/assists/rebounds which I think is too low (even tho I lost). Might be one for u, as he can get 25 without scoring a point.

Not sure there's massive value anywhere tho, as Nene isn't that big a deal despite playing well at the mo...

Thanks for the response. I must confess I have not been watching the NBA long enough to make informed decisions about these things so glad to hear your thoughts. I was really impressed with Nene during the first game of the series, I can definitely believe I am reading too much in to this suspension and there is not a value bet to be had. To back this up it looks that the news has had no to little change on the lines, certainly not since yesterday anyway, as you said it wasn't surprise information, if I was aware of it.

I do think that the players lines are not adjusted enough over the course of the season games, I can specifically remember LeBrons numbers moving up during a hot streak and the same happening with Carmelo Anthony. However I'm not sure that is the case with the majority of players, it feels like they are set slightly above there season average and that is all the thought that goes into them. Obviously this is Playoff time and its a different style of game, with the better players getting more game time as less incentive to rest players unless your coasting like Miami with a 3-0 lead going into game 4, and this is when the best players are meant to shine.

I generally looked to bet under in the points markets and even the player lines during the regular season last year unless there was a good reason not too, but during the playoffs that has changed and I've gone for overs more often,

I'm still going to look at putting some bets on Butler to score more than 13.5 points, and like you I have been impressed with Noah during the regular season and hoping he will be able to perform with less defensive worries this game, I definitely like the combo bet you mentioned so will be looking at that as its Noahs all round game which has been impressive this year. I also feel that with these games being played every other day the coaches will be looking to adjust game by game and Mike Dunleavy was very impressive scoring a season high of 35 points, many of which were 3 pointers so hoping they will be looking to stop this and that will leave to more space for Butler and Noah

Better wait to see if Trevor Booker is playing first though as its him I think will be the weak link during the game. Thanks for your comment wont be jumping in with both feet on the Bulls team/players now.

[tikay]

Mr Tighty.

I saw you proposed the drop goal in the Munster game on Betpal at Evs. Well Ladbrokes have it at 11-8. Any interest?

Thanks Mr hector.

Tighty does not bet his own stuff, so I'll have to decide, but here is his article, as published on BetPal.com.


Toulon v Munster (Sunday)
 
Holders Toulon are 1/3 favourites to return to the final following their semi-final with Munster on Sunday in Marseille. Toulon beat Leinster comfortably in the their home quarter-final and their star-studded side have to be worthy favourites. Travelling to the South of France is going to be tough for Munster, who thrashed Toulouse 47-23 in their home quarter.
 
They have a power game based on a rugged pack of forwards and a strong maul but Toulon tend to match up well with power, and have a significant advantage in likely warm dry conditions as they have a more all-round game in the backs.
 
Jonny Wilkinson has been cleared to resume his quest for a glorious swansong to his glittering career after a hamstring injury. The former England fly-half is fit after missing Toulon’s last two matches. Bryan Habana, the Springbok wing, is also desperate to make a mark after four months out with a thigh injury.
 
Toulon are 7 point favourites on the handicap.  If pressed I would say they will cover, but it doesn’t offer too much scope. I expect them to win, but Munster’s defence led by the talismanic Paul O’Cnnell may well hold out for quite a while. I am more interested in the Even money that Paddy Power offer on the game featuring a drop goal. With Wilkinson and Ian Keatley of nster prolific kickers, I would put a drop goal as an odds on shot.


....and here is the Oddschecker Market......


http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/toulon-v-munster/drop-goal


So, should we climb aboard for a modest sum @ 11/8? He Recommended it @ Evens.

I have had £20 @ 11/8 with Ladbrokes on my own Accont, if Fred wants it, I'll simply transfer it across, but it has to be before the price shortens.

can do. relies on munster's defence keeping it it tight early, but we'll take it

We have a winner, well done Tighty for the write up, and hector for the nudge.

[redarmi]

Been looking at the odds 'to make England's WC squad' today. I know argueboy reckons there must be some value somewhere, so I thought I'd look at certs and where the gaps are.

There question marks it seems to me are: Who comes in as reserve right back if Walker doesn't make it? Will Jones/Smalling cover there, and therefore open up a spot for another centre half? Caulker (6/1) and Lescott (8/1) are next two in the betting. Stones (10/1) seems to have some momentum, or there's a story in the People that Flannagan of Liverpool (10/1) is set to take over Walker's role. Remember, even if Walker's fit, Jones and Smalling are really very similar and might be competing for one place. If I was Roy I'd take both and no reserve right back I think, but little chance he doesn't take 8 defenders.

Reserve reserve keeper. I think Fraser Forster should and will get it at 4/7. Any arguing here? Butland and Ruddy not exactly pushing for places.

Up front we have two class playings in Rooney and Sturridge, and not much else. Welbeck is best priced 1/5 and looks a certainty. Who is the fourth guy? Lambert is 6/4, Caroll 15/8. I've had a bet on Conor Wickham today at 40's (now been cut to 25s). Bang in form, big lump, young, chance to score a few more before the season's out to press his claims. Defo a vacancy here.

Midfield is really hard to put together. Gerrard is captain. Sterling, Wilshere, Lallana, Milner all very short and look certain (not sure why with Milner but there u go, tries hard, never lets anyone down etc). Wilshere is always injured so poss a vacancy there. The Ox is 1/2, looks a bet to me, fit, looks very good, can play in a few positions. Barkley, Henderson and Lamps all similarly priced. That's nine already, only gonna be eight places max, u could argue should be six if we play 4-3-3, tho Sterling would probs count as a forward in that case. Carrick and Townsend are both priced odds on, I don't see how u get them all in.

I'd be surprised if we can't name 21 or 22 of the 23 right now....can u put accas on of all the certs? I don't really get why Hart is 1/50 and Jags 1/7. Surely they're both dead certs if fit. Is Jags 7 times more likely to get injured?

I picked my squad and got 277.5...are they related contingencies?

If anything they are negatively correlated because, for example, if Gerrard is picked then there is one less spot for Lampard etc.  Not sure I could see what argument there is for them to not allow it although some firms have weird rules.  Fwiw I would wait until the season is done.  Can't see the prices on the certs changing that much and less chance of injury then but I can see how a lot of the very short prices are value.

[Nico29]

Ben Foster@8//13 looks kinda big to me with sadblokes.

Think the gen 2-7 is more reflective of his chances of making the squad.

[Karabiner]

Fred's, Hector's, and my old buddy Dr Noh whom obviously none of us are on this week is swinging beautifully, and absolutely tearing it up on the PGA tour in the event being hosted in New Orleans having shot a bogey-free 65,67,65(-19) for the first three rounds, yes that's noh bogeys.