Tips for Tikay

[Nico29]

Coral have a few world cup enhanced offers everyday for a max of £20.

I can only get a tenner on each time(fred prob will be similar) but still think they are worth doing.

Most of them are arbs in liquid markets and therefore are almost always +ev bets.

Today I like two of the three on offer.

Nigeria to win to nil@11/4-is 3.4 to lay on exchange.

Germany to win and btts@7-2. This is a general 5-2 shot and people are asking for 7-2 minus comish on the exchange.

Today's ladbrokes £10 offer is Germany@8-1 on the outright, from 5pm-till the first goal is scored in that game. Fred will be offered a pound from previous experiences I gather, but def worth it for those that can. (7.4 to lay on exchange)

Can both of these be done in shop or just online?

I gen have no idea.

But that's def worth looking into!

[DungBeetle]

To further muddy the water in the Ghana v USA game apparently the conditions are expected to be dreadful.  Worse than Mexico v Cameroon.

[tikay]

Tighty,

You wrote.....


Superwomble placed the Paddy Power bet £10 at 60-1 AN Other MVP


Did Womble place the bet on Fred's behalf?

If so, I must owe him £10. Let me know please, & I'll sort it pronto.

He did yes

see

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.78123

OK, thanks.

Am just off to bed here, but I'll write to him in the morning, or, if he sends me his Bank Details in the interim, I will pay him.

PP have settled this as a loser I'm afraid. As for settling up you already did so tikay thanks.

I did?

Happy days!

Thanks anyway Mr Womble. Next time we'll get them.

[tikay]

Actually, going to rebuff myself on the Golden Boot market.

The potential downside is not massive, but the potential upside wouldn't be great either.

I agree. £800? Sheesh.

Ridiculous suggestion in the first place. 

[Chompy]

Hughes has been cut by freesixfive to 3/1 and the only 7/2 left is with Hills. Wouldn't put anyone off going in again.

It's now possible to lay at around 3/1 but I suggest we wait. Listen Jnr is on the drift and the market should straighten itself out in the morning. Still have no idea why Ryan is favourite.

Hughes also has a decent book on Wednesday, including Tiggy Wiggy @ 5/1 and Sky Lantern at 3/1.

We also have £200 on Frankie @ 1/2 to ride a RA winner. Treve is around 4/6 on Wednesday but he has chances tomorrow too, including a 6/1 shot in the Cov.

[tikay]

Some questions for arbboy.

Think I am right in saying these bets were on your recommendation.....

williamhill   may-2014   basketball   NBA - Championship Winner 2014   san antonio spurs    7/2   50
sportingbet   jun-2014   basketball   San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat - Series Result    Spurs 4-1   7/1   25
sportingbet   jun-2014   basketball   San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat - Series Result    Spurs 4-1   5/1   50

This ignores the MVP bets, the saver on Heat, & one or two others.

It's very rare, almost unique, for us to press twice, but we did exactly that.

I'm interested in how & on what basis we felt able to do these - was it based on NBA knowledge, an understanding of the maths, or because we felt the traders had missed something important? (In this case, the home/away rotation changing from previous Finals).

I'm not trying to bloke smoke up your ample rear end, but given the average size of Fred's bets since Day One is just over £30 I think, it's not every day we make over £600, & I don't take these things for granted, & am keen to understand the thought process better.

Yesterday was one of the best Fred days ever. We've only ever had 5 or 6 spots like that which won, & ought to savour them.

[claypole]

First time I've been into local Hills for a long time; thoroughly depressing. 4 fbots, all in ise with guys looking like they're ready to slip wrist, then try to have £200 on Hughes, phones trough and the guy behind counter says "never seen him
Before" and I get offered £100. Tempted to try and slip it in some multiples to try and wind them up

[mulhuzz]

some of this German drift is definitely because Manu Neuer picked up a knock in training. He has a shoulder injury, but told Bild.de (like the Sun, red top):

'I'm fit, I got through everything and I'm in a good condition

Additionally, Benny Höwedes is expected to start at LB. He's not a natural LB and is playing there because Durm is too inexperienced. Boateng is expected to play RB, which seems a strange decision by Löw (I'd have thought he'd have gone with Boateng LB, Lahm RB, but he seems to want Lahm in DM which ofc he is great at as well...).

If Ronaldo and Coecentrao (sp?) double up then that could be an interesting area for Portgual to exploit.

Finally, Germany will line up with Poldi on the left and Özil through the middle as a false 9. Klose doesn't make the team.

The German drift looks acceptable to me. Their strength in depth, given the injuries they have had going into the tournament means they are starting with a FAR FAR stronger 11 than what they can offer from the bench and this hasn't been the case in previous tournaments. For example, Höwedes wouldn't have gotten too near the team (at left back anyway) in a perfect world, and Schweini isn't expected to start the match.

Predicted DE line up:

Neuer
Boateng Hummels Mertesacker Höwedes
Lahm Khedira
Müller Kroos Podolski
Özil

[Nico29]

Cheers Mullhuzz, nicely written piece that mate.

Still doesn't put me off the Germans at evens, I really like that line up, esp Podolski playing-he's looked super sharp as of late.

Portugal's squad just looks weak overall to me, Postiga still involved-was he ever decent?, Almeida-biggest and slowest lump I have seen in years.

Also those like Nani can't be playing with great confidence right now after being a water carrier all season.

Ronaldo is quoted as admitting he isn't 100%, the keeper and Lahm are apparently both fine now and I just think the market is over estimating Ronaldo's impact and under estimating Germany's strengths.

All about opinions though and I am still hoping i'll get put off, otherwise I am going to have a huge bet on the Germans at evens, and being a nit that scares me!

[arbboy]

First time I've been into local Hills for a long time; thoroughly depressing. 4 fbots, all in ise with guys looking like they're ready to slip wrist, then try to have £200 on Hughes, phones trough and the guy behind counter says "never seen him
Before" and I get offered £100. Tempted to try and slip it in some multiples to try and wind them up

I had the same 'never seen him' muttering under the managers breathe yday in a shop when I asked and got a monkey no problem after the phone call. On way to London now on train and going to try and get the same on again in the hills at Euston station as they don't appear to be in a rush to cut the 7/2 even though you got knocked back.

[mulhuzz]

If I can offer a recommend:

Toni Kroos has lot* to prove and he's the kind of character that will want to show his worth in this game. He has battled really really hard to get into the starting 11 ahead of Schweini and appears to have held off a late challenge from Schürrle as well and he likely to take aim from distance the first chance he gets.

He's 17/1 with wagerreasonably (BF) which I think is too big. I think the 14s offered by most others is closer.

Recommend £10 small interest on Kroos FGS once line ups are confirmed.

[arbboy]

Some questions for arbboy.

Think I am right in saying these bets were on your recommendation.....

williamhill   may-2014   basketball   NBA - Championship Winner 2014   san antonio spurs    7/2   50
sportingbet   jun-2014   basketball   San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat - Series Result    Spurs 4-1   7/1   25
sportingbet   jun-2014   basketball   San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat - Series Result    Spurs 4-1   5/1   50

This ignores the MVP bets, the saver on Heat, & one or two others.

It's very rare, almost unique, for us to press twice, but we did exactly that.

I'm interested in how & on what basis we felt able to do these - was it based on NBA knowledge, an understanding of the maths, or because we felt the traders had missed something important? (In this case, the home/away rotation changing from previous Finals).

I'm not trying to bloke smoke up your ample rear end, but given the average size of Fred's bets since Day One is just over £30 I think, it's not every day we make over £600, & I don't take these things for granted, & am keen to understand the thought process better.

Yesterday was one of the best Fred days ever. We've only ever had 5 or 6 spots like that which won, & ought to savour them.

Just typed a long reply to this on iPad on train and lost it whilst sending which is annoying so will re type later tonight when I get time to avoid it happening again

[arbboy]

Chompy what's views on backing Hannon at 7/2 as we'll for top trainer ? Is it better or worse than Hughes top jockey. Smooth variance a bit by splitting stakes between the two?

[DungBeetle]

If I can offer a recommend:

Toni Kroos has lot* to prove and he's the kind of character that will want to show his worth in this game. He has battled really really hard to get into the starting 11 ahead of Schweini and appears to have held off a late challenge from Schürrle as well and he likely to take aim from distance the first chance he gets.

He's 17/1 with wagerreasonably (BF) which I think is too big. I think the 14s offered by most others is closer.

Recommend £10 small interest on Kroos FGS once line ups are confirmed.

Cheers Mull - sounds like a decent interest - have bought Mr Kroos goal mins at 10.

[mulhuzz]

confirmed line ups:

Germany: Neuer,Boateng,  Mertesacker,  Hummels, Howedes, Lahm, Khedira, Ozil, Kroos, Gotze, Muller.

Portugal: Patricio, Alves, Pepe, Veloso, Coentrao, Ronaldo (c), Moutinho, Almeida, Meireles, Nani, Pereira

Having talked Poldi up all week, Löw leaves him out for Götze.

Interesting decision and means I like Kroos even more for fgs. poldi has been involved in (assisted or scored) 5 of the last 7 goals Germany have scored and he's been left out. Someone will have to take up that responsibility and I think Götze, stunning talent as he is, will be a little out of place out on the left.

edit: accordingly many of the firms who had Kroos at 14s now go . 14s still available in a few spots and 83/5 on BF still available but don't think it'll last.