Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

No one tell tikay that he's top of the Greyhound Derby comp

Well hello........

In all the years blonde has been around, I think I've entered 90% of all these sort of things, & I've yet to win one.

At least this one would be down to pure skill in picking the selections. No luck there, lads, all skill. (Feel & Maths combined, me).

[BorntoBubble]

No one tell tikay that he's top of the Greyhound Derby comp

Well hello........

In all the years blonde has been around, I think I've entered 90% of all these sort of things, & I've yet to win one.

At least this one would be down to pure skill in picking the selections. No luck there, lads, all skill. (Feel & Maths combined, me).

what % feel and what % maths did you use in your algo tikay. Cause i seem to have mine the wrong way around.

[TightEnd]

For Fred, with a notional £3,000 'roll, £800 to win £100 or £300 to win £37 is not a bet in a million years, but for those with bigger bankrolls, it makes perfect sense.

notional roll was £3000 and profits are £2700, roll is really £5700, so i think the days of £150 maxes should really be behind us

I don't mind us upping it when the occasion demands, we already do when we see fit, it is a guideline rather than a hard & fixed amount.

I'm not sure I agree with your logic though - we have £2,000 in Forward Bets on the book. Surely that must be taken into account?

So I view it as £3,000 + £2,700 MINUS £2,000.

Yes, no?

well ok, but we have to assume or take a view that the £2000 converts into a cash value of £x, yes? even if you don't want to plug in the thread 3-4% roi and plug in say -5% to be safe....

so to just take £2000 off is too conservative

i suppose i come at this from Joe Hart was priced at 1/8, betfair is 1/20, £800 to win £100 on a certainty (he'd be taken off in any pre WC friendly on any hair out of place, let alone risk injury) was a corker, and yet you were saying it wasn't suitable for the thread. I thought it was very suitable to keep the wheels oiled.

However i wouldn't have placed that with £800 of your money without consultation, so didn't!

[tikay]

No one tell tikay that he's top of the Greyhound Derby comp

Well hello........

In all the years blonde has been around, I think I've entered 90% of all these sort of things, & I've yet to win one.

At least this one would be down to pure skill in picking the selections. No luck there, lads, all skill. (Feel & Maths combined, me).

what % feel and what % maths did you use in your algo tikay. Cause i seem to have mine the wrong way around.

Sorry, top secret, can't say.

[tikay]

For Fred, with a notional £3,000 'roll, £800 to win £100 or £300 to win £37 is not a bet in a million years, but for those with bigger bankrolls, it makes perfect sense.

notional roll was £3000 and profits are £2700, roll is really £5700, so i think the days of £150 maxes should really be behind us

I don't mind us upping it when the occasion demands, we already do when we see fit, it is a guideline rather than a hard & fixed amount.

I'm not sure I agree with your logic though - we have £2,000 in Forward Bets on the book. Surely that must be taken into account?

So I view it as £3,000 + £2,700 MINUS £2,000.

Yes, no?

well ok, but we have to assume or take a view that the £2000 converts into a cash value of £x, yes? even if you don't want to plug in the thread 3-4% roi and plug in say -5% to be safe....

so to just take £2000 off is too conservative

i suppose i come at this from Joe Hart was priced at 1/8, betfair is 1/20, £800 to win £100 on a certainty (he'd be taken off in any pre WC friendly on any hair out of place, let alone risk injury) was a corker, and yet you were saying it wasn't suitable for the thread. I thought it was very suitable to keep the wheels oiled.

However i wouldn't have placed that with £800 of your money without consultation, so didn't!

Well I don't think "conservative" is necessarily a bad thing, but then I'm a lifelong nit.

We recently had a £350 bet @ 2/7, to nick £100, & I think it aged me 10 years. Like watching Edward Scissorhands, as one erudite chap noted.

It's just a personal thing, I don't want to bet that big, I want to enjoy my betting, not "bet scared". I have no objections or problems if others do, good luck to them.

I'm the same with poker, as you may know. I could sell a bit of action to the $10,000 PLO event in the WSOP, which I would give my right arm to be able play, & several people have offered to buy, or stake me, but I'm just too damn scared to play for that sort of money.

I'm very very happy playing small-ball, be it in Sports Betting, or poker. I just play small-ball poker these days, & have never enjoyed my poker more. My fave Fred bets are £10 or £20 @ 5/2, that sort of thing. Occasional gee-gees at 6/1 & up are fine, too, but once the numbers get bigger, I don't enjoy it so much. Remember that word. enjoy. It's the only reason I'm here.

I agree, by the way, that my numbers logic may have been overly conservative. In all good financial management, though, that tug of war, between prudent & gung-ho SHOULD take place all the time. It's a good thing.

[BorntoBubble]

For Fred, with a notional £3,000 'roll, £800 to win £100 or £300 to win £37 is not a bet in a million years, but for those with bigger bankrolls, it makes perfect sense.

notional roll was £3000 and profits are £2700, roll is really £5700, so i think the days of £150 maxes should really be behind us

I don't mind us upping it when the occasion demands, we already do when we see fit, it is a guideline rather than a hard & fixed amount.

I'm not sure I agree with your logic though - we have £2,000 in Forward Bets on the book. Surely that must be taken into account?

So I view it as £3,000 + £2,700 MINUS £2,000.

Yes, no?

well ok, but we have to assume or take a view that the £2000 converts into a cash value of £x, yes? even if you don't want to plug in the thread 3-4% roi and plug in say -5% to be safe....

so to just take £2000 off is too conservative

i suppose i come at this from Joe Hart was priced at 1/8, betfair is 1/20, £800 to win £100 on a certainty (he'd be taken off in any pre WC friendly on any hair out of place, let alone risk injury) was a corker, and yet you were saying it wasn't suitable for the thread. I thought it was very suitable to keep the wheels oiled.

However i wouldn't have placed that with £800 of your money without consultation, so didn't!

Well I don't think "conservative" is necessarily a bad thing, but then I'm a lifelong nit.

We recently had a £350 bet @ 2/7, to nick £100, & I think it aged me 10 years. Like watching Edward Scissorhands, as one erudite chap noted.

It's just a personal thing, I don't want to bet that big, I want to enjoy my betting, not "bet scared". I have no objections or problems if others do, good luck to them.

I'm the same with poker, as you may know. I could sell a bit of action to the $10,000 PLO event in the WSOP, which I would give my right arm to be able play, & several people have offered to buy, or stake me, but I'm just too damn scared to play for that sort of money.

I'm very very happy playing small-ball, be it in Sports Betting, or poker. I just play small-ball poker these days, & have never enjoyed my poker more. My fave Fred bets are £10 or £20 @ 5/2, that sort of thing. Occasional gee-gees at 6/1 & up are fine, too, but once the numbers get bigger, I don't enjoy it so much. Remember that word. enjoy. It's the only reason I'm here.

I agree, by the way, that my numbers logic may have been overly conservative. In all good financial management, though, that tug of war, between prudent & gung-ho SHOULD take place all the time. It's a good thing.

I think this is more than fair doos.

As a fred punter i get a feel from how people post (and who posts) as to what i want on. Just because fred bets £50 on somthing doeset mean i can not whack £200 on and same for if fred puts £100 on i may only put on £25 etc.

Its nice to have a benchmark to go off i.e max, double max. Mortgage jobbie. but aside from that its "almost" irrelevant what fred bets. as long as it is fair. so if someone says max and £100 is bet. Next time someone says max £1000 shouldnt be bet etc etc

[BorntoBubble]

just my 2ps worth obv

[BigAdz]

Interesting conundrum this Hart bet poses the Bosses.

I can see both sides of the coin. I used to be happy to place this sort of bet when I was punting for a living, and saw a few go down, I hasten to add, and they always left a bitter taste in my mouth, mainly because it wasn't how I had got the roll together in the first place, I suppose.

The reality is he IS a certainty to start on all known factors. 1-8 is massive. FACT.

Counter that with the notional stories of "remember how x broke his leg just before that championship decider". Yes we all remember the odd tale or two, but more importantly remember the millions more that have made their target without incident. That in itself makes it a bet.

Fred....Dont blame you either way.

[TightEnd]

this is probably pie in the sky, but the Leicester City Squad went to Thailand for a week with the owners, they are back to day

bit of a jolly, bit of PR etc etc

In a Q and A (not really reported in the English media) to national press

Click to see full-size image.

the vice-chairman (son of owner) said...

"We are are willing to spend £180 million to finish in the top 5 of the PL within 3 seasons"

Lets allow for a bit of hyperbole as its being said to sponsors/investors and for bragadoccio, as don't think top 5 is realistic given who is there already


I take the view that from Southampton down (given the italian money has gone and some of the bright talent will be leaving) there are thirteen PL teams much of a muchness. anyone can have a bad season and go. possibly three top ten spots to go at next season

6-1 top half has gone, 4-1 best, for what its worth (we discussed it a while ago)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-10-finish

[sonour]

For Fred, with a notional £3,000 'roll, £800 to win £100 or £300 to win £37 is not a bet in a million years, but for those with bigger bankrolls, it makes perfect sense.

notional roll was £3000 and profits are £2700, roll is really £5700, so i think the days of £150 maxes should really be behind us

I don't mind us upping it when the occasion demands, we already do when we see fit, it is a guideline rather than a hard & fixed amount.

I'm not sure I agree with your logic though - we have £2,000 in Forward Bets on the book. Surely that must be taken into account?

So I view it as £3,000 + £2,700 MINUS £2,000.

Yes, no?

well ok, but we have to assume or take a view that the £2000 converts into a cash value of £x, yes? even if you don't want to plug in the thread 3-4% roi and plug in say -5% to be safe....

so to just take £2000 off is too conservative

i suppose i come at this from Joe Hart was priced at 1/8, betfair is 1/20, £800 to win £100 on a certainty (he'd be taken off in any pre WC friendly on any hair out of place, let alone risk injury) was a corker, and yet you were saying it wasn't suitable for the thread. I thought it was very suitable to keep the wheels oiled.

However i wouldn't have placed that with £800 of your money without consultation, so didn't!

Was there any liquidity on Betfair at 1/20 ? If so we should definitely have been involved.

[sonour]

An opinion poll in tomorrows guardian shows the conservative party 1 percent ahead if skip and 3 ahead of Labour for the European elections. 25/1 with padraig would appear good value on the conservatives to win most says. Just been chopped by hills. 20/1 available at the ok corall

i don't think you've had a bet on the thread before, so by tradition....

can you update us on current best price and where please?

best price 20/1 with stand janes for most votes next best price is 14/1 and value has gone so if Fred can't get on with sj then I would suggest avoiding

thank you, we can't get on with stan james, so will have to leave it

keep posting please, and if one of us spots the next recc in time we'll get you off the mark

How much do we want at at 20/1 ?

Is the bet Conservatives to win most votes at European Elections ?

[samurai]

An opinion poll in tomorrows guardian shows the conservative party 1 percent ahead if skip and 3 ahead of Labour for the European elections. 25/1 with padraig would appear good value on the conservatives to win most says. Just been chopped by hills. 20/1 available at the ok corall

i don't think you've had a bet on the thread before, so by tradition....

can you update us on current best price and where please?

best price 20/1 with stand janes for most votes next best price is 14/1 and value has gone so if Fred can't get on with sj then I would suggest avoiding

thank you, we can't get on with stan james, so will have to leave it

keep posting please, and if one of us spots the next recc in time we'll get you off the mark

How much do we want at at 20/1 ?

Is the bet Conservatives to win most votes at European Elections ?

12/1 now unfortunately. 7/2 with Paddy...

[sonour]

An opinion poll in tomorrows guardian shows the conservative party 1 percent ahead if skip and 3 ahead of Labour for the European elections. 25/1 with padraig would appear good value on the conservatives to win most says. Just been chopped by hills. 20/1 available at the ok corall

i don't think you've had a bet on the thread before, so by tradition....

can you update us on current best price and where please?

best price 20/1 with stand janes for most votes next best price is 14/1 and value has gone so if Fred can't get on with sj then I would suggest avoiding

thank you, we can't get on with stan james, so will have to leave it

keep posting please, and if one of us spots the next recc in time we'll get you off the mark

How much do we want at at 20/1 ?

Is the bet Conservatives to win most votes at European Elections ?

Ok, I can see it is most votes not most seats and we have missed the price now. 12/1

[tikay]

this is probably pie in the sky, but the Leicester City Squad went to Thailand for a week with the owners, they are back to day

bit of a jolly, bit of PR etc etc

In a Q and A (not really reported in the English media) to national press

Click to see full-size image.

the vice-chairman (son of owner) said...

"We are are willing to spend £180 million to finish in the top 5 of the PL within 3 seasons"

Lets allow for a bit of hyperbole as its being said to sponsors/investors and for bragadoccio, as don't think top 5 is realistic given who is there already


I take the view that from Southampton down (given the italian money has gone and some of the bright talent will be leaving) there are thirteen PL teams much of a muchness. anyone can have a bad season and go. possibly three top ten spots to go at next season

6-1 top half has gone, 4-1 best, for what its worth (we discussed it a while ago)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-10-finish

I forgot that one Rich, can you get on for us, please?

Ironically (OK, you got me) I think for a full season sweat, £100 seems about right to me.

However, I don't want to be investing monster sums on the '14-'15 Season. It's an age thing.....

There ought to be a mechanism where a proxy could do it though.

[horseplayer]

https://vine.co/v/Mg3exllJlme

Howard Webb does a dive and pushes Holtby over