Tips for Tikay

[FUN4FRASER]

Really Fancy Uruguay Strong tonight as Costa Rica are woeful

Suarez not starting but could feature at some stage hence the stand out price 1-2 Corals  ( 1.48 betfair )

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/uruguay-v-costa-rica/winner

Recomend  £100 @1-2 and quick as pretty sure price will go

[arbboy]

I can't remember ever seeing a football game priced up like the England game today

Eng 2/1
Draw 2/1
Italy 2/1

This as rare as I think it is ?

It's pretty rare.  I have seen it before but was actually thinking this morning which game was the last time i saw it.  Two things have to happen together for a football match to be an effective 3 way coin flip.  Firstly the two teams obviously have to be considered of equal ability on a neutral ground (like tonight's game).  This obviously happens a lot more often than the second condition which is to have an extremely low goal expectation in the game of around 2 goals rather than the more standard 2.4-2.6 goals which is considered the norm to force the draw as short as 2/1.

[FUN4FRASER]

I can't remember ever seeing a football game priced up like the England game today

Eng 2/1
Draw 2/1
Italy 2/1

This as rare as I think it is ?

100 % book Ray but ofc thats the best prices available

Sometimes happens on high profile matches where  bookies  are keen to promote their brand  with a stand out price (s)

[Eddycadub]

Ladbrokes world cup boost today is Cavani 6/1 FGS if you bet between kick off of the colombia game and the first goal, thoughts on that?

[DropTheHammer]

Ladbrokes world cup boost today is Cavani 6/1 FGS if you bet between kick off of the colombia game and the first goal, thoughts on that?

I'm on that if I've got 3G where I watch it!

[mulhuzz]

I can't remember ever seeing a football game priced up like the England game today

Eng 2/1
Draw 2/1
Italy 2/1

This as rare as I think it is ?

It's pretty rare.  I have seen it before but was actually thinking this morning which game was the last time i saw it.  Two things have to happen together for a football match to be an effective 3 way coin flip.  Firstly the two teams obviously have to be considered of equal ability on a neutral ground (like tonight's game).  This obviously happens a lot more often than the second condition which is to have an extremely low goal expectation in the game of around 2 goals rather than the more standard 2.4-2.6 goals which is considered the norm to force the draw as short as 2/1.

could you imagine ever seeing this for a game on a non-neutral ground?

[arbboy]

I can't remember ever seeing a football game priced up like the England game today

Eng 2/1
Draw 2/1
Italy 2/1

This as rare as I think it is ?

It's pretty rare.  I have seen it before but was actually thinking this morning which game was the last time i saw it.  Two things have to happen together for a football match to be an effective 3 way coin flip.  Firstly the two teams obviously have to be considered of equal ability on a neutral ground (like tonight's game).  This obviously happens a lot more often than the second condition which is to have an extremely low goal expectation in the game of around 2 goals rather than the more standard 2.4-2.6 goals which is considered the norm to force the draw as short as 2/1.

could you imagine ever seeing this for a game on a non-neutral ground?

Yes its more likely because most games are not played at a neutral ground.  If it happened under 'normal' circumstances where it was a league game with one team at home and one away it would simply mean the advantage of playing at home would be directly countered by the increased ability level of the away team to balance the two out and effectively make the game a coin flip still.  The goal expectation of the game would still need to be as low as tonight's game however to force the draw price as low as 2/1.

[peejaytwo]

Wouldn't know what to back but paddy is paying 4 places in the 3.30 sandown.
Only ten runners but still competitive, I'll be in a shop using BETFAIR place terms as my guide

[TightEnd]

Ladbrokes world cup boost today is Cavani 6/1 FGS if you bet between kick off of the colombia game and the first goal, thoughts on that?

I'm on that if I've got 3G where I watch it!

i'll try and do that if I am able

4-1 generally elsewhere, Suarez missing/Forlan pensionable. 6-1 has to be a go-er

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T2.

I may have a try scorer bet for the St Helens match but I want to make sure he is starting, so it will be put up later if it is a goer.

If I had known how many people were going to be missing from the Castleford team last night I would never have put that suggestion up.

[TightEnd]

Really Fancy Uruguay Strong tonight as Costa Rica are woeful

Suarez not starting but could feature at some stage hence the stand out price 1-2 Corals  ( 1.48 betfair )

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/uruguay-v-costa-rica/winner

Recomend  £100 @1-2 and quick as pretty sure price will go

ugh, hate having to ask the questions

what do we know that means that 1-2 is mispriced? surely its an efficient price?

are we suggesting this should be 1.25 or 1/4?

what do we know about costa rica?

(sorry) (no objections to a short one in principal, but it doesn't strike me as a really really sure thing to be able to take 1.5)

there you can lump on now

[DropTheHammer]

If you have a Betfair Sportsbook account they are currently way out in front with the price of Yaya T scoring anytime at 5.5.

Everything I am reading is that he is fit to start but you could wait until after the England match to place this bet

As an additional sweetner, Betfair Sportsbook are offering free bets on losing bets of up to £25 if certain 'triggers' are met. I think this will be a high-scoring affair with IC strong in attack and weak in defence so suggest the refund trigger to be Drogba scoring first (If Drog doesn't start then it will revert to both teams scoring and Japan winning).

What do people think of a small wager on this? If you do it you must click through, choosing your trigger free bet option.

[FUN4FRASER]

Really Fancy Uruguay Strong tonight as Costa Rica are woeful

Suarez not starting but could feature at some stage hence the stand out price 1-2 Corals  ( 1.48 betfair )

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/uruguay-v-costa-rica/winner

Recomend  £100 @1-2 and quick as pretty sure price will go

ugh, hate having to ask the questions

what do we know that means that 1-2 is mispriced? surely its an efficient price?

are we suggesting this should be 1.25 or 1/4?

what do we know about costa rica?

(sorry) (no objections to a short one in principal, but it doesn't strike me as a really really sure thing to be able to take 1.5)

there you can lump on now

 

[arbboy]

Really Fancy Uruguay Strong tonight as Costa Rica are woeful

Suarez not starting but could feature at some stage hence the stand out price 1-2 Corals  ( 1.48 betfair )

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/uruguay-v-costa-rica/winner

Recomend  £100 @1-2 and quick as pretty sure price will go

ugh, hate having to ask the questions

what do we know that means that 1-2 is mispriced? surely its an efficient price?

are we suggesting this should be 1.25 or 1/4?

what do we know about costa rica?

(sorry) (no objections to a short one in principal, but it doesn't strike me as a really really sure thing to be able to take 1.5)

there you can lump on now

I think its worthy of a small interest (£20 or £30 at fred's relative bet sizing) at 1/2 comm free simply because over £1m has already been done on bf has been done at 1.48 or shorter.  The edge it would appear that we have is small though and the £100 recommendation i assume is based on the actual price of the selection (the old school shorter the price the more we bet) rather than the actual relative edge we have in the bet which is small and hence stakes imo should be kept relatively in line with the edge we have.

[TightEnd]

If you have a Betfair Sportsbook account they are currently way out in front with the price of Yaya T scoring anytime at 5.5.

Everything I am reading is that he is fit to start but you could wait until after the England match to place this bet

As an additional sweetner, Betfair Sportsbook are offering free bets on losing bets o £25 if certain 'triggers' are met. I think this will be a high-scoring affair with IC strong in attack and weak in defence so suggest the refund trigger to be Drogba scoring first (If Drog doesn't start then it will revert to both teams scoring and Japan winning).

What do people think of a small wager on this? If you do it you must click through, choosing your trigger free bet option.

Do you Know if Yaya Plays  advanced for IC or will he hold more to counter Honda/Okazaki etc?