Tips for Tikay

[Omm]

Hi tikay, been offline on holiday for a week, back now. Caught up on Fred ofc, think most of your questions were answered by Greeky. The main thing with LeBron's foul trouble is how rare he gets into it, I think he fouled out of a game last season and that was the first time in years (could probs check but u get my point). It's a combo of being really good, and also in basketball it seems that the veteran/name players are given more leeway than the less well known guys. It's also pretty evident that the refs let more go come playoff time, be it general fouls/big guys pushing and shoving in the post (under the basket) for position (remember it's a no contact sport!) or with technical fouls too.

Coaches try and manage their players' fouls throughout the game, so if your player gets more than one foul in the first quarter, picks up his third before half-time, gets his fourth early in the third etc etc, they'll sit that player for a while. As Greeky said, if a player is in foul trouble and the coach wants to leave him in, the opposition coach will go at that player trying to draw another foul. If the player gets his sixth, or gets two technicals, he's out of the game, tho u can bring on a sub to replace him. There was a bizarre Lakers game earlier this season where they only dressed about 7 players, a few got fouled out and in the end they had to invoke some rule  where one of the fouled out guys came back on! And they won. Will look that up for u, first time I ever hear of it.

Technicals are generally for dissent, but vary in severity depending how bad the offence, especially overly violent fouls etc. In general tho, they give away one free throw as well as possession of the ball. I really like the way it works and think football would be better with some kind of system like that.

Anyway, never got a letter or a text off u but am in Vegas from Weds so will be up for watching the Finals with u and any others up for some hoopies. Our portfolio looks great right now.

Interested in the value debate on Fred, think some of our NBA bets have been great value but lost, now hopefully we'll be on the right side of it. Still think this isn't a great season, no stand out side. Brooklyn really missed a trick, we backed them at 20s, coulda got them at 50s through the season and yet they beat the Heat in all four meetings this season, showed what they can do on the big occasion. Tbf to them, they lost their best player to injury but still....

Did u see the NBA draft? Will explain more about it when u see it, but Cleveland got the number one pick for the third time in 4 years, was less than a 2% chance of them getting it again. LeBron, he of Cleveland fame and a native of Cleveland, can also opt out of his contract this summer, or become a free agent next...I wonder

PS I lost all that once and had to retype. On returning from hols my laptop, which previously could survive a mighty 5 mins without being plugged in, now has a red X over the battery icon and says 'No battery is detected' and now just turns off if I unplug, or move the wire! Any ideas techie people/tika?!

Eventually your battery ends up dead, cannot be used without the adaptor. Sounds like yours is a dodo. You could get a PC check by Pcworld or the like or just get an all singing all dancing new one.

[BigAdz]

Ante post bet for Royal Ascot, which may be dead after tomorrow!

Adaay made an impressive debut at Newbury and is currently 10s for the Coventry.

Tomorrow he faces his rival for now second favourtism(the previous second fav got beat today in Ireland, and Adaays price hasn't moved....yet)at Yarmouth.

From all I am told I am expecting Adaay to win tomorrow and should shorten considerably for the Coventry.

As i said, if he doesn't deliver tomorrow that maybe it, but I am only hearing good things about Adaay and have had several reasonable bets today across the board at 10s.


Suggest £15 ew for Fred. 10s with Betty sportsbook and VC

[DungBeetle]

"I'd argue that Hector pulled off the same trick yesterday by opposing Federer who will be perceived as "being better", a perception that Hector argued was out of date then too"

I'm unclear on what is being said here - are you saying that you think Federer should have gone off yesterday as underdog against Gulbis?

[TightEnd]

Ante post bet for Royal Ascot, which may be dead after tomorrow!

Adaay made an impressive debut at Newbury and is currently 10s for the Coventry.

Tomorrow he faces his rival for now second favourtism(the previous second fav got beat today in Ireland, and Adaays price hasn't moved....yet)at Yarmouth.

From all I am told I am expecting Adaay to win tomorrow and should shorten considerably for the Coventry.

As i said, if he doesn't deliver tomorrow that maybe it, but I am only hearing good things about Adaay and have had several reasonable bets today across the board at 10s.


Suggest £15 ew for Fred. 10s with Betty sportsbook and VC

BV

 Coventry Stakes Adaay (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race)

 Odds: 10/1
Stake: 30.00
Possible Return:  217.50

£15 E/W 1/4 1,2,3

Couple of questions please (for my knowledge, not to query the bet)

Who trains Adaay?

Are all the 2yo hotpots for the Coventry out in the open, or are there unraced animals to take into account?

The Great war is 3/1 favourite. what did it win and why is it so short?

ta

[BigAdz]

Trained by Willie Haggas

Pretty much most entries will have been seen. They tend to have had one or two runs max. The trick is knowing who is/will improving the quickest!

The Great War is a "Listen" wonder horse, much hyped, impeccably bred etc, and won both his races so far, at Curragh and Tipperary(I think), but a reflective price of two good performances and it being a Coolmore Horse, no doubt.

[TightEnd]

Mr Tighty. I assume you've seen the rugby handicaps are out. Are we feeling -18 for the Kiwis is an absolute lump job? Apologies if I've missed this already.

I hesitate to reply, because i must be missing something

We know England are missing 26 players, 10 of them first choice from the six nations
We know they play at Auckland on Saturday, with no warm up game, and at the end of 60 match seasons for almost every player
We know they are down to third choice players across the front row
We know the fly half Burns has had a rough season at Gloucester
For England to have a chance they'll have to kick goals at 90%. Burns is a flair flyhalf not a Farrell type kicking metronome
New Zealand have not lost in their last 30 Tests at home.
They have not lost at Eden Park in Auckland, the venue for the first Test against England on Saturday, in 31 Tests.
They won all of their 14 Tests, home and away, in 2013

Probable team M Brown/C Pennell; M Yarde, M Tuilagi, B Twelvetrees, J May; F Burns, D Care; J Marler/M Mullan, D Ward/R Webber, D Wilson, J Launchbury, D Attwood, T Johnson, C Robshaw B Morgan.

So the market knows all this and the quote has been rock solid for 5 days at NZ -18

I think in fair weather this could and probably should be a 35-40 point NZ victory

Checking the weather, no problems

http://www.holiday-weather.com/auckland/forecast/

NZ are up for it. Dan Carter is on sabbatical but that apart its a first choice squad.  Richie McCaw, Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu and Ma’a Nonu have nearly 50 more caps between them than England’s 31-man advance party for the first Test.

The press down there are tearing into England for the cheek of turning up with half a squad. Mehrtens the former fly half is in the press saying "England are f**** piss to lose to"

Its an ideal chance for these NZ players to put down a marker ahead of the rugby world cup

I just can't understand -18. That makes me wary because I am not saying anything the price doesn't know

[redarmi]

No one on tft bets has got a sample size of bets anywhere near big enough to make solid conclusions about their long term ROI.  My view on the whole issue is these big liquidity main event market's are that they are tough to beat but they are beatable in certain spots otherwise the prices would be rock solid and never move from opening to closing show and this just doesn't happen in reality.  

The Froch Groves fight at the weekend was really interesting to watch on betfair 2 hours before the fight til the bell the prices were literally totally rock solid in the last 2 hours and barely moved a spot either way.  This is incredible for an event of this size and the sheer amount of once a year punters having a bet on the event potentially distorting the market but the prices held totally strong.  If you compare this to the Hatton Mayweather fight several years ago it was the total opposite when the sheer weight of mug cash for Hatton pushed Money to a quite insane price and the pros eventually stepped in late on to correct the market.

Can you remember Tyson v Bruno Arb?

Think it was 1/10 first show in the UK and about 1/6 the day before the fight and went off 4/11 Tyson at about 3 or 4 am just before it started, most of the UK punters just backed Bruno.No BF back then and no internet betting so was a mainly UK only market and was a huge arb between the UK market and Vegas Sportsbook prices on the off.


So back to the other point tho Skippy, these days that weight of UKcentric money isn't going to have that kind of affect anymore and the punters around the globe are a much bigger market.
I remember a line from Martin Kaymer after he won the USPGA when one of the comms ridiculously asked him why US players were faring so badly in recent majors and he replied 'well the US is a big place but the rest of the world is bigger' and that's the way the punting landscape has gone too for lots of UK firms on some events.

I think Greekway was talking about Basketball the other day, the amount of cash bet on Eurobasket by European punters with UK firms is incredible (honestly it is). Things like beach volleyball, handball, netball and table tennis turnover must be well over 75% overseas cash too.


Edit, i've just realised you might be offended as the fight was 1989 and you might be 30 years old ;o)

This is a good post.  Once upon a time you would regularly get overbroke books on something like the Ashes between English and Aussie books, now they are all absolutely the same.  You may occasionally find that these days especially if you can find a book that isn't online for example and is in a specific place.  Illegal US bookies are a good example of this but online the robots have taken over and soon bet markets into shape.  Now you have to be a bit cleverer to identify biases but they still exist.  For example the biggest markets often overrate individual teams or players.   The discussion today seems to be about tennis and it strikes me that the market is likely to overrate certain big name players in these events because a savvy odds compiler knows he will lay them in multples especially at certain price points so he is happy to get a couple of quid in the satchel on the rags from semi smart punters.  In my opinion both ends of the market can be profitable.  

One thing worth noting is that the industry goes through cycles.  When the internet first come around every firm went out and tried to hire odds compilers and offer different markets etc.  Invariably some of them were previously shop managers or young kids who were keen.  I was discussing with arbboy the other day how when I first started working in the industry for VC I was desperate to odds compile so I blagged it that I knew something about snooker as there was nobody else there that knew about snooker.  I knew nothing about snooker at all but they let me do the World Championships (bear in mind in those days we used to put up nfl lines on a weds and just leave them and weren't aware they had qualifying sessions in F1!!!!), I went top priced in the first round about Stephen Hendry at 1/7 when the rest of the world were 1/14 even though I am not sure I even knew who he was playing and he got beat and from then on I got given a chance at other stuff that I did have a clue about and went on from there but many were doing what I was doing and knew nothing about anything.  That has come full circle now.  The other day Stan James made 11 traders and odds compilers redundant because they have automated parts of their business and all of the buzz in the industry is about automation etc which, in many cases, is a by word for copying.  They aren't making their own prices anymore they are just copying other peoples blindly and the number of individual compilers is coming down which means that you will see more mistakes now but rather than just spotting that a price is wrong by looking at other prices you are going to have to be able to think them through yourself.  The first max bet I put up for Betting Emporium ( break -subscriptions still available for the world cup!!!) the other day appeared to be because an odds compiler had used the wrong distribution for a special market and a couple of other firms had just blindly followed  and I think we will see a lot more of that from now on especially given the talent on display at some of these firms.  It is definitely worth trying to figure out which firms have a clue and have their own compilers now.

[AlunB]

Mr Tighty. I assume you've seen the rugby handicaps are out. Are we feeling -18 for the Kiwis is an absolute lump job? Apologies if I've missed this already.

I hesitate to reply, because i must be missing something

We know England are missing 26 players, 10 of them first choice from the six nations
We know they play at Auckland on Saturday, with no warm up game, and at the end of 60 match seasons for almost every player
We know they are down to third choice players across the front row
We know the fly half Burns has had a rough season at Gloucester
For England to have a chance they'll have to kick goals at 90%. Burns is a flair flyhalf not a Farrell type kicking metronome
New Zealand have not lost in their last 30 Tests at home.
They have not lost at Eden Park in Auckland, the venue for the first Test against England on Saturday, in 31 Tests.
They won all of their 14 Tests, home and away, in 2013

Probable team M Brown/C Pennell; M Yarde, M Tuilagi, B Twelvetrees, J May; F Burns, D Care; J Marler/M Mullan, D Ward/R Webber, D Wilson, J Launchbury, D Attwood, T Johnson, C Robshaw B Morgan.

So the market knows all this and the quote has been rock solid for 5 days at NZ -18

I think in fair weather this could and probably should be a 35-40 point NZ victory

Checking the weather, no problems

http://www.holiday-weather.com/auckland/forecast/

NZ are up for it. Dan Carter is on sabbatical but that apart its a first choice squad.  Richie McCaw, Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu and Ma’a Nonu have nearly 50 more caps between them than England’s 31-man advance party for the first Test.

The press down there are tearing into England for the cheek of turning up with half a squad. Mehrtens the former fly half is in the press saying "England are f**** piss to lose to"

Its an ideal chance for these NZ players to put down a marker ahead of the rugby world cup

I just can't understand -18. That makes me wary because I am not saying anything the price doesn't know

Liverpool effect? Not a hugely liquid market and most punters will be betting with their heart and not their head here? Or maybe they back the England defensive system to overcome all obstacles and not ship many points. That is a possibility. But I agree. It's odd. Even average scores over past 10 years favours a higher handicap.

[TightEnd]

Mr Tighty. I assume you've seen the rugby handicaps are out. Are we feeling -18 for the Kiwis is an absolute lump job? Apologies if I've missed this already.

I hesitate to reply, because i must be missing something

We know England are missing 26 players, 10 of them first choice from the six nations
We know they play at Auckland on Saturday, with no warm up game, and at the end of 60 match seasons for almost every player
We know they are down to third choice players across the front row
We know the fly half Burns has had a rough season at Gloucester
For England to have a chance they'll have to kick goals at 90%. Burns is a flair flyhalf not a Farrell type kicking metronome
New Zealand have not lost in their last 30 Tests at home.
They have not lost at Eden Park in Auckland, the venue for the first Test against England on Saturday, in 31 Tests.
They won all of their 14 Tests, home and away, in 2013

Probable team M Brown/C Pennell; M Yarde, M Tuilagi, B Twelvetrees, J May; F Burns, D Care; J Marler/M Mullan, D Ward/R Webber, D Wilson, J Launchbury, D Attwood, T Johnson, C Robshaw B Morgan.

So the market knows all this and the quote has been rock solid for 5 days at NZ -18

I think in fair weather this could and probably should be a 35-40 point NZ victory

Checking the weather, no problems

http://www.holiday-weather.com/auckland/forecast/

NZ are up for it. Dan Carter is on sabbatical but that apart its a first choice squad.  Richie McCaw, Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu and Ma’a Nonu have nearly 50 more caps between them than England’s 31-man advance party for the first Test.

The press down there are tearing into England for the cheek of turning up with half a squad. Mehrtens the former fly half is in the press saying "England are f**** piss to lose to"

Its an ideal chance for these NZ players to put down a marker ahead of the rugby world cup

I just can't understand -18. That makes me wary because I am not saying anything the price doesn't know

Liverpool effect? Not a hugely liquid market and most punters will be betting with their heart and not their head here? Or maybe they back the England defensive system to overcome all obstacles and not ship many points. That is a possibility. But I agree. It's odd. Even average scores over past 10 years favours a higher handicap.

the England defensive system is strong, and when France went there last summer they only lost the first test 23-13 using exactly the same blitz system. got whopped 30-0 in the second test using it too

the system relies on everyone working together though, with a few new players to slot in and no warm up match it must be difficult to get thwe whole line in tune off the back of a few training sessions. Lancaster has even talked about toned down training sessions this week for fear of losing another player or two

this isn't twickenham in the autumn where nz arrive at the end of their season, the english players are fresh, first choice side, home crowd etc etc..its the exact reverse

[AlunB]

Mr Tighty. I assume you've seen the rugby handicaps are out. Are we feeling -18 for the Kiwis is an absolute lump job? Apologies if I've missed this already.

I hesitate to reply, because i must be missing something

We know England are missing 26 players, 10 of them first choice from the six nations
We know they play at Auckland on Saturday, with no warm up game, and at the end of 60 match seasons for almost every player
We know they are down to third choice players across the front row
We know the fly half Burns has had a rough season at Gloucester
For England to have a chance they'll have to kick goals at 90%. Burns is a flair flyhalf not a Farrell type kicking metronome
New Zealand have not lost in their last 30 Tests at home.
They have not lost at Eden Park in Auckland, the venue for the first Test against England on Saturday, in 31 Tests.
They won all of their 14 Tests, home and away, in 2013

Probable team M Brown/C Pennell; M Yarde, M Tuilagi, B Twelvetrees, J May; F Burns, D Care; J Marler/M Mullan, D Ward/R Webber, D Wilson, J Launchbury, D Attwood, T Johnson, C Robshaw B Morgan.

So the market knows all this and the quote has been rock solid for 5 days at NZ -18

I think in fair weather this could and probably should be a 35-40 point NZ victory

Checking the weather, no problems

http://www.holiday-weather.com/auckland/forecast/

NZ are up for it. Dan Carter is on sabbatical but that apart its a first choice squad.  Richie McCaw, Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu and Ma’a Nonu have nearly 50 more caps between them than England’s 31-man advance party for the first Test.

The press down there are tearing into England for the cheek of turning up with half a squad. Mehrtens the former fly half is in the press saying "England are f**** piss to lose to"

Its an ideal chance for these NZ players to put down a marker ahead of the rugby world cup

I just can't understand -18. That makes me wary because I am not saying anything the price doesn't know

Liverpool effect? Not a hugely liquid market and most punters will be betting with their heart and not their head here? Or maybe they back the England defensive system to overcome all obstacles and not ship many points. That is a possibility. But I agree. It's odd. Even average scores over past 10 years favours a higher handicap.

the England defensive system is strong, and when France went there last summer they only lost the first test 23-13 using exactly the same blitz system. got whopped 30-0 in the second test using it too

the system relies on everyone working together though, with a few new players to slot in and no warm up match it must be difficult to get thwe whole line in tune off the back of a few training sessions. Lancaster has even talked about toned down training sessions this week for fear of losing another player or two

this isn't twickenham in the autumn where nz arrive at the end of their season, the english players are fresh, first choice side, home crowd etc etc..its the exact reverse

Lump?

[TightEnd]

Probably

You can tell I am non-plussed

[arbboy]

sometimes you can ask too many questions 'what am i missing etc etc?' just get stuck in imo and have a lump on -18.  What's the worse case spot that can happen?  NZ are never going to go off -12 are they? 

[AlunB]

Probably

You can tell I am non-plussed

Haha! Indeed. It's a tarp!

[Doobs]

Tighty.  UKIP have drifted today off the back of the polls.  Now Conservatives are best 2/9.  If you are unhappy with the bet, you could try getting better on the illiquid Betfair market.  Maybe put up 1.17 Conservatives on Betfair?  It is illiquid but somebody will possibly be tempted.  Or you could just take the 4/1 on offer, though that seems a bit like hedging at the wrong price to me.

[TightEnd]

Tighty.  UKIP have drifted today off the back of the polls.  Now Conservatives are best 2/9.  If you are unhappy with the bet, you could try getting better on the illiquid Betfair market.  Maybe put up 1.17 Conservatives on Betfair?  It is illiquid but somebody will possibly be tempted.  Or you could just take the 4/1 on offer, though that seems a bit like hedging at the wrong price to me.

Hello. Not unhappy with it, just facing the unenviable task of reporting on a by-election in a daily report with a lot of "noise" around from commentators and the noise was calling it to be closing up

today's 4pm Ashcroft poll was much better news for the bet

"A poll by @LordAshcroft for #Newark by-election shows CON 42%, UKIP 27%, LAB 20%, LDEM 6%. #Conservatives on a 15% lead to #UKIP"

and a punter was reported to have £35,000 at 2/7 Conservative

these factors shortened the price