Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

I'm just not a great fan of subjective opinions being stated as unalienable facts

"Because they are a better team than Munich this year."

They might be, they might not be. In fact there is little evidence to suggest they are the better team

its not as black and white as saying Madrid at 3-1 +are value with what we know of Bayern's experience, their ability to have most of the possession and Guardiola's knowledge of Real

I'd say 19/5 is ok, no more than that. Do think its interesting to see Real odds on to qualify

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bayern-munich-v-real-madrid/to-qualify

trying to logically marry up 19/5 to win the game and 8/13 to qualify suggests that the market is telling us that Bayern will win tonight but that Real will score 1+ away goals. That seems the most likely outcome


I'll be back a bit less grumpy later :-)

[booder]

A very happy St.Totteringham's Day to one an all.

I miss Nem.

 

[GreekWay]

I'm just not a great fan of subjective opinions being stated as unalienable facts

"Because they are a better team than Munich this year."

They might be, they might not be. In fact there is little evidence to suggest they are the better team

its not as black and white as saying Madrid at 3-1 +are value with what we know of Bayern's experience, their ability to have most of the possession and Guardiola's knowledge of Real

I'd say 19/5 is ok, no more than that. Do think its interesting to see Real odds on to qualify

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bayern-munich-v-real-madrid/to-qualify

trying to logically marry up 19/5 to win the game and 8/13 to qualify suggests that the market is telling us that Bayern will win tonight but that Real will score 1+ away goals. That seems the most likely outcome


I'll be back a bit less grumpy later :-)

I know its subjective cause its an opinion. And everyone has one.

I have to admit that I am confused now. Don't know what to bet on. :-/

[horseplayer]

It is ok to not have a bet Greek

No it isnt much fun but there is always tommorow/next week/ next month

[tikay]

It is ok to not have a bet Greek

No it isnt much fun but there is always tommorow/next week/ next month

Joking aside, that is a very important point by horsey.

We/you don't HAVE to bet on any specific event. If there is not a standout bet, just leave it. You'll save fortunes in the long run.

We have one regular who is desperate to bet every night, & so he tries too hard to find bets. That just has to end badly.

[Karabiner]

A very happy St.Totteringham's Day to one an all.

I miss Nem.

He's around, @internits on Twitter and mostly lurks on here.

Especially on St.Totteringham's day.

[GreekWay]

It is ok to not have a bet Greek

No it isnt much fun but there is always tommorow/next week/ next month

Joking aside, that is a very important point by horsey.

We/you don't HAVE to bet on any specific event. If there is not a standout bet, just leave it. You'll save fortunes in the long run.

We have one regular who is desperate to bet every night, & so he tries too hard to find bets. That just has to end badly.

I definitely agree with you guys.

I think I started becoming an addict.

On the big matches I will have a fiver or a tenner on just to have a sweat. Makes the match much more interesting.

[Junior Senior]

We were thinking of opposing Munich yesterday.

Any ideas which is the best bet go for for?

I am thinking of Madrid +0.5 which is 11/10 atm.

remind me, why are Madrid going to win/qualify?

Because they are a better team than Munich this year. Munich showed nothing in the first match and with Ronaldo, Bale and Benzema at front today Munich will need to outscore them. I can't see this happening.

Why are Munich 4/5? Way too low for this type of match.

Munich didn't have to show anything much in the first match, its the away leg at a tough place. job more or less done

have to say I expect Munich to win tonight

You are probably right, but there must be a price at which Real become value?

Currently Real can be backed at north of 3/1.

I'm not suggesting we should bet, but what price would you want to get with Real?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bayern-munich-v-real-madrid/winner

Not sure but if real do win it will be a low margin. Probably a single goal. If you can back the win at 3/1 then would there be value in backing real to win by 1 goal at 6/1 available with Sky? I am not saying its a bet but maybe worth considering if you do want to get with Real tonight.

Cant see real winning 2-0 or 3-1 or higher for example.

As it happens i think its one of those games that may just be best left alone. I actually fancy BTTS but at best priced 4/7 there is very little if any value in that.


Cliffs: recommend....No bet

[tikay]

We were thinking of opposing Munich yesterday.

Any ideas which is the best bet go for for?

I am thinking of Madrid +0.5 which is 11/10 atm.

remind me, why are Madrid going to win/qualify?

Because they are a better team than Munich this year. Munich showed nothing in the first match and with Ronaldo, Bale and Benzema at front today Munich will need to outscore them. I can't see this happening.

Why are Munich 4/5? Way too low for this type of match.

Munich didn't have to show anything much in the first match, its the away leg at a tough place. job more or less done

have to say I expect Munich to win tonight

You are probably right, but there must be a price at which Real become value?

Currently Real can be backed at north of 3/1.

I'm not suggesting we should bet, but what price would you want to get with Real?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/bayern-munich-v-real-madrid/winner

Not sure but if real do win it will be a low margin. Probably a single goal. If you can back the win at 3/1 then would there be value in backing real to win by 1 goal at 6/1 available with Sky? I am not saying its a bet but maybe worth considering if you do want to get with Real tonight.

Cant see real winning 2-0 or 3-1 or higher for example.

As it happens i think its one of those games that may just be best left alone. I actually fancy BTTS but at best priced 4/7 there is very little if any value in that.


Cliffs: recommend....No bet

I agree, as to the 2 enboldened points.

[GreekWay]

Following the racist comments from Sterling and all the reactions, Clippers are 6 points favourites against the Warriors tonight.

[mondatoo]

I'd have thought Bayern 6/4 to qualify has to be close to getting the betting shoes on.

No doubt for me they are currently the best team in Europe.

Dem opinions

Easy to manipulate Stats I know but still, Wowza...

Bayern had 72% possession at The Bernabeu , just unheard of.

Twice as many shots, 5x as many corners.

And this was on a huge off day lolz.

[Ironside]

Not liking this but tottenhams next manager Maurice (from Southampton ) ranging from 7/2 to 9/4 I think the 7/2 is good value plays football the spurs way and has a good record first season in epl and no ties to the saints after the chairman left

[arbboy]

Following the racist comments from Sterling and all the reactions, Clippers are 6 points favourites against the Warriors tonight.

http://9gag.com/gag/a8Wvb4e 

I was just wondering how likely it is the arena is half empty tonight as clipper fans boycott the owner? 

[arbboy]

I'd have thought Bayern 6/4 to qualify has to be close to getting the betting shoes on.

No doubt for me they are currently the best team in Europe.

Dem opinions

Easy to manipulate Stats I know but still, Wowza...

Bayern had 72% possession at The Bernabeu , just unheard of.

Twice as many shots, 5x as many corners.

And this was on a huge off day lolz.

The trouble with this bet is RM are 70% likely to score tonight (per bf prices on the BM clean sheet market).  This would mean BM need to score at least 3 goals to advance.  Whilst this is not impossible it does sort of explain how these markets are working independently.  As redarmi has said before 2nd leg games play out in funny ways where in this example once RM have scored they will not be overly worried about actually winning the game in 90 minutes hence their relatively big price to win in 90 minute compared to their 'to qualify' price.  Hope that makes sense.

[mondatoo]

I'd have thought Bayern 6/4 to qualify has to be close to getting the betting shoes on.

No doubt for me they are currently the best team in Europe.

Dem opinions

Easy to manipulate Stats I know but still, Wowza...

Bayern had 72% possession at The Bernabeu , just unheard of.

Twice as many shots, 5x as many corners.

And this was on a huge off day lolz.

The trouble with this bet is RM are 70% likely to score tonight (per bf prices on the BM clean sheet market).  This would mean BM need to score at least 3 goals to advance.  Whilst this is not impossible it does sort of explain how these markets are working independently.  As redarmi has said before 2nd leg games play out in funny ways where in this example once RM have scored they will not be overly worried about actually winning the game in 90 minutes hence their relatively big price to win in 90 minute compared to their 'to qualify' price.  Hope that makes sense.

What price would you want Bayern to qualify @ before getting on ?

That 70% likelihood of Real to score seems big to me (not questioning the maths obv), haven't Bayern got an insane record of not conceding goals ? Obv they don't play against teams with the attacking qualities of Real every week though.