Tips for Tikay

[Bazzaboy]

It is very unlikely to happen to be fair and the difference is too big.  It will probably come into play in something like 1 in 100 fights and the styles of the two fighters don't suggest it is that likely.  In real terms it is an arb imo.

Hi Redarmi,

So if we back Groves on points and lay Groves by decision or technical decision then the only risk is the technical decision before the end of the fight which is something like throwing in the towel which you estimate to be in excess of 100/1 ?

Thank you

Yeah although throwing in the towel wouldn't be a TD. Basically the fight has to be stopped on cuts due to an accidental head clash. Spreadex have Groves by TD at 66/1, PP go 22/1!! Having watched thousands of fight I'd say Reds 100/1+ is far closer to the mark.

[sonour]

It is very unlikely to happen to be fair and the difference is too big.  It will probably come into play in something like 1 in 100 fights and the styles of the two fighters don't suggest it is that likely.  In real terms it is an arb imo.

Hi Redarmi,

So if we back Groves on points and lay Groves by decision or technical decision then the only risk is the technical decision before the end of the fight which is something like throwing in the towel which you estimate to be in excess of 100/1 ?

Thank you

Yeah although throwing in the towel wouldn't be a TD. Basically the fight has to be stopped on cuts due to an accidental head clash. Spreadex have Groves by TD at 66/1, PP go 22/1!! Having watched thousands of fight I'd say Reds 100/1+ is far closer to the mark.

Thank you Sir

[redarmi]

It is very unlikely to happen to be fair and the difference is too big.  It will probably come into play in something like 1 in 100 fights and the styles of the two fighters don't suggest it is that likely.  In real terms it is an arb imo.

Hi Redarmi,

So if we back Groves on points and lay Groves by decision or technical decision then the only risk is the technical decision before the end of the fight which is something like throwing in the towel which you estimate to be in excess of 100/1 ?

Thank you

Yeah it depends on commission levels etc obv but the 100/1 would be for a normal fight.  Imo (and I would be interested in Bazza's views on this) the styles of these two fighters are much less likely to see a fight end in that way.  Neither leads with their head or grapple that much and both tend to be somewhat willing to trade.  I think it is a fair trade for an educated punter willing to take the, albeit small, risk.

[sonour]

Thanks Redarmi

Ok, IN

Mr Froch and Mr Groves

Please don't accidentally clash heads and get cut badly enough for the fight  to be stopped.

Thank you

[Bazzaboy]

It is very unlikely to happen to be fair and the difference is too big.  It will probably come into play in something like 1 in 100 fights and the styles of the two fighters don't suggest it is that likely.  In real terms it is an arb imo.

Hi Redarmi,

So if we back Groves on points and lay Groves by decision or technical decision then the only risk is the technical decision before the end of the fight which is something like throwing in the towel which you estimate to be in excess of 100/1 ?

Thank you

Yeah it depends on commission levels etc obv but the 100/1 would be for a normal fight.  Imo (and I would be interested in Bazza's views on this) the styles of these two fighters are much less likely to see a fight end in that way.  Neither leads with their head or grapple that much and both tend to be somewhat willing to trade.  I think it is a fair trade for an educated punter willing to take the, albeit small, risk.

I'd agree with that. Also neither has a history of suffering bad cuts, which is a factor as some fighters are more susceptible to cuts than others.

[sonour]

Thanks to arbboy for finding this.

I'm no great fan of boxing but I am going out to watch this on Saturday night so at least I will have something to cheer even if it is cheering for them not to clash heads lol

[McGlashan]

A Technical Decision comes into play when there is an accidental clash of heads and the fight is stopped between rounds 5 and 12. Even then you will only get scooped if GG is ahead on the scorecards. Under any other outcome the arb lands.

Everything about the head clash discussion made sense.

[TightEnd]

Evening Mr T2.

In tomorrows rugby league Warrington are available at odds against v Leeds and should be backed. Leeds are looking jaded at present and home advantage should be crucial.

Suggest £20 Warrington to beat Leeds @ 11/10 with Corals.

Warrington11/10Warrington v Leeds - 30/05/2014
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£42.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £42.00

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £229.58

Outstanding Bets £2987.70

Free bets to use £25 Betfred

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=24

No bets completed yesterday

- The Spurs beat the Thunder 117-89 R Westbrook 21pts, 7ast, 4reb; T Duncan 22pts, 2ast, 12reb to go 3-2 up in the seven match western conference NBA final

Click to see full-size image.

This puts both the Heat and the Spurs, who we have in a "name the finalists" double one game away from the final with two games to play

- In baseball the Royals beat the Blue Jays 8-6, the Blue Jays first loss in 10 games

Click to see full-size image.

- this gave the Orioles a chance to catch up in the AL East, but they lost to the Astros. Never mind that though, after 50cents interesting first pitch, an analysis was produced of other celebrity first pitches. Only in America

Click to see full-size image.

- In Tennis Ferrer beat Bolelli in straight sets in the second round of the French and now plays 32nd seed Seppi in the last 32

- Overnight the first Newark by-election poll came out

Survation Newark poll http://bit.ly/1hCPOUS 

CON 36 -18
UKIP 28 +24
LAB 27 +4
LD 5 -5
Changes are on GE10

and the UKIP spin was as follows



Newark's important because CON has not retained a by-election whilst in office since 1989. UKIP has never won Westminster seat. Its also important as its another Watford bet for us. Short and hairy.

Following the UKIP Newark man on twitter purely for thread reporting has had some unfortunate bi-products. All for the greater cause though

- Also yesterday, Vince McMahon lined his lads up to tell them how it was going to go on Saturday

Click to see full-size image.

and the hype grows

Click to see full-size image.

This man is about to make a dream move

Click to see full-size image.

This man is making a creaky comeback



In under 2 weeks Brazil v Croatia at this stadium will be in the books...

Click to see full-size image.

Discovered an interesting shot yesterday of the first F1 Onboard camera

[Tal]

Brilliant!



Could do with Mr Moyes being spotted at The Hawthorns today. It's a bit far from the office to get a good view of the goings on, so perhaps someone with a spare husband could encourage him to play David Craig for the day?

[bunnydas8888]

I'm off to the surrey Middlesex quick cricket today, anyone got any decent bets for me to shout home later tonight?

[JoeBeevers]

OK, I am confused by the boxing. I think these two pages contradict each other. Anyone playing this market for decent amounts I would suggest you get a chat log confirming what is what.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referee_technical_decision

A referee technical decision (RTD) is a term used in boxing when a fight ends because a fighter refuses to continue or a fighter's corner refuses to allow the fighter to continue.
One of the most famous referee technical decisions occurred in the Sonny Liston vs. Muhammad Ali fight on February 25, 1964, in Miami Beach, Florida, the first of their two fights. After six back and forth rounds, Sonny Liston, complaining of a shoulder injury, refused to get up from his stool for the seventh round. The fight went to Muhammad Ali who, as a result, became the World Heavyweight Champion.

Another example is the match between Pacquiao and Dela Hoya on December 6, 2008 wherein the latter's cornerman told him stop the match at the end of round 8 since Pacquiao is too fast for him.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knockout

A technical knockout (also referred to as a T.K.O.) is declared when the referee, official ring physician, the fighter, or the fighter's cornermen decide that a fighter cannot safely continue the match.

[TightEnd]

I'm off to the surrey Middlesex quick cricket today, anyone got any decent bets for me to shout home later tonight?

not sure about decent, but i would look at

Malan top middlesex bat 100-30
Roy top surrey bat 100-30
small bet Ansari top surrey bat 20-1

if you want to be contrarian middlesex 13/8 outright. not a great T20 team but on any given night any T20 team can beat another

[Tal]

OK, I am confused by the boxing. I think these two pages contradict each other. Anyone playing this market for decent amounts I would suggest you get a chat log confirming what is what.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referee_technical_decision

A referee technical decision (RTD) is a term used in boxing when a fight ends because a fighter refuses to continue or a fighter's corner refuses to allow the fighter to continue.
One of the most famous referee technical decisions occurred in the Sonny Liston vs. Muhammad Ali fight on February 25, 1964, in Miami Beach, Florida, the first of their two fights. After six back and forth rounds, Sonny Liston, complaining of a shoulder injury, refused to get up from his stool for the seventh round. The fight went to Muhammad Ali who, as a result, became the World Heavyweight Champion.

Another example is the match between Pacquiao and Dela Hoya on December 6, 2008 wherein the latter's cornerman told him stop the match at the end of round 8 since Pacquiao is too fast for him.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knockout

A technical knockout (also referred to as a T.K.O.) is declared when the referee, official ring physician, the fighter, or the fighter's cornermen decide that a fighter cannot safely continue the match.

Might want to check the British Boxing Board of Control definitions. There must be clear parameters. Sure there's a rule about accidental injuries before four rounds are completed not being a decision.

[Tonji]

A minor quiz. My brother is racing here this weekend. Where is it?